If All Ladies Deliver in Olympics SP, Who Comprises Top 6?

[tony]

If all of the top ladies skate clean, solid short programs in Pyeongchang, which 6 make the final long program group?

 

[snoopy]

In order of appearance:

1. Zagitova
2. Kostner
3. Medvedeva
4. Daleman
5. Osmond
6. Sotskova

 

[muffinplus]

Zagitova, Medvedeva, Kostner, Miyahara, Sotskova, Osmond

 

[blue_idealist]

Zagitova, Medvedeva, Kostner, Miyahara, Sotskova, Osmond

Same, except I had Sakamoto instead of Miyahara.

 

[alchemy void]

I think the top 3 is clearly: Osmond, Zagitova, Medvedeva

And 4-6 is clearly: Kostner, Daleman, Sakamoto

If the Japanese fed is smart, they need to be pushing HARD for Sakamoto to be JPN #1 over Miyahara. I know Miyahara is beloved on FSU, but Sakamoto is a much better bet for a medal than Miyahara, not just in the future, but NOW.
Miyahara's jumps and relative lack of power are not likely to improve. Sakamoto really has it all, and I really think she could really challenge (insert Eteri skater of your choice here) next season.

Nagasu could sneak in over Daleman with clean, rotated jumps (3axel!). But I'm too lazy right now to compare TES and base value.

 

[caseyedwards]

Zagitova, Medvedeva, Kostner, Miyahara, Sotskova, Osmond

TOtally agree!!!

 

[Lovemyvike]

I feel like Zhenya is getting her top spot back. She does not like second place

 

[MR-FAN]

Zagitova, Osmond, Medvedeva and Kostner have all received SP scores in the high 70s when clean, so that’s a given. Flawed SP by Miyahara has beaten clean SPs by Sakamoto and Tennel this season, and when Miyahara and Sotskova went clean at the GPF, Miyahara came on top, so Miyahara makes the final flight. Last spot I think is between Sotskova and Nagasu. Combine likely conservative marks for Russia’s #3 and Nagasu’s 3-axel, and I think Nagasu would get the higher score

ETA: Daleman’s clean SPs have been scoring in the low 70s this season, so I think she also misses the cut.

 

[briancoogaert]

If everyone goes perfectly clean (no UR...), I'd say for sure : Zagitova, Medvedeva, Kostner and Osmond.
Then I'd say Miyahara and Tennell.

 

[fgrsk8ingfan]

I feel like Zhenya is getting her top spot back. She does not like second place

Hope so, I love her.

 

[fgrsk8ingfan]

In order of appearance:

1. Zagitova
2. Kostner
3. Medvedeva
4. Daleman
5. Osmond
6. Sotskova

Really Kostner over Medvedeva?

 

[fgrsk8ingfan]

I believe if they all skate clean the judges will be Evgenia first then Alina after that it's anyones guess. No one put Nagasu in top 6. If she skates clean, which means she will land a 3axel, in the SP no one thinks she will be in top 6?

 

[tony]

Really Kostner over Medvedeva?

Did you not read the first line in the post you quoted?

 

[snoopy]

I listed them in order of appearance on the poll list.

Really Kostner over Medvedeva?

l

 

[rfisher]

Med, Zag, Kostner, miyahara, osmond and Sotskova

 

[Frida80]

I think the top 3 is clearly: Osmond, Zagitova, Medvedeva

And 4-6 is clearly: Kostner, Daleman, Sakamoto

If the Japanese fed is smart, they need to be pushing HARD for Sakamoto to be JPN #1 over Miyahara. I know Miyahara is beloved on FSU, but Sakamoto is a much better bet for a medal than Miyahara, not just in the future, but NOW.
Miyahara's jumps and relative lack of power are not likely to improve. Sakamoto really has it all, and I really think she could really challenge (insert Eteri skater of your choice here) next season.

Nagasu could sneak in over Daleman with clean, rotated jumps (3axel!). But I'm too lazy right now to compare TES and base value.

My estimate for a clean program for Mirai is 76-78.

 

[berthesghost]

My estimate for a clean program for Mirai is 76-78.

my estimate is lower but that’s irrelevant to this thread as the question was if they all went clean. I just don’t see how Mirai can land a clean 3x and end up 7th or lower. I also assume “clean” means hitting your levels on spins and ft not just landed jumps. The PCS question is up in the air. Is this a clean but robotic Mirai (‘16 worlds), or an “on” (‘10 worlds sp) Mirai?

 

[Frida80]

my estimate is lower but that’s irrelevant to this thread as the question was if they all went clean. I just don’t see how Mirai can land a clean 3x and end up 7th or lower. I also assume “clean” means hitting your levels on spins and ft not just landed jumps. The PCS question is up in the air. Is this a clean but robotic Mirai (‘16 worlds), or an “on” (‘10 worlds sp) Mirai?

My assumption is she’ll get a PCS similar to nationals. That was only 31. Last year she got as high as 33. This season she’s been at the 30 range unclean. I think they were very conservative at nationals. If she nails a clean triple axel, the crowd will go nuts. It’s the Olympics, so they inflate your score anyway. So I am saying conservatively, that her PCS will be 32-33 range if she is clean. Her TES with a clean axel should be 43-45. That means a range of 75 to 78.

 

[meggonzo]

I think for sure Medvedeva, Zagitova, Kostner, and Osmond, then it's harder to pick after that.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Zag, Medev, Kostner (they throw PCS at her and SP is her stronger), Satoko, Osmond and Im saying Kaori.

They wont throw PCS at Mirai or Bradie but Daleman and Sotskova will be right there.

The clout of newly crowned 4CC will help Kaori's PCS now.

 

[RoseRed]

For me, expected scores when clean (and they could all be a touch higher with Olympic inflation):
1-2. Evgenia and Alina - 80.something
3. Carolina - 78
4. Kaetlyn - 77
5. Mirai - 75-76
6. Satoko - 74

7. Maria - 73-74
8. Gabby - 72-73 (she got 72 when she wasn't National champion or WBM)
9. Kaori - 72-73 (she was in the 71 range at 4CC, so an extra 1-1.5 rep boost)
10. Bradie - 69 (she was around 67 before the National title)

Mirai was the hardest to predict because the others have all skated a clean SP this season. I looked at her highest international score, 65.17. She had a -0.86 on her 3A, so I gave her +0.86. She lost 1.30 in BV on the 3F-3T<. She had -0.70 on it, so I gave her +0.70 (that's what that combo got in the FS). She lost 1.98 in BV on the 3Lz< in the bonus. It also had a ! call and -1.60 in GOE. I gave her neutral GOE since she got that in the FS on a 3Lz in the bonus. I left her with the level 3 step sequence because that's what she's got all season. So that's 8 points more in tech, bringing her up to 73.17. Maybe the GOE could be a bit higher, so I'll say 74. Then a bit of a PCs increase. So I guess 76 max.

But I also think Mirai is the least likely to be totally clean, because that number is relying on no URs, no edge calls, no negative GOE at all.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

For me, expected scores when clean (and they could all be a touch higher with Olympic inflation):
1-2. Evgenia and Alina - 80.something
3. Carolina - 78
4. Kaetlyn - 77
5. Mirai - 75-76
6. Satoko - 74

7. Maria - 73-74
8. Kaori - 72-73 (she was in the 71 range at 4CC, so an extra 1-1.5 rep boost)
9. Bradie - 69 (she was around 67 before the National title)

Mirai was the hardest to predict because the others have all skated a clean SP this season. I looked at her highest international score, 65.17. She had a -0.86 on her 3A, so I gave her +0.86. She lost 1.30 in BV on the 3F-3T<. She had -0.70 on it, so I gave her +0.70 (that's what that combo got in the FS). She lost 1.98 in BV on the 3Lz< in the bonus. It also had a ! call and -1.60 in GOE. I gave her neutral GOE since she got that in the FS on a 3Lz in the bonus. I left her with the level 3 step sequence because that's what she's got all season. So that's 8 points more in tech, bringing her up to 73.17. Maybe the GOE could be a bit higher, so I'll say 74. Then a bit of a PCs increase. So I guess 76 max.

But I also think Mirai is the least likely to be totally clean, because that number is relying on no URs, no edge calls, no negative GOE at all.

GREAT analogy,

Mine is the same as yours with the Mirai exception. Just have NO idea how that will down with her. If she lands clean 3 axel in SP and all the jumps are clean I have no idea what they will give for PCS....

 

[shady82]

Top two Russians, Kostner, and Osmond are heads-and-shoulders above the rest as top 4. 5 and 6 are most likely Nagasu with a clean triple axel and Miyahara, provided the technical caller does not call any URs. Hopefully that's the case.

What will be interesting to read on FSU is what YOU think the top 6 clean should be?
The top 6 remain same for me. Medvedeva, Osmond, and Kostner (bunched very tightly), followed by Nagasu, Miyahara, and then Zagitova.

 

[rfisher]

if they all skate clean, Zagitova wins given she has the highest bv of all the skaters

 

[Frida80]

For me, expected scores when clean (and they could all be a touch higher with Olympic inflation):
1-2. Evgenia and Alina - 80.something
3. Carolina - 78
4. Kaetlyn - 77
5. Mirai - 75-76
6. Satoko - 74

7. Maria - 73-74
8. Kaori - 72-73 (she was in the 71 range at 4CC, so an extra 1-1.5 rep boost)
9. Bradie - 69 (she was around 67 before the National title)

Mirai was the hardest to predict because the others have all skated a clean SP this season. I looked at her highest international score, 65.17. She had a -0.86 on her 3A, so I gave her +0.86. She lost 1.30 in BV on the 3F-3T<. She had -0.70 on it, so I gave her +0.70 (that's what that combo got in the FS). She lost 1.98 in BV on the 3Lz< in the bonus. It also had a ! call and -1.60 in GOE. I gave her neutral GOE since she got that in the FS on a 3Lz in the bonus. I left her with the level 3 step sequence because that's what she's got all season. So that's 8 points more in tech, bringing her up to 73.17. Maybe the GOE could be a bit higher, so I'll say 74. Then a bit of a PCs increase. So I guess 76 max.

But I also think Mirai is the least likely to be totally clean, because that number is relying on no URs, no edge calls, no negative GOE at all.

I think you’re scores are a bit low for everyone. The Olympics loves to inflate scores for clean programs. Especially for the later groups. It’s just the custom. Depending on the crowd reaction, all these scores can add a few more points over their SB.

With Mirai, I don’t look at SB but skatingscores.com to see where she would be judged if her elements were at their best. She’s changed the Lutz to a loop, which gets a good score for her. But a 3A is tricky, because the GOE multiplier is higher for a 3A vs. other triples. So I have to look at the men’s to get a good idea where she would be scored with a clean 3A. It definately wont be Hanyu quality, but it should at least score around the same as average men. Though, this is the Olympics and this will be the only 3A attempted here. Mirai isn’t in medal contention, so they should feel less pressure to deflate her scores. I’ll probably do this for all the top skaters, but this is what I have for Mirai. BV+GoE= total element score


3A — 8.5+1= 9.5
3F+3T — 9.6+1= 10.6
FCSp4 — 3.2 + .8 = 4
3Lo — 5.61 + 1.3 = 6.91
CCoSp4 — 3.5 +1.2 = 4.7
Stsq4 — 3.9 + .8 = 4.7
Lsp4 — 2.7+1.3 = 4

All together, that equals 44.41 for her TES. For her PCS, she’s scored as high as 33 in PCS. But the 3A takes away from her transitions and choreography. So if the crowd is behind her, I expect at least a 32 in PCS. An average of 8, while leaving room for the next competitors. All together that’s a 76.41 and that’s me being conservative. Her elements have been scored higher than what I listed here. I held back because she’s in the 2nd to last group instead of the last group. Theoretically she could even get +2 on her 3A, since when she lands it looks very impressive.

Of course, if they want to keep the medal favorites in contention, they’ll decrease the GoE on her elements and keep her PCS at 31. It all depends on how the judges are feeling that day.

But this is only theoretical. With Mirai and all US ladies I’ll be happy for SB and happy faces. Let them enjoy this moment. They’ve worked really hard and dreamed about this moment for years. No need to stress out a possible score.

 

[meggonzo]

For me, expected scores when clean (and they could all be a touch higher with Olympic inflation):
1-2. Evgenia and Alina - 80.something
3. Carolina - 78
4. Kaetlyn - 77
5. Mirai - 75-76
6. Satoko - 74

7. Maria - 73-74
8. Kaori - 72-73 (she was in the 71 range at 4CC, so an extra 1-1.5 rep boost)
9. Bradie - 69 (she was around 67 before the National title)

Mirai was the hardest to predict because the others have all skated a clean SP this season. I looked at her highest international score, 65.17. She had a -0.86 on her 3A, so I gave her +0.86. She lost 1.30 in BV on the 3F-3T<. She had -0.70 on it, so I gave her +0.70 (that's what that combo got in the FS). She lost 1.98 in BV on the 3Lz< in the bonus. It also had a ! call and -1.60 in GOE. I gave her neutral GOE since she got that in the FS on a 3Lz in the bonus. I left her with the level 3 step sequence because that's what she's got all season. So that's 8 points more in tech, bringing her up to 73.17. Maybe the GOE could be a bit higher, so I'll say 74. Then a bit of a PCs increase. So I guess 76 max.

But I also think Mirai is the least likely to be totally clean, because that number is relying on no URs, no edge calls, no negative GOE at all.

You forgot Daleman. Her best this season is over 70, so hypothetically, she'd be ahead of Tennell.

 

[RoseRed]

You forgot Daleman. Her best this season is over 70, so hypothetically, she'd be ahead of Tennell.

Oh yeah. I was thinking about her too. I guess I just managed to not write it down.

 

[ross_hy]

If all three American ladies go clean, I'm interested to see how they're sorted out. I expect them to be closely grouped just like they were at Nationals.

Karen seems to have the PCS advantage, but I bet Bradie's PCS will continue climbing now that she's USA #1. Mirai as always is the wild card. If they're all clean, I expect they'll fall within 8th-12th.

 

[bardtoob]

If all three American ladies go clean, I'm interested to see how they're sorted out. I expect them to be closely grouped just like they were at Nationals.

Karen seems to have the PCS advantage, but I bet Bradie's PCS will continue climbing now that she's USA #1. Mirai as always is the wild card. If they're all clean, I expect they'll fall within 8th-12th.

I think Nagasu could get into the top 6 because the 3A is headlines getting, American TV ratings getting ... Judging scrutiny getting ... Although I do not think Nagasu is near the podium, by any means.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Did y'all see Zag on cover of IFS? She doesn't look junior, but like a woman.

Hope to see more mature presentation from her next season!