If All Ladies Deliver in Olympics SP, Who Comprises Top 6?

[berthesghost]

More so than worlds, I think the Olys like to “share the love”. In an ideal world I think they’d like to dole out the medals one per continent.

Most people seem to agree on who the top four are, so with two spots left I don’t see why the judges wouldn’t give the nudge to 1 American and 1 Japanese in lieu of a 2nd Canadian and a third Russian making the final warm up only from 3 countries.

 

[giselle23]

my estimate is lower but that’s irrelevant to this thread as the question was if they all went clean. I just don’t see how Mirai can land a clean 3x and end up 7th or lower. I also assume “clean” means hitting your levels on spins and ft not just landed jumps. The PCS question is up in the air. Is this a clean but robotic Mirai (‘16 worlds), or an “on” (‘10 worlds sp) Mirai?

Don't agree Mirai was robotic in 2016. But robotic or not, she won't get PCS averaging above the 8s. She could easily get 76 in TES--isn't her base value 73?--
and assuming the judges give her a PCS
bonus (68?) for going clean with a 3A, she would be well into the 140s and in the top six, at least.

ETA : her base value is 65 but she scored 73 at Nationals with mistakes on the 3A and 3Lz. So I still think she could
score 76+ if she went clean.

 

[tkaug]

Top 6
Zagitova, Medvedeva, Osmond, Kostner, Sakamoto, Nagasu

Top 7-12
Daleman, Tennell, Sotskova, Chen, Choi, Tursynbaeva

I’d have Cheatoko Miyahara 14th place behind Rajicova because of UR’s(possibly DG for the toe) on all her jumps.

 

[Marco]

Zagitova, Medvedeva, Osmond, Kostner top 4 for sure.

If Nagasu hits all 4 triples AND gets called full credit, there is still always a risk her PCS will be dragged down. I am more ready to accept the US Fed pushing Tennell ahead instead. In 2014, Gold's PCS went ahead of Wagner's in Sochi once she won Nationals.

I think JPN would still push for Miyahara over Sakamoto due to tradition and Miyakara's contribution in the whole quad etc. Miyahara will probably hold onto top six by PCS like Kostner.

 

[giselle23]

Zagitova, Medvedeva, Osmond, Kostner top 4 for sure.

If Nagasu hits all 4 triples AND gets called full credit, there is still always a risk her PCS will be dragged down. I am more ready to accept the US Fed pushing Tennell ahead instead. In 2014, Gold's PCS went ahead of Wagner's in Sochi once she won Nationals.

I think JPN would still push for Miyahara over Sakamoto due to tradition and Miyakara's contribution in the whole quad etc. Miyahara will probably hold onto top six by PCS like Kostner.

Assuming that federations"push"for certain skaters, I think it would have been a no-brainer for the US to push for Gracie over Ashley.

 

[Maximillian]

I actually feel bad for Sotskova because as the number 3 Russian lady she has little chance from the get go, as evidenced by her scores at Euros.

 

[rfisher]

I actually feel bad for Sotskova because as the number 3 Russian lady she has little chance from the get go, as evidenced by her scores at Euros.

Well, the fact is Euros was Maria's worst performance of the season, so I don't think her scores were unreasonable or not reflective of what she put on the ice. I also think if she skates well, she can be on the podium. I hope she gets Sotnikova mad and goes out and earns her own medal. I just flat out don't buy into the conspiracy theories that the judges push one skater over another. Or don't want one country to have "too many" medals. The math required to calculate scores is just too complicated to be done in the short amount of time they have to do it. Zag and Med should be 1-2 if clean (or 2-1). Any of the other 4 could be number 3 depending on the skate.

 

[coppertop1]

My prediction: Medvedeva, Osmond, Zagitova, Daleman, Miyahara and Kostner.

Dark horses: Sakamoto, Sotskova, Choi, the Americans.

There are a lot of wild cards. Zagitova hasn’t skated clean in her SP very often this season. If she hits it, she will be in the top three. It’s wide open for anyone if any of the contenders faulted.

Top 6
Zagitova, Medvedeva, Osmond, Kostner, Sakamoto, Nagasu

Top 7-12
Daleman, Tennell, Sotskova, Chen, Choi, Tursynbaeva

I’d have Cheatoko Miyahara 14th place behind Rajicova because of UR’s(possibly DG for the toe) on all her jumps.

Cheatoko? Why do some people feel it necessary to resort to name calling?

 

[Vash01]

Am i interpreting this right?

Based on the poll numbers i am seeing right now-

Only 96 percent believe Zag will be in the top 6 and only 98 percent believe Med will be in the top 6, after perfect skates by both.

So there are 4 and 2 percent posters that believe they won't make the top 6?

May be I am not interpreting the poll numbers correctly.

 

[Areski]

Well, the fact is Euros was Maria's worst performance of the season, so I don't think her scores were unreasonable or not reflective of what she put on the ice. I also think if she skates well, she can be on the podium. I hope she gets Sotnikova mad and goes out and earns her own medal. I just flat out don't buy into the conspiracy theories that the judges push one skater over another. Or don't want one country to have "too many" medals. The math required to calculate scores is just too complicated to be done in the short amount of time they have to do it. Zag and Med should be 1-2 if clean (or 2-1). Any of the other 4 could be number 3 depending on the skate.

It's actually pretty easy to do it. Just give scanty GOE in real time for someone and high GOE for someone else. If it's too little or too much you can always overcook and undercook as you like. And that excluding PCS.

 

[bardtoob]

Zagitova hasn’t skated clean in her SP very often this season. If she hits it, she will be in the top three.

I have been forcing myself to recognize the Zagitova's jumps are simply better than Medvedeva's in terms of base difficulty and quality of execution.

 

[rfisher]

It's actually pretty easy to do it. Just give scanty GOE in real time for someone and high GOE for someone else. If it's too little or too much you can always overcook and undercook as you like. And that excluding PCS.

But, that really doesn't happen very often. In Maria's case at Euros, it wasn't at all necessary to "cook" the scores. She made mistakes. Simple. In most cases, the skater takes care of the scores all by themselves. Fans just love to look for "signals" to support the outcome of their favorite skater.

 

[Areski]

But, that really doesn't happen very often. In Maria's case at Euros, it wasn't at all necessary to "cook" the scores. She made mistakes. Simple. In most cases, the skater takes care of the scores all by themselves. Fans just love to look for "signals" to support the outcome of their favorite skater.

Yeah ... I actually concur with you that Sotskova was scored accurately and yes she made some mistakes / and had less quality than usual (slower spins etc. ), but top 3 was not given scores that would evaluate them properly..

 

[berthesghost]

Am i interpreting this right?

Based on the poll numbers i am seeing right now-

Only 96 percent believe Zag will be in the top 6 and only 98 percent believe Med will be in the top 6, after perfect skates by both.

So there are 4 and 2 percent posters that believe they won't make the top 6?

May be I am not interpreting the poll numbers correctly.

yes and no. It’s closer to 99% for med now which basically means for every 100 people, 99 feel she’s a shoe-in and 1 person is like “eh, she’s injured and with all of this doping talk who knows if Russia will boycott or not”. In other words: 1 person out of 100 thinking outside the box doesn’t seem odd or weird to me.

 

[RoseRed]

Am i interpreting this right?

Based on the poll numbers i am seeing right now-

Only 96 percent believe Zag will be in the top 6 and only 98 percent believe Med will be in the top 6, after perfect skates by both.

So there are 4 and 2 percent posters that believe they won't make the top 6?

May be I am not interpreting the poll numbers correctly.

One of the ones who didn't vote for Alina is me, and I meant to. I just missed checking the box and couldn't change it.

 

[Vash01]

yes and no. It’s closer to 99% for med now which basically means for every 100 people, 99 feel she’s a shoe-in and 1 person is like “eh, she’s injured and with all of this doping talk who knows if Russia will boycott or not”. In other words: 1 person out of 100 thinking outside the box doesn’t seem odd or weird to me.

The OP says - If they all deliver.....

So the injury and Russia boycotting (we know they are not) seem irrelevant to that scenario.

Someone not reading the OP carefully could be that 2 percent (at the time of my post).

 

[Winnipeg]

I put Kostner in the top 6 because if she skates clean she will get the benefit over the others. I do not think she should be in the top 6 if everyone skates clean but that she will be.

 

[millyskate]

Zag, Med, Kostner, Osmond.
Then, it depends on skate order. If we're assuming everyone skates clean, I presume that means without URs too. Because Satoko and Mirai are likely to UR.
I wouldn't be surprised if Sotskova and Tennell made up the final group.

 

[Frida80]

Zag, Med, Kostner, Osmond.
Then, it depends on skate order. If we're assuming everyone skates clean, I presume that means without URs too. Because Satoko and Mirai are likely to UR.
I wouldn't be surprised if Sotskova and Tennell made up the final group.

It means completely clean. No underrotations.

 

[bardtoob]

It means completely clean. No underrotations.

Right!?! The point of the thread is that they do skate clean, not if they do something else.

 

[tkaug]

What is the definition for “deliver”?
Performances with all the jumps clean and fully round and Lv4 for all the spins and the step sequence?
I don’t think Miyahara has ever landed her jumps fully round.
She always completes the rotations on the ice which she doesn’t seem to be aware of as she often complains about her scores when her jump(s) get UR’d.

 

[volturemean]

I dont understand why so many have Miyahara. Her jumps are much weaker than the others even clean, and she doesnt get such high PCS to overcome that. The top 2 Russians, Kostner, and Osmond would easily beat her clean to clean. Daleman would probably beat her if both are clean due to her much better jumps. Nagasu going clean with the triple axel probably beats her just due to base value even with lower GOE and PCS. Sotskova and Tennell would have a pretty good shot to beat her too.

Not to mention she is likely to underrotate something even in a clean looking performance.

 

[volturemean]

I put Kostner in the top 6 because if she skates clean she will get the benefit over the others. I do not think she should be in the top 6 if everyone skates clean but that she will be.

Now that she is doing a triple flip-triple toe in the short Kostner definitely deserves top 6 and probably top 4 if clean. Her skating skills and on ice maturity are the best. Her jump quality isnt the best but is better than some of the others on this poll. Her spins are probably the weakest of all these women, but her footwork and spirals are better than most of the others. She deserves it for sure now that she is no longer doing triple toe-triple toe.

 

[volturemean]

Karen Chen should be on the poll. All clean she will probably be the top American, unless Nagasu's triple axel pushes her above. She certainly will beat Tennell. IMO her superior jumps would put her over Miyahara, and she would be over the other Japanese girl too. She could easily be top 6 if everyone skates clean. She has strong PCS and some of the best jumps, and good spins, I think she would beat about half of these if they are all clean.

 

[skatingguy]

I dont understand why so many have Miyahara. Her jumps are much weaker than the others even clean, and she doesnt get such high PCS to overcome that. The top 2 Russians, Kostner, and Osmond would easily beat her clean to clean. Daleman would probably beat her if both are clean due to her much better jumps. Nagasu going clean with the triple axel probably beats her just due to base value even with lower GOE and PCS. Sotskova and Tennell would have a pretty good shot to beat her too.

Not to mention she is likely to underrotate something even in a clean looking performance.

I would say because Miyahara is a world medalist and has been pretty consistent with the short program this season - was first at 4CC, for example. I think the free skate with more jumping passes which could be called under rotated will cause her more problems, plus the title of this thread says all skate clean so that means to me that she hasn't under rotated anything.

 

[volturemean]

I would say because Miyahara is a world medalist and has been pretty consistent with the short program this season - was first at 4CC, for example. I think the free skate with more jumping passes which could be called under rotated will cause her more problems, plus the title of this thread says all skate clean so that means to me that she hasn't under rotated anything.

Even if she has no URs though someone like Daleman will get much more GOE. Miyahara might get higher PCS than someone like Daleman but she doesnt get Medvedeva or Kostner PCS from the judges either, not even close. Arguably she should but she doesnt, and she didnt even in 2016-2017 when her stock was the highest and her PCS arguably should have been as high or higher than someone like Medvedeva. Someone like Daleman if she skates like Canadian would likely beat her from the GOE on the jumps IMO. Anyway as a reigning world medalist and with the buzz in the skating community from her thrashing of Osmond at Canadians I am sure she has atleast as much respect from the judges as Miyahara does currently, probably more in fact. I dont see the judges giving Miyahara a big PCS edge on Daleman which IMO is the only way she beats her in this scenario, as Daleman would clearly come out on top in TES.

Someone like Chen would have a very good shot to beat Miyahara out of the final flight if both are clean with no UR calls and she wasnt even on the poll. I think having Tennell on the poll and not Chen is ridiculous, Tennell is more likely to skate clean but Chen skating cleanly with no UR calls would easily beat Tennell, I am almost sure of that.

Nagasu with a clean triple axel probably beats Miyahara too, just because of the triple axel.

Really everyone on this poll would have a decent shot too, not sure for everyone but a decent shot, minus Tennell who definitely loses to Miyahara clean to clean, and maybe Sakamoto just due to being Japanese #2 even though many aspects, like her technical elements beside many of the spins, are better than Miyahara. I think in the unlikely fantasy everyone is totally clean Miyahara is likely out of the final flight, even with no URs. Especialy now with Nagasu doing a triple axel which means in the hypothetical clean she probably beats Miyahara whereas otherwise she would not have.

And it is a no brainer Medvedeva, Zagitova, Osmond, and Kostner (now that she has upgraded her combo and seeing how her SP was scored at Europeans) would easily beat even a clean Miyahara if they are also clean in the short. And the likelihood atleast 2 others would is quite good.

 

[tkaug]

What is the definition for “deliver”?
Performances with all the jumps clean and fully round and Lv4 for all the spins and the step sequence?
I don’t think Miyahara has ever landed her jumps fully round.
She always completes the rotations on the ice which she doesn’t seem to be aware of as she often complains about her scores when her jump(s) get UR’d.

Miyahara has “delivered” but got 2 URs.
So the meaning of “deliver” means nothing for her because she can NEVER get her jumps fully round.

 

[DreamSkates]

Did y'all see Zag on cover of IFS? She doesn't look junior, but like a woman.

Hope to see more mature presentation from her next season!

With enough makeup and an overdone costume, a 15 year old can appear older. Yes a more mature presentation would be welcome. and drop the tutu. She's no ballerina.

 

[Cachoo]

I guess the questions I have involve Kaetlyn. Do you consider her technique so good that should she go clean she could defeat Med and Zag? Top Six: Karolina, Ev, AL, Kae, Maria and......Karen Chen. When Karen is "on" she's beautiful on the ice.

 

[berthesghost]

Ok, let's see... How did we do?

Other than picking Daleman over Sakamoto, we pretty much hit it.