How would Asada, Kim, and Kwan have placed at the 2006 Olympics

[savchenkoboss]

I wonder what kind of jumping shape Baiul would be in by 96. One thing people forget is her knee problems as a pro were in part since her ridiculous agent signed her up for like 20 things in 6 months, and she was forced to do each even while already having a serious knee problem that was never allowed to fully heal.

Sato really peaked as a pro between 95-97. A 96 Olympics would be far the best one for her ever to be a contender to medal or possibly win. Much moreso than 94, even in a potentially stronger field. Even in her best pro or amateur shape though she isn't really the strongest jumper in this group.

I am not sure Kerrigan stays for 96 or not. I think it is 50-50. She admits she stayed mostly since the Olympics were in 94. And even if she does who knows if she can hit her 94 form or better. 93-94 season was the only season in her career she hit that form. Harding probably stays, but she had better be in better shape than she in both 93 and 94, if she is going to be a contender.

With Baiul and Sato (and maybe Kerrigan) competing, Chen probably never wins the 95 worlds, which probably gives her a better shot at the 96 Olympics as she isn't coming in off a string of horrible momentum killing performances like she was the 95-96 season.

Assuming Bobek still has the 94-95 season she did, she probably makes a more commited push for the 95-96 season than she did in the actual 95-96 season if it has an Olympic Games. Then again this is Bobek, so probably giving her too much credit.

Bonaly probably would have had her big decline in the 95-96 season anyway. It seemed to be physical burn out/ fatigue, and there really isn't any cure for that.

And of course does Kwan still sneak out and take her senior test when she does if there is no 94 Olympics (according to her she wouldn't have), and if she is a year (atleast) further behind is there anyway she is a contender for the 96 Olympics, when hypothetically she is probably best case where she was in 95 now. Is Slutskaya, who medaled at the 96 worlds, any sort of contender in probably a much stronger field either.

And yes does Ito still come back, and does she fare any better than her actual 96 comeback. A whole lot of questions. The only certainty is we don't see Yamaguchi back. Everyone thought she would come back for 94 and she didn't.


The mens and pairs are also interesting. Does Stojko still have his worst year of the whole 93-98 quad and a half if 96 is an Olympic year, and does he go from a 2 time Olympic medalist to having no Olympic medal? Is Elredge an Olympic Champion now? Is Galindo an Olympic medalist? Does Candelero also go from being a 2 time Olympic medalist to a 0 time?

Is the pairs still the sad trainwreck the 96 worlds turned out to be with Eltsova & Bushkov crowned the Olympic Champions? Are Meno/Sand Olympic medalists?

And as for the ice dance do Rahkammo & Kokko and Usova & Zhulin stick around for a 96 Games, and how do both fare. Can R&K medal in this field, presuming T&D still don't make a comeback? Can U&Z with their relationship increasingly worse challenge an ever improving G&P for the gold, which they lost to them in the actual 94 Olympics by .1?

 

[berthesghost]

That is one reason she had no shot vs Kim that year (2010) even if she had skated perfectly.

You keep saying that as if she didn’t in fact beat Kim just a month later at worlds.

 

[WillyElliot]

You keep saying that as if she didn’t in fact beat Kim just a month later at worlds.

I think some people don't realize Worlds after Olympics are meaningless. Once you win the ONLY prize of the Olympic season, the Worlds are worth nada. Vancouver showed that Kim was pretty much better by a large margin than Mao. That Kim was forced to attend that Worlds when she clearly did not want to be there and said as much kind of shows that post-Oly Worlds mean extremely little, almost nothing. (That is unless you are Kimmie Meissner or Katelyn Osmond)

Good question about Baiul keeping her jumps to 1996. Frankly, she was a MUCH MUCH MUCH better jumper with her new post-puberty body. Her jumps were always big, but with her new body her lutz was magic, and her other triples were big and effortless. Of course that was only for a span of maybe a few months. I can't imagine being an Oly champ at 16 with NO parents, a new country with a new language to live in order to make a living and basically supporting several people with newfound wealth, plus being an alcoholic and somehow making it all happen and keep it together. Bless you, dear Drunksana. You did it better than I could have...

 

[VGThuy]

Some of my favorite World Champs became World Champs at the ones that occurred after the Olympics. Some of them skated much better at Worlds as well. Some times the overall competitions are better as well.

 

[Marco]

It might have also been Bonaly skating such an awful performance right before Tara. Something like an 8 year old regurgitated Four Seasons program she had used off and on since 91, a bunch of badly executed jump attempts, and an in your face backflip at the end. Tara must have looked godly by comparision after that mess.

I personally think this was a big part of it. If Michelle and Tara had switched skate orders, Michelle would have received 6.0s in Nagano.

I would have loved to have seen Kwan's version and see if it was a good fit for her or not, but IMO Mao's LP to that music was by her worst artistic program ever. The music felt overbearing and she didnt seem to relate to it at all.

It probably would have been too overbearing for Michelle Kwan as well. Heavier pieces like Tosca made her skating look heavy and laboured.

 

[Marco]

I am discounting Yu Na Kim solely based on how extremely low her PCS were in her first senior internationals early next season. Like at Skate Canada she was receiving way lower PCS than even Suguri, let alone Rochette. She still would have won this event (due to Rochette's mistakes) had she gone clean, but the PCS were much lower than those other two. It seems her skating wouldnt have been developed enough by the time of the Turin Olympics to get the PCS needed, unless she was really outstanding technically. Then come to think of it she already had a consistent triple lutz-triple toe and triple flip-triple toe which got big GOE so particularly with how Cohen and Slutskaya made so many mistakes, and everyone did/probably does watered down content besides Asada, that might be enough to overcome the much lower PCS. So on second thought I am probably underestimating her despite the inevitable low PCS. She could have been like the Sotnikova of Turin, killing everyone technically to overcome the inferior artistry/components.

Mao Asada also started with low PCS when she debuted at the GPs that season but gained ground as the season went on. I think Yuna Kim could most probably do the same - not to 8s level, but high enough that it didn't become a burden.

 

[MAXSwagg]

I think some people don't realize Worlds after Olympics are meaningless. Once you win the ONLY prize of the Olympic season, the Worlds are worth nada. Vancouver showed that Kim was pretty much better by a large margin than Mao. That Kim was forced to attend that Worlds when she clearly did not want to be there and said as much kind of shows that post-Oly Worlds mean extremely little, almost nothing. (That is unless you are Kimmie Meissner or Katelyn Osmond)

Good question about Baiul keeping her jumps to 1996. Frankly, she was a MUCH MUCH MUCH better jumper with her new post-puberty body. Her jumps were always big, but with her new body her lutz was magic, and her other triples were big and effortless. Of course that was only for a span of maybe a few months. I can't imagine being an Oly champ at 16 with NO parents, a new country with a new language to live in order to make a living and basically supporting several people with newfound wealth, plus being an alcoholic and somehow making it all happen and keep it together. Bless you, dear Drunksana. You did it better than I could have...

Post-Olympic Worlds only mean something if you are the Olympic champion and then win Worlds right after. Aside from that, 2014 Worlds is the only one in recent memory that mean something, IMO.

 

[WillyElliot]

Post-Olympic Worlds only mean something if you are the Olympic champion and then win Worlds right after. Aside from that, 2014 Worlds is the only one in recent memory that mean something, IMO.

What's scary is I have no idea who placed or medalled at that event.... Just a bad quad for my fandom. Chan was sublime yet would fall all over the ice and still win... I forget the ladies leading up to 2014... I had been following Julia Lipnitskaya for years, so it was good to see her achieve her dream.

 

[berthesghost]

I think some people don't realize Worlds after Olympics are meaningless. Once you win the ONLY prize of the Olympic season, the Worlds are worth nada. ..

i’m sure team zag is banking on people hopefully feeling this way

I’m pretty sure it means something to ISU, the skating feds and all the skaters who medal at them

2014 worlds was imo mao’s best ever skating.

Just a bad quad for my fandom.

but a good quad if you’re a Kostner fan

 

[giselle23]

I think some people don't realize Worlds after Olympics are meaningless. Once you win the ONLY prize of the Olympic season, the Worlds are worth nada. Vancouver showed that Kim was pretty much better by a large margin than Mao. That Kim was forced to attend that Worlds when she clearly did not want to be there and said as much kind of shows that post-Oly Worlds mean extremely little, almost nothing. (That is unless you are Kimmie Meissner or Katelyn Osmond)

Disagree. Were the non-Olympic year Worlds where Kim didn't win meaningless, too? The fact that both Kim and Asada were competitors at 2010 actually made it more meaningful than some post-Olympic Worlds where the top competitors at the Olympics don't attend. If the post-Olympics Worlds are meaningless, then Dorothy Hamill never won Worlds, Kristi Yamaguchi only won Worlds once, Peggy Fleming only won Worlds twice, Michelle Kwan only won Worlds four times, Irina Slutskaya only won Worlds once, Mao Asada only won Worlds once--and that is just the ladies. Was Nathan Chen's win this year--by a huge margin--meaningless?

 

[Ohyes]

Bad! Yuna Kim is the most overrated skater of all time. I love how she got what she deserved from the ISU judges. ISU judges are my personal role models.

Lol troll obvious troll.

 

[Ohyes]

If anybody thinks that the SP and LP placements and their overall influence on the final standings were fair in Calgary then they are a dumbass.

Furthermore, if anybody thinks Witt was not given generous marks in figures in Calgary then they are a dumbass.

Witt was so overscored in the LP in Calgary she shouldn't have come first in that segment.

 

[berthesghost]

Witt was so overscored in the LP in Calgary she shouldn't have come first in that segment.

she didn’t. The lp ranking went 1. Manley, 2. Witt, 3. Ito, 4. Thomas but I agree with @bardtoob. I doubt the judges ranked them in a vacuum and would have been fine with Manley gold, Witt silver and Ito bronze. I think they put them where they could in order to secure Witt gold, Manley silver and Thomas bronze including what happened in all phases ie one simply can’t just ignore figures placement and think the final results would follow the other rankings left.

 

[savchenkoboss]

You keep saying that as if she didn’t in fact beat Kim just a month later at worlds.

She did but Kim made a ton of mistakes at Worlds. At the Olympics Kim was letter perfect. Mao had no shot to beat Kim in Vancouver that year. The score she needed was a 155 LP score which was impossible for her.

 

[savchenkoboss]

Mao Asada also started with low PCS when she debuted at the GPs that season but gained ground as the season went on. I think Yuna Kim could most probably do the same - not to 8s level, but high enough that it didn't become a burden.

Very possible. I guess we won't ever know but even before the 2005-2006 season there was much more hype on Mao than Kim at that point. I think Kim would have a harder time grabbing the Senior judges that season. Not impossible though if she stayed consistent and regularly oujumped the vets as Mao did. I don't think her packaging was much less developed than Mao's at that point.

 

[berthesghost]

She did but Kim made a ton of mistakes at Worlds. At the Olympics Kim was letter perfect. Mao had no shot to beat Kim in Vancouver that year. The score she needed was a 155 LP score which was impossible for her.

Yes, the fact that kim managed to keep her shit together at Olys is what makes her win so spectacular. But the fact that she often didn’t is exactly what Mao’s “shot” at gold was. On any other day I mean, did you see kim’s Lp at SA that season that Flatt managed to plod her way to beating, that’s how bad it was she actually lost worlds twice to Miki Ando and wasn’t even “wuz robbed”!

 

[savchenkoboss]

Yes, the fact that kim managed to keep her shit together at Olys is what makes her win so spectacular. But the fact that she often didn’t is exactly what Mao’s “shot” at gold was. On any other day I mean, did you see kim’s Lp at SA that season that Flatt managed to plod her way to beating, that’s how bad it was she actually lost worlds twice to Miki Ando and wasn’t even “wuz robbed”!

I know, that is why I said given how Kim actually skated at Vancouver, and that Mao had her worst choreographed LP ever IMO, she had no shot of winning there. Yes if Kim had messed up maybe Mao had a shot even with her awful Bells LP but she didnt. As it was with just a couple of mistakes she would have lost silver to Rochette if Joannie did not also make a couple of key mistakes in her own LP, despite the 3 triple axels. Which shows how bad her Bells LP is, since Mao with numerous clean and ratified triple axels and only a couple mistakes over 2 full programs should not be in danger of losing to Joannie typically.

 

[MAXSwagg]

One simply can’t only look at the numbers from 2010 because GOEs were not factored, so this gave Yuna a huge advantage. Also, jump valuations were very odd. They still are, in fact, with 3Lz+3T being worth more than 3A+2T for example.

 

[savchenkoboss]

One simply can’t only look at the numbers from 2010 because GOEs were not factored, so this gave Yuna a huge advantage. Also, jump valuations were very odd. They still are, in fact, with 3Lz+3T being worth more than 3A+2T for example.

I agree on all of that. That all aside Mao's LP was still my least favorite of hers ever. And that Yu Na was the judges favorite and had better momentum at that exact moment aside (clearly true) I wouldnt have had Mao beating Yu Na with that program, and with some of her jump issues on jumps outside the triple axel (eg- flutz, questionable quality on some) even had she gone clean. Especialy not with how incredibly Yu Na skated at that event, probably her best competition ever. However that she nearly lost to Rochette also shows the Bells program was one of her worst. Yeah she had a couple mistakes, but so did Rochette as I said, and if Rochette just lost 1 of her 2 errors she beats Mao which woudlnt normally ever happen when Mao lands 3 clean triple axels even with a couple mistakes.

2014 is an entirely different story though. That was one of Mao's most beautiful LPs ever, so far more exquisite, wonderous, and suited to her than Bells it is indescribable the difference; and unlike 2010 she had all the triples in great working order around then, and was doing all 6 triples. I would have had scoring about a 155 and setting a new WR. It wouldnt have mattered to the medals in the end since she had blown the SP completely, but that she scored only about 140 and was 4th (or 3rd, I forget) shows what a complete fix that event was. I am convinced in retrospect nobody could have beaten Sotnikova there unless she fell twice and someone else was flawless, I believe that was set in stone by Putin et al. prior to the event. That Mao, Kim, and Kostner all skated much better LPs than Sotnikova and got much lower scores, and that Mao skated the best LP and got only the 4th best score, pretty much sums up this wasnt even a competition. That is why I also dismiss 2014 as a gold shot, even if it should have been.

 

[savchenkoboss]

she didn’t. The lp ranking went 1. Manley, 2. Witt, 3. Ito, 4. Thomas but I agree with @bardtoob. I doubt the judges ranked them in a vacuum and would have been fine with Manley gold, Witt silver and Ito bronze. I think they put them where they could in order to secure Witt gold, Manley silver and Thomas bronze including what happened in all phases ie one simply can’t just ignore figures placement and think the final results would follow the other rankings left.

So had Manley placed 2nd in the short program over Thomas (as she nearly did, I think it was 1 judge, plus she probably does without 1 of her 2 shaky elements there) do you think the judges have the gall to place Witt 1st in the LP over Manley even in front of the rabid Canadian crowd with how they both skated? I could be wrong, but I have a hard time finding them being that brazen. Personally I think Ito should have won the LP, or atleast been over Witt in it, but it is easier to push her down as she is an up and comer, low in figures, and not the final flight. Would the judges have really dared to lose Manley the gold medal to Witt directly by losing to her in LP with the skates both did that night. I just think they would be too scared of a controversy, and especialy the fans being angry at that result.

 

[berthesghost]

Please. They robbed Linda Fratianne blind right in front of her home crowd. She was a two time and reigning WC who delivered a stellar lp. Would they have had the nerve to prop up a 3 time world champ and ogm with an iconic and popular lp and a notoriously political coach and federation against a known choker with one lucky skate to her name to a hot mess mosh up lp with little to no presentation concept? Hell yeahs! They let Witt beat a WC in 84 by 1 10th of a point back when she was a nobody, why would they not let her beat a nobody once she was established as one of the sports great champions. Figure skating judges are shameless, notoriously corrupt and not a one need bother with a body guard because the public literally accepts whatever they do. Kerioki singers on tv get more public support than oly skaters. Skaters get robbed on a regular basis and judges never feel the heat.

 

[MAXSwagg]

Please. They robbed Linda Fratianne blind right in front of her home crowd. She was a two time and reigning WC who delivered a stellar lp. Would they have had the nerve to prop up a 3 time world champ and ogm with an iconic and popular lp and a notoriously political coach and federation against a known choker with one lucky skate to her name to a hot mess mosh up lp with little to no presentation concept? Hell yeahs! They let Witt beat a WC in 84 by 1 10th of a point back when she was a nobody, why would they not let her beat a nobody once she was established as one of the sports great champions. Figure skating judges are shameless, notoriously corrupt and not a one need bother with a body guard because the public literally accepts whatever they do. Kerioki singers on tv get more public support than oly skaters. Skaters get robbed on a regular basis and judges never feel the heat.

But I thought Sonia Bianchetti said Pötzsch deserved to win over Fratianne?

 

[savchenkoboss]

But I thought Sonia Bianchetti said Pötzsch deserved to win over Fratianne?

I thought Poetzsch deserved it. I found Fratianne boring and wholly unremarkable and Poetzsch only won due to being WAY stronger in figures than Linda as she always was. Poetzsch is herself not an exciting or super spectacular free skater, and sometimes an inconsistent one, but here she skated a very good clean LP with the same jumps as Fratianne and still was put behind Linda's boring Carmen skate decisively in the long program by 8 of 9 judges, and she still had enough to win so I fail to see on what planet Linda was so robbed. Sounds like typical Frank revionist propaganda to me.

Due to Poetzsch's figures edge the only 2 times Linda beat Poetzsch for a major title-77 and 79 worlds she blew the free skate which never came close to happening here. Something forgotten due to Frank's revionist spin.

 

[bardtoob]

Annette couldn't do a 2Lp in combination with a 2A or triple, not to mention had performed a bad 2A and final combination spin, but was held up in the technical program. End of story.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FZKzP5rwZs

 

[Miki89]

Some of my favorite World Champs became World Champs at the ones that occurred after the Olympics. Some of them skated much better at Worlds as well. Some times the overall competitions are better as well.

2014 Worlds was better than the Olympics that year for many reasons. Considering how often upsets happen at the Olympics compared to Worlds, I wouldn't necessarily rate it over Worlds in terms of quality, despite greater prestige.

 

[briancoogaert]

Just to compare Olympics and Worlds from the same year. IMO, Kristi Yamaguchi skated better at 1992 Worlds than 1992 Olympics.

 

[Miki89]

I think it’s interesting to wonder the “what ifs”. I’m sure results would be different if age rules didn’t change or if the Winter Olympic cycle didn’t change in the early 90s. But at the end of the day, timing is key at the Olympics. Controversy aside, few expected someone like Adelina to skate that well at the Olympics. I recall she wasn’t even considered a medal contender with most seeing an upset coming from Yulia.

 

[savchenkoboss]

I think it’s interesting to wonder the “what ifs”. I’m sure results would be different if age rules didn’t change or if the Winter Olympic cycle didn’t change in the early 90s. But at the end of the day, timing is key at the Olympics. Controversy aside, few expected someone like Adelina to skate that well at the Olympics. I recall she wasn’t even considered a medal contender with most seeing an upset coming from Yulia.

I am guessing with how well Kim, Kostner, and in the LP Asada, skated, Yulia would have created even more controversy since she had less going for her. Sotnitkova atleast had huge jumps (the justification of Julia's tiny jumps getting higher GOE than Yu Na Kim would be a super tough explanation), more maturity, a higher base value, and like Julia superior spins to the other 2 medalists. Then again Julia was probably a lot more popular than Sotnitkova to non Russians, she captured a lot of hearts in the Team Event. So it is hard to say for sure.

 

[Miki89]

In retrospect, Julia was probably the most artistic of the recent generation of Russian skaters. She made Eteri choreography tolerable imo. Her interpretation was sensitive and it seemed like she was trying at least. Adelina, on the other hand, had terrible choreography at the Olympics. It's too bad because she was very talented as a junior skater and definitely had the technical advantage over Julia.

 

[skateboy]

I think some people don't realize Worlds after Olympics are meaningless.

Or perhaps you're the one who doesn't realize that they are NOT meaningless.

Don't be silly. A world championship is a world championship. Sure, some Olympic champions back out of post-Oly worlds (although many attend) but, if they had no meaning, the ISU would not bother with the expense of putting them on.