Does a Three Russian Lady GPF Roster Assure Olympic Spots?

[tony]

Medvedeva is in, Zagitova is extremely likely to be in, and now Tsurskaya has a very good shot of making the Grand Prix Final as well with a medal and extremely high event point total heading into Skate America.

All Tutberidze students. Do you think all of them making the Grand Prix Final helps their chances (boosts their GOEs/PCS, gives them some boost, whatever) going into Nationals to form the three-lady Olympic team?

Or is it unlikely that all three skaters will come from the same coach, for whatever reason?

 

[bardtoob]

I think the Russian Fed, internally, is too political to have a fixed team before January.

However, this does not rule out a whole Team Eteri.

 

[tony]

BTW, the last time I think they strayed from using final results was '98 Nationals- where Julia Soldatova placed 2nd, Sokolova 3rd, and Slutskaya just narrowly beating Volchkova out for 4th place (Viktoria won the short there!). Soldatova went to Euros, finished something like 7th or 8th, and I believe the Russian Federation decided at that point that she would not go to the Olympics because the result was not good enough. The 11-year old me vaguely remembers some article about it.

All of Butyrskaya, Slutskaya, and Sokolova made the Grand Prix Final that season, and they comprised the Olympic and World teams.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Medvedeva is in, Zagitova is extremely likely to be in, and now Tsurskaya has a very good shot of making the Grand Prix Final as well with a medal and extremely high event point total heading into Skate America.

All Tutberidze students. Do you think all of them making the Grand Prix Final helps their chances (boosts their GOEs/PCS, gives them some boost, whatever) going into Nationals to form the three-lady Olympic team?

Or is it unlikely that all three skaters will come from the same coach, for whatever reason?

There is your Olympic team right there son

 

[briancoogaert]

It may help if those three go to the GPF and skate well there.
I hope Sotskova will skate well enough to go to the Olympics.

 

[LarrySK8]

Well, NO - of course not. It will depend on politics at the selection committee meeting, and the RSF is sitting in a position where they really can not lose. Med is World Champ and is skating fine. She goes.

With two positions left - Radio, Zag, Tuk, Pogo, Leonova, Sotskova, Tsurskaya - 7+ (SEVEN?!?!?) choices - maybe RSF will choose based on finances (send 3 from one coach and save!) OR they have the luxury to choose knowing whomever they send will be very competitive.

As they all can potentially jump the same, RSF can choose based on spin levels and PCS results. I would consider the highest SS and PF scores, actually, to be very important, as well. My choices would be Sotskova and Zag

 

[zigzig]

If Polina wins Skate America she’ll probably go with Med and Zag. She strikes me as a more dominant/commanding skater whereas Sotskova seems like she has to depend on mistakes from others to win.

 

[tony]

If Polina wins Skate America she’ll probably go with Med and Zag. She strikes me as a more dominant/commanding skater whereas Sotskova seems like she has to depend on mistakes from others to win.

My concern with Sotskova is that she's trying the Tano variation on almost all of her jumps, and it may slow down her rotation just enough that she gets a bunch of < calls. It makes her jumps all look a little bit 'off'. Tsurskaya has a much more solid technique and isn't trying flashy features.

Leonova is not an option at all. She doesn't get the scores internationally and the Russian Federation knows this. Tuktamysheva would even need a miracle because her GOE scores are all typically lower. Radionova will put herself in contention but just about every other lady on the list is a better overall skater. Pogorilaya- who knows. If she skates a perfect competition she really could get the 3rd spot but we see her condition so far this year.

 

[all_empty]

I don't know about Pogorilaya's chances. Too nervy of a competitor, and she runs the risk of injuring herself during competition which would be terrible for both her and the team.

Right now, I'd be very happy with Medvedeva, Zagitova and Tsurskaya (a potential sweep right there) or Sotskova.

Leonova had the skate of her life at NHK and should retire this season happy that she was such a journeywoman for the Russian Federation during their lean years.

Tuktamysheva has an outside outside chance if she gets her triple Axel back but like Miyahara (sadly), I think she peaked in between the Games. But I'd even put Radianova above her in the pecking order right now.

 

[shady82]

Is Konstantinova eligible this year? If she is, she probably won't get sent to Olympics since she doesn't have a proven record of strong performance at the senior level. But she has very high scoring potential as seen during the Russian Cup.

 

[Skittl1321]

The thread title says "assure" and I would say it does not. The first post says "help", and of course it does, assuming they do well there.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

My concern with Sotskova is that she's trying the Tano variation on almost all of her jumps

What constitutes the Tano jump these days. Because I don't think I would call Sotskova's eye-soars Tanos......

In fact if I were a judge she'd get a -GOE from me but thats me....

 

[pinky166]

Well 4 Russian ladies could make the GPF right? Sotskova has a silver already. So if 4 girls make it then clearly that’s more ladies than can make the team.

I think the last spot will either be Tsurskaya or Sotskova. Also Sotkova had UR issues before she started doing all the tanos. A strict caller can really make or break how well she can do. That being said she is pretty consistent. I want Radio to go but I don’t see it happening unfortunately.

 

[Marco]

Yes it is possible that 4 RUS ladies make the GPF. Med has qualified, and here is one scenario in which 3 more can qualify:

Sot gets 2nd or higher in FRA; Zag gets 4th or higher in FRA; Tsu gets 2nd or higher in USA.

If all 4 make it, I think it is important which 3 place highest. This will likely dictate PCS judging at Russian nationals.

 

[RoseRed]

Yes it is possible that 4 RUS ladies make the GPF. Med has qualified, and here is one scenario in which 3 more can qualify:

Sot gets 2nd or higher in FRA; Zag gets 4th or higher in FRA; Tsu gets 2nd or higher in USA.

If all 4 make it, I think it is important which 3 place highest. This will likely dictate PCS judging at Russian nationals.

With 2nd, Polina would need to win the TB over Wakaba. She'd need just a slightly lower score than she got at NHK.

 

[oleada]

I don't think it's set in stone, but I don't think it would hurt, either. As far as 3 skaters having the same coach, all 3 of the pairs teams in Sochi were coached by Mozer.

 

[SamuraiK]

It has come down to Tsurskaya vs Sotskova. Qualifying for the GPF would be key for either of them.

Pogorilaya has taken herself out with 2 back to back disastrous showings. If she had trained hard after Helsinki and came back strong maybe but now she's too much of a risk.

Radio and Tuk are only dark horses at this point.

 

[pinky166]

It has come down to Tsurskaya vs Sotskova. Qualifying for the GPF would be key for either of them.

Pogorilaya has taken herself out with 2 back to back disastrous showings. If she had trained hard after Helsinki and came back strong maybe but now she's too much of a risk.

Radio and Tuk are only dark horses at this point.

Agree. On top of the inconsistency Pogo seems to be dealing with an injury and thus idk if she’ll even be at Nationals. She looked to be in physical pain at SC.

Tuk brought back the 3a and still didn’t medal at CoC and was beaten by Radionova. Radionova with a clean skate will score lower than Sotskova and Tsurskaya (unless they get hit with lots of URs which is possible) due to how rough her jumps are, and at this point I don’t think she’s more likely to skate clean on any given day than the other 2.

Tsurskaya did do pretty poorly at JW but it was likely due to injury and she otherwise has been consistent in competition. Sotskova wasn’t great at Euros or Worlds last season but was still fairly solid. I think one of those two make it but don’t get used in the team event.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

If she had trained hard after Helsinki and came back strong maybe

Yeah but she had back injuries over the summer and after Helsinki.

 

[Marco]

The thing to note for Tuktamysheva at Cup of China is:

1. she skated very close to her best, better than when she won Worlds, and still placed 7th.

2. she skated very close to her best, better than when she won Worlds, and still lost to Radionova and all 3 Japanese girls and except for Marin Honda, she lost to all of them by a mile.

The judges have spoken. It is not about her skating clean anymore. Others have simply passed her by.

Obviously the next 2 GP events may provide more details, but I am surprised/ impressed that Radionova is holding on better than Tuktamysheva.