There wasn't a definite 1-2-3 in Russia when V/T came back. Stolbova/Klimov had their struggles, and Kavaguti/Smirnov had their injuries. There were a lot of teams fighting for that last spot, and there was hope.
With V/M, W/P, and G/P competing, especially with Skate Canada's love for Poirier, the fight is for Olympic year 4C's, unless there is an injury or highly unusual circumstances.
Russian pairs results in 2015:
Tarasova & Morozov-5th
Kavaguti & Smirnov-6th, 1st at Europeans
Astakhova & Roganov-10th
Stolbova & Klimov-2nd at Europeans, 2nd at the GPF, (2nd at the Olympics)
Volosozhar & Trankov-Gold at the Olympics
Canadian ice dance results in 2016:
Weaver & Poje-5th
Gilles & Poirier-8th
Paradis & Ouellette-23rd
Paul & Islam-6th at Skate Canada (13th at 2015 Worlds)
Virtue & Moir-Silver at the Olympics
I get the same sense as the one you have implied, though. That in Canada there is
suddenly no hope.
Why not? If you look at these teams individually, with respect to their careers in dance; rather than as a group vying only for an Olympic berth, then why shouldn't they have cause for hope?
1. There is a possible berth on the World team available in 2018. (Do we really think W&P and V&M are going to both go fight this out at Worlds after one of them comes ahead in the Olympics?) Yes, Paul & Islam are there, but they were there last season so I don't see that V&M's return has changed things regarding the fight for that spot at Worlds.
2. Delmaestro & Lum were just up out of juniors last season. Did they have hope for the 2018 Olympics before? One would think they were looking at that 4CC spot already. Perhaps it was the reality of this first senior season that impacted them, but shouldn't they have been looking farther ahead to the future? And there is a LOT of cause for hope post 2018.
3. Poulin & Servant had only been out of juniors two seasons. My response is the same as above.
4. Orford & Hill just teamed up. They won a competition in their first year together. All that time and work, and they are ready to scrap it after one year?
5. Paradis & Ouellette broke through onto the World team for Pete's sake! (Methinks Moskvina would say this is worth "sticking around." And perhaps they are. Perhaps this is just a mysterious summer "break"
a la Stolbova & Klimov in 2015).
The highest ranked Canadian junior team chasing any of these athletes placed 9th at Junior Worlds last season. Bent & Razgulajevs will improve as they have more time as a team, but this is not a huge threat here. (In comparison, the U.S. has 6 Junior Dance teams who outscored them on the JGP this season). So, again, the path post 2018 is absolutely reachable. (And suddenly a
whole lot more reachable for B&R).
I just think all of these teams had cause for hope. So why do they not feel that the path to post 2018 is possible? If the change is really monetary, perhaps something can be done here? It takes longer to reach the top in dance. If Canada wishes to maintain the quality of its current dance program, then long-term depth is important.
Note: I think Edwards & Pang had even more potential, but this departure really feels injury-related.