Thanks for your thoughtful analysis, and for crunching those stats
@clairecloutier. Very interesting to look at the statistics and gain those insights.
We should probably keep in mind that there were quite a few new partnerships. Also a number of splits from last season, and with two top teams being out with injury and illness respectively (Haven/Brandon and Gretchen/Nate) that also led to not as strong a field. The fact that some of the lower placed teams clearly need a lot of improvement and more mileage together is indicative of perhaps a transitional time in the lower ranks, or simply a result of the same old situation of too many U.S. pairs not sticking together long enough to improve and excel. Some of the teams we saw appear to be skating for personal motivation and love of the sport, and to see how much they can improve and/or just take part. I'm sure it was a thrill for many of them just to compete on the Nationals stage. And they all tried mightily. A good learning experience for all of them.
Apparently Fujimoto/Barsi-Rhyne have been together for awhile, and they are a lovely young pair with some interesting elements. I wonder why they don't show much improvement in terms of skating skills? They appear to be talented? Is it a lack of money to pay for sufficient training time? A need for better coaching? I just don't see the same energy and excitement among the lower ranks of the pairs discipline in the United States that we see in ice dance. Shaughnessy/Morgan are a spirited, attractive pair with very nice chemistry, and they are with good coaches. It seems to me that something is missing though. What is the key to fine-tuning their rough edges, and improving skill and confidence on their jump elements? I don't know what the answers are. More training for pairs coaches in the U.S., or an infusion of more skilled coaches? But then there also needs to be full commitment and staying together from the athletes.
The positives of course are the Florida teams, with Jim Peterson having pairs teams winning in Novice, Juniors, and Seniors, which bodes well for the future. The pairs crew training out of Colorado Springs is also very strong, but need to gain in confidence and consistency. Marissa/Mervin appear to need to rethink their training strategy. It may not be working out for them to travel back and forth from Montreal to Boston. I'm not sure what their schedule is like, but I think they both need to bear down and fix their technical issues and set some short and long term goals. I'm not sure whether the fact Mervin may not be eligible for the Olympics is playing in their minds. Perhaps they are mainly focused on trying to get the chance to compete at Worlds and move up the ranks nationally and internationally. I hope they do well in their 4CCs outing.
I think Pfund/Santillan and Smith/Reiss are very promising teams with good chemistry and strong jump elements. The thing is though that Pfund/Santillan need more backing financially in order to gain sufficient training time. As we know, it is quite a different scenario for the top-rated Chinese teams who are government-funded. I'm sure that also adds a great deal of stress and pressure to their lives as well as other strictures. But of course, it is also helpful to be able to focus so exclusively and diligently on training without having to worry about lack of financial resources.
Another thing to point out is that if the level of quality was very high across the board among U.S. pairs, that would make for more lively and exciting competition, but still there would only be two to three spots available for Worlds (assuming that if our teams were much better they would be more competitive and may be able to secure 3 Worlds spots). But the reality that there's a dearth of opportunities available to compete internationally for the talented top teams we already have, I think is a big part of the complicated obstacles our athletes face.