And, finally, my Women's projections - JPN is going to be maxed out, the USA won't be far behind with 2 at each GP, though the chances of getting a 3rd are low unless someone comes out of relative obscurity & far down the SB Alternates list early on at Cranberry the way Elyce & Sarah did last summer...
72 Spots
Grand Prix Seeded Skaters 1-6
Liu
Sakamoto
Chiba
Levito
Glenn
Higuchi
Grand Prix Invited Skaters 7-12
Pinzarrone
Petrokina
H Lee
C Kim
Schizas
Repond
72 - 24 = 48 spots
Comeback Skaters - these skaters will get 2 assignments initially:
You
Hendrickx* - she doesn't technically qualify as a Comeback Skater because she competed in Shanghai Trophy, but I'm betting the GP Hosts overlook that seeing as it's an invitational that qualifies neither for WS or SB - I just can't see any way the GP Hosts are going to exclude her as a 2-time Worlds medalist.
48 - 4 = 44 spots
WS & SB Top 24 (excluding the Seeded/Invited Skaters listed above) - these skaters will get 2 assignments initially:
6/19 - Gubanova
8/15 - Yoshida
12/7 - Lin-Gracey
13/20 - Gutmann
15/23 - Watanabe
16/12 - Tennell
18/14 - Everhardt
24/13 - Sumiyoshi
44 - 16 = 28 spots
SB Top 24 (excluding the Seeded/Invited Skaters listed above) - these skaters will get 2 assignments initially:
11 - Nakai
17 - Matsuike
18 - Yuseong Kim - age-ineligible
21 - Wada - age-ineligible
22 - von Felten - age-ineligible
28 - 4 = 24 spots
WS Top 24 once the 2022-23 scores are removed & the 2023-24 scores are reduced to 70% (excluding the Seeded/Invited Skaters listed above) - these skaters will get 1 assignment initially:
17 - Schild SB 39
21 - Kurakova SB 58
23 - Pezzetta SB 36
2 - 3 = 21 spots
Host Spots
SkAm - 1 TBD - Cranberry Cup should be fun with Ziegler, Thorngren SB 46, Andrews & J Lee SB 69 trying to nab this host spot - my early money is on either Starr or Ava Marie
CoC - 3 - Zhu SB 71 should get one of these spots, maybe An, though she's not on the SB Top 75, so the CFSA may make her compete for it - they may make Zhu compete for her spot too, but I'm a bit more confident that Zhu will be assigned initially; they will certainly keep their 3 host spots
SCI - 2 - Dupuis SB 50 was the highest Canadian woman at 4CCs & is their silver medalist, so I expect her to be assigned initially, while the rest of their women - Medland Spence SB 41, Shiryaeva SB 48, Ruiter SB 73, etc - will compete domestically for the remaining host spot
NHK - 1 TBD - the JSF will, like the USFS, make skaters like Aoki SB 25, Takagi SB 34, Mihara SB 52 & Kushida SB 72 earn the assignment at their regionals next fall
GPdF - 3 - Schild SB 39 will get a host spot in addition to a 2nd assignment elsewhere, Serna SB 42 will get a host spot, the 2nd spot will be filled, somehow, I suppose, by a skater we all think has no business getting a GP over a bunch of better skaters, especially ones high up on the Alternates List
Finlandia - 3 - probably all TBD on the initial assignments list, though I could see the Finnish fed rewarding Ceder SB 75 for securing their Olympic spot with one right out of the gate, they may also assign Karhunen SB 51 & Jyrkinen SB 63 with assignments initially, or they may have to earn them since there are other Finnish women like Lisko, Ounasvuori & Pelkonen who can beat the rest of them on any given day
21 - 13 = 8 spots
Aoki SB 25 will get 1 & that will max JPN out on the GP with 3 women in each event - though she may wind up with a 2nd GP if the JSF awards her their NHK Host TBD spot
Samodelkina SB 28 & J Shin SB 29 are either 1st season seniors or rising juniors & the GP Hosts tend to reward skaters like them who are just on the cusp of climbing into the SB Top 24, so I expect they will both get 2 GPs (Nina Pinzarrone is the most recent example of a skater who fits this criteria and got 2 GPs initially back in 2023 when she was SB 26 for the 22-23 season).
Kaiser SB 30 will get 1 - she fits more closely the scenario of Kurakova a few years ago when she was SB 31 for the 22-23 season and got 1 GP on the initial assignments list for the 2023 GPs.
Yun SB 35 will get 1 - maybe? I tend to think she'll get one because she's appreciably higher on the SB list than any of the host fed women who may be hoping for either an initial assignment or a 2nd one - this could go either way - the GP Hosts did go out of their way to give Serna a 2nd GP last season on the initial assignments when she was SB 41, but they didn't give Pelkonen a 2nd one on that same initial assignments list when she was SB 43, and Lin-Gracey didn't get any on the initial assignments though she was SB 44.
Medland Spence SB 41 - probably will get 1 elsewhere, but may not - I waffle back and forth between her getting 1 initially and Kaiser getting a 2nd or Yun getting one at all. Right now, I'm leaning toward her getting 1 initially, which gives Skate Canada a little wiggle room with that SCI Host TBD spot to go to someone else & get at least 4 of their women on the GP circuit.
and was wondering if they would split. They no longer seem well matched to me, and they're not scoring well even when clean(ish).
