2024-25 US Pairs Discussion - Triple-Twisting Through Tornado Alley

[Karen-W]

This is part of what confuses me. Maybe those of members who have been through it can speak more to it, but hiding your marriage and not acting married in any way seems like it would be a red flag for immigration.

As I said after the SP press conference when this question first came up, I don't think we can assume they're hiding anything from the people who they know personally. Clearly, Misha hasn't shared anything with the public about being married, but neither did Piper Gilles when she and her husband first married.

All we know at this point is that Misha has been married for at least 3 months (presuming he was married at the time of the mortgage application & the application-to-recording time was within the industry standard 45-day window). For all we know, everyone in their families, their friend circles, their training group and SCoB are aware of their marital statuses & the identity of his spouse.

 

[Cpomfan]

exactly you can't be like "we think we'll be good by milan" with no explanation when 2 of the US's flyest ice dancers have been fighting for citizenship for 84 years at this point and expect that people will go "yes this makes sense" and just move on

IF it turns out that Misha and Alisa are married and by some miracle be eligible to qualify for the Milano Olympics [I don't think they will], I would be lowkey straight up pissed if where Christina Carreira, especially how she has been representing US for 10 or 11 years by now and how much struggle she had to go though just to get a green card.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Some people have private social media accounts. Others don't post to social media about their private lives at all. There's a lot more than appearing lovey dovey on social media or even in KnC that matters to the INS, who are looking for evidence of co-mingled finances, where people live, how much they know about each others' families, etc.

I'll never forget reading an interview with Dave DeBusschere, who was Bill Bradley's BFF and travel companion on the NY Knicks. (I think they were roommates on the road, which is unimagineable these days for pro basketball.) When Bill Bradley showed up married to his first wife, DeBusschere was shocked, because he didn't even know Bradley was dating his by-then wife.

If people want to keep things quiet or with a confined circle that understands their reasons and agrees to keep their mouths shut -- for whatever reasons -- they usually can, up to a point, even if they are well known.

 

[Tinycities]

IF it turns out that Misha and Alisa are married and by some miracle be eligible to qualify for the Milano Olympics [I don't think they will], I would be lowkey straight up pissed if where Christina Carreira, especially how she has been representing US for 10 or 11 years by now and how much struggle she had to go though just to get a green card.

I just don’t think the situations need to be compared?

I think both Christina carreira and vadym kolesnik are on track for citizenship in the method they chose to pursue and if this works for Alisa efimova, then good for her I guess. I don’t think we need to spite someone for doing something that doesn’t necessarily affect the other skaters. If efimova gets citizenship, it’s not going to be in place of Christina. And also, we don’t know these people, we don’t know their personal lives and why they potentially made specific choices, it’s not really any of our business to dictate the choices of grown adults.

 

[Vagabond]

Tarasova&Morozov were like that. They dated for several years and even though they never got married officially Trankov described them as fighting like divorcees.

I am sorry, but I can't help it. Even after all these years, when I read stuff like this, I still immediately picture Tatiana and Nikolai, not Evgenia and Vladimir.

 

[skylark]

If USFS's strategey is to only send Olympic-eligible teams to high level international competitions, then why did they send Efimova & Mitrofanov? Maybe felt their hand was forced since they clearly won Nationals?

this is a very late response I know. But I remember reading the protocol for sending skaters to Worlds. It clearly stated that the team or skater who won the gold medal at Nationals would claim a spot at Worlds, unless of course they had to withdraw for some reason. Then, if there's a second and third spot to fill, the other things like body of work, starting with the previous season, would be taken into consideration.

 

[zigzig]

Ellie and Danny looked great at 4CC in the short. Wishing them a strong long that will win them a medal.

 

[Karen-W]

Ellie and Danny looked great at 4CC in the short. Wishing them a strong long that will win them a medal.

They looked great at US Nats in the SP too.

I do hope they're able to hold on for a medal - and wouldn't mind seeing EfiMit move up at least one spot too. We need the positive momentum going into Worlds so that we have a shot at securing 3 spots.

 

[PRlady]

They looked great at US Nats in the SP too.

I do hope they're able to hold on for a medal - and wouldn't mind seeing EfiMit move up at least one spot too. We need the positive momentum going into Worlds so that we have a shot at securing 3 spots.

Well, nope. TBH I’m not sure we need three spots especially if two leading pairs can’t even go. Italy is the only country needing three spots if Bec/Guar return to form.

(Russia may too but tant pis, I’m hoping Mish/Gal’s war cheerleading keeps them home.)

 

[farahfan]

Well, nope. TBH I’m not sure we need three spots especially if two leading pairs can’t even go.

At 4CC, Golden Skate asked Ef/Mit about Alisa's citizenship application and they said:
“We are focusing on what we can do. For now it’s the results we can show. But we’ve given all the paperwork to our lawyers, and so they’re taking care of that.”
So if results are linked to getting citizenship, I suppose they are preparing a petition for Congress. But without a medal at 4CC or Worlds (they're not going to podium at Worlds), I just don't see it happening.

 

[tony]

At 4CC, Golden Skate asked Ef/Mit about Alisa's citizenship application and they said:
“We are focusing on what we can do. For now it’s the results we can show. But we’ve given all the paperwork to our lawyers, and so they’re taking care of that.”

I still fail to understand how they think they are going to be able to get her citizenship in less than 3 years time, even if they did get married the week they started skating together. It's really baffling what they seem to have been told is possible.

 

[farahfan]

I still fail to understand how they think they are going to be able to get her citizenship in less than 3 years time, even if they did get married the week they started skating together. It's really baffling what they seem to have been told is possible.

I listen to just about every skating podcast and no one is taking their 2026 Olympic aims seriously. The US does not shell out talent-based citizenships. Ef would not even qualify for the special talent immigration visa.
If they found a loophole somewhere, then we are all in for a big (and pleasant?) surprise.

 

[PRlady]

Misha struck me as a very intelligent, grounded guy in his interviews after the plane crash. Even if Alisa doesn’t understand the American system, he should.

I have one friend with a son struggling to get his Filipina wife a Green Card and another Israeli friend, US citizen, struggling to get her husband a GC. Both hear that the process has ground to a stop under the new regime.

 

[farahfan]

I have one friend with a son struggling to get his Filipina wife a Green Card and another Israeli friend, US citizen, struggling to get her husband a GC. Both hear that the process has ground to a stop under the new regime.

I wouldn't be surprised if Ef already has her green card and is already applying for citizenship. A marriage green card takes about a year, from what my friends have told me. The timeline would fit. If Ef doesn't even have her green card yet then the whole thing sounds even wilder.
Let me just stress that I don't know anything more than the evidence that has already surfaced. Anything beyond that is just me trying to make sense of the hope they manifest and how it would impact pairs.

 

[tony]

I wouldn't be surprised if Ef already has her green card and is already applying for citizenship. A marriage green card takes about a year, from what my friends have told me. The timeline would fit. If Ef doesn't even have her green card yet then the whole thing sounds even wilder.
Let me just stress that I don't know anything more than the evidence that has already surfaced. Anything beyond that is just me trying to make sense of the hope they manifest and how it would impact pairs.

But we've already circled this. I'm married to a non-citizen and he's going through the process now. You get married, and then about a year after (sometimes longer) you can receive the green card and then start the process toward citizenship. But that process in itself takes 3 more years once she even has the green card.

Even if she was literally handed a green card the day she got to the United States, she still wouldn't have been married for 3 years before the 2026 Olympics.

In her case, even if they started the process in the spring/summer of 2023, she would be looking at ~June 2027 as the earliest possible time to qualify, and that's under the assumption that they got married immediately upon her getting here. The question is who is making them think shaving off a good 17 months from that process is a possibility.

 

[farahfan]

But we've already circled this. I'm married to a non-American and he's going through the process now. You get married, and then about a year after (sometimes longer) you can receive the green card and then start the process toward citizenship. But that process in itself takes 3 more years once she even has the green card.

Even if she was literally handed a green card the day she got to the United States, she still wouldn't have been married for 3 years before the 2026 Olympics.

In her case, even if they started the process in the spring/summer of 2023, she would be looking at ~June 2027 as the earliest possible time to qualify, and that's under the assumption that they got married immediately upon her getting here. The question is who is making them think shaving off a good 17 months from that process is a possibility.

Exactly, they would have to combine the marriage green card with something else: a special petition to Congress, discovery of a loophole, etc. Definitely not the process we're accustomed to, but whatever it is, Misha was confident back in July 2023 that it would work.

 

[tony]

Exactly, they would have to combine the marriage green card with something else: a special petition to Congress, discovery of a loophole, etc. Definitely not the process we're accustomed to, but whatever it is, Misha was confident back in July 2023 that it would work.

Yes, although in this early interview, he doesn't specify they were talking about 2026. It seems like lately it's shifted more to hints of 2026?

2030 would hypothetically be no problem.

 

[Karen-W]

Well, nope. TBH I’m not sure we need three spots especially if two leading pairs can’t even go. Italy is the only country needing three spots if Bec/Guar return to form.

(Russia may too but tant pis, I’m hoping Mish/Gal’s war cheerleading keeps them home.)

I can't believe you're willing to sacrifice PlaFern's chances of going to the Olympics by discarding a 3rd spot for the US, lol.

 

[farahfan]

Yes, although in this early interview, he doesn't specify they were talking about 2026.

You're right, it's not 100% clear. But in a recent interview Alisa made it clear that her goal is and always was the 2026 Olympics, so it's safe to assume they are talking about the same Olympics.
I think that's why it was devastating for her when Ruben Bloomaert suddenly retired, because she had signed on with him for the 2026 Olympics, and now she was set back a year behind and looking for a new partner. She was already giving interviews in German with Bloomeart, the citizenship should have been feasible...

 

[farahfan]

I can't believe you're willing to sacrifice PlaFern's chances of going to the Olympics by discarding a 3rd spot for the US, lol.

I still have hope Pla/Fern will take that second spot!

 

[PRlady]

But we've already circled this. I'm married to a non-citizen and he's going through the process now. You get married, and then about a year after (sometimes longer) you can receive the green card and then start the process toward citizenship. But that process in itself takes 3 more years once she even has the green card.

Even if she was literally handed a green card the day she got to the United States, she still wouldn't have been married for 3 years before the 2026 Olympics.

In her case, even if they started the process in the spring/summer of 2023, she would be looking at ~June 2027 as the earliest possible time to qualify, and that's under the assumption that they got married immediately upon her getting here. The question is who is making them think shaving off a good 17 months from that process is a possibility.

One more thing: some countries of origin are easier than others. Your spouse and mine are from place with good relationships with US and ease of checking requirements. Russia is not one of those places and although Finland probably is, Alisa’s existing dual citizenship is problematic.

The backlog for Filipinos is horrific.

 

[Karen-W]

I still have hope Pla/Fern will take that second third spot!

Fixed that for ya!

We need to believe and manifest the USA into earning that third spot - first in Boston with KamOSh & EfiMit earning placements totaling less than 13 points, and then with actually getting one of the 3 spots available at the OQE next September.

 

[Aceon6]

Fixed that for ya!

We need to believe and manifest the USA into earning that third spot - first in Boston with KamOSh & EfiMit earning placements totaling less than 13 points, and then with actually getting one of the 3 spots available at the OQE next September.

Not gonna happen. The top US team will be lucky to be 6th. Landing stuff is important.

 

[her grace]

One more thing: some countries of origin are easier than others. Your spouse and mine are from place with good relationships with US and ease of checking requirements. Russia is not one of those places

Who says Russia is not (or won’t be) one of those places?

After all the “We’ve always been at war with Canada” attitude the U.S. government has shown in the last month, I can easily see the U.S. always having been allies with Russia, too.

 

[Karen-W]

Not gonna happen. The top US team will be lucky to be 6th. Landing stuff is important.

So, right now, of the top 10 teams who will be at Worlds, KamOSh have the 6th highest SB and EfiMit have the 10th highest. However, a closer analysis is required of the teams sitting in 7-9 ahead of EfiMit.

1) PavSvia are 9th, just .40 ahead of EfiMit and their SB came at Lombardia. Their Euros score was about .6 lower with 1 fall in the FS. Their ceiling, when skating clean, is obviously lower than EfiMit. Even a one-error competition from EfiMit is likely to beat PavSvia, especially when you factor in the home ice advantage for EfiMit.

2) GhiAmbro are sitting in 8th and haven't come close to matching their SB from Lombardia since. It is not unreasonable to expect that EfiMit will beat them in Boston.

3) PerMich are sitting in 7th and had two dream skates at 4CCs - their best skates of the season by a large margin. But, again, had EfiMit been clean as well in Seoul, it's doubtful that PerMich would have won the bronze over them.

Moving on to look at the teams in the Top 6 who are ahead of KamOSh. I don't think they're capable of catching MiuKih or MiNiki (1st & 2nd on the SB list) - at least, not if all three skate clean. So, moving on to the 3-5 teams.

1) MetBeru are in 3rd - they managed one really good skate at NHK and one decent program at the GPF. They also have had two stinker competitions at SkAm and Euros where they scored well below what they're capable of. Their Euros bronze score, for what it's worth, is lower than EfiMit's 5th place 4CCs score, just as a comparison. I think they're just as likely to skate great as to skate poorly and get beat by any number of teams in the SB Top 10 - and, in fact, both KamOSh and EfiMit beat them at SkAm. I see no reason to believe that can't happen again at Worlds.

2) ConMac are probably the biggest obstacle in this group, with the 4th highest SB. They're consistently scoring 200+ this season - and they're on a mission to get back on the Worlds podium. I don't know that I think KamOSh can overtake them, to be fair.

3) SDDes have the 5th best SB and, like ConMac, it will require perfection for KamOSh to surpass them, but it also will require SDDes to skate clean again in Boston. Odds are, given how inconsistent KamOSh are, that SDDes will win out.

Overall, my projection for Worlds is KamOSh 5th and EfiMit 7th, with MetBeru doing enough to split the difference between the two of them and PerMich, PavSvia & GhiAmbro rounding out the Worlds top 10.

 

[farahfan]

1) MetBeru are in 3rd - they managed one really good skate at NHK and one decent program at the GPF. They also have had two stinker competitions at SkAm and Euros where they scored well below what they're capable of. Their Euros bronze score, for what it's worth, is lower than EfiMit's 5th place 4CCs score, just as a comparison. I think they're just as likely to skate great as to skate poorly and get beat by any number of teams in the SB Top 10 - and, in fact, both KamOSh and EfiMit beat them at SkAm. I see no reason to believe that can't happen again at Worlds.

I think it's more likely Kam/OShea will flop than Met/Ber. SKAM was their first competition of the year and a rough awakening. At Europeans, they pulled off a big comeback to get onto the podium. The rest of their scores are consistently in the 200s. I don't trust the Americans nerves as much, even on home ice.

 

[Karen-W]

I think it's more likely Kam/OShea will flop than Met/Ber. SKAM was their first competition of the year and a rough awakening. At Europeans, they pulled off a big comeback to get onto the podium. The rest of their scores are consistently in the 200s. I don't trust the Americans nerves as much, even on home ice.

Even if MetBeru finish ahead of KamOSh, you're still looking at a 6th/7th finish, which gets the USA 2 spots+1 entry at the OQE.

 

[PRlady]

I think the Ruzbeks could beat a US team; they’re polished and consistent. But generally, given Kam’s history on throws and Efimova’s on SBS jumps, the odds against both teams skating two clean enough programs to total 13 or less are…shaky.

But be as optimistic as you like, we are all entitled to our dreams.

 

[clairecloutier]

I think the home crowd could make a real difference for both teams in Boston. We saw it with Alisa/Misha at Nationals. And they'll be skating at home too; they'll know everyone from SCOB will be there. It's pressure ... but I hope & believe it will be good pressure.

 

[A.H.Black]

At 4CC, Golden Skate asked Ef/Mit about Alisa's citizenship application and they said:
“We are focusing on what we can do. For now it’s the results we can show. But we’ve given all the paperwork to our lawyers, and so they’re taking care of that.”
So if results are linked to getting citizenship, I suppose they are preparing a petition for Congress. But without a medal at 4CC or Worlds (they're not going to podium at Worlds), I just don't see it happening.

I guess I'm reading this differently than others. It sounds to me like Efimova is trying not to worry about the citizenship part - like she knows that what happens - happens. She is trying to concentrate on the skating - exactly as she should.