Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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I suppose there is no altruism in figure skating competition...just wish G/K could get a spot because it seems to me that they have a viable path to Milan. But maybe it's too early to say.
Theoretically, say the Worlds results look like this:The best way for GamKor to secure a spot is to compete in another Challenger and increase their SB score, which would move them up the GP Alternates list. Unfortunately, the October Challengers do not have Pairs as part of the Challenger event (both Budapest and Metropole Nice are including pairs as a Senior B). They showed tremendous improvement at John Nicks IPC compared to last season.
I'll take the rest of my thoughts on teams likely to qualify for Milano-Cortina to the Pairs general discussion thread over in the Trash Can.![]()
1) Hase/Volodin GER
2) Conti/Macii ITA
3) Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps CAN
4) Miura/Kihara JPN
5) Chan/Howe or Kam/O'Shea USA
6) Pavlova/Sviatchenko HUN
7) Chan/Howe or Kam/O'Shea USA
8) Ghilardi/Ambrosini or Beccari/Guarise ITA
9) Metelkina/Berulava GEO
10) Pereira/Michaud CAN
11) Hocke/Kunkel GER
12) Golubeva/Giotopoulos Moore AUS
13) Geynish/Chigirev UZB
14) Danilova/Tsiba NED
15) Chtchetinina/Wozniak POL
16) Vaipan-Law/Digby GBR
17) Laurin/Ethier CAN
18) Vaananen/Clerici FIN
19) Holichenko/Darenskiy UKR
20) Gamez/Korovin PHI
----- FS not reached
21) Kovalev/Kovalev FRA
22) Nagaoka/Moriguchi JPN
23) Roscher/Schuster GER
24) Schaller/Mayr AUT
25) Wang/Zhu CHN
26) Ryom/Han PRK
27) Kucianova/Bidar CZE
28) Crafoord/Crafoord SWE
29) Vouillamoz/Bouvart SUI
Presuming all of those teams who do not make the FS earn the Worlds CTES mins - if not, they or another team from their country will still be allowed to enter the Olympic Qualifying Competition next fall.
So, with the scenario above - which may be generous for the US (but it is a home Worlds and the USFS is going to be pushing hard to qualify to send 3 teams to Milano-Cortina). Unlike qualifying spots for Worlds the following year where it's a simple math of your country's two highest placements in the FS (ie - for Germany 1+11 = 12 = 3 spots for the following Worlds), for the Olympics, you are only guaranteed the spots for the # of teams who you have that qualify for the FS at Worlds. In Germany's case here, because Roscher/Schuster did not reach the FS, Germany would earn 2 guaranteed spots in Milano-Cortina and earn the right to send a team to compete at the Olympic Qualifying Competition for one of the 3 spots to be allocated there.
With that in mind, here's how the 16 spots available for allocation at Worlds for Milano-Cortina would play out:
Germany - 1+11 = 12 = 2 spots (MiNiki & HocKun in FS) + 1 team at OQC
Italy - 2+8 = 10 = 2 spots (ConMac & BecGuar/GhiAmbro in FS) + 1 team at OQC
Canada - 3+10 = 13 = 3 spots (SDDes, PerMich & LaurEth in FS)
Japan - 4+16 = 20 = 1 spot (MiuKih in FS) + 1 team at OQC
USA - 5+7 = 12 = 2 spots (ChanHowe & KamOShea in FS) + 1 team at OQC
Hungary = 6 = 1 spot (PavSvia in FS) + 1 team at OQC
Georgia = 9 = 1 spot (MetBeru in FS) + 1 team at OQC
Australia = 12 = 1 spot (GoluGM in FS)
Uzbekistan = 13 = 1 spot (GeyChig in FS)
Netherlands = 14 = 1 spot (DanTsi in FS)
Poland = 15 = 1 spot (ChtWoz in FS)
Every other country, even those who make the FS in Boston, are going to be going to the OQC next fall to compete for THREE spots. Now, let's forecast who the likely entrants for that competition will be - for countries that have already earned spots, they may not send a team that competed in the FS (so no MiNiki, ConMac, ChanHowe, etc). I'm going to list these countries by order of PB.
Italy - Ghilardi/Ambrosini 195.68
USA - Efimova/Mitrofanov 188.88
France - Kovalev/Kovalev 179.85 (2 seasons ago - coming back from injury - debuting at Tayside Trophy)
Great Britain - Vaipan-Law/Digby 174.68
Finland - Vaananen/Clerici 172.31
Germany - Roscher/Schuster 170.65 (151.29 24-25 SB - coming back from injury)
Ukraine - Holichenko/Darenskiy 162.17
China - Zhang/Huang 159.76 (junior team that will be age-eligible next season with higher scoring potential than their current senior teams)
Japan - Nagaoka/Moriguchi 158.90
Philippines - Gamez/Korovin 157.04
Austria - Schaller/Mayr 150.35
Czechia - Kucianova/Bidar 144.63
North Korea - Ryom/Han 143.63
Sweden - Crafoord/Crafoord 142.32
South Africa - Mauder/Wilkinson 127.33
Israel - Enkina/Kovalenko 124.81 (senior age-eligible next season)
Switzerland - Vouillamoz/Bouvart 0.00 (haven't competed yet)
Hungary & Georgia - no one unless they have new Rent-a-Russian teams who execute a country switch
Realistically - if the USA and ITA both qualify to send a team to the OQC next fall, the chances of either country not securing a 3rd spot are really low. A bad score for teams like GhiAmbr and EfiMit is in the mid-170s and that's where teams like VLDigs, VaanCler and Les Kovs are capable of scoring on their BEST day.
I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that GamKor can earn an Olympic spot, but I'd be hoping that the Worlds results actually wind up something like this:
1) Hase/Volodin GER
2) Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps CAN
3) Miura/Kihara JPN
4) Conti/Macii ITA
5) Chan/Howe or Kam/O'Shea USA
6) Pavlova/Sviatchenko HUN
7) Metelkina/Berulava GEO
8) Hocke/Kunkel GER
9) Chan/Howe or Kam/O'Shea USA
10) Ghilardi/Ambrosini or Beccari/Guarise ITA
11) Pereira/Michaud CAN
12) Golubeva/Giotopoulos Moore AUS
13) Geynish/Chigirev UZB
14) Danilova/Tsiba NED
15) Chtchetinina/Wozniak POL
16) Vaipan-Law/Digby GBR
17) Laurin/Ethier CAN
18) Vaananen/Clerici FIN
19) Holichenko/Darenskiy UKR
20) Gamez/Korovin PHI
----- FS not reached
21) Kovalev/Kovalev FRA
22) Nagaoka/Moriguchi JPN
23) Roscher/Schuster GER
24) Schaller/Mayr AUT
25) Wang/Zhu CHN
26) Ryom/Han PRK
27) Kucianova/Bidar CZE
28) Crafoord/Crafoord SWE
29) Vouillamoz/Bouvart SUI
That's a scenario where:
Germany - 1+8 = 9= 2 spots (MiNiki & HocKun in FS) + 1 team at OQC
Italy - 4+10 = 14 = 2 spots (ConMac & BecGuar/GhiAmbro in FS)
Canada - 2+11 = 13 = 3 spots (SDDes, PerMich & LaurEth in FS)
Japan - 3+16 = 19 = 1 spot (MiuKih in FS) + 1 team at OQC
USA - 5+9 = 14 = 2 spots (ChanHowe & KamOShea in FS)
Hungary = 6 = 1 spot (PavSvia in FS) + 1 team at OQC
Georgia = 7 = 1 spot (MetBeru in FS) + 1 team at OQC
Australia = 12 = 1 spot (GoluGM in FS)
Uzbekistan = 13 = 1 spot (GeyChig in FS)
Netherlands = 14 = 1 spot (DanTsi in FS)
Poland = 15 = 1 spot (ChtWoz in FS)
In that situation, GamKor's chances are much improved because they're at least competitive with the likes of RoSchu and NagaMori and can possibly beat them. Still have to get through the likes of LesKovs, VLDigs, VaanCler, HolDar and ZhaHua, but that's an easier path than they have with a ITA & USA also in the mix.
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