2018-19 GP Spots up for grabs - RUS, USA, CAN, and JPN

[haribobo]

So I was looking at the SB standings top 30 in singles to figure out who should be guaranteed GP spots next season. I know its top 24 but I imagine some skaters will be taking time off and/or retiring next season so I expanded to 30 and ultimately wanted to figure out which spots at the upcoming Nationals will be most important. Even if Nationals ranking doesn't directly translate into GP spots, placement dictates assignments which dictates opportunities to gain a SB score in the top 30. As such, here is what I see as the key placements at this year's Nationals for each country...

RUSSIA-
Ladies- anything inside top 10 at Nationals is epic at this point. This is kind of a mess with so many skaters in the top 30. I sense the GP and JGP series skaters will be very similar to this season. Will be interesting to see what happens with Leonova, Konstantinova, Tuktamysheva, Sakhanovich, and Mikhailova at Nationals, and what Pogo will do from here.

Men- 1-4 is locked up and guaranteed spots. 5th-7th place at Nationals is key. Erokhov, Dmitriev, Kovtun, and Petrov are key contendors for these spots, presumably.

CANADA-
Ladies- 3-5 place is key. Contendors include Cotop, Decelles, Pineault, Long, Chartrand, Austman...and Schumacher is doing well in Juniors but probably staying on JGP another year.

Men- this is a weird one because Chan, Messing, Firus, and Nguyen have top 30 scores but may not be the top 4 at Nationals. I'll just go ahead and say anyone in top 6 at Nationals will get themselves in the game. Nadeau, Joseph Phan, Reynolds, Sadovsky, Balde are contendors. Gogolev could hit top 6 but is still young and will do JGP next year I think finally.

JAPAN-
Ladies- basically same as Russian Ladies- top 10 will be huge. Will be watching Rika Kihira, Yura Matsuda, and Yuna Shiraiwa's placements...whoever can defeat one or more of them could factor for a GP spot.

Men- its definitely time for Nationals because this category is in major disarray. Hanyu has been injured, Uno is way out ahead, and the battle between Tanaka and Mura is unsettled. Only those 4 are top 30. Spots 4-7 will be key this year...contendors are Tomono, Ryuju Hino, Daisuke Murakami, among others.

USA- oh boy...
Ladies- Mariah Bell, Tennell, and Nagasu are top 30 right now. Chen and Wagner are close and could be by seasons' end, I guess. So spots 6-8 are key. Contendors look to be Ma, Hicks, Zhang, Wang, Starr, Hong, etc...

Men- the 5 constantly bandied about for Olympic team + Alexei K. are top 30. We could see a few retirements here so spots 6-8 will be big. Contendors include Dolensky, Hochstein, Johnson, Rabbitt, Camden P., Ross Miner (retiring?)

Lots of good battles coming up. Of the Nationals that have already occurred, here is who I see taking a leap forward...

France
Ladies- Laurine and Meite aren't top 30 but they and Lea Serna look good for at least 1 GP spot and I could see one for Lea Serna as well.
Men- same here, not top 30, but Aymoz and Chafik get host spots with Ponsart getting 3rd and Adam Siao Him Fa back on JGP.

Germany
Ladies- Schott isn't top 30 but will probably get on GP, and that's about it.
Men -Fentz same thing. Liebers retiring?

Italy
Ladies- Kostner retiring? Nobody else top 30 or likely to get there. We will see how Russo does at Euros.
Men- Rizzo in top 30. Not seeming too likely for Righini.

 

[RoseRed]

For the US, Grant and Ross have said they're retiring, as has Caroline.

 

[Sylvia]

I don't recall Ross Miner being quoted directly about retiring for certain? Just that it "probably" will be his last as a competitor.

 

[RoseRed]

I don't recall Ross Miner being quoted directly about retiring for certain? Just that it "probably" will be his last as a competitor.

I might have it wrong since I didn't save the source, but I thought I saw something from him confirming it.

 

[Sylvia]

I might have it wrong since I didn't save the source, but I thought I saw something from him confirming it.

Do you have a source link for Caroline Zhang?

 

[Coco]

USA- oh boy...
Ladies- Mariah Bell, Tennell, and Nagasu are top 30 right now. Chen and Wagner are close...(to top 30)

That's kind of wild in and of itself.

 

[Vagabond]

USA- oh boy...
Ladies- Mariah Bell, Tennell, and Nagasu are top 30 right now. Chen and Wagner are close

That's kind of wild in and of itself.

Eys. Especially that last bit, which is one of the most extraordinary things I've ever seen mentioned on FSU. Right up there with "Konstantin Menshov, Russian National Champion" and "Sarah Meier, European Champion," I would say.

I would expect both Chen and Wagner, if she continues on, to qualify based on World Standings. Gracie Gold, if she chooses to compete next year, would be able to get a berth as a returning skater even if she isn't high enough in the World Standings.

 

[haribobo]

RUSSIA-
Men- 1-4 is locked up and guaranteed spots. 5th-7th place at Nationals is key. Erokhov, Dmitriev, Kovtun, and Petrov are key contendors for these spots, presumably.

Update - spots 5-7 ended up as Dmitriev (sb 33), Samoilov (sb 55), and Lazukin (sb 40). Samoilov will be 19 in May 2018 and Erokhov will be 19 in Sep 2018. Erokhov ended up 8th at Nationals. I could see a Jr. Worlds team this year of Erokhov, Samoilov, and Savosin or Ignatov. If Dmitriev continues I could see him getting a GP spot or 2 outright - for the Jr Worlds team it will depend how they score there, otherwise maybe we could see Cup of Russia going to Samoilov and Lazukin with Erokhov maybe staying back in Juniors, hard to say...

 

[haribobo]

JAPAN-
Ladies- basically same as Russian Ladies- top 10 will be huge. Will be watching Rika Kihira, Yura Matsuda, and Yuna Shiraiwa's placements...whoever can defeat one or more of them could factor for a GP spot.

So only Yuhana Yokoi (so fun!) and Mako Yamashita made top 10 of the unexpecteds. Yuhana could do another JGP season but is 17 and could also do seniors and fit in nicely. Yamashita is still young and will probably have another JGP year.

Junior Worlds race is pretty packed with Kihira (obvious), then 2 of Honda, Shiraiwa, Yokoi, Yamashita, and Araki. Wakaba is still young enough FYI too...

 

[haribobo]

RUSSIA-
Ladies- anything inside top 10 at Nationals is epic at this point. This is kind of a mess with so many skaters in the top 30. I sense the GP and JGP series skaters will be very similar to this season. Will be interesting to see what happens with Leonova, Konstantinova, Tuktamysheva, Sakhanovich, and Mikhailova at Nationals, and what Pogo will do from here.

I think this National result will push Konstantinova and Kostornaia up to Senior GP next season. The only not-in-top-30 SB skater in the top 10 here is Gubanova (SB 65), but as she has SO much competition for the 3 Junior Worlds spots, not sure if she will get a chance to improve that standing, anyway she is young enough to do a few more JGP seasons...disappointing result for Leonova and Mikhailova here, but whatever.

 

[RoseRed]

I think this National result will push Konstantinova and Kostornaia up to Senior GP next season. The only not-in-top-30 SB skater in the top 10 here is Gubanova (SB 65), but as she has SO much competition for the 3 Junior Worlds spots, not sure if she will get a chance to improve that standing, anyway she is young enough to do a few more JGP seasons...disappointing result for Leonova and Mikhailova here, but whatever.

Kostornaia isn't old enough for the Sr. GP next season. She's born on August 24th 2003, so she'll only be 14 next July 1st.

 

[her grace]

For Japan, Miyahara, Higuchi, Sakamoto, Mihara, Honda and maybe Hongo should get two GP spots each. Kihira should definitely move up. That 3a of hers is Can't see Japan lobbying for Matsuda after only giving her one challenger this season combined with her so-so finish at nationals. Shiraiwa is right on the border of a guaranteed assignment (WS 28, SB 24). If she goes to junior worlds, she would have a chance to solidify her guaranteed GP status. Yokoi is only 50 on the SB list; again, she may be able to raise this if she goes to junior worlds. With her current low position and lack of international results, I suspect she would be sent back to the JGP. Yamashita could go either way; she's SB 39 and she already has four medals from the JGP. Araki is likely to return to the JGP.

For Russia, so much depends on who is sticking around. At this point in the season based on top 24 in WS or top 24 in SB, each of these Russians is entitled to one GP: Medvedeva, Sotskova, Pogorilaya, Zagitova, Radionova, Tuktamysheva, Tsurskaya, Konstantinova, and Panenkova. That's nine Russians already. Of course, the lists will change as the big championship points are added and 2015/16's data is purged, but it's going to be tight to get on the GP. Probably some of these skaters will move on or take a season off. Skaters just below them on the SB list are: Samodurova (26), Leonova (27), Sakhanovich (29), Mikhailova (32), Guiliakova (38), and Fedichkina (40).

 

[haribobo]

Men- its definitely time for Nationals because this category is in major disarray. Hanyu has been injured, Uno is way out ahead, and the battle between Tanaka and Mura is unsettled. Only those 4 are top 30. Spots 4-7 will be key this year...contendors are Tomono, Ryuju Hino, Daisuke Murakami, among others.

4-7 ended up pretty much as expected- Tomono (SB 32), Murakami (SB 66), Sumoto (SB 51), and Hino (SB 94). I think the first 2 could get 4CC and Sumoto Jr Worlds.