Many (I'd say most) teams don't make it to GPF/4CC/Euros/Worlds and most don't repeat programs. I mean even without the two falls, they probably wouldn't have been able to do it at 4CC and Worlds anyway. I'm just saying it's very rare in ice dance but it may become normalized in the way it is for singles where most singles don't repeat programs but doing so isn't as frowned upon as it is in ice dance.
If Hawayek & Baker had skated it well at Nationals, I would frown on it. But they didn't.
There really are very few dance teams that have programs capable of earning a top 12 SB in the World and missing the post season. (And Ilinykh & Zhiganshin's likely disappearance just cut the number in half). Generally speaking, if you skate your programs to their potential during the season, your best chance of moving up in dance the following year is a new FD. The chance of H&B doing well enough this season to change a trend that has existed for decades just isn't high, IMO.
I'd like to see H&B come up with a new program and really try to chase down Guignard & Fabbri and Stepanova & Bukin, but the reality is that H&B may never even go up against those teams this season. They
will be going up against a slate of young dance teams--Loboda & Drozd at SC, Pogrebinsky & Benoit, McNamara & Carpenter, and the Parsons at Nationals.
Liebstraum may give H&B a strong enough start out of the gate to hold off the charge. And it may, at its best, challenge Tobias & Tkachenko at SA. That's the mark, IMO. The field at SC is actually pretty weak once you get off the podium. H&B could come 4th there. But SA will likely have 8 teams with SB scores in the top 24. If you can defeat Tobias & Tkachenko there, IMO, it will be a win for any of these mid-tier teams. (Who the heck knows what will happen with Sinitsina & Katsalapov?) If H&B go down to the Parsons or McNamara & Carpenter there, good-bye three-year senior advantage.
