Canadian team selections: Four Continents, Worlds, Junior Worlds

[clairecloutier]

But Roman almost matched his Nebelhorn SP score at MK Wilson (89.49), and won the short program there. His lowest international SP score this season is 78+, which is still 5 points above Orzel's best SP. In a strong men's field at Worlds, this could make a difference.

Like I said, I imagine SC will be looking at those 4CCs SP scores to assess the growth potential for Orzel and Gogolev.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Super busy day for me but why are Brooke and Ben not going to 4CC but they are going to worlds? They were the silver medalist. And why are Deanna and Maxime doing 4CC at all

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Hmmmm I need a stiff drink before I scroll up and attempt to analyze Canadas selection for these next events

 

[Sylvia]

And why are Deanna and Maxime doing 4CC at all

Because they won the gold and they want to?

 

[kwanfan1818]

But Roman almost matched his Nebelhorn SP score at MK Wilson (89.49), and won the short program there. His lowest international SP score this season is 78+, which is still 5 points above Orzel's best SP. In a strong men's field at Worlds, this could make a difference.

Like I said, I imagine SC will be looking at those 4CCs SP scores to assess the growth potential for Orzel and Gogolev.

Especially since Messing, while aiming for WTT and the team atmosphere, has been all over the place since last Worlds, and if Canada wants to keep two Men's spots, having a second skater who will make the FS means that Messing will not have to be Top 10. He's obviously capable of doing that, but his Worlds record so far is 50/50.

 

[RoseRed]

But Roman almost matched his Nebelhorn SP score at MK Wilson (89.49), and won the short program there. His lowest international SP score this season is 78+, which is still 5 points above Orzel's best SP. In a strong men's field at Worlds, this could make a difference.

Like I said, I imagine SC will be looking at those 4CCs SP scores to assess the growth potential for Orzel and Gogolev.

And at Nationals, he bombed the SP. If he skated like that at Worlds, he definitely wouldn't make the FS.

Look, I like Roman a lot. But he's far from a guarantee, and SC knows that. And he finished 8th at Nationals. It's possible he could be sent if things don't go well at 4CCs, but I don't think it's that likely.

Honestly, I think it's going to be tense no matter who they send to Worlds.

 

[kalamalka]

Orzel is the only one of the 4 being mentioned up thread (incl Gogolev, Chiu and Sadovsky) who DIDN'T bomb the SP at Canadians, and who would have made it to the free skate at Worlds with such a SP. And he's had several bad SPs internationally. I expect the worlds slot will be based on the 4CC and JW performances, with particular attention to the SP. It doesn't matter how much you can pull up in the free if you don't get there.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Because they won the gold and they want to?

Lol, Sylvia so many people were talking about her restimg and that she’s still recovering from a virus and even her voice is still half gone. That’s the only reason why I brought it up

you Make it sound as if I said something completely out of left field

 

[Dobre]

Good points. Don’t agree with all but I do think it would have been smarter to leave Deanna off the 4CC comp as at altitude and needs recovery time.

They might decide that for themselves. I don't think the federation would decide it for them, though.

If I were Skate Canada, I'd be looking closely at the 4CCs SP scores, to see if Orzel or Gogolev can improve there.

In a men's event at high altitude? I would just be looking for can they skate a solid enough SP to make the free skate at Worlds.

 

[4rkidz]

They might decide that for themselves. I don't think the federation would decide it for them, though.

In a men's event at high altitude? I would just be looking for can they skate a solid enough SP to make the free skate at Worlds.

Of course, like many aspects of the naming they also have to agree or want to go.
Agreed the short programs are key.

 

[dramagrrl]

I'm sorry, but I don't understand why people are still holding out hope/hoping for SC to give more chances to Roman. He has proven time and time again, year after year, that he cannot compete under pressure.

Orzel and Gogolev are both risks because if either one of them has mistakes in the SP at Worlds, they would likely not make the cut to the FS, but both are younger than Roman and have been showing improvement and an upward trajectory rather than the opposite. Gogolev (while obviously lacking Roman's skating skills) especially has the technical content to place well if he were to skate a clean FS. Orzel to me would be more of a risk, because he would be relying entirely on landing clean jumps to place well in both the SP and the FS since his programs have almost zero choreography and transitions.

Chiu has been inconsistent, but out of the three (Gogo, Conrad, and Wesley), he is the best overall package, IMO. He is also the youngest and therefore has more time to develop both skills and consistency, but I guess he and/or SC want him to focus on JW this season.

 

[greenapple]

It seems pretty obvious that SC is on a different track than in the past, is getting its ducks in a row and looking to build a strong team well in advance of 2026. For the first time, the judges were not handing out free passes to anyone based on rep and I am all for that.

I think assigning Chiu to JW was a good strategy. It gave SC the opportunity to assign all top four guys to an international competition.

SC would have asked SD/D if they wanted to go to 4CCs. It would not just arbitrarily assign them.

 

[Sylvia]

wrong thread

(ETA: I'm watching the Women's FS at the World University Games.)

 

[Seerek]

The component marks from Nationals show SC is still Team Roman, and they're mostly undecided after that (perhaps Team Stephen, then Team Corey if he ever gets a dependable 3 axel/4 toe).

 

[greenapple]

The component marks from Nationals show SC is still Team Roman, and they're mostly undecided after that (perhaps Team Stephen, then Team Corey if he ever gets a dependable 3 axel/4 toe).

I don't think that Sadovsky's second marks are an indication of anything. I heard that Corey does have a dependable triple Axel in practice and lands them without issue. His problem is that he gets very nervous in competition and loses confidence in what he can actually do.

 

[Karen-W]

I don't think that Sadovsky's second marks are an indication of anything. I heard that Corey does have a dependable triple Axel in practice and lands them without issue. His problem is that he gets very nervous in competition and loses confidence in what he can actually do.

That is the very definition of undependable if he can't rely upon his training and muscle memory to pull the jump off in competition.

 

[Sylvia]

“Undependable” skaters can learn consistency as long as they continue to compete.

 

[Dobre]

I think Orzel and Gogolev are at least as undependable as Sadovsky. Time to send them to 4CCs and let them get the senior international experience to prove it.

(I'd hope it won't come down to a score comparison between two different events. Competing in Colorado Springs is not the same as competing elsewhere).

 

[greenapple]

(I'd hope it won't come down to a score comparison between two different events. Competing in Colorado Springs is not the same as competing elsewhere).

I hope SC uses it as a skate-off to get the competitive grit happening in these guys and that the top scorer in COS gets the World prize.

 

[greenapple]

That is the very definition of undependable if he can't rely upon his training and muscle memory to pull the jump off in competition.

Well, the same could be said of Nathan Chen, in particular at the 2018 OWG. And look what happened next...

 

[dramagrrl]

I think Orzel and Gogolev are at least as undependable as Sadovsky. Time to send them to 4CCs and let them get the senior international experience to prove it.

I agree about Orzel, but Gogolev has had very few competition experiences since his growth spurt. I'm not going to count anything from before his growth/injuries because him landing quads at 4-foot-whatever is a totally different story from him landing them now. Post-Covid, Stephen has only competed internationally five times, and one of those times was as a junior, where he placed well (5th) at JW. Orzel has competed at the senior level domestically five times, and before this year, his best result was 5th. He has also had quite a bit of senior international experience with less than stellar results.

Roman has probably had more senior international experience than both Conrad and Stephen combined, and has had very little international success.

 

[4rkidz]

I hope SC uses it as a skate-off to get the competitive grit happening in these guys and that the top scorer in COS gets the World prize.

I was under that assumption, makes sense too.

 

[cdn skate fan]

AND...what is going to happen with synchro worlds? The announcement said a final decision won't be made until February (which would be after Nova and Supremes compete against each other again at a challenger series event). Sad for Nova if they don't get to go because they laid down two clean programs at nationals and one could certainly argue that they earned a spot.....but how is it even possible that Supremes, the reining world champs, would not even qualify for worlds this year??

 

[clairecloutier]

In 5 full senior seasons, Sadovsky has won 4 Challenger Series medals and one GP medal. He placed 12th in his sole Worlds appearance.

In 3 full senior seasons, Orzel has won 1 senior B medal so far.

This is Gogolev’s first full senior season, no medals so far.

 

[dramagrrl]

In 5 full senior seasons, Sadovsky has won 4 Challenger Series medals and one GP medal. He placed 12th in his sole Worlds appearance.

In 3 full senior seasons, Orzel has won 1 senior B medal so far.

This is Gogolev’s first full senior season, no medals so far.

Sadovsky has also placed tenth or lower in at least half (if not more; I can't remember exact numbers) of his GP events over the years, and 29th at the Olympics. He has skated as a senior at Canadians nine times and has placed out of the top 5 six of those times.

I am not a big fan of Orzel, and he has also had very inconsistent results, but he has skated as a senior at Canadians five times and placed in the top 5 twice. He has done poorly in his GPs, but he has had about half the number of GP chances as Roman has.

My continued point is that Roman has been given many, many chances over several years and has choked under pressure repeatedly. Hoping that he will suddenly develop competitive nerves or any kind of consistency at this point is a pipe dream, IMO.

 

[Dobre]

I'll just dispute the wording.

Roman earned his three major international chances. He did bomb at two out of three of them spectacularly; but he wasn't just given them. He did earn them. And if he sits home this season, he will have earned that too. I see no reason to think he's not as much in the game as he's ever been, within the longterm at least. Just reason to think that Canada does need to give these other guys a shot at earning their own major international chance(s) after defeating him at Nationals. Sending them to 4CCs at least gives them the opportunity to even the body-of-work situation. Which the Canadian Fed has good reason to do because neither Gogolev's nor Sadovsky's SP at Nationals would have been likely to make many a men's free skate at Worlds.

Though this Nationals did remind me of at least one Russian Nationals when I thought it would be best to just name the team and put everyone out of their agony because every time one of the guys had an edge, he seemed doomed to bomb at the very next event. And Colorado Springs is such a promising venue for that sort of thing.

 

[Marco]

I totally understand that Keegan would want to do Worlds and WTT - but does he want to do 4CCs too with his second child coming? If he doesn't insist, perhaps SC can / should have arranged a skate-off at 4CCs for Stephen, Conrad and Wesley. That's probably easier than comparing Stephen vs Conrad there against Wesley at Junior Worlds.

I had thought all along that Kaiya does not have the 4CCs mins because she is the silver medalist and isn't named to the 4CCs team. Now that it appears she is deliberately being skipped over, I suspect it is because SC intends to send her to WTT and so wanna give other girls some chance to 4CCs instead, and they need her at Jr Worlds. Alas the suggestion of sending Fiona to WTT may makes sense for her but also counter-intuitive in the grand scheme of things to send an eligible silver medalist to just Jr Worlds but a lesser established bronze medalist to WTT. If SC wishes to send Fiona to WTT, they should have at least sent Kaiya to 4CCs too. If SC dares, they can send Kaiya to 4CCs and WTT, and Fiona to Jr Worlds.

 

[victorskid]

AND...what is going to happen with synchro worlds? The announcement said a final decision won't be made until February (which would be after Nova and Supremes compete against each other again at a challenger series event). Sad for Nova if they don't get to go because they laid down two clean programs at nationals and one could certainly argue that they earned a spot.....but how is it even possible that Supremes, the reining world champs, would not even qualify for worlds this year??

In the interview that Ted Barton did with the Skate Canada CEO it was made clear that it was still early in the Synchro season for selections to be made - there are other competitions coming up that will feed into the final decisions. They had no intention of naming them at this time.

 

[greenapple]

I totally understand that Keegan would want to do Worlds and WTT - but does he want to do 4CCs too with his second child coming? If he doesn't insist, perhaps SC can / should have arranged a skate-off at 4CCs for Stephen, Conrad and Wesley. That's probably easier than comparing Stephen vs Conrad there against Wesley at Junior Worlds.

Keegan's child was due on Saturday so it will be born any day now one would think. He wants to compete at every competition this season and made that clear from the beginning of the season.

Why would SC need to have a skate off between those three guys? They all have an international. That decision makes total sense.

I had thought all along that Kaiya does not have the 4CCs mins because she is the silver medalist and isn't named to the 4CCs team. Now that it appears she is deliberately being skipped over, I suspect it is because SC intends to send her to WTT and so wanna give other girls some chance to 4CCs instead, and they need her at Jr Worlds. Alas the suggestion of sending Fiona to WTT may makes sense for her but also counter-intuitive in the grand scheme of things to send an eligible silver medalist to just Jr Worlds but a lesser established bronze medalist to WTT. If SC wishes to send Fiona to WTT, they should have at least sent Kaiya to 4CCs too. If SC dares, they can send Kaiya to 4CCs and WTT, and Fiona to Jr Worlds.

Kaiya Ruiter was not skipped over. She is going to Junior Worlds and three others are going to Four Continents. Again, makes total sense to give as many people as possible opportunities to compete. The teams have been named and won't be changed.

SC made the mistake of banking on the same people in the last Olympic quad and it apparently does not plan to repeat that mistake this quad. Another good decision.

Talking about who SC will and will not send to WTT at this point is unrealistic. That decision will be made based on the results of the upcoming competitions.

 

[Private Citizen]

Beyond Messing, all of the Canadian men have the same floor (do not qualify). Sadovsky has the highest ceiling and is the only one capable of a top 10 finish, which I guess is the argument to keep him under consideration. I’d argue he could potentially place as high as 6th with two perfect programs. Messing and Sadovsky, in a perfect world where everything goes right for them and goes wrong for others, are the only combination that could potentially qualify three spots. That said, the odds of either of those things are minuscule, and the odds of both together are probably in the < 1% chance range. These fantasy best case scenarios are not worth bumping other guys who finished higher and who have similar expected outcomes.

Sadovsky needs to come back next season with a clear message to show consistency and control, v. rare moments of greatness.