USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for 2022 Olympics

PRlady

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I do keep wondering where Vincent would have placed if his jumps had been called more strictly, as most of us observers thought they deserved to be. Who knows, the USFS might have spared itself all this :argue: .
Based on his being in Group 2 coming in, it apparently wouldn't have mattered. He did skate a great SP as well.
 

Karen-W

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The problem with that is everyone needed to be called more strictly. Ilia didn't get away with as much as the others so his score is probably the closest to accurate.
Yes, but as was pointed out in the pbp thread in real time, by not correctly calling Jason & Vincent's rotations, Ilia actually lost points to both of them. If those guys had their jumps called correctly and the GOE applied correctly, as would happen internationally, Ilia's margin of win over them would have been higher. But, we all knew that jumps for the favorites were being casually reviewed, at best.
 

VGThuy

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I wonder if there's a enough anger about this choice if the USFS, for 2026, won't make their selection criteria stricter and like requiring more to meet Group 1-2 (like requiring a top 3 finish at Nationals and having Group 3 placement requiring consistent top 5 World score or a top 3 one once, and that way Nationals placement can play more of a role in selection. However, moving away from strict selection by making it harder to reach Groups 1-3 will also give the USFS even more discretion to argue their choices if most of the skaters don't qualify for groups 1-3 and thus are all put in the same low priority group for the final whatever slots.
 

kwanfan1818

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It might come as a surprise that US Nationals is considered a prestigious title in itself, or that for some competitors, just qualifying is the highlight of their careers. US Nationals is not simply a qualifying competition or an input into selection criteria.
 

Mayra

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I wonder if winning at the JGPF or having a good showing there would have made any difference for Ilia? Probably not. Ilia clearly used his time off wisely and put in the work with Raf to make improvements to his skating.

Listening to his interviews in the JGP and hearing him talk about working with other coaches to improve his skating, the kid gets it. It helps to be the offspring of skaters, but he seems very self driven and not shy about what his goals are. I'm still bummed for him but I'm very excited for his future.

Sports.Ru has an article up with quotes from Raf and he appears upset about the selection as well.
 

becca

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MI wonder if there's a enough anger about this choice if the USFS, for 2026, won't make their selection criteria stricter and like requiring more to meet Group 1-2 (like requiring a top 3 finish at Nationals and having Group 3 placement requiring consistent top 5 World score or a top 3 one once, and that way Nationals placement can play more of a role in selection. However, moving away from strict selection by making it harder to reach Groups 1-3 will also give the USFS even more discretion to argue their choices if most of the skaters don't qualify for groups 1-3 and thus are all put in the same low priority group for the final whatever slots.


I don’t have a problem with Vincent over Ilia because Vincent is group two Vincent skates well he could win a medal.

I have a problem with saying men who have not demonstrated they are Capable of top three scores heck not even top six scores this season being put on a team over a youngster who just demonstrated technical content that only 3 men in the world can do at the pressure of nationals.

Ilia skates like that at Russian or Canadian nationals there is no body of work debate.
 

On My Own

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It might come as a surprise that US Nationals is considered a prestigious title in itself, or that for some competitors, just qualifying is the highlight of their careers. US Nationals is not simply a qualifying competition or an input into selection criteria.
OK. Hold nationals minus the selected team, let the rest skate without an audience. Simply don't pretend it's part of some olympic selection criteria and that the selected team needs to risk its health when they'd much rather stay safe for the Olympics (a few of whom literally did get infected). And don't lie to people like they still have a chance, as with Malinin, at the cost of any health issues they might develop.

Beyond that, I don't think getting COVID at a superspreader event is worth whatever prestige or career highlight it might fetch, but I probably and happily differ there from most. I don't think I'm asking for much though, regardless of whichever surprising/ridiculous ritual some think needs to march on no matter what.
 
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Karen-W

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I wonder if there's a enough anger about this choice if the USFS, for 2026, won't make their selection criteria stricter and like requiring more to meet Group 1-2 (like requiring a top 3 finish at Nationals and having Group 3 placement requiring consistent top 5 World score or a top 3 one once, and that way Nationals placement can play more of a role in selection. However, moving away from strict selection by making it harder to reach Groups 1-3 will also give the USFS even more discretion to argue their choices if most of the skaters don't qualify for groups 1-3 and thus are all put in the same low priority group for the final whatever slots.
I think, for me, the issue is with that 3rd spot... why should a skater/team that hasn't elevated themselves to at least Group 2 status based on international scores get any sort of priority over someone who beats them at Nationals? Neither 2018 or 2014 in Men or Women are good comparisons, IMO, because even if you applied the current criteria to those selections (and I did do an analysis earlier in the fall of the 2018 Men with the current criteria), you had 2 spots up for grabs, and then 4-5 other guys who were all in Group 3. There is no doubt in my mind, had Green/Parsons beaten Hawayek/Baker at Nats that the USFS would have given them the 3rd spot. Yes, I realize Ilia's scores aren't quite as comparable to Brown as G/P are to H/B, but they both came into Nats in Group 4. And this wasn't even a close margin between Ilia's 2nd place and Jason's 4th place, like we saw in ID. I just don't think the USFS does themselves any favors in overriding Nationals results for that 3rd spot for a skater/team who haven't demonstrated the ability to score Worlds Top 3 or Top 5 even once during the season. What would the collective wisdom here been saying had it been Lindsay blowing Karen out of the water? I doubt there would have been any uproar. People would have said "well, Karen is already an Olympian, so she's fine staying home because she lost to the new girl." She doesn't have nearly as many vocal uber-stans as Jason.
 

VGThuy

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I think, for me, the issue is with that 3rd spot... why should a skater/team that hasn't elevated themselves to at least Group 2 status based on international scores get any sort of priority over someone who beats them at Nationals? Neither 2018 or 2014 in Men or Women are good comparisons, IMO, because even if you applied the current criteria to those selections (and I did do an analysis earlier in the fall of the 2018 Men with the current criteria), you had 2 spots up for grabs, and then 4-5 other guys who were all in Group 3. There is no doubt in my mind, had Green/Parsons beaten Hawayek/Baker at Nats that the USFS would have given them the 3rd spot. Yes, I realize Ilia's scores aren't quite as comparable to Brown as G/P are to H/B, but they both came into Nats in Group 4. And this wasn't even a close margin between Ilia's 2nd place and Jason's 4th place, like we saw in ID. I just don't think the USFS does themselves any favors in overriding Nationals results for that 3rd spot for a skater/team who haven't demonstrated the ability to score Worlds Top 3 or Top 5 even once during the season. What would the collective wisdom here been saying had it been Lindsay blowing Karen out of the water? I doubt there would have been any uproar. People would have said "well, Karen is already an Olympian, so she's fine staying home because she lost to the new girl." She doesn't have nearly as many vocal uber-stans as Jason.
I can see an argument for next time that there should only be two priority groups (with strict criteria or the same critiera as this year) and there being no need for priority groups 3 or 4 and to let Nationals decide who fills however many slots are available after we subtract skaters who were able to make it into groups 1-2 after Nationals results are in.
 

jlai

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I'm not gutted for Ilia, I'm gutted for our sport that suffers from such dismal leadership that they would fail to take advantage of Malinin's extraordinary technical ability to further promote the sport and ensure continued dominance once the current team retires, which is likely the end of this season.

I understand the rules, and think there was room for the committee to pick Malinin. I understand why they didn't, but I don't agree with the decision.
But Ilia is going to worlds, minimum pending. Post Olympic world is general a lower pressure event which isn’t a bad place to debut.

I think if Ilia didn’t get 13th in cup of Austria things might have been different. Zhou didn’t get senior worlds in 17 either when he didn’t get minimum. Too bad Ilia didn’t get to have a full jr season last year but that wasn’t the fed’s doing

Olympic is a every 4 year thing and a lot of luck play into whether you get to go, even when we didn’t have the pandemic messing up event and training schedules.
 

emason

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Re the question of holding Nationals or not holding Nationals this year, aren’t we overlooking the obvious? All the lost revenue that USFS wouldn’t get from NBC if they had no product for broadcast? Or is there insurance protection of some kind covering USFS in this unusual crud situation?
 

screech

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Ilia skates like that at Russian or Canadian nationals there is no body of work debate.
Enter Vanessa James and Eric Radford...

And I disagree a bit regarding the Canadians BOW debate. If, for example, Canadian results had been:
1. Roman Sadovsky
2. Wesley Chiu
3. Keegan Messing

The team would have been Roman and Keegan. Even if Keegan had come 4th, with Joseph Phan or Corey Circelli ahead of him, Keegan was going to the Olympics. If he'd withdrawn due to his skate issues, Keegan was going to the Olympics. His BOW was undeniable compared to all other Canadian men.

However, if it had been:
1. Keegan Messing
2. Wesley Chiu
3. Nam or Roman

That's where things would have been interesting for the BOW debate, and I have no idea what Skate Canada would have done, and that's with both Nam and Roman having lacklustre BOW.
 

Vash01

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Rapid movement isn’t in the criteria, neither is potential. Usfs will get bitching whoever they pick. They went with the rule book, and the selection is fair by the rule book. In this case they can send one of the two in group 3.

It may not be the most strategic decision but I don’t think the committee was wrong by sticking with the rule book.

The national judging is another matter.

The criteria are so much clearer than 2018, and when the criteria were posted I don’t remember any wiz robbing. Until someone is gutted for Ilia. While I am gutted I also don’t think there is a decision where half of the folks aren’t angry
If there is no controversy, it is not figure skating. :)

I believe the USFS made the right decision, based on available Data and facts.

I am not upset about Ilia not going to the Olympics in 2022. He is young enough to go to two Olympics (2026 and 2030). I know that is no consolation to his fans.

It seems he needed to compete at the senior level during the season to prove himself. We had already seen that the USFS does not go strictly by the placements at the nationals. If Ilia wanted to go to the Olympics in 2022, he needed a strategy. His team may have made an error here.
 
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PRlady

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But Ilia is going to worlds, minimum pending. Post Olympic world is general a lower pressure event which isn’t a bad place to debut.

I think if Ilia didn’t get 13th in cup of Austria things might have been different. Zhou didn’t get senior worlds in 17 either when he didn’t get minimum. Too bad Ilia didn’t get to have a full jr season last year but that wasn’t the fed’s doing

Olympic is a every 4 year thing and a lot of luck play into whether you get to go, even when we didn’t have the ********* messing up event and training schedules.
Yep. Tell the Russian juniors who SHOULD have come in 3/4/5 at this year's Russian Nats about timing. All three of them will be "old" in 2026 and some current 11-year-old will outskate them. Who knows what would have happened if Asada could have skated in Turin?

I don't blame Ilia and Raf for being angry, I just hope it motivates Ilia to go to Worlds and blow almost everyone out of the water.
 

kwanfan1818

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I don't blame Ilia and Raf for being angry, I just hope it motivates Ilia to go to Worlds and blow almost everyone out of the water.
Same here. I hope he pulls a Sotnikova at Worlds.

Tell the Russian juniors who SHOULD have come in 3/4/5 at this year's Russian Nats about timing. All three of them will be "old" in 2026 and some current 11-year-old will outskate them.
Not in Men's competition, though: generally, Men go through a growth spurt that derails them until they get through it.
 

Karen-W

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But Ilia is going to worlds, minimum pending. Post Olympic world is general a lower pressure event which isn’t a bad place to debut.

I think if Ilia didn’t get 13th in cup of Austria things might have been different. Zhou didn’t get senior worlds in 17 either when he didn’t get minimum. Too bad Ilia didn’t get to have a full jr season last year but that wasn’t the fed’s doing

Olympic is a every 4 year thing and a lot of luck play into whether you get to go, even when we didn’t have the ********* messing up event and training schedules.
He got 13th in the SP at Cup of Austria. He pulled up in the FS for bronze.
I can see an argument for next time that there should only be two priority groups (with strict criteria or the same critiera as this year) and there being no need for priority groups 3 or 4 and to let Nationals decide who fills however many slots are available after we subtract skaters who were able to make it into groups 1-2 after Nationals results are in.
Yeah, I think that the problem was in having too MANY priority groups and in not having Group 2 also require a Top 3 Nats finish. And, I would remove the "score at least once equal to Worlds Top 3" as a way to get into Group 2 because we saw, as the season progressed, that Liu's Lombardia Trophy score didn't hold up and she was maybe scoring closer to Worlds Top 10 than Top 5. I have no issue with K/F, Zhou, C/B or H/D being in Group 2 because they showed consistent scoring at that level, but we all knew that the USFS had boxed themselves in with the Women by allowing that "at least once Worlds Top 3" option. It should be harder to get into Group 2 than it was. And it shouldn't be so reliant upon international scores to get a spot if you aren't consistently showing you can place in the Top 5 or contend for a medal.
 

PRlady

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Same here. I hope he pulls a Sotnikova at Worlds.


Not in Men's competition, though: generally, Men go through a growth spurt that derails them until they get through it.
And has Ilia gone through that growth spurt? He looks small but past puberty to me. Gogolev, Nam Nguyen and examples of kids who didn't get past it. Russia is littered with bodies of their prodigies who didn't make it -- some, like Gachinski, forced to skate injured to get there. If Ilia still has his growth spurt ahead of him, even more reason not to give him an Olys spot; Polina did nothing for American womens' skating.
 

Karen-W

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And has Ilia gone through that growth spurt? He looks small but past puberty to me. Gogolev, Nam Nguyen and examples of kids who didn't get past it. Russia is littered with bodies of their prodigies who didn't make it -- some, like Gachinski, forced to skate injured to get there. If Ilia still has his growth spurt ahead of him, even more reason not to give him an Olys spot; Polina did nothing for American womens' skating.
Based on how small he was in 2019-20 when he made his JGP debut compared to now (he was such a baby!), I think he is done or close to being done growing. He will probably fill out a but more, similar to Nathan and Vincent, but he looks to be post-pubescent.
 

VGThuy

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And has Ilia gone through that growth spurt? He looks small but past puberty to me. Gogolev, Nam Nguyen and examples of kids who didn't get past it. Russia is littered with bodies of their prodigies who didn't make it -- some, like Gachinski, forced to skate injured to get there. If Ilia still has his growth spurt ahead of him, even more reason not to give him an Olys spot; Polina did nothing for American womens' skating.
To be fair to Polina, she actually did decently for her Olympics debut in her Senior debut season. She was no Lipnitskaya or Zagitova or the Valieva, but who is? She did have a 12th place finish at the Worlds SP but she placed 5th in the Worlds LP that same season, which is pretty great. At 2014-15 she was going through some growing pains but did win Four Continents over the likes of future World medalist a month later Miyahara, Gracie Gold, and future world medalist Gabrielle Daleman. At Worlds that year, she placed higher than Ashley and Gracie in the SP, but both of them came back and managed to place three-four spots higher than Polina.

Polina then dealt with injury and that was that, but I'd say she had a respectable career when she had it and came away with a ISU championship (and was the last American woman to win one). Compare that to Mirai, who she replaced on the 2014 World team, and whom I love and will always give props to for her performance in the team event, but it wasn't like Polina was an embarrassing choice looking at all the results.
 

becca

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But Ilia is going to worlds, minimum pending. Post Olympic world is general a lower pressure event which isn’t a bad place to debut.

I think if Ilia didn’t get 13th in cup of Austria things might have been different. Zhou didn’t get senior worlds in 17 either when he didn’t get minimum. Too bad Ilia didn’t get to have a full jr season last year but that wasn’t the fed’s doing

Olympic is a every 4 year thing and a lot of luck play into whether you get to go, even when we didn’t have the ********* messing up event and training schedules.
And has Ilia gone through that growth spurt? He looks small but past puberty to me. Gogolev, Nam Nguyen and examples of kids who didn't get past it. Russia is littered with bodies of their prodigies who didn't make it -- some, like Gachinski, forced to skate injured to get there. If Ilia still has his growth spurt ahead of him, even more reason not to give him an Olys spot; Polina did nothing for American womens' skating.
I think it is very unfair to say the Polina decision would only pay if if she became a world or Olympic medalist.

It is not like Mirai shows them they were wrong by beating Polina next season. Polina for her brief stay as a senior more than demonstrated she was the USFSA third best.

She needs to be compared to the skater she replaced. Mirai never made the GPF, won and individual world or Olympic medal either.

Both girls got to compete at the Olympics. That was fair
 

yeslek

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On their Insta show, Mirai Nagasu is saying she agrees with Brown for the Olympic Team. Polina is saying Malinin should have been selected. Their intensity and strong opinions matches much of what we're expressing here. :lol:
I think it speaks volumes that Mirai agrees since she was one of the ones passed over. Polina on the other hand probably identifies with ilia and was selected so hers seemed a little more biased.
 

SorrySkater

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For the record, I agree with the selection of Jason for the Olympics. He met all criteria as outlined. He qualified for the GP Final; it’s not like every skate was a splatfest. People are ranting like he can’t stay on his feet while skating.

Now, with that being said … is it possible that Vincent’s meltdown in the long program actually helped Jason? Remember Jason beat Vincent in the long, and Vincent squeaked out the bronze based on his massive lead over Jason after the short program. I wonder if the selection would’ve gone differently if Vincent’s long program was as good as his short. If it had been, the gap between Jason and the top 3 would’ve been far greater. That would’ve made it far more difficult to justify passing over Ilia IMO.
 

gkelly

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Can someone tell me what the actual point of US Nationals was?

Off the top of my head, not in any particular order after the first:

To determine national champions in each discipline, at senior and junior levels

To be the most significant (but not only) data point in the selection of Olympic, Four Continents, and Worlds teams

To be a significant data point in the selection of this year's Junior World team, for selection to funding envelopes and the International Selection Pool, and for actually selecting skaters for other international competitions for the rest of 2022

To fulfill contractual obligations for network broadcasts that fund much of the organization's activities (how much money would be lost by canceling on short notice?)

To fulfill contractual obligations to ticket holders (or be forced to refund that income)

To gather many (in some disciplines most or all) of this year's top competitors at junior and senior level in one competition in the same time and place for a meaningful head-to-head comparison among those who compete -- which in some disciplines does not happen at any other time of year

To allow skaters who qualified to Nationals (perhaps for the first/only time) the opportunity to actually compete at the big show.

To gather past stars together in one location and otherwise to celebrate the federation's current and past successes

To provide opportunities for current national officials to get meaningful officiating opportunities, and for not-yet-national officials to train toward national appointments

To gather officials and top competitors from the qualifying season at lower levels in one location for the national high-performance development camp, along with an opportunity for the potential stars of the future to watch the current stars

Why hold a superspreader event if it didn't even matter?

It matters for all of the above reasons, even if it didn't matter as much as some might prefer in terms of one of those purposes (choosing the Olympic team).

Some of those purposes could be given up if necessary due to health and safety concerns. For example, no spectators last year. But not holding the event at all would be a big loss to many stakeholders, including fans but more important including dozens of skaters.
 

kwanfan1818

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Now, with that being said … is it possible that Vincent’s meltdown in the long program actually helped Jason? Remember Jason beat Vincent in the long, and Vincent squeaked out the bronze based on his massive lead over Jason after the short program. I wonder if the selection would’ve gone differently if Vincent’s long program was as good as his short. If it had been, the gap between Jason and the top 3 would’ve been far greater. That would’ve made it far more difficult to justify passing over Ilia IMO.
I think it did. Zhou planned and performed five quads, two 3A's (one in combo), and maxxed out his levels. His total tech score, without counting the fall deduction, was slightly less than total base value. Brown, with a fall on a quad, had a base value of nearly 14 points less, but had a total tech score of a little over 4 points more than Zhou, and that's with a 2-level loss on the final spin. Brown lost bronze by less than half a point. For better or worse, he was comparable to Zhou in this competition.
 

Plusdinfo

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Throwing all specific skaters and past results aside and solely speaking in general terms, how many of you feel like point differential at Nationals should make some difference in the selection process? For example, would someone scoring way in front of another boost his/her case for selection versus only scoring a bit in front? Do you have thoughts about what kind of point differential would be the minimum to finish the job and definitively make you put the higher-ranked skater on the team?

*Another note: I have often seen the comment in these Olympic years that one's showing at Nationals is often the final result before the Olympics and therefore potentially more significant as a barometer of the skaters' condition/frame of mind/performances than competitions earlier in the season. Or the previous season. Normally coupled with that thought is the thinking that if only Nationals dictates Olympic or World teams or it weighs very heavily, proving yourself under that pressure means you may be more likely to survive the pressure of the Olympics/Worlds. I can't say I really dispute those viewpoints.

There's so much speculation, impassioned typing/tweeting/etc., and drama for many of these selections, especially for U.S. teams in Olympic years since 2014, and I actually think it's a shame that such madness takes place. I wish things were clearer for all involved!
 

Karen-W

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In case anyone still thinks that NBC is going to drive whatever decision the USFS makes regarding which discipline to split...

They're replaying the FD next Sunday, prior to the Gala broadcast. I realize the Women were live in primetime on Friday night on NBC and NBC made a point of carrying both portions of the Men's comp on the flagship, but I'd say that choosing to show the FD (even tape-delayed) next week would indicate they do recognize the strength of the US dance program.
 

shuilee

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Terry Gannon said at the end of NBC broadcast that Jason Brown may be chosen on the Olympic Team because of the Team Event (whereas Johnny/Tara both said Ilia should be on the team). Someone from USFS must have tipped off Terry that Jason has a good shot of competing the TE.

Question is whether Nathan is skipping the TE entirely, or perhaps both Nathan and Vincent expressed an interest to skip the TE and concentrate on individual medal. What if Jason has to do both. Ha!
 

becca

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Terry Gannon said at the end of NBC broadcast that Jason Brown may be chosen on the Olympic Team because of the Team Event (whereas Johnny/Tara both said Ilia should be on the team). Someone from USFS must have tipped off Terry that Jason has a good shot of competing the TE.

Question is whether Nathan is skipping the TE entirely, or perhaps both Nathan and Vincent expressed an interest to skip the TE and concentrate on individual medal. What if Jason has to do both. Ha!
Say goodbye to gold
 

Karen-W

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Say goodbye to gold
Nah. We have to operate under the assumption that Nathan & Raf haven't made a firm decision on the TE and won't make one until they're in Beijing.
 

Marco

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It's hard to believe Nathan might consider skipping TE. It's an easy and relatively assured Olympic medal. All he had to do was to skate a short program. He is supposed to be at the peak of his conditioning and form anyways so skating a short program a few days before the actual individual event shouldn't be an issue? Doesn't he have to practice and do full run-throughs anyways? He can probably dial down one of the quads to a 4toe and still get the job done.
 

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