olympic
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Make no mistake. If Ilia earns it then he should go but since the USFSA uses BOW to determine the teams now, it may all be moot because Ilia has not quite built the rep the aforementioned three
U.S. Men 2021-22 season news & updates
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Karen-W
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Please go read the US Olympic selection criteria. BOW has nothing to do with it. It is all about total score and consistency. Ilia absolutely factors into this conversation. And, furthermore, his BOW is likely to be comparable to Jason, when you look at his two JGP golds and qualifying for the JGPF.
There is still plenty of season to go, and Lord knows, Ilia's managed to injure himself in December each of the last two seasons and miss out on Nationals as a result, so I'm holding my breath on that front, but if he continues to skate as well as he has and is able to consistently deliver 4-quad FS in his next 3 events (Cup of Austria, JGPF, Nationals) as well as 2 quads in his SP at his senior events, he will find himself in Group 3 like Jason and then, all bets are off as to which of the two make the Olympic team.
wickedwitch
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If Ilia places top 3 and beats Jason then both will be in group 3. In that case, I bet the USFSA sends Ilia.
I want Jason to get the spot and think that it's still in his control. If he goes clean other than the quad, I think he gets the spot. That said, if Ilia beats him, the idea that Ilia should be "saved" is absurd and stupid and anti-competitive. Furthermore, what if Ilia gets injured between then and 2026? He would have been "saved" for no reason.
Karen-W
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Yes, and the USFS doesn't usually refrain from saving a young, up-and-coming skater from being named to the Olympic team if they place in the top 3 at Nationals.
One other thing about Ilia being back on the JGP this season rather than skating senior internationally is that last season was a complete bust internationally so he didn't have the same opportunity for growth and junior results that Jason and Vincent did in 2012-13 and 2016-17 respectively. If there had been a junior season or even just Junior Worlds, it is possible that Ilia would have won some hardware and risen enough in the World Standings to justify moving up to the GP this season. But that didn't happen because of the crud and so he went back out on the junior circuit and has been slaying it there. It was a good choice for his team and the USFS.
Impromptu
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Do the results of the Junior World Championships still determine the number of JGP spots for the following season? There's only 2 weeks between the Olympics and Junior Worlds. Would the USFSA be able to field a competitive Junior World team without Malinin?
Karen-W
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Yes they do and since the Men compete 1st at the Olympics this season, Ilia will have a good 4 weeks between an hypothetical Olympic appearance and Jr Worlds.
missing
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The USFS has a long history of putting a promising young man on its Olympic team with a likely payoff at the next Olympics.
From 1968-1992, John Misha Petkevich, David Santee, Scott Hamilton, Brian Boitano, Christopher Bowman, Paul Wylie and Todd Eldridge all had 2 Olympic appearances, 3 of them medaling at their second one. Johnny Weir and Evan Lysacek also had 2 Olympics, and it wasn't an unreasonable assumption after Jason Brown was named to the 2014 team that he would make the 2018 team. In 2018, the US sent 2 promising young male skaters, Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou, both of whom have an excellent shot at making the 2022 team.
Now, of course, there are all these rules and regs going into team selection, but my guess is if Malinin has a strong fall season and Brown can't land a quad to anyone's satisfaction, the tradition of sending a future Olympian to a get his feet wet first one will hold.
From 1968-1992, John Misha Petkevich, David Santee, Scott Hamilton, Brian Boitano, Christopher Bowman, Paul Wylie and Todd Eldridge all had 2 Olympic appearances, 3 of them medaling at their second one. Johnny Weir and Evan Lysacek also had 2 Olympics, and it wasn't an unreasonable assumption after Jason Brown was named to the 2014 team that he would make the 2018 team. In 2018, the US sent 2 promising young male skaters, Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou, both of whom have an excellent shot at making the 2022 team.
Now, of course, there are all these rules and regs going into team selection, but my guess is if Malinin has a strong fall season and Brown can't land a quad to anyone's satisfaction, the tradition of sending a future Olympian to a get his feet wet first one will hold.
SkateFanBerlin
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Hmm. Will careers become shorter with a trend towards participating in 1 Oly? Hanyu has been winning with mostly 4T/4Ss. There are still many doing well with that (on a good day.) But the new stars have 4 types of quads and mostly quad jumping passes. In general I think we're seeing more injury and peparing these quad packed programs must be very hard on the body.
Impatience of youth not withstanding I say hold Ilia back as a healthy star of the next generation.
Impatience of youth not withstanding I say hold Ilia back as a healthy star of the next generation.
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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Is that really a thing? I can't say that I've seen a trend toward men being a 1 Olympic cycle and done, either domestically or internationally in the last decade. The top 2 Russian men this season (arguably Kolyada & Aliev) were on the Olympic team in 2018; Yuzu is aiming for his 3rd while Uno is a pretty solid bet for a 2nd Olympics and I can't imagine Kagiyama won't be around in 2026; Messing is looking toward his 2nd Olympics; same with Rizzo, Cha, Jin, Brezina, Kerry, Kvitelashvili, etc. Probably half the 2018 Olympic Men's field will be in Beijing. 11 of the 30 from 2014 made it to Pyeongchang, 12 of the 30 from Vancouver made it to Sochi.
I’m surprised you think he could be a top medal contender at the senior championship level right now. I guess we’ll know better when see how he’s marked at his senior B (can’t recall if it’s a challenger or not), but right now I just don’t see him beating any of Nathan, Yuzuru, Yuma, Shoma, or Vincent, at minimum - and there are quite a few guys in the mix for placing 6-10. As strong as his jumping and competitive abilities are (and they’re quite strong), his presentation is still relatively junior-ish, and since jumping multiple quads isn’t the novelty it was 4-5 years ago, I don’t see his PCS rising quickly just because of that.
None of that means he can’t beat Jason out for a spot on the US Olympic team; I just don’t think he’ll be contending for a medal if he does.
Karen-W
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Yes, Cup of Austria is a Challenger. The USFS hasn't sent any of our skaters abroad for international events that aren't GPs, Challengers or JGPs.
I don't think anyone thinks Ilia can beat Nathan, Yuzu, Yuma, Shoma or Vincent at this time. What I personally think is that he has the ability to score in the 6-10 range with consistent quads (and they are getting more consistent with each competition) which is the same range as Jason is likely to finish at any given event - I don't see Jason beating anyone in the top 5 unless he gets a consistent quad. So, pretty much, internationally, I think Ilia and Jason are going to finish in the same range and there's no reason to send Jason to the Olympics over Ilia if Ilia beats him at Nationals.
Read it again. I said Ilia could be a top medal contender heading into the 2026 games.
kwanfan1818
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They had to: a skater needed to be seen, especially in the school figures era, to set up for the next cycle. Maybe another junior would make a technical leap and break the hierarchy -- in 12 years, OGM went from 2A maxxing out at 3Lo in 1976/1980 to Boitano, Orser, and early Browning content in 1988 -- but post 1994, there was a spike in the number of professional opportunities for Western skaters, and post Olympic Worlds were critical as more podium finishers didn't go to them.
beckab81
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If Ilia beats Jason at Nationals, then he's probably going, I'm not arguing that. That being said, I'd much prefer to see Jason's programs at the Olympics - Ilia is still extremely junior to me, and Jason's programs are gorgeous.
canbelto
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I really hope NBC's "five athlete" model won't end up overwhelming Nathan and it's not a Simone Biles redux where the top, hyped athlete of the game experiences burnout in real time during the Olympics.
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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Yeah, I really wish the USOPC would tell NBC to stop that. I don't think it does any of the featured athletes in any sports any good by the time the actual Olympics roll around.
@sheetz: sorry, I misread what you wrote. But considering that Yuzu (2014) Sotnikova (2014) and Zagitova (2018) all won gold first time out, I guess I’m not sure that having prior Olympic experience necessarily matters.
@Karen-W: I guess for me it would depend in part on how big the point / placement difference was. I don’t think the US gets any brownie points for skaters who place 6-10, so I’m not sure that would be definitive for me; I think I’d also consider the fact that Jason is unique in what he brings to the sport. Of course if there’s a repeat of 2018, that wouldn’t really matter.
@missing, I could be wrong, but I always thought the choice in 2018 was between Ross (who placed second but had a lackluster season) and Adam (who placed fourth and had the best BOW of all the men not named Nathan). Regarding Jason in 2018, and remembering that USFS had said quads would be required to make the team, I always thought he was sent over Max because he actually brought down the house at Nats, more than because of his future potential.
@Karen-W: I guess for me it would depend in part on how big the point / placement difference was. I don’t think the US gets any brownie points for skaters who place 6-10, so I’m not sure that would be definitive for me; I think I’d also consider the fact that Jason is unique in what he brings to the sport. Of course if there’s a repeat of 2018, that wouldn’t really matter.
@missing, I could be wrong, but I always thought the choice in 2018 was between Ross (who placed second but had a lackluster season) and Adam (who placed fourth and had the best BOW of all the men not named Nathan). Regarding Jason in 2018, and remembering that USFS had said quads would be required to make the team, I always thought he was sent over Max because he actually brought down the house at Nats, more than because of his future potential.
olympic
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In re Phil Hersh’s article, is there an issue with Nathan’s hip? Nathan offhandedly made a comment about a ‘hip thing’. Will I be a nervous wreck until February??
He did mention it, but I don’t think more is known. Skaters often deal with injury, so hopefully it’s nothing serious and he’ll be fine.
Nathan did say he hoped to get healed up when he returned home so it doesn't sound like he thinks it's too serious.
VGThuy
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It's not just the quad now, but Jason can't seem to do triples cleanly. He always has issues producing totally clean programs and he doesn't have multiple quads as an excuse. He's still in the convo because he consistently hits his SPs and has like 15-25 points that he earns from PCS/GOE over other men who have equal BVs (usually because they pop or mess up more ambitious material) for just being that sort of quality skater. He's probably the most beautiful skater competing at the moment and that does mean something because otherwise a skater with his TES ceiling would not usually be in the conversation.
That said, if Ilia Malinin is hitting his TES more and more and truly is capable of a TES of 110, then even with a 70 PCS (a PCS 23rd at 2021 Worlds LP Nikolaj Majoraj achieved), his LP score would be higher than any LP score Brown has ever achieved internationally outside of 2020 Grand Prix Final.
That said, if Ilia Malinin is hitting his TES more and more and truly is capable of a TES of 110, then even with a 70 PCS (a PCS 23rd at 2021 Worlds LP Nikolaj Majoraj achieved), his LP score would be higher than any LP score Brown has ever achieved internationally outside of 2020 Grand Prix Final.
Jason is in the conversation because he got the job done at Worlds last year.
And because he got the job done at Nationals last year.
And because the current scoring system has kept him (and Kolyada and Brezina, etc.) competitive.
And because he has defeated a whole bunch of guys with a quad or two or three and lackluster presentation. (Ignatov & Semenenko both landed 4 at SC).
And because Jason has the experience it takes to be relied upon in a major international event when someone else pulls out injured or pops everything in the SP.
And because he got the job done at Nationals last year.
And because the current scoring system has kept him (and Kolyada and Brezina, etc.) competitive.
And because he has defeated a whole bunch of guys with a quad or two or three and lackluster presentation. (Ignatov & Semenenko both landed 4 at SC).
And because Jason has the experience it takes to be relied upon in a major international event when someone else pulls out injured or pops everything in the SP.
VGThuy
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I didn't say anything differently. But if we're going to argue another skater should be deprived of a spot for reasons that also apply to Jason or for reasons that were beyond that younger skater's control, then it doesn't seem fair or sportsman-like.
Send them both to Golden Spin & see what they can do.
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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Ilia will be at the JGPF and, hopefully, Jason will be at the GPF the weekend of Golden Spin, otherwise - excellent idea! We'll just have to wait until Nationals to see them compete against each other.
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DreamSkates
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What is his age? If he is younger say under 18, with Chen, Zhou, and a couple of other top-point-getting-skaters going to the Olys, maybe it is better that he gain more experience in juniors, and next year when Zhou, maybe Chen have moved on, he's the up and coming star with an eye on the next Olympics.
Karen-W
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He's 16. Vincent was 17 in Pyeongchang. He was on the JGP two years ago and, I suspect, probably would have moved up to seniors this season had the JGP and Jr Worlds not been cancelled last year. He was supposed to compete seniors at Nats last year but injured himself in December, so he's making his senior debut, both nationally and internationally this season.
I'll be frank, I'd rather he go to the Olympics this year (if he beats Jason at Nats) and get the experience so that he has it to draw upon when Chen, and maybe Zhou, have moved on next season and, hopefully, in Milan.
I think Jason is still behind where he should be technically because he was injured this summer and that his 3A is still a work in progress. Hopefully by Nats he’ll be back to normal. It’s a shame about the 4S because he did seem to be making progress with it before the injury. It’s not my call, but at this point I’m wondering if he should just let it go and focus on skating the cleanest most beautiful +5 GOE programs he can.
