U.S. Men 2021-22 season news & updates

[VGThuy]

I think Jason is still behind where he should be technically because he was injured this summer and that his 3A is still a work in progress. Hopefully by Nats he’ll be back to normal. It’s a shame about the 4S because he did seem to be making progress with it before the injury. It’s not my call, but at this point I’m wondering if he should just let it go and focus on skating the cleanest most beautiful +5 GOE programs he can.

I honestly have no idea what’s the “right” strategy because if he focuses on what he can do sans quad, he may not be taken “as seriously” but then maybe the quad is distracting him too much and not allowing him to skate his best in the long program. All I know is that he’s such a gorgeous skater and I just want him to skate well so he can have a real fighting chance against those who are capable of overtaking his TES base value in a way that his GOE and PCS can’t make up for. I just don’t know if focusing on being clean with all triples (and cleaning his 3A up) or keep trying for the quad no matter if it messes with the other jumps in the LP because he may have it in time for Beijing will give him have the best fighting chance.

 

[canbelto]

Jason's problem is that his 3A is not a strong jump for him. So if he takes out the quad, it's not a sure thing at all that his 3A will be clean.

 

[Karen-W]

I honestly have no idea what’s the “right” strategy because if he focuses on what he can do sans quad, he may not be taken “as seriously” but then maybe the quad is distracting him too much and not allowing him to skate his best in the long program. All I know is that he’s such a gorgeous skater and I just want him to skate well so he can have a real fighting chance against those who are capable of overtaking his TES base value in a way that his GOE and PCS can’t make up for. I just don’t know if focusing on being clean with all triples (and cleaning his 3A up) or keep trying for the quad no matter if it messes with the other jumps in the LP because he may have it in time for Beijing will give him have the best fighting chance.

Keep going for the quad, IMO. There's a ceiling to what he can score with a quadless program, even if he does max out his GOE and PCS and, as you pointed out earlier today, it's beatable by a junior level skater with 4 quads in the FS and 2 in the SP.

 

[VGThuy]

Keep going for the quad, IMO. There's a ceiling to what he can score with a quadless program, even if he does max out his GOE and PCS and, as you pointed out earlier today, it's beatable by a junior level skater with 4 quads in the FS and 2 in the SP.

Yeah but that’s just in the LP. Jason has been capable of matching two quads from “lower quality” skaters in the SP where jumping passes are limited. I think he can hit 180 with a totally clean program which is floor but not the ceiling I will put a junior man who can hit around 110 in TES. However, we don’t know if Malinin can hit 110 internationally. That said, we don’t know if the judges will score his PCS higher than 70 as well. It’s all a gamble. It would have been easier if Malinin competed in the senior Grand Prix haha. Speaking of men with quads, I know Paniot withdrew from Skate America but any word on his citizenship. He did an interview last year indicating he already was on his way to getting it even though most of us didn’t even know he had his green card yet or that he had already met the residency requirements.

ETA: All I know is Malinin’s France JGP scores are not going to result in him overtaking Jason. The junior men in the LP have the same amount of jumping passes as the Senior men and the only thing missing is the choreo sequence where Jason scored 5.5 points on skate Canada. Even giving Malinin an extra 16 points to his JGP France total would put him about thirty points below Jason’s Skate Canada total and that LP was not indicative of Jason’s best. His JGP Austria was better but let’s give him an extra 6 points in the LP for the choreo sequence (even though I don’t think he’d score that high) and then an extra 9 points to make him match Nathan Chen’s BV in the SP (not sure if he’d do that). An extra fifteen points would give him 260, which isn’t bad but Jason scored 259.50 with a great SP and a bad LP.

 

[olympic]

Please go read the US Olympic selection criteria. BOW has nothing to do with it. It is all about total score and consistency. Ilia absolutely factors into this conversation. And, furthermore, his BOW is likely to be comparable to Jason, when you look at his two JGP golds and qualifying for the JGPF.

There is still plenty of season to go, and Lord knows, Ilia's managed to injure himself in December each of the last two seasons and miss out on Nationals as a result, so I'm holding my breath on that front, but if he continues to skate as well as he has and is able to consistently deliver 4-quad FS in his next 3 events (Cup of Austria, JGPF, Nationals) as well as 2 quads in his SP at his senior events, he will find himself in Group 3 like Jason and then, all bets are off as to which of the two make the Olympic team.

OK. I didn't know that. I thought it was BOW, but you are saying total score for the season?

 

[Flowerz]

Keep going for the quad, IMO. There's a ceiling to what he can score with a quadless program, even if he does max out his GOE and PCS and, as you pointed out earlier today, it's beatable by a junior level skater with 4 quads in the FS and 2 in the SP.

Jason can score 97 in the SP and around 183 in the FS with only triples. That would be 280 points (internationally). Domestically he can reach around 295 with the same content. Can a junior level skater score that with 6 quads? I'm not sure. Again, his PBs are 274 international and 292 domestic, but with a double for the first one and a >> quad for the second. I doubt a junior level skater would beat 280/295. Maybe someone like Kagiyama, but he has very good PCS for a young skater if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Dobre]

He was on the JGP two years ago and, I suspect, probably would have moved up to seniors this season had the JGP and Jr Worlds not been cancelled last year.

He might have moved up this year because of the Olympics; but I doubt it. Nathan & Vincent both did at least a couple seasons on the JGP in which they were competitive for medals & the JGPF. As did Kraznozhon, Hiwatashi, & Pulkinen. Malinin wasn't at that level two years ago. He could have used the two seasons, though I do think he would have competed at senior Nationals as that would have matched the pattern for the U.S. guys on the junior scene.

 

[Karen-W]

ETA: All I know is Malinin’s France JGP scores are not going to result in him overtaking Jason. The junior men in the LP have the same amount of jumping passes as the Senior men and the only thing missing is the choreo sequence where Jason scored 5.5 points on skate Canada. Even giving Malinin an extra 16 points to his JGP France total would put him about thirty points below Jason’s Skate Canada total and that LP was not indicative of Jason’s best.

Check out his JGP Austria scores though - 245+ without quads in the SP and one less jumping pass/no choreo sequence in the FS. We'll see how he does in a couple weeks at the Cup of Austria Challenger but I'm pretty sure he's more than capable of besting Jason's SCI and Finlandia scores this season.

 

[VGThuy]

OK. I didn't know that. I thought it was BOW, but you are saying total score for the season?

There are more details here:

USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for 2022 Olympics

U.S. FIGURE SKATING ATHLETE SELECTION PROCEDURES 2022 OLYMPIC WINTER GAMES (amended July 20, 2021) - 35 page document: https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2022%20Winter%20Olympic%20Games%20Selection%20Procedures%20FINAL.pdf

www.fsuniverse.net

From Worlds 2021 - on, all international scores are considered and the key is matching or surpassing the top five or top 3 scores from 2021 Worlds. Then top 3 or top 5 ranking at Nationals will come into play. For “consistently”, they will take all scores and find the median to see if the skater meets the “consistently” standard. The median, not the mean/average.

 

[VGThuy]

Check out his JGP Austria scores though - 245+ without quads in the SP and one less jumping pass/no choreo sequence in the FS. We'll see how he does in a couple weeks at the Cup of Austria Challenger but I'm pretty sure he's more than capable of besting Jason's SCI and Finlandia scores this season.

I edited my post to include Austria. The junior men and senior men have the same amount of jumping passes in the LP. The difference is the senior men have a choreo sequence. I put that into account in comparing Brown’s scores with Malinin’s.

 

[Flowerz]

Check out his JGP Austria scores though - 245+ without quads in the SP and one less jumping pass/no choreo sequence in the FS. We'll see how he does in a couple weeks at the Cup of Austria Challenger but I'm pretty sure he's more than capable of besting Jason's SCI and Finlandia scores this season.

Jason is also capable of besting his own scores this season, and Malinin's, at IDF and the competiton after that. I just don't see Mallinin reaching around 270 or more internationally, but I could be wrong.

 

[Karen-W]

I edited my post to include Austria. The junior men and senior men have the same amount of jumping passes in the LP. The difference is the senior men have a choreo sequence. I put that into account in comparing Brown’s scores with Malinin’s.

Fair enough. I appreciate the edit.

The big concern, for Jason, I think, has to be that USFS is going to take the median number and they're also going to be looking at scoring trends. So far, he's gone down from Finlandia, plus he seems stuck in the same range that earned him 7th at Worlds. I do think he is better off going for the quad every FS though - he earned 3 points less yesterday attempting the quad than he did at Finlandia where he didn't try it. Either way, he IS showing consistency and, assuredly, is most likely going to finish in the 6-10 range if he does get the 3rd spot for Beijing.

 

[VGThuy]

Jason is also capable of besting his own scores this season, and Malinin's, at IDF and the competiton after that. I just don't see Mallinin reaching around 270 or more internationally, but I could be wrong.

If he can, he needs to show he can score around 255 or higher even without the quads in the SP and the choreo sequence at the JGPF. Imo, to overtake someone with Jason’s resume, he should show he can score 260+ at the JGPF to make a real argument.

 

[Flowerz]

If he can, he needs to show he can score around 255 or higher even without the quads in the SP and the choreo sequence at the JGPF. Imo, to overtake someone with Jason’s resume, he should show he can score 260+ at the JGPF to make a real argument.

Oh, I see. Thanks for the explanation!

 

[VGThuy]

Oh, I see. Thanks for the explanation!

I just came up with that number thinking Jason can potentially score in the mid 270s or a bit higher at his best without a quad, so it’d be in Ilia’s best interest to show he can at least match that. Better if he can beat Jason at nationals and if Jason continues to skate like he did at Skate Canada. I’m not saying I want that, not at all, but I’m thinking about what Ilia will probably need to happen to have the strongest argument to be placed on the team over someone like Jason.

 

[Dobre]

Setting aside the whole Olympic team discussion, Ilia is off to Austria in essentially two weeks for his CS. Current top guys on the entry list at the event include Semenenko, Kolyada, & Aymoz. I would like to see Ilia go up against Semenenko because I think they have some of the same strengths and weaknesses; however, it sounds like Semenenko came back from SC with an injury issue so he might not stay on the list for Austria.

 

[Karen-W]

If he can, he needs to show he can score around 255 or higher even without the quads in the SP and the choreo sequence at the JGPF. Imo, to overtake someone with Jason’s resume, he should show he can score 260+ at the JGPF to make a real argument.

Is 260 even possible for the JGPF men? I get that, theoretically, it's possible if he did 5 quads but even top senior skaters are pushing it with 5 quads in the FS. Heck, Nathan's only managed 4 in his last two outings. Ilia did have one error on a jumping pass in his JGP Austria event so he can probably score at least a little higher (maybe 250?).

I suppose the other, unknown, factor is skate order. Is the USFS still using a random draw for Nationals? I know they are for the qualifying series comps but I'm not sure if that's the case with Nats. If Ilia draws last and the crowd is feeling a bit let down with whomever skates 5th, a program where he hits everything could raise his scores enough to pull off an upset.

 

[canbelto]

I respect Jason Brown for continuing to jump the quad, even though it's very inconsistent and often just not there. Many older skaters become averse to taking risks and jumping jumps that are not that consistent. I think Jason realized a long time ago that he never was going to be that skater whose jumps came effortlessly, but he continues to add more difficulty to his programs.

 

[VGThuy]

Is 260 even possible for the JGPF men? I get that, theoretically, it's possible if he did 5 quads but even top senior skaters are pushing it with 5 quads in the FS. Heck, Nathan's only managed 4 in his last two outings. Ilia did have one error on a jumping pass in his JGP Austria event so he can probably score at least a little higher (maybe 250?).

I suppose the other, unknown, factor is skate order. Is the USFS still using a random draw for Nationals? I know they are for the qualifying series comps but I'm not sure if that's the case with Nats. If Ilia draws last and the crowd is feeling a bit let down with whomever skates 5th, a program where he hits everything could raise his scores enough to pull off an upset.

It is possible if he has a 110 TES domestically in the LP. Vincent Zhou scored around that when he won junior worlds in 2017. He may have had an extra jumping pass but his GOEs were capped off at 3 instead of 5. A score around that is needed to beat someone like Jason with his PCS and GOE and his resume, that got stronger thanks to 2021 Worlds. Of course, if Jason continues to implode….

 

[tony]

All of these hypotheticals require both Malinin and Brown to skate near or absolutely perfect, more or less. Is that likely to happen? Well, we can all wish. If Brown goes for the 4S and/or more difficult content and happens to fall twice in the free skate, his PCS has a maximum of something like 91.50 points or right around that, which is probably a small dent into what USFS judges would want to give him. If he skates 'clean' without quad attempts, he still risks 3A troubles and/or doubling jumps later in the program that will eat into his TES but not necessarily limit the PCS.

I'm not ever in the boat of 'let them wait their turn, let them wait until they are ready'. We see how the skating goes. Malinin is still young and who knows where his motivation will be in four years or if he will get through everything injury-free in the coming years, seeing how that's already been a problem.

I think Brown has one of the best short programs I've ever seen, but I think the US has a clear top 2 and the third spot really should go to the most deserving in that moment, plain and simple. Call me old school for that one. The USFS has criteria this time around that is really clear, but the third entry 99% isn't needed for team event talks nor are they really in the medal picture anyways. Give it to who earns it in that pressure situation.

Remember when Paniot was the potential anointed one following Nationals?

 

[Karen-W]

I'm not ever in the boat of 'let them wait their turn, let them wait until they are ready'. We see how the skating goes. Malinin is still young and who knows where his motivation will be in four years or if he will get through everything injury-free in the coming years, seeing how that's already been a problem.

Yeah, well people said that about Nathan after he had that hip injury while in juniors but he's managed to stay, relatively, injury-free for the majority of his senior career.

I think Brown has one of the best short programs I've ever seen, but I think the US has a clear top 2 and the third spot really should go to the most deserving in that moment, plain and simple. Call me old school for that one. The USFS has criteria this time around that is really clear, but the third entry 99% isn't needed for team event talks nor are they really in the medal picture anyways. Give it to who earns it in that pressure situation.

I love Brown's SP. Probably my fave this season of all the contenders (well, some have yet to debut, but yeah ...) And, I'm with you on the 3rd spot going to the most deserving/best placement in that moment at Nats. 2022 isn't like either 2014 or 2018 when we have two very clear men at the top who are both in the medal conversation and the 3rd spot is basically going for the Olympic experience.

Remember when Paniot was the potential anointed one following Nationals?

Well, he would probably still be in the conversation if he hadn't had the boot issue at Lombardia and whatever issue (injury?) that forced him to withdraw from SkAm. Seems like he's got some sort of injury since he hasn't been assigned to any of the later Challengers yet (maybe Golden Spin?). He could very easily show up at Nationals and surprise everyone again with an outstanding performance that lands him on the podium. But without any international competitions to back that up, I'm not sure how he even gets in the conversation for Olympic team selection.

 

[VGThuy]

I don’t think I’m requiring Jason to skate perfectly. Looking at his scores of his career thus far, it is pretty common for him to hit 170-175 (he usually does that multiple times a season) in the LP with 180 being the highest. That’s all I took into my calculations for Malinin. If I’m using some of the higher scores for Jason, it’s because all this talk for Malinin is about his “potential” and if we’re doing that for him, then it’s fair to do it for Jason, who actually has senior numbers to show he has hit the potential some of us have given him.

And yes I remember Paniot. I even asked about him a few posts ago, and I was the one who thought he had a chance of making the Olympic team if citizenship was there but I didn’t foresee him withdrawing from Skate America. Excuse me for that.

 

[Tavi]

Right now, Jason is in Group 3 with a median score of 262. He’s hit the top 10 at Worlds benchmark at his last 3 competitions, and I guess I’d consider his scores to be stagnant (262, 262, 259) rather than trending down. If he scores lower in France he may be in trouble, but so far I think he’s still in an okay position. Although I hate watching him fall and screw up his FS and I wish he’d stop.

Since Ilia has just barely hit the top 10 benchmark once (245), he will either have to score at least that at his challenger and at the JGPF, or score over 272 once, to make it into Group 3. I don’t think his club competition or qualifying scores count.

 

[DreamSkates]

I honestly have no idea what’s the “right” strategy because if he focuses on what he can do sans quad, he may not be taken “as seriously” but then maybe the quad is distracting him too much and not allowing him to skate his best in the long program. All I know is that he’s such a gorgeous skater and I just want him to skate well so he can have a real fighting chance against those who are capable of overtaking his TES base value in a way that his GOE and PCS can’t make up for. I just don’t know if focusing on being clean with all triples (and cleaning his 3A up) or keep trying for the quad no matter if it messes with the other jumps in the LP because he may have it in time for Beijing will give him have the best fighting chance.

Well it's not my choice but if it was, and I thought this might be my last Olympics I would go for broke and do everything I could to get a quad consistent. Think Nagasu - when was her best 3A?

 

[Karen-W]

Right now, Jason is in Group 3 with a median score of 262. He’s hit the top 10 at Worlds benchmark at his last 3 competitions, and I guess I’d consider his scores to be stagnant (262, 262, 259) rather than trending down. If he scores lower in France he may be in trouble, but so far I think he’s still in an okay position. Although I hate watching him fall and screw up his FS and I wish he’d stop.

Since Ilia has just barely hit the top 10 benchmark once (245), he will either have to score at least that at his challenger and at the JGPF, or score over 272 once, to make it into Group 3. I don’t think his club competition or qualifying scores count.

No, neither his club comp nor qualifying series scores count. Do keep in mind, that 245 was at the junior level. We'll have a better idea of what his senior scoring potential, internationally this season, is after Cup of Austria.

 

[DreamSkates]

It's not just the quad now, but Jason can't seem to do triples cleanly. He always has issues producing totally clean programs and he doesn't have multiple quads as an excuse. He's still in the convo because he consistently hits his SPs and has like 15-25 points that he earns from PCS/GOE over other men who have equal BVs (usually because they pop or mess up more ambitious material) for just being that sort of quality skater. He's probably the most beautiful skater competing at the moment and that does mean something because otherwise a skater with his TES ceiling would not usually be in the conversation.

That said, if Ilia Malinin is hitting his TES more and more and truly is capable of a TES of 110, then even with a 70 PCS (a PCS 23rd at 2021 Worlds LP Nikolaj Majoraj achieved), his LP score would be higher than any LP score Brown has ever achieved internationally outside of 2020 Grand Prix Final.

Jason looked pretty good at SC, so hopefully is gaining momentum and consistency as the season and training move along.

 

[tony]

I don’t think I’m requiring Jason to skate perfectly. Looking at his scores of his career thus far, it is pretty common for him to hit 170-175 (he usually does that multiple times a season) in the LP with 180 being the highest. That’s all I took into my calculations for Malinin. If I’m using some of the higher scores for Jason, it’s because all this talk for Malinin is about his “potential” and if we’re doing that for him, then it’s fair to do it for Jason, who actually has senior numbers to show he has hit the potential some of us have given him.

At Nationals, Jason's LP potential is even higher-- 191 in 2020, for example and I have no doubt he could do it again. Internationally, yeah. It's typically around 170 or so if we are averaging it from the last few seasons, which is still really strong-- and yes, he scores that with mistakes. But with it being an Olympic qualifier and the technical panel maybe being more lenient/judges surely being GOE and PCS happy, who knows what can happen if someone else like Malinin comes in with the momentum. But Malinin himself is still a big question mark anyways and has no track record in seniors except for the solid showing at the domestic Skate America last year.

I really think it's better for Jason to just stay conservative at Nationals and hope he doesn't start doubling jumps or having rotation problems with the Axel, which as you pointed out earlier is also a challenge lately. The Salchow was looking like a beauty in practice clips he shared at one time but I don't know that it's worth it to start off a program with a potential << and earning next to nothing on the element if it's not 100% ready. That, and the potential of getting hit with the PCS maximum ceiling, a double whammy.

And yes I remember Paniot. I even asked about him a few posts ago, and I was the one who thought he had a chance of making the Olympic team if citizenship was there but I didn’t foresee him withdrawing from Skate America. Excuse me for that.

I think there was a group of people worried about Jason from the start because of Paniot and didn't mean anything bad by recalling that prediction, but he IMO is someone where they could and would hold down his PCS 'if needed'. Last Nationals he gave it a good run but I think in a situation where he was truly in contention, there would be some behind the scenes work to make sure it didn't. I just have that feeling. But who knows if we even see him at Nationals or what is going on with him in general.

There's always Maxim Naumov, who definitely doesn't have the scores this year but he has potential as well.

 

[misskarne]

Yes, I think there is a clear top two. And I think it is the same clear top two that there has been all quad - Nathan and Jason.

In the last quad, Jason has had consistent GP medals, consistent GPF qualifications, consistent CS medals, consistent Nationals performances, consistent top-10 Worlds placings, and even won a 4CC medal. He didn't even get the domestic GP event last season because of the rona, and he still medalled at Nationals and did the job he was sent to do at Worlds. Jason has done literally everything you could ask of him in the last four years. The only thing he hasn't done is land a quad, but he's done a damn fine job without it.

As for Jason imploding - I am sure there are hundreds of skaters out there who would love to implode their way to a silver Grand Prix medal.

It's not going to sit right with a lot of people if Zhou, who jeopardised the third Olympic spot, is seen as "safe" for the team, whereas Jason, who secured it, is seen as the one who doesn't deserve the spot. That's not going to sit right with a lot of people at all. And nor should it.

 

[tony]

It's not going to sit right with a lot of people if Zhou, who jeopardised the third Olympic spot, is seen as "safe" for the team, whereas Jason, who secured it, is seen as the one who doesn't deserve the spot. That's not going to sit right with a lot of people at all. And nor should it.

I think 99% of people will be just fine if Zhou continues his season how it's gone so far, especially if he (qualifies for and) delivers in the GPFinal and Nationals. The other 1%... well they never liked Zhou anyways He does have a World medal in this last quad.

 

[VGThuy]

Those people - who aren’t happy with the current Skate America champion who recently stopped the Olympic gold medal favorite’s three season winning streak and defeated the reigning Olympic silver medalist and top 4 finisher at 2021 Worlds, who scored within the top 3 at Worlds 2021 at Skate America, the 2019 world bronze medalist, 2017 world junior champion, top six at 2018 Olympics, and multiple time national medalist who is capable of a 110 and higher TES in the LP and is close to 100 in the SP,being in the top two consideration for an Olympic spot, especially considering how the Olympic team selection criteria is for all everyone to see and Vincent clearly is on his way to making Group 1 consideration - need to get a grip and stop letting their prejudice and personal biases blind them. They are contorting themselves into a pretzel and starting to argue in favor of non-meritorious and unsportsmanlike and unfair selection procedures. I get it for young fans who are living through their favorite skaters but the ones who are over 17 need to start acting more maturely.