The Dance Hall 8: Join the Maskerade 2020-2021

[Bigbird]

Totally agree, if you only knew the half of the politics that go on behind the scenes!

My dear considering what we've seen these last couple of years, not to mention the fiasco of the 2020 ECs, say no more. Say no more .

 

[taz'smum]

My dear considering what we've seen these last couple of years, not to mention the fiasco of the 2020 ECs, say no more. Say no more .

I'm afraid it is even worse than you can imagine

 

[Wyliefan]

It must be terribly frustrating.

 

[sap5]

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GBR putting H/D in 7th place? What on earth??

 

[sap5]

I'm afraid it is even worse than you can imagine

Why can't they just judge according to the rules? I'm actually asking this seriously. What is the point of making up rules if it all comes down to politics??

 

[taz'smum]

Why can't they just judge according to the rules? I'm actually asking this seriously. What is the point of making up rules if it all comes down to politics??

That is why Ice dance is on its way out as an Olympic sport.

 

[Bigbird]

Why can't they just judge according to the rules? I'm actually asking this seriously. What is the point of making up rules if it all comes down to politics??

Because in truth, dance cannot be a sport, it's too subjective and there are too many deep seated prejudices. No matter what rules were created the judges would circumvent them just the same.

 

[sap5]

That is why Ice dance is on its way out as an Olympic sport.

Is it really? I've heard people say this for decades now, but it's still around. Has something finally changed?

 

[text_skate]

This national bias chart is interesting:

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The best resource for Figure Skating scores and stats on the web.

skatingscores.com

 

[Colonel Green]

If we have a regular Grand Prix this fall, there's going to be a real wildcard in that Papadakis & Cizeron are unseeded. I would guess they'll take IdF (obviously) and NHK (because the JSF doesn't have a dog in this fight and just wants the starriest possible cast), which makes both of those assignments much less attractive for skaters in both the first and second tiers of seeding. I'd assuming Gilles & Poirier and Hubbell & Donohue each get stuck with one of those, and have their home event as the other.

 

[thvu]

H&D will get to pick before G&P. Soo...

S&K to Russia and China. Won’t be US or Canada, and they definitely would avoid France and Japan in fear of facing P&C early in the season. They don’t want P&C to do to them what V&M did to P&C at 2016 NHK, establish a narrative early on of being the 2nd ranked Team.
H&D to US and JPN/FRA. It’s unavoidable for them to face P&C during the GP unless P&C do something crazy like somehow convince Skate Canada to invite them.
G&P to CAN and JPN/FRA. Same as above. It’s unavoidable. Unless USFS invites P&C for some reason.

Papadakis & Cizeron definitely go to France. The only other feds that would want them would be the Chinese Fed and the Japanese Fed. S&K would definitely choose China or Japan, and it would be 100% hilariously interesting if the fed wants to put S&K against P&C early in the season, and schemes for that to happen. P&C aren’t seeded, so it’s really up to the individual feds to decide. This would also cause all your own teams to drop one place automatically, so I can see only the Japanese fed wanting this match up if S&K let it happen by choosing Japan.

Chock and Bates can play spoiler to H&D and G&P. S&K probably have a one mistake lead on them now. It will be interesting to see where they end up! H&D should be considered firm US #1s now, so it would be stupid of USFS to pit their top teams against each other. They could be invited by anyone but US and Canada. It’s extra interesting if they are invited to the same GP(s) as Papadakis & Cizeron. It definitely screws one of the non P&C teams there in terms of early season rankings/placements.

And then there’s the other teams like Stepanova & Bukin, Guignard & Fabrri that are also hoping not to be at the same GP as P&C. Two silvers are a ticket to the GPF while two bronzes are most likely not.

These assignments are going to be crazy lopsided.

 

[Colonel Green]

And then there’s the other teams like Stepanova & Bukin, Guignard & Fabrri that are also hoping not to be at the same GP as P&C. Two silvers are a ticket to the GPF while two bronzes are most likely not.

Since G/F are last in the seeding, they're most likely going to get the bum assignments, i.e., wherever P/C are.

I'd guess Hubbell/Donohue will take NHK, since if you're going to be second, you might as well get a trip to Japan out of it.

 

[aka_gerbil]

Since G/F are last in the seeding, they're most likely going to get the bum assignments, i.e., wherever P/C are.

I'd guess Hubbell/Donohue will take NHK, since if you're going to be second, you might as well get a trip to Japan out of it.

I don’t know why we’re assuming now that H/D might not be the team to win. They are pretty formidable in their own right and I don’t think P/C did themselves any favors missing worlds.

 

[Karen-W]

Since G/F are last in the seeding, they're most likely going to get the bum assignments, i.e., wherever P/C are.

I'd guess Hubbell/Donohue will take NHK, since if you're going to be second, you might as well get a trip to Japan out of it.

I dunno... Paris isn't exactly a bad choice. Shorter flight and with IdF and RC coming at the end of the GP series this year, that would give them more time to prepare for the competition; beside the GPF is in Japan, so why make that trip twice? Strategically, it's smarter to force G/P into making that trip twice, especially since NHK is only 2 weeks after SC.

The more I think about it... Looking at the calendar...

P/C aren't going to want NHK - they'll prefer CoC, if they can get it, because that's 2 weeks before IdF this year.

I can't see the USFS or the RSF pitting their #1 & 2 teams against each other at any events, if they can avoid it; and if they're smart, they'll cooperate with each other to try and take down G/P - give C/B the SC assignment and S/B the CoC assignment (in the hopes that they can beat G/P for silver - which they might since G/P would have back-to-back assignments). Yes, G/F would get the "bum" assignments because they'd be looking at NHK (silver) and IdF (bronze) back-to-back - no way to they beat S/K, P/C and H/D.

S/K - NHK & RC
H/D - SA & IdF
G/P - SC & CoC
C/B - SC & RC
S/B - SA & CoC
G/F - NHK & IdF

 

[Colonel Green]

I dunno... Paris isn't exactly a bad choice. Shorter flight and with IdF and RC coming at the end of the GP series this year, that would give them more time to prepare for the competition; beside the GPF is in Japan, so why make that trip twice? Strategically, it's smarter to force G/P into making that trip twice, especially since NHK is only 2 weeks after SC.

Grenoble, not Paris. The French Grand Prix is an out-of-the way affair, it's just not nearly as fun an event as NHK.

That there's two events in Japan this year counting the Final is certainly true.

 

[Karen-W]

Grenoble, not Paris. The French Grand Prix is an out-of-the way affair, it's just not nearly as fun an event as NHK.

That there's two events in Japan this year counting the Final is certainly true.

Oh, good point. Still, Grenoble is much closer, travel-wise, even if it is out of the way (like Lake Placid is for the US, lol). I'd still pick it over traveling to Japan twice in the fall season.

 

[mjb52]

Wouldn't P & C want Canada because they train there? Is the assumption that the Canadian Fed wouldn't let it happen.

 

[Cherub721]

Crazy idea: since Spain didn't get a second spot and they haven't competed in over a year, can Diaz get British citizenship and S&D go for the second British spot?

 

[Colonel Green]

Wouldn't P & C want Canada because they train there? Is the assumption that the Canadian Fed wouldn't let it happen.

Yes, since they’re unseeded it’d be difficult to get an invitation there, even if they wanted it.

It’d also be ruffling feathers at a time when they presumably want the support of the Canadian fed/judges at the Olympics.

 

[Debbie S]

I would expect S/K to do CoC along with CoR, with H/D and G/P splitting IdF and NHK for their second event. My guess is C/B will also choose CoC (they've done it several times before and isn't it being held in the Oly arena?) and for the 2nd, they'd probably want a GP that P/C won't be at. The best case scenario would be to compete against G/P, who they might be able to beat, but the only opportunity might be at SC, and G/P will have the advantage of being at their home event. And even a 2nd place would get them to the GPF.

 

[Debbie S]

Sorry for double-post...

Crazy idea: since Spain didn't get a second spot and they haven't competed in over a year, can Diaz get British citizenship and S&D go for the second British spot?

I believe you can only get British citizenship by marriage (if no family ties like the Fear sisters).

 

[Immortelle]

Sorry for double-post...


I believe you can only get British citizenship by marriage (if no family ties like the Fear sisters).

Not true. But it would take too long.

 

[Karen-W]

Crazy idea: since Spain didn't get a second spot and they haven't competed in over a year, can Diaz get British citizenship and S&D go for the second British spot?

Would the Spanish fed even consider releasing them?

 

[Karen-W]

I would expect S/K to do CoC along with CoR, with H/D and G/P splitting IdF and NHK for their second event. My guess is C/B will also choose CoC (they've done it several times before and isn't it being held in the Oly arena?) and for the 2nd, they'd probably want a GP that P/C won't be at. The best case scenario would be to compete against G/P, who they might be able to beat, but the only opportunity might be at SC, and G/P will have the advantage of being at their home event. And even a 2nd place would get them to the GPF.

Remember, the GP schedule we've been used to the last several years has been switched up. The order this year is:

SA
SC
CoC
NHK
IdF
RC

I do think you are correct that S/K will choose CoC over NHK if it's being held at the Oly arena, the GP schedule is going to factor into the assignments, and both the RSF and the USFS would be wise to work together to try and knock both G/P and P/C down, if possible. Ice dance politics makes strange bedfellows and never let it be said that the USFS is all that smart when it comes to politicking, but neither is SkateCan, IMO.

Let's operate under the assumption that the RSF and USFS agree that their 1-2 will only face the other country's 4-5 once on the series. Let's also assume that they agree to have their 4-5 teams taking on G/P once each. Furthermore, you don't want to wear your teams out with back-to-back assignments. That means that S/B gets one of SA/IdF and one of SC/NHK; meanwhile C/B gets one of CoC/RC and one of SC/NHK. And, you throw a bone to the Italian fed by giving G/F the CoC assignment in the Oly arena, plus the one closest to home for them - IdF.

If @Colonel Green is correct that Skate Canada won't want to annoy the FFSG, then that leaves CoC and NHK as the only viable options for a 2nd event for P/C, and let's be real... The Chinese fed is probably going to care more about not irritating the RSF than the FFSG, so they'll pass on P/C - plus they'll market the heck out of having the reigning World Champs in S/K, and the JSF will gladly make money by having P/C headline their event. Yes, pushing P/C into NHK leaves S/B vulnerable to qualifying for the GPF if they can't take down G/P, but it's better than having 1) S/K lose to P/C at CoC, 2) a guaranteed bronze for S/B at IdF.

SA - H/D & S/B
SC - G/P & C/B
CoC - S/K & G/F
NHK - G/P & S/B, P/C
IdF - H/D & G/F, P/C
RC - S/K & C/B

 

[Colonel Green]

I do think you are correct that S/K will choose CoC over NHK if it's being held at the Oly arena

It's not. The Cup of China is in Chongqing; the Olympic test event is the Asian Open Trophy.

And, you throw a bone to the Italian fed by giving G/F the CoC assignment in the Oly arena, plus the one closest to home for them - IdF.

I don't see any reason why they'd cede the Italians a silver medal like that.

 

[Immortelle]

Would the Spanish fed even consider releasing them?

No way!! They live for the selection drama

 

[Karen-W]

It's not. The Cup of China is in Chongqing; the Olympic test event is the Asian Open Trophy.

I don't see any reason why they'd cede the Italians a silver medal like that.

That's what I was thinking when I made my original post, but Debbie made me wonder if I was wrong about CoC not being in Beijing.

SA - H/D & S/B
SC - G/P & C/B
CoC - G/P & S/B
NHK - S/K & G/F
IdF - H/D & G/F, P/C
RC- S/K & C/B

Not sure where you force P/C in my original scenario, if you want to avoid a S/K and P/C confrontation before the GPF. Maybe CoC, but again, you face the same scenario where you're ceding a silver to G/F and risking S/B can't take down G/P - of course, G/P would be doing back-to-back in my original scenario, which makes them more vulnerable to losing to both P/C and S/B. USFS and RSF won't invite P/C to SA or RC. Maybe Skate Canada says "eff it" and invites P/C, with the idea that it at least pushes C/B down to bronze, hopefully - though that's not a risk I'd necessarily take since G/P only won bronze today due to C/B's errors.

 

[princeton123]

Are Hawayek/Baker retiring after 2022? Because they are going nowhere in Montreal.

 

[Bigbird]

Are Hawayek/Baker retiring after 2022? Because they are going nowhere in Montreal.

They are doing quite fine. There is one style the judges want to see right now, and you just have to bring that. Right now ice dance needs a new V/M or P/ C to input some new verve.

 

[Marta24]

They are doing quite fine. There is one style the judges want to see right now, and you just have to bring that. Right now ice dance needs a new V/M or P/ C to input some new verve.

I think Camerlengo worked better for them as a choreographer. The connection in their Liebestraum FD seemed to me much more natural compared to what Montreal gave them the last few seasons.