USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for 2022 Olympics

[sheetz]

Alysa has met the Group 2 criterion but Vincent hasn't met the Group 1 criterion yet, and will have a difficult time doing so.

The document defines consistency using the median score taken from the list of approved international events, so in order to make Group 1 he would need a median score of at least 289.18.

Including Cranberry Vincent's scores so far are:

'21 Worlds: DNQ
Cranberry:288.28
Nebelhorn: 284.23

Meaning his current median score is 284.23. To make Group 1 Vincent will have to score at least 290.08 in each of his next 3 international events.

 

[Coco]

Arguably his median score is 190ish if they count worlds as a zero. I did that math in my head without coffee.

 

[sheetz]

Arguably his median score is 190ish if they count worlds as a zero. I did that math in my head without coffee.

You're thinking of mean (average). The median in this case would be the middle score, or 284.23.

 

[Coco]

You are completely right, thanks @sheetz

 

[Tavi]

You're thinking of mean (average). The median in this case would be the middle score, or 284.23.

You’re right, but because the sample size is so small, his median score doesn’t show consistency, which is pretty much the reason it’s used in the selection criteria. In fact it’s kind of misleading (since it ignores the 0 he scored at Worlds). That said, he’s off to a great start in his most recent two comps and hopefully that trend will continue.

 

[sheetz]

You’re right, but because the sample size is so small, his median score doesn’t show consistency, which is pretty much the reason it’s used in the selection criteria. In fact it’s kind of misleading (since it ignores the 0 he scored at Worlds). That said, he’s off to a great start in his most recent two comps and hopefully that trend will continue.

No, the median score does include Worlds. The median is the "middle" score in a list of numbers, so even if you assigned him a zero for Worlds the median score would still be 284.23.

ETA: The purpose of the median is to ignore outliers, which in this case is the Worlds score. Yes, it's a small sampling but so far Vincent does meet the requirements for Group 2. Of course that can change as the season progresses.

 

[Tavi]

No, the median score does include Worlds. The median is the "middle" score in a list of numbers. Even if you assigned him a zero for Worlds the median score would still be 284.23.

It counts it in the sense that it acknowledges a third score exists and so the middle number is the median. But because there are only three scores and the third score can be any score at all up to 284 - and in this case it’s 0 - IMO it is misleading to rely on his current mean as evidence of consistency. To put it another way, he scored really well in two competitions and bombed the third. You can’t erase what happened at Worlds, but assuming he continues to score very well this season, it will mean less.

 

[VGThuy]

Giving Vincent a "zero" is also misleading because total scores are being used, not just LP scores. Vincent's 2021 Worlds final total score was actually 70.51.* So his mean would be 214.34. His median will still be 284.23.

Please see: Official Final Standings as Recognized by the ISU, pg. 77.

 

[sheetz]

It counts it in the sense that it acknowledges a third score exists and so the middle number is the median. But because there are only three scores and the third score can be any score at all up to 284 - and in this case it’s 0 - IMO it is misleading to rely on his current mean as evidence of consistency. To put it another way, he scored really well in two competitions and bombed the third. You can’t erase what happened at Worlds, but assuming he continues to score very well this season, it will mean less.

Since Olympic team selection is not until January why get so worked up over Vincent's current numbers? It is what it is.

 

[Tavi]

Since Olympic team selection is not until January why get so worked up over Vincent's current numbers? It is what it is.

Sorry if I gave you that impression, but I’m actually not worked up at all. I agree that for all skaters, medians will change throughout the season, and it’s the median at the time of Olympic team selection that will count.

 

[VGThuy]

Since Olympic team selection is not until January why get so worked up over Vincent's current numbers? It is what it is.

Yeah. Right now, it's nice that he has numbers to calculate at the moment, but there are three GP events to go to see where every American male contender fits into that chart.

I will say in measuring "consistency", I think looking at the "median" and "mode" is far more useful than looking at the "mean" (unless the score ranges are uniform), if there are outliers that can mislead one to expect that sort of score for him. For example, whether you think Vincent Zhou's current mean is 190ish or 214.34, from looking at a "consistency" standpoint, we know from all his past results since he became a senior competitor, he has scored nowhere like that. On the low-end, he has mostly scored in the 230 range and, on the top end, he mostly scored in the 275-285 range. The mode will show what numbers he actually scores the most in, but with IJS, you usually never get the same score multiple times. The median will show the exact score that is the middle point of his range, and with an example with outliers skewing the picture of the final score, the median is often the best measure of central tendency. We will have a fuller score range by the end of the GPF.

 

[PRlady]

Yeah. Right now, it's nice that he has numbers to calculate at the moment, but there are three GP events to go to see where every American male contender fits into that chart.

I will say in measuring "consistency", I think looking at the "median" and "mode" is far more useful than looking at the "mean" (unless the score ranges are uniform), if there are outliers that can mislead one to expect that sort of score for him. For example, whether you think Vincent Zhou's current mean is 190ish or 214.34, from looking at a "consistency" standpoint, we know from all his past results he has scored nowhere like that. On the low-end, he has mostly scored in the 230 range and, on the top end, he mostly scored in the 275-285 range as a senior-level competitor. The mode will show what numbers he actually scores the most in, but with IJS, you usually never get the same score multiple times. The median will show the exact score that is the middle point of his range, and with an example with outliers skewing the picture of the final score, the median is often the best measure of central tendency. We will have a fuller score range by the end of the GPF.

I'm having nightmare flashbacks to Statistics 101....

 

[toddlj]

Realistically, I highly doubt that they will hold tightly to exact numbers around the time of the decision. More likely, a handful of points shy of some mark will be viewed as ~equal to it. They will crunch the numbers as they see fit to get the result they think is correct.

 

[Coco]

Yes, they'll be as specific as they want to be, depending on the skater.

That said, I do think it is a good attempt at quantifying specific achievements that skaters should shoot for and how they will be valued. Makes the whole process seem ever so slightly more transparent as opposed to just "we like you, we ignore your mistakes" or "oh god, not you and your every 2 years good performance/ fluke."

 

[Tahuu]

Since worlds was an incomplete competition for Vincent, his SP score or a zero should not be counted as his competition score. Vincent’s median score thus would be 286.26 for now. Tracking the scores as the season moving forward is to see where everyone may be on their way to potentially get or fight for an Olympic spot.

 

[Tavi]

Since worlds was an incomplete competition for Vincent, his SP score or a zero should not be counted as his competition score. Vincent’s median score thus would be 286.26 for now. Tracking the scores as the season moving forward is to see where everyone may be on their way to potentially get or fight for an Olympic spot.

As Sheetz said, what’s important is what the median is at the time of selection for the Olympic team, not what it is now. I’m sure Vincent will do very well going forward and this will be a non-issue. But arguing that Worlds 2021 shouldn’t count because it’s “incomplete” is a little disingenuous: Vincent completed as much of the competition as he was entitled to under the rules.

 

[Tahuu]

As Sheetz said, what’s important is what the median is at the time of selection for the Olympic team, not what it is now. I’m sure Vincent will do very well going forward and this will be a non-issue. But arguing that Worlds 2021 shouldn’t count because it’s “incomplete” is a little disingenuous: Vincent completed as much of the competition as he was entitled to under the rules.

By definition
Event score = SP score + FS score

The committee would not be mindlessly taking a SP score as Vincent’s event score.

 

[Tavi]

By definition
Event score = SP score + FS score

The committee would not be mindlessly taking a SP score as Vincent’s event score.

I completely disagree, but have it your way.

 

[Karen-W]

By definition
Event score = SP score + FS score

The committee would not be mindlessly taking a SP score as Vincent’s event score.

You are incorrect. The event score is the score you earned for the event. Vincent's event score for Worlds is only his SP score because he did not qualifyto advance to the FS.

But, really, any way you try to slice it, he hasn't yet scored equal or higher than the Top 3 at Worlds. He had, consistently, been scoring equal to the Top 5, which places him solidly in Group 2. I think it is quite possible he could, at his 2 GPs, score equal or higher than the 2021 Worlds Top 3, and if he qualifies for the GPF that will give him an additional chance to raise his score. But, right now, there is no way anyone can interpret Vincent's scores as having met the Group 1 criteria.

 

[Tahuu]

You are incorrect. The event score is the score you earned for the event. Vincent's event score for Worlds is only his SP score because he did not qualifyto advance to the FS.

But, really, any way you try to slice it, he hasn't yet scored equal or higher than the Top 3 at Worlds. He had, consistently, been scoring equal to the Top 5, which places him solidly in Group 2. I think it is quite possible he could, at his 2 GPs, score equal or higher than the 2021 Worlds Top 3, and if he qualifies for the GPF that will give him an additional chance to raise his score. But, right now, there is no way anyone can interpret Vincent's scores as having met the Group 1 criteria.

You don’t have an event score, be it due to withdrawal or dis/un qualification after competing in the short program.

 

[Karen-W]

You don’t have an event score, be it due to withdrawal or dis/un qualification after competing in the short program.

Baloney. https://results.isu.org/events/wc2021_Men.htm - Sure looks like Vincent has a score to me... what you don't seem to understand is that the SP WAS the complete competition for Vincent, and every single other skater who finished 25th or lower in the SP. The guy who was 30th can tell his friends "I was 30th at Worlds!" just like that guy who was 1st can tell is friends "I was 1st at Worlds!"

Vincent wasn't dis/unqualified from the competition the way Berezhnaya/Sikharulidze were the year she took the wrong cold medicine and received a 3 month drug ban post-Worlds that was retroactive to before Worlds, or the way that Chinese pairs team was the year China sent 3 teams to Jr Worlds when they were only qualified to send 2.

 

[MacMadame]

You don’t have an event score, be it due to withdrawal or dis/un qualification after competing in the short program.

That's not how it works. He didn't withdraw. He didn't qualify for the FS and that is reflected in both his event score and the points he got to determine Worlds/Olympic berths.

IIRC, everyone who does the SP but doesn't qualify for the FS gets 28 points, right? Or maybe 24? The point is, they all get an event score and points for the event. Vincent isn't special so he doesn't get to pretend he didn't bomb his SP.

 

[tony]

That's not how it works. He didn't withdraw. He didn't qualify for the FS and that is reflected in both his event score and the points he got to determine Worlds/Olympic berths.

IIRC, everyone who does the SP but doesn't qualify for the FS gets 28 points, right? Or maybe 24? The point is, they all get an event score and points for the event. Vincent isn't special so he doesn't get to pretend he didn't bomb his SP.

18 points

ETA here- from 2015-2017, there actually was no final placement and no score recorded on the final results list for skaters failing to get to the free skate. If you didn't make the top X (for example, 24 in singles), then you had no 25th or 33rd or whatever place. You just didn't finish the competition (and a second ETA- I know the ISU bios have specific placements for these events, but in the official ISUResults pages, the final placements are not listed for those years).

From the beginning of IJS until the end of the 2017 season IIRC, there was no final score listed for the skaters failing to make the final round (you didn't see a point total, just a FNR or DNQ or whatever). I'm pretty sure that is relatively new, starting in 2018.

 

[Tavi]

@Tahuu, as much as you might wish to completely erase Vincent’s failure to qualify for the Worlds 2021 FS, you really can’t. Just be happy that he’s doing well now.

 

[Tahuu]

Baloney. https://results.isu.org/events/wc2021_Men.htm - Sure looks like Vincent has a score to me... what you don't seem to understand is that the SP WAS the complete competition for Vincent, and every single other skater who finished 25th or lower in the SP. The guy who was 30th can tell his friends "I was 30th at Worlds!" just like that guy who was 1st can tell is friends "I was 1st at Worlds!"

Vincent wasn't dis/unqualified from the competition the way Berezhnaya/Sikharulidze were the year she took the wrong cold medicine and received a 3 month drug ban post-Worlds that was retroactive to before Worlds, or the way that Chinese pairs team was the year China sent 3 teams to Jr Worlds when they were only qualified to send 2.

Baloney.
That’s his SP score not his event score.

Take a hypothetical case. If Tennell would withdraw from SkAm after the short for 79 points due to her back flaring up and then withdraw from her ITA GP due to skate breakdown after an 80 pts short. She’d have no more competition until Nationals. Would her international median score be 80 (79, 80, 197.81)? That’s your real baloney.

 

[Karen-W]

Baloney.
That’s his SP score not his event score.

Take a hypothetical case. If Tennell would withdraw from SkAm after the short for 79 points due to her back flaring up and then withdraw from her ITA GP due to skate breakdown after an 80 pts short. She’d have no more competition until Nationals. Would her international median score be 80 (79, 80, 197.81)? That’s your real baloney.

A withdrawal due to injury or equipment failure is NOT the same, stop trying to equate what happened at Worlds with Vincent failing to advance from the SP to an injury withdrawal.

I don't know what USFS would do in your hypothetical situation but I suspect they would view it differently than Vincent's SP disaster in Stockholm.

And, for what it's worth, I think as long as Vincent's scores this fall are in the high-mid 280s range or higher then the USFS will overlook his Worlds SP but right now, he has had 2 comps and still has 3+ months until Nationals to keep on proving that Worlds was a complete aberration.

 

[VGThuy]

Vincent isn't special so he doesn't get to pretend he didn't bomb his SP.

To be fair, Vincent isn’t the one pretending.

Baloney.
That’s his SP score not his event score.

Take a hypothetical case. If Tennell would withdraw from SkAm after the short for 79 points due to her back flaring up and then withdraw from her ITA GP due to skate breakdown after an 80 pts short. She’d have no more competition until Nationals. Would her international median score be 80 (79, 80, 197.81)? That’s your real baloney.

No, his SP is considered his total score by the ISU at Worlds. You can’t argue against that. Your Bradie hypothetical is a false equivalency because injury-related withdrawals are treated differently than failure to qualify to the next round. I’m sure either way, Vincent is feeling good going into the GP season. Instead of dwelling on Worlds 2021, it’s more important for him to skate well at his GP events and qualify for the GPF. Even better if can pull off a medal there. By then, nobody will care what happened at 2021 Worlds…until we’re picking a man to do the team event SP….

 

[Tahuu]

A withdrawal due to injury or equipment failure is NOT the same, stop trying to equate what happened at Worlds with Vincent failing to advance from the SP to an injury withdrawal.

I don't know what USFS would do in your hypothetical situation but I suspect they would view it differently than Vincent's SP disaster in Stockholm.

And, for what it's worth, I think as long as Vincent's scores this fall are in the high-mid 280s range or higher then the USFS will overlook his Worlds SP but right now, he has had 2 comps and still has 3+ months until Nationals to keep on proving that Worlds was a complete aberration.

My point is the committee would not take a SP score as an event score in determining the median score.

 

[Marco]

Right... we are skating fans, not (all) mathematicians. I was merely trying to discuss their progress in meeting those criteria. The wording for Group 1 was indeed tougher ("consistently") so who knows if Vincent would hold up at all at his GPs or other comps.

This is not the official intepretation, but for me being a few points away (let's say 5) would probably still give the committee sufficient comfort even if they don't count that as meeting the Group 1 criterion. It's all in their discretion anyways.

 

[MacMadame]

18 points

Thanks!

To be fair, Vincent isn’t the one pretending.

True. Too bad his fans aren't that grounded in reality.

My point is the committee would not take a SP score as an event score in determining the median score.

And you know this how?