I don't even think Carreira/Ponomarenko are a safe third. They had a good showing at Worlds, but one bad program is all it takes
I'm glad that CPom have established themselves as a pretty solid U.S. second, but I'm even a little worried for them -- if there are enough shakeups, who knows what could happen?
CarPon have steadily risen up the ranks at Worlds each of the 3 seasons they've been - 9th, 7th, 5th. That isn't ONE good showing at Worlds and they've thoroughly established themselves as a solid US 2nd. Sure, poor programs could knock them down, but apart from their 1st season at IAM-O, they've had very solid material and I'd be surprised if they come out with anything but solid programs that keep them ahead of the rest of the pack now that they've got a bit of distance, score-wise, from GreenP and ZingKol & the rest of the mid-tier US teams.
They won't beat Chock & Bates. There's no way they can get to that level in one year.
AFAIK since this ended up true, they’ve already been back on the ice practicing at some level of seriousness for at least 8 months. Of course they haven’t faced the judges, but neither has the brand new team in France and people are worried that they will swoop in for Olympic gold apparently.
You never know what can happen over the course of one season.
I tend to side with those who think it's ridiculous to believe they're going to displace ChoBat as the US #1 - but I do think it will make ChoBat step up their game programs-wise and, hopefully, we'll get better material out of them than we have this Oly cycle - and they won't show up at their first GP with at least one programs that is universally panned or two mediocre programs that no one is particularly enthusiastic about.
FWIW, the same people who are pointing out that the ShibSibs didn't compete in the current choreo element-heavy environment are also choosing to ignore that Cizeron doesn't have much experience with the choreo element-heavy environment either - even in 2022, the choreo elements didn't carry the same impact on the overall score as they do now. I don't know that I'd bet much on either the ShibSibs or FBCiz being a threat to either ChoBat or GilPoir, who have both put some distance, score-wise, between themselves and the current #3-4 of FearGib and GuigFab. Personally, I think those two are in far greater danger of being displaced than either ChoBat or GilPoir.
Really, the SkateGods looked at all the bitching this past Olympic cycle about the "old couples" who need to retire - ChoBat (33/36), GilPoir (34/34) & GuigFab (36/38) - and decided what we deserve are "even older" couples in the next Oly quad battling it out for the podium - FBCiz (37/35), the ShibSibs (35/38) and StepBuk (34/36) will suck all the air out of the room & vie for gold 2030.

* ages listed are the ages that the current "old folks" will be in 2026 and the ages the new "even older" teams will be in 2030.