U.S. Women [#7]: Make Me a Believer!

SkateFanBerlin said:
Interesting. No one talking about Lui/Tennel. Switched places form the nationals to 4CC. If I were Tennel I`d let this season go. Concentrate until next season on making sure she is fit and getting in a second 3/3. If the Russians stay out of it it`s 2016. Someone with two 3/3`s might make it to Olys.
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As for Alysa, exactly 11 months ago, she formally announced a return to competition after a two year hiatus! Nothing short of remarkable!
 
What is there to talk about with Alysa and Bradie? Alysa got her worlds spot based on her season so far and her results at Nats. She still had a great competition. Bradie skated better here. That's just how it goes sometimes.
 
PRlady said:
If Ava comes back strong from injury as others have, next year will be a bloodbath at Nats.
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Based on international results, I think the field in contention for the Olympics is narrowing. Right now, I'd say anyone not named Glenn, Levito, Everhardt, Liu, or Tennell is at a huge "Body of Work" deficit. Anyone outside of those five will need to come out with guns ablaze next year -- winning Challengers, medalling on the GP, and delivering consistently.

Outside of those five, Elyce Lin-Gracey probably has the best shot, but she'll need a much more consistent season and probably a GP medal.

If Ziegler is serious about an Olympic run in this cycle, she needs to start even earlier and light up the scoreboard from the early summer competitions onward. A medal at Nationals is not going to do it for her, Lin-Gracey, or others if they don't back it up with major international medals, which the five I listed all have now.
 
“Bloodbath at Nationals” doesn’t just include the usual suspects, although even with five clear contenders for an assumed three spots, that means that two of them with championship and/or GPF medals will be slayed. It includes the possibility of at least others coming in to spoil the Nationals party without a blazing Fall season/BOW and not really being a consideration: they still can be spoilers and muddy the waters among the contenders and the decision of the selection committee.
 
Private Citizen said:
Based on international results, I think the field in contention for the Olympics is narrowing. Right now, I'd say anyone not named Glenn, Levito, Everhardt, Liu, or Tennell is at a huge "Body of Work" deficit. Anyone outside of those five will need to come out with guns ablaze next year -- winning Challengers, medalling on the GP, and delivering consistently.

Outside of those five, Elyce Lin-Gracey probably has the best shot, but she'll need a much more consistent season and probably a GP medal.

If Ziegler is serious about an Olympic run in this cycle, she needs to start even earlier and light up the scoreboard from the early summer competitions onward. A medal at Nationals is not going to do it for her, Lin-Gracey, or others if they don't back it up with major international medals, which the five I listed all have now.
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Ehhhhhh... A medal at Nats MAY be enough. It gets her in the Selection Pool per the USFS' Olympic Team Selection doc - top 5 actually, so not even a medal is required.

Now, will that be enough to put someone on the team without any other international results? No way. We have enough evidence to the contrary from the 2014, 2018 & 2022 selections to k ow the USFS won't go with just Nats results - see Mirai, Ross, Ashley, & Ilia if you want to challenge that assessment.
 
Unfortunately we have all seen hot skaters go cold or have a sophomore slump or nagging injury. Just bad programs can do it: look at Deanna/Max this year and last. Look at Green/Parsons and Loena and Miura. I would have sworn Kao was a lock for the Japanese 2026 Oly team but not this season.

So next year it could happen that Amber should have “waited” for the season of her life. Isabeau’s technique could catch up with her even if injury fully heals. Sarah could get inconsistent which is fatal for her type of skater. And so on….

I don’t think anyone is an absolute sure bet on the women’s side except Kaori unless she is god forbid injured. She’s been the dominant skater this quad, no one has her record.
 
Yes, let's not forget that Mariah Bell was on literally no one's radar until IIRC a 'decent' showing at her second Grand Prix event in 2021/2022. I can pull the posts- pretty sure just about everyone thought she was done for. She had two seasons of unmemorable programs (ABBA...) but she dumped both in the Olympic season, had one good event, and then got sent off to the Olympics as the National Champion.

You just never know, and I have no doubt that like always, favorites will crash and burn just as the season begins and others will probably be able to step up their game in a big way.
 
The upcoming season’s results won’t null out this season’s BOW inputs. Inconsistency and injury may muddy the waters, but those five can only lose it, while breaking into real consideration would take a dream first half of the season.

Aside from petitioning skaters, the Top 5 after the big calculations spreadsheet, the Top 5 at Nationals, anyone in the Top 10 in Boston, anyone in the Top 24 World Rankings for 2025-6 to date, and anyone with an individual medal (“in their discipline only”) in Beijing are included, plus anyone else who is considered a contender based on arguable criteria about consistency, difficulty of fields, trends, etc. if 2/3 of the selection committee agree.

https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2026%20FSK%20Athlete%20Selection%20Procedures%20FINAL%20OLY.pdf

While there will be a lot of overlap, it’s more like a Academy Award nominations: there’s a big list, but few have a real shot at winning, unless it’s like the year The Godfather had three Best Supporting Actor nominees, and the vote was so split that someone else won.
 
Looking at the protocols, Alysa Liu was a doubled Salchow away from a medal.

I just want to say that it's great to see 3 American women bring it more or less in a 4CC LP. I am still haunted by the days of JPN sweeps at 4CCs a decade ago in the wake of Gracie crashing & burning Sigh
 
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tony said:
Yes, let's not forget that Mariah Bell was on literally no one's radar until IIRC a 'decent' showing at her second Grand Prix event in 2021/2022. I can pull the posts- pretty sure just about everyone thought she was done for. She had two seasons of unmemorable programs (ABBA...) but she dumped both in the Olympic season, had one good event, and then got sent off to the Olympics as the National Champion.

You just never know, and I have no doubt that like always, favorites will crash and burn just as the season begins and others will probably be able to step up their game in a big way.
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While that’s true, 2022 was dire for seniors’ BOW. Of the Top 10 at US Nationals,

1. Chen had a 4th from 2021 Worlds.
2. Levito and Thorngren had excellent JGP seasons earlier that fall and medaled at JWC’s (post Olympics).
3. Izzo had bronze at US Classic
4. Shin won bronze at Lombardia

Liu and Glenn had to withdraw after the SP when they tested positive for Covid. In the Fall, Liu won Lombardia, Nebelhorn, and Cranberry, was 3rd after the SP, and was selected. (Her Jr. results were too early to count explicitly.). Glenn had a weak SP; she did have a silver from Golden Spin in 2021-22.

Not one championship or GP medal among the seniors for BOW. (Tennell had the other Top 10 finish at 2021 Worlds. I weep to see Taljegard placing 15th there with three Russians sweeping the podium and not able to make the minimums for Boston.) Everhardt and Tennell already have theirs, with Glenn, Liu, and Levito having Worlds ahead of them, plus Jr. Worlds coming up.
 
olympic said:
Looking at the protocols, Alysa Liu was a doubled Salchow away from a medal.

I just want to say that it's great to see 3 American women bring it more or less in a 4CC LP. I am still haunted by the days of JPN sweeps at 4CCs a decade ago in the wake of Ashley / Gracie crashing & burning Sigh
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I think Ashley just tuckered out; she`d been successful for several seasons.
 
2022 had a completely different selection criteria with the Tiered Groups based upon your season scores placing you into Four groups and the higher your group, the higher your priority for being selected to the team.

Alysa was pretty much guaranteed a spot, because she was the only woman in Group 2 going into Nats; and Mariah & Karen were next in line as the only two women in Group 3.

Amber, Bradie & Lindsay were the only ones in Group 4 and Isabeau wasn't even in the mix because she didn't compete at any Senior comps that fall, so she didn't have the TES mins. Lindsay did Warsaw Cup and got her Sr TES mins, but she wasn't really a factor, and neither was Bradie due to her injury keeping her out most of the season, including Nats.
 
The "Grouping" selection criteria was based on BOW. Levito was not age-eligible: my point was how weak the BOW among the senior-eliglble possible selectees in 2022. Based on what we've seen so far, I don't expect a quadless journeywoman ;) to be selected.
 
kwanfan1818 said:
The "Grouping" selection criteria was based on BOW. Levito was not age-eligible: my point was how weak the BOW among the senior-eliglble possible selectees in 2022. Based on what we've seen so far, I don't expect a quadless journeywoman ;) to be selected.
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No, it wasn't really. If you consistently, on average, were able to deliver a certain score, then yes, it was based on BOW, but if you managed to hit a certain score just once, you could also skate your way into a higher group - hence, Alysa's 219.24 at Lombardia put her in Group 2, even though the rest of her scores (205.74, 207.40, 206.53 and 202.90) would have put her in Group 3. Here's how it worked -
Group 1
Highest Priority		Group 2Group 3Group 4
Lowest Priority
CRITERIA
FOR 2022 US
CHAMPIONSHIPS		Placed in the top 3
AND		Placed in the top 5
AND		Placed in the top 3
OR		Placed in the top 5
OR
CRITERIA
FOR 2021
INTERNATIONAL
SCORES *		Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds
M – 289.18
W – 217.20
P – 217.63
D – 214.35

Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds
M – 272.04
W – 208.44
P – 201.18
D – 208.77

AND/OR
scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds		Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds
M – 245.99
W – 193.44
P – 184.41
D – 188.45

AND/OR
scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds		Consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds
M – 225.55
W – 178.10
P – 157.29
D – 178.18

OR
Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds

Here is the list of US Women from the 2021-22 season and their International Scores.

Women
Group 2 - Alysa Liu (205.74 Cranberry; 219.24 CS Lombardia; 207.40 CS Nebelhorn; 206.53 SCI; 202.90 NHK)
Group 3 -
Mariah Bell (179.42 Cranberry; 190.79 IdF; 210.35 Rostelecom)
Karen Chen (208.63 Worlds 2021; 173.00 CS ACI; 202.49 CS Finlandia; 183.41 SCI; 194.00 IdF)
Group 4 -
Amber Glenn (183.46 CS Finlandia; 201.02 SkAm; 175.83 NHK; 183.36 CS Golden Spin)
Bradie Tennell* (197.81 Worlds 2021)
Lindsay Thorngren (181.45 JGP Courchevel 1; 193.77 JGP Ljubljana; 184.40 CS Warsaw; JGPF)

Others with International Assignments
Starr Andrews (155.25 CS ACI; 177.63 SkAm; 157.35 CS Austria)
Hanna Harrell* (158.89 CS Golden Spin)
Gabriella Izzo (182.76 US Classic; 155.78 CS Warsaw; 167.96 CS Golden Spin)
Audrey Shin (174.73 Cranberry; 172.46 CS Lombardia; 160.78 SkAm; 169.99 CS Austria)
Sierra Venetta (159.72 Cranberry; 177.40 US Classic)

***yes, I still have the doc from 2022 - I saved it as a template to use if the USFS/USOPC went with the same or similar selection process again next season, lol.

ETA - but, yes, I do agree with your final point. We're not going to see someone on the team who may have an average score that puts her in the Top 15 at Worlds - these are solid Top 10, maybe Top 5 women we have in the mix now.
 
You're right: those scores were chosen from among the BOW, which could have proven disastrous, and thankfully, USFS has learned that being greedy about outlier does not realistic expectations make. For 2026, it's one big selection group, which gives them a lot to :argue: and :bribe: over, and for us to follow-up with hundreds of posts to determine whether they've actually applied their consistency, trending, etc. arguments to. As if the sample size and with each competition being its own clinical trial is some mathematical truth, but, as Gunn would say, "Make it work."
 
Private Citizen said:
Based on international results, I think the field in contention for the Olympics is narrowing. Right now, I'd say anyone not named Glenn, Levito, Everhardt, Liu, or Tennell is at a huge "Body of Work" deficit. Anyone outside of those five will need to come out with guns ablaze next year -- winning Challengers, medalling on the GP, and delivering consistently.

Outside of those five, Elyce Lin-Gracey probably has the best shot, but she'll need a much more consistent season and probably a GP medal.

If Ziegler is serious about an Olympic run in this cycle, she needs to start even earlier and light up the scoreboard from the early summer competitions onward. A medal at Nationals is not going to do it for her, Lin-Gracey, or others if they don't back it up with major international medals, which the five I listed all have now.
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Unless Levito medals at worlds again next month (or consistently lights it up next season), I’d put her on the outside, too. By the time Olympics roll around, her world medal will have been from two years ago. Remember what happened with Ashley Wagner in 2018? Her career was far more successful than what Levito’s has been to this date, and her world medal from two seasons prior didn’t get her on the Olympic team even though she came in fourth at 2018 nationals by a slim margin. There is a “what have you done for me lately?” factor for the body of work. Amber Glenn winning the Grand Prix Final this year along with Sarah Everhardt and Bradie Tennell medaling at 4CC has likely really helped their cases. Ultimately, I don’t think anything from the 2023-2024 season is going to factor into the decision of who makes the 2026 Olympic team. As of this year, all of Tennell, Everhardt, Glenn, and Lui have had for more notable seasons than Levito.
 
olympic said:
Looking at the protocols, Alysa Liu was a doubled Salchow away from a medal.

I just want to say that it's great to see 3 American women bring it more or less in a 4CC LP. I am still haunted by the days of JPN sweeps at 4CCs a decade ago in the wake of Ashley / Gracie crashing & burning Sigh
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Ashley never crashed and burned at 4CC's. She won it the last time she competed there then decided to never compete there again usually because she wanted more time to train for Worlds kind of like Ilia who treats it less then a Senior B competition and just blows it off. Gracie is the one who always seemed to have momentum coming off Nationals and then would bomb at 4CC. Crazy how so many less talented skaters then Gracie won medals but maybe she needed to do the Ashley thing too and just decline the invitation.
 
carriecmu0503 said:
Unless Levito medals at worlds again next month (or consistently lights it up next season), I’d put her on the outside, too.[...] There is a “what have you done for me lately?” factor for the body of work.
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I agree with you, generally, that Levito will have to finish in top three* among the five I listed above (+ any others who have breakout seasons). OTOH, as a former world and GPF medallist, there would be no reason to bump her off the team if she is in the top three.

Outlier possibilities that could change this:
  • Favorably: Levito wins another world medal or is the top placing American, or she qualifies for or medals at the GPF. A second world medal or a GPF medal would make her a near-lock
  • Unfavorably: She finishes outside of the top 10 at Worlds, bombs (below 6th place) or withdraws from her GP events, etc.

*This assumes three spots, which is likely but not a given.
 
Jammers said:
Ashley never crashed and burned at 4CC's. She won it the last time she competed there then decided to never compete there again usually because she wanted more time to train for Worlds kind of like Ilia who treats it less then a Senior B competition and just blows it off. Gracie is the one who always seemed to have momentum coming off Nationals and then would bomb at 4CC. Crazy how so many less talented skaters then Gracie won medals but maybe she needed to do the Ashley thing too and just decline the invitation.
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You are right. I edited my post
 
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