U.S. Ladies [#17]: Heading to Helsinki in a Handbasket

[Sylvia]

According to previous Grand Prix Announcements, the top 12 ladies at Worlds are guaranteed 2 GP assignments next fall (top 6 will be seeded skaters).

The ISU World Standings will be updated at the end of this season: all WS points from the 2014-15 season will be removed and the 2015-16 season points will be reduced to 70% value.

 

[eurodance2001]

Yikes, I hope she truly is ok... and more boot issues?? Ugh... http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/03/20/skater-karen-chen-reveals-accident-on-the-ice/

 

[Willin]

I'm not going to say more on the boot issues, but geez. You'd think people would be careful to give the national champ the right of way when she's doing a run-through of her program. It's good the resulting injury wasn't serious...

 

[mag]

@Willin The article seems to indicate that Chen has the boot issues under control. For some reason the new boots were ready for 4CC's but they are now and she also has a back up pair and a third pair already on order. I would say she has done everything possible to be prepared when it comes to boots.

ETA, not all collisions are right of way issues. It is possible that it was a case of being in a blind spot or coming out a spin in the wrong direction (or a different direction than the other skater was prepared for.) It sounds from what Karen said that it really wasn't a case a fault, just bad luck.

 

[Willin]

@mag Even if it's a blind spot/wrong direction thing, it's always best to be hypervigilant about where people are going in their programs. I may accidentally get in someone's way during spring when I don't know their program, but by the summer I have a good enough idea that I learn where they're going. If they're doing the program every day for nearly a year and I'm not able to anticipate where they're going so I can stay out of their way, that's my problem.
I've always been taught that the person doing the program has absolute right of way - that is, if you anticipate having a blind spot or spinning in their path, don't do it until they've cleared that part of the ice for long enough to do what you intend to do. If I don't know a program well enough (say, it's a visiting skater), I simply watch where they're going carefully before proceeding.

 

[Sylvia]

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/03/20/skater-karen-chen-reveals-accident-on-the-ice/

Karen Chen had her first pre-Worlds media teleconference call yesterday (the above article was based on the call) - link to the audio: http://web.icenetwork.com/video/topic/220125674/v1244052183

Lynn Rutherford tweeted afterwards: https://twitter.com/LynnRutherford/status/843952020608499712

Karen Chen went to Canton for FS tune-up w/Zoueva, Epstein; result is new footwork she "likes much better."

Mariah Bell's and Ashley Wagner's calls took place this afternoon - more tweets by Rutherford:

On call, [Bell] said she was "maybe holding back a little bit" at 4 Continents. Wants to attack her jumps more at #helsinki2017

On call [Wagner] says she & [Jeff Buttle] re-worked her short to be "less of an exhibition" with "less two-foot skating."
She worked w/ @shaelynnbourne to "layer a bit more on" her FS: "I thought the 2nd half was sloppy at nats"

 

[pinky166]

Well with Satoko and Zijun out dare I say the US ladies have a pretty good chance at keeping 3 spots?? I'm cautiously optimistic, though it's a bummer Satoko and Zijun won't be there.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Zijun

What you talkin about Willis?

When did this happen?

 

[Frida80]

What you talkin about Willis?

When did this happen?

Just happened today. She was removed from the list.

 

[Coco]

So sad!

 

[Dobre]

Well with Satoko and Zijun out dare I say the US ladies have a pretty good chance at keeping 3 spots?? I'm cautiously optimistic, though it's a bummer Satoko and Zijun won't be there.

SB scores from athletes now listed for Worlds:
1. Medvedeva
2. Pogorilaya
3. Osmond
4. Kostner
5. Mihara
6. Sotskova
7. Daleman
8. Wagner
9. Higuchi
10. Bell
11. Lecavelier
12. Choi
13. Hongo
14. Tursynbaeva
15. Rajicova
16. Chen

Well, there's the competition. Feel free to move them around/analyze as you would like. I think it largely depends on which Ashley, Mariah, and Karen show up. (And which Kaetlyn, Carolina, Gabrielle, & Wakaba).

 

[DobrinFan]

SB scores from athletes now listed for Worlds:
1. Medvedeva
2. Pogorilaya
3. Osmond
4. Kostner
5. Mihara
6. Daleman
7. Wagner
8. Higuchi
9. Bell
10. Lecavelier
11. Choi
12. Hongo
13. Tursynbaeva
14. Rajicova
15. Chen

Well, there's the competition. Feel free to move them around/analyze as you would like. I think it largely depends on which Ashley, Mariah, and Karen show up. (And which Kaetlyn, Carolina, Gabrielle, & Wakaba).

You forgot Maria She's #6. I guess it really doesn't matter, forgot which thread I was in

 

[Dobre]

You forgot Maria She's #6. I guess it really doesn't matter, forgot which thread I was in

Thank you. I knew I would miss someone. I edited above.

 

[olympic]

Honestly, I love to analyze. But, ladies give me a major headache this year. I'm somehow more vested in the men

 

[Vagabond]

Wagner and Chen are certainly capable of eclipsing their Season's Best. I would be disappointed if they didn't. Bell should be able to do so too.

 

[made_in_canada]

I'm not going to say more on the boot issues, but geez. You'd think people would be careful to give the national champ the right of way when she's doing a run-through of her program. It's good the resulting injury wasn't serious...

Unless there's some other source with more details, the article posted doesn't actually say she was running a program. Most times these kinds of accidents don't happen during program run throughs.

I'm glad she seems to be okay.

 

[Marco]

Wow I didn't realize Ashley was only 8th highest on SB list amongst Worlds competitors. I suppose the 4CCs panel was quite generous and she missed out on that.

I suppose she can be as high as 5th on a good day, behind 2 Russians, Carolina and Kaetlyn. But to have Mariah as high as 8th as well can be quite tough and will likely require her to be completely clean and have Mai, Maria S and Gabby mess up a little (not that I am wishing ill on others). Has Mariah had a clean short program all season?

 

[Mayra]

Mariah Bell's and Ashley Wagner's calls took place this afternoon - more tweets by Rutherford:

You can always trust on Ashley to work on any weakness and try to improve on criticisms she's received throughout the season. Her work ethic is her biggest asset.

 

[Vagabond]

I suppose she can be as high as 5th on a good day, behind 2 Russians, Carolina and Kaetlyn.

You have watched Osmond's Free Skate from 4CC's, haven't you?

 

[berthesghost]

I suppose she can be as high as 5th on a good day, behind 2 Russians, Carolina and Kaetlyn.

just to clarify, am I right in understanding that the "she" referenced here is the current world silver medalist?

 

[mag]

You have watched Osmond's Free Skate from 4CC's, haven't you?

I do think that Osmond is a far superior skater than Wagner. Skating skills, performance, jumps, spins, choreography all go to Osmond. That said, if I had to put cold hard cash on who would come out ahead at worlds ... I would go with Wagner. Kills me to say it, but so often it isn't about who is the best skater, but who can hold it together the best on the day. Osmond just hasn't figured that bit out. Like Wagner she is a bit of a late bloomer. Unlike Wagner, if she does figure it out she will be unstoppable because her skills are arguably among the best if not the best in the world.

 

[VGThuy]

I think people are just unsure about Wagner's chances since her last international competition was Cup of China and we know how that went with a tough caller...well calling Shin Amano a tough caller is underestimating what he does.

 

[pinky166]

I think people are just unsure about Wagner's chances since her last international competition was Cup of China and we know how that went with a tough caller...well calling Shin Amano a tough caller is underestimating what he does.

But momentum is important in figure skating. Right now Ashley doesn't have much from this season. No GPF, not national champion, did not compete at 4CCs, was not at her best at Skate America.

While someone like Osmond or Sotskova is coming off a "low" from their performances/placements at 4CCs and Euros, respectively, they both probably have more momentum this season overall than Ashley. Then you have someone like Carolina coming off a great result at Euros where she beat Pogo in the FS. Mihara also has momentum, and in a way Daleman too since she was 2nd at 4CCs.

Ashley could medal at Worlds but I think a 4-6th place finish is most likely.

 

[RockTheTassel]

I think the ladies are especially interesting and frustrating this year because there are so many possible outcomes and wildcards. For example, it wouldn't be surprising to see Kaetlyn on the podium, but it also wouldn't be shocking if she ended up in 10th place. It seems like a lot of skaters have the potential to do really well or really poorly.

 

[Sylvia]

Karen Chen had her first pre-Worlds media teleconference call ... - link to the audio: http://web.icenetwork.com/video/topic/220125674/v1244052183

Recap article by Michelle Kennedy: http://figureskatersonline.com/news/2017/03/21/karen-chen-strives-to-overcome-obstacles/

Audio links for the 2 calls yesterday:

Ashley Wagner: http://web.icenetwork.com/video/topic/220125674/v1244734783 (eta: see below for an article based on this call)

Mariah Bell: http://web.icenetwork.com/video/topic/220125674/v1244737083

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

ASHLEY WAGNER news from today /
Pressure on Ashley Wagner at world championships

http://olympics.nbcsports.com/2017/03/22/ashley-wagner-world-figure-skating-championships/

“Next year is the year that I am, like, in it to kill,” she said. “This year is maintaining. This year is my chance to work out all of the kinks, figure out where I want to be mentally going into next year.”


But Wagner is nearing the end of her (so far) least impressive season in probably six years. She is seeded eighth at worlds by this season’s top international scores.

She failed to qualify for December’s Grand Prix Final for the first time since 2011. She was beaten at nationals despite longtime rival Gracie Gold underperforming.

Wagner said she hasn’t watched any of Medvedeva’s programs this season.

Wagner, a seasoned 25 years old, noted a key point this week. She is the only active women’s skater in her class, with her length of experience, who hasn’t taken a break.

 

[Marco]

Yes she is the reigning silver medalist, but this year she will no longer be skating at home at Worlds and her free program isn't nearly as engaging. Her jumps and spins continue to have issues so I want to be cautiously optimistic. I think 5th is pretty fair given how this season has gone so far.

Kaetlyn has had a streak of clean SPs and 2 mistake-LPs but her elements have been so strong that she still racks up so much points. I don't know what Carolina's content is going to be but she is the only one who can challenge Evgenia on PCS (rightly or wrongly).

 

[olympic]

I'm cautiously hopeful about Ashley. Mistakes at CoC aside, she is mature and knows what to do, when and how to do it, and how to pace herself towards Worlds.

 

[clairecloutier]

One thing I respect about Ashley is that the team's situation is never out of her mind. She realizes she's there not only for her own results but also to get spots for the team. I have never once heard her try to minimize that fact, she always knows what's at stake (as that NBC Olympics article makes clear). There are a lot of things I respect about Ashley; that's definitely one of them.

 

[berthesghost]

The venue will be Ashley's biggest challenge. One only has to look at the results from '99 worlds to see whom is at an advantage in Helsinki.

Otherwise, it's all up for grabs. I don't recall anything from last season at this time that screamed "Ashley is going to win silver at worlds for sure!" so predictions of doom are all just hand-wringing at this point imo, especially given that her two main projected blocks to the podium are a returning veteran who may not even attempt a lutz and a Canadian who's shown nothing beyond promise thus far. Plus she did indeed win silver with called out underrotaions, a step out and spin downgrades, so....