Madhatter
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I have no clue. I guess it'd depend on how much Uno wanted to do the LP and how confident the JFS felt about Hanyu's ability to win the SP over Nathan vs Uno's ability to win SP over Nathan.
Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)
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I have no clue. I guess it'd depend on how much Uno wanted to do the LP and how confident the JFS felt about Hanyu's ability to win the SP over Nathan vs Uno's ability to win SP over Nathan.
butyrskafanatic
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I think either Uno or Hanyu have the ability to win the short program over Nathan without doubt if they go clean. Especialy as Nathan rarely does a 100% clean short anyway. So even that is a wash really. Hanyu would for sure score higher than Uno if both goes clean, but he less often does the short clean.
Fiero425
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What in the world is going on at the 4CC? I haven't been watching much, so checked results! What 's going on with Grant Hochstein? He's in 15th place after the SP! Why is Jason skating instead of Ross Minor? Is he pouting over not being selected to the Olympics as the Silver medalist? Wagner also declined to go it seems; another spoiled brat or what? I never heard about any injuries so that's where my thinking is going!
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butyrskafanatic
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What in the world is going on at the 4CC? I haven't been watching much, so checked results! What in the world is going on with Grant Hochstein? He's in 15th place after the SP! Why is Jason skating instead of Ross Minor? Is he pouting over not being selected to the Olympics as the Silver medalist? Wagner also declined to go it seems; another spoiled brat or what? I never heard about any injuries so that's where my thinking is going!
Miner and Wagner WD about a week ago. It was probably over dissapointment over missing the Olympic Team.
I don't see how Russia can be the favorite. They are strong in just one discipline. Canada has no weakness.
Anyasnake
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The "weakness" could be in the Men event, it depends on what Patrick Chan delivers.
Chan is capable of delivering at least a bronze medal quality performance.
butyrskafanatic
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Russia is extremely strong in both ladies and pairs. They have a pair that is a strong contender for an Olympic medal and outside contender. They are fairly strong in mens and dance, although not great in either.
If you compare Russia to Canada, they are far stronger in ladies even if Canada is also pretty good in ladies, as strong or stronger in pairs, weaker in dance, it is hard to say for the men but Kolyada has been skating better than Chan this year and I would actually bet on him to outplace him and if Canada uses 2 men Russia is definitely stronger right now. Chan hasnt done any skates this year that are technically competitive, not even his Canadians skates which probably wouldnt have even medalled at Europeans.
butyrskafanatic
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Sure, but he isnt likely to. Since his comeback he has not made it back onto the world podium, and this season he is skating far worse than the previous two. Kolyada has been skating better and posting higher scores and getting better results than Chan this year. There is also a good chance Canada uses a 2nd man, in which case they are really behind.
Anyasnake
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Let's say Hanyu, Kolyada, Chen it's already 4th place. But then it might be the only "weakness", because Dance is either 1 or 2. Pairs is capable of being 1-2-3 depending on who is here (perhaps Savchenko/Massot won't do it), Ladies there is RUS + ITA + JAP that are challengers at least in the short dependint on how clean is Osmond.
Fiero425
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IMO Chan has always been at a disadvantage; esp. these days when the quad is so necessary! His 3 Axel has always been his Achilles heel and I wouldn't depend on him doing great things for the team! Plushenko has a better chance of coming out of retirement and excelling in this position of old vets contributing to a team!
butyrskafanatic
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I would say Duhamel & Radford are clearly weaker than Sui & Han right now, probably weaker than Tarasova & Morozov even though they barely beat them at the GPF with T&M having one of their worst performances (I prefer D&R but the judges love T&M and they are consistent, so it is unlikely for D&R with consistency issues and weaker PCS and GOE to beat them much), and Savchenko & Massot are probably stronger if they do the Team Event even if Germany would almost certainly do just one round. Canada will also likely use 2 pairs, and all those countries, and perhaps a couple others could beat the 2nd Canadian pair.
Really though if I were to handicapt now, while Canada could beat Russia in pairs and mens, I wouldnt bet on Russia losing any points to Canada in those events, and possibly gaining in both, especialy with the decent likelihood of one/either using a 2nd team/person where Russia has more depth in both.
Anyasnake
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Pairs is the most unpredictable for me. On an average day, S/M and S/H battle it out, T/M are 3rd and D/R 4th but that's not a given that is just... PCS scores
That's why it's unexpected.The only certainty is Chen. We don't know what Hanyu is capable of, after his injury. Kolyada hardly ever skates a clean SP or LP. Boyang Jin and Shoma Uno could factor in, but they could fall too. IMO the field is wide open for anyone that can skate a clean SP and helps his country get in the LP. I don't know if Patrick has skated a clean SP this year. If he has, he has as good a chance as other top skaters.
butyrskafanatic
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Pairs is the most unpredictable for me. On an average day, S/M and S/H battle it out, T/M are 3rd and D/R 4th but that's not a given that is just... PCS scores
Agreed, I just pointing out that comparing Canada to Russia right now IMO Russia doesnt compare unfavorably anywhere other than obviously dance. Even if Canada doesnt compare that unfavorbably anywhere but ladies, and their ladies are probably stronger than Russian dance right now. It will be close and could go either way IMO.
butyrskafanatic
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Even if he skates a clean SP he has a lower base value than others, and wont beat people like Hanyu/Uno or Chen if they also go clean. Kolyada also has a higher potential base value in the SP but Chan going clean could come out ahead on PCS. Either way I dont see a big disparity between Chan and the Russian men (either Kolyada or Aliev based on his on fire performances at Europeans) right now, and with Chan's massive inconsistency on jumps this year if anything he is probably behind. And if Canada uses a 2nd man which IMO they are quite likely to, and if they dont it means they are probably using Weaver & Poje or Sequin & Bilodeau either which drops them some points; Russia is stronger as both their men are much stronger than Messing and will probably quite far outplace him in whichever program each does.
Canada probably has to use no subs other than ladies (and every country uses the 2 max typically) to even stand a chance vs Russia.
I think not.
VGThuy
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In hindsight, the US should not have used Jeremy Abbott in the SP. He could have done the LP where the worst he could have done was 5th.
butyrskafanatic
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Agreed, but after Brown had such a spectacular LP at Nationals to make the team they were probably always going to use him in the LP. And the National Champion was never going to not skate in the Team Event.
Could the U.S have challenged for silver if they switched the two? I seem to remember them being pretty far back of Canada.
VGThuy
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Probably not, you wanna minimize your losses and the SP made Jeremy public enemy no. 1 around here. It didn’t help that it came after the interior decorating remarks.
joubertelegant
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Poor Jeremy. I always loved him, such a talented skater, and he seemed like a great guy. I wish he had sorted out his mental competitive issues as he always had the talent to be a World or Olympic medalist, maybe even a World or Olympic Champion, particularly as he competed before the time of so many quads which he probably could have never managed but the 1 or 2 that was the norm back then was well within him. He seems nervy and paranoid as a person, even when doing interviews, which probably resulted in his competitive anxiety.
Jarrett
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Ashley is probably busy doing interviews much like the rest of the season when should could have been training.
skatingguy
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Yes, they didn't qualify an athlete for the individual event, but there are extra athlete quota set aside for this eventuality and so they have a Ladies skater for the Team Event. I think it's a pretty sweet deal for Aimee Buchanan really. She gets to be an Olympian, skate a short program Feb. 11 (Israel has not chance to be top 5) and then enjoy the Olympic experience and cheer on her teammates for the next two weeks.
skatingguy
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If you take Jason Brown's score in the short program from the Men's event and apply it to the Team Event, that would put him 4th - but still behind Patrick Chan - so it would close the gap from 5 points to 2 points.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_skating_at_the_2014_Winter_Olympics_–_Team_trophy
coppertop1
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N
It is pretty sweet. She gets her Olympic moment then can enjoy the rest of the games.
I think Canada will sub in pairs and women. I really can't see them getting Messing to skate.
I can see Tennell doing the SP. She doesn't have a UR problem so the USA won be pushed down in the Ladies Event. Nathan Chen might do both, he seems more consistent than Rippon. Would they use Zhou?
I think the teams who make it to the LP will be: Canada, Russia, USA, Japan and Italy.
It is pretty sweet. She gets her Olympic moment then can enjoy the rest of the games.
I think Canada will sub in pairs and women. I really can't see them getting Messing to skate.
I can see Tennell doing the SP. She doesn't have a UR problem so the USA won be pushed down in the Ladies Event. Nathan Chen might do both, he seems more consistent than Rippon. Would they use Zhou?
I think the teams who make it to the LP will be: Canada, Russia, USA, Japan and Italy.
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If China makes the free, US's advantage over China in dance will narrow there, for example.
butyrskafanatic
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Interestingly had Jeremy dont his U.S Nationals SP he probably would have been 2nd to Hanyu (his score from Nationals would have been 1st but naturally I expect that would drop somewhat) which would have tied the U.S with Canada if all else remained the same?
coppertop1
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After watching 4CC, I think Japan should let Sakomoto skate in the Team Event. She is more consistent than Miyahara. Miyahara can do the SP, she seems to do well there. Then Sakomoto can do the LP.
butyrskafanatic
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I am pretty sure Japanese ladies will plan to split. For starters they only have 2 events they can even reasonably substitute in (ladies and men) if they make Team Finals. Having Sakomoto do the LP makes sense as there are fewer jumps in the short program and Miyahara can get through that without a call often.
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