Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)

[Karen-W]

So I ran a few different scenarios and I think a lot may come down to the men event (who is skating, and how they skate). Pairs and Dance seem pretty set to me.

I think the qualifiers for the free will be in order: CAN, RUS, then JPN/US in either order, and the last spot will be between CHN/ITA. Depending on which men the US uses, how well M/R skate in the dance event, and which one between CHN and ITA qualifies, JPN really may challenge the US for bronze.

I think we will see some surprises in terms of selection for the teams, as not all countries may care about the team event (especially the ones not in the running for medals).

I was running scenarios for the Team Event last night and I agree that 5th place is a toss-up between ITA & CHN. The US would be better off if Italy makes the final - one less man to challenge Nathan for 1st place points. And, if S-K/K skated up to their potential, they could beat either of the Italian teams, which won't happen against any Chinese team. Japan is hampered by having a pairs and dance team that will finish last in the final. Yes, M/R will probably finish 6th in the short but their pairs team is going to be battling it out with the Israelis and South Koreans for 8th-10th place points. On paper, Italy should score more points than China, and make the Final again, but just a single different placement could flip the points in China's favor. My instinct says China is the surprise 5th place team and makes the final. At that point, the US is going to be fighting to hold onto bronze. If, for some reason, Italy does make the Final instead, the US could challenge for silver.

Any way you slice it, if Chen wants to skate both programs, I say let him and split the ladies and dance. But, I wouldn't make a decision on that until after the Short programs are finished because the strategy should be different based on whether it's China or Italy that makes the final.

 

[butyrskafanatic]

I think a lot of countries have men that have a good shot of beating Rippon and Zhou, especialy as either is inconsistent. That is another reason it wouldnt surprise me one bit if Chen skates both programs.

 

[levineismine]

@RoseRed I agree with your analyses re teams not running for medal. I don't see the reason for P/C to compete in the team event unless it's to have a taste for Oly ice, but they may want to keep the momentum from GPF/Euros. Based on the interviews to Team Italy (not Kostner), they are going all in for the team event so I think they at least want to make the final and will have Kostner do at least the SP.
@Karen-W I had the same scenario, where if China qualifies instead of Italy it makes it harder for the US, especially if Chen does not skate the FS.

 

[Bellanca]

That is why I believe the team event still falls short.

As the narrative goes, certain skaters shouldn't bother with the team event because their country doesn't have a prayer for a medal, but, yet, the pressure is constantly applied on these skaters to compete for viewership, ratings, etc. However, they are expected to put aside their concerns over the wear and tear, possible injury or burnout to themselves. Of course, that is a concern for all the skaters competing in the team event, but when your country doesn't have a prayer for the podium... That sucks! Sorry, but it does. Sure, these skaters can choose to sit it out, but TPTB aren’t particularly thrilled when that happens.

I like the team event, but as of now, it is still severely flawed. JMHO.

 

[Dobre]

(and did I read somewhere, maybe just a rumor, that the Shibs wanted to skate both?)

I believe that at some point shortly after the GPF both Nathan & the Shibs said they are ready to skate both. I'd guess that--as the U.S. athletes to medal at the GPF--these three were probably asked the question specifically. I wouldn't leap to the conclusion that they will skate both. I just take it to mean that they have entered the post season mentally prepared to do so & the possibility is in the cards. My guess is that most--if not all--of the members of the U.S. team would likewise have said they are happy to skate both programs. And we shall have to see how things play out now that Nationals is complete and the full team has been chosen. It sounds like someone (USFSA or the team selection committee?) is likely to have made suggestions based on individual & team strategy, though it doesn't seem clear if they would recommend a specific program to said athletes. (Of course, we all know the short is where the most points can be won or lost).

 

[butyrskafanatic]

I think for most teams the only skaters who would say they wouldnt like to skate both are the pairs skaters, since that is the first event up. Of course for the U.S there is no alternative.

 

[Sylvia]

Article in English that says Yuzuru Hanyu is not expected to participate in the team event: http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201802030030.html

PYEONGCHANG, South Korea--Still nursing an injured ankle, Olympic champion Yuzuru Hanyu will concentrate on the men's single figure skating event at the Pyeongchang Olympics.
...
Several sources said that Hanyu would not arrive in South Korea in time for the team event.
...
At Pyeongchang, Japan's two other male skaters, Shoma Uno and Keiji Tanaka, will take part in the team event, which involves all four figure skating disciplines.
No decision has been made on how the roles would be distributed for the men's part of the team event. One skater could do both the short program and free skating, while the other option would be to have Uno and Tanaka split up the two programs among themselves.

 

[Braulio]

Well there goes the chance of Japan getting the bronze medal, unless they sacrifice Shoma Uno doing both SP and FS but I don't see the utility of Tanaka doing any of them

 

[VGThuy]

I can't help but be worried about the state of Yuzuru right now.

 

[Spun Silver]

I can't help but be worried about the state of Yuzuru right now.

It's hard to believe he is in fighting shape after that big and dreadfully timed injury. I feel so bad for him. I hope he rises like a phoenix though!

 

[screech]

I'm thinking Canada might use both D/R and S/B in pairs. Meagan just shared a photo of her, with S/B having received a standing O from Air Canada crew when boarding their flight. No MT-M in the picture, making me think they'll be leaving later. Leaving today makes it seem like both D/R and S/B will be doing the team event.

 

[RoseRed]

I'm thinking Canada might use both D/R and S/B in pairs. Meagan just shared a photo of her, with S/B having received a standing O from Air Canada crew when boarding their flight. No MT-M in the picture, making me think they'll be leaving later. Leaving today makes it seem like both D/R and S/B will be doing the team event.

Michael posted on Instagram "5 more sleeps till we put the guards on for the big trip across the globe!" 2 days ago, so I'd say you're right. That's what I figured they'd do anyways.

 

[Rafter]

I'm thinking Canada might use both D/R and S/B in pairs. Meagan just shared a photo of her, with S/B having received a standing O from Air Canada crew when boarding their flight. No MT-M in the picture, making me think they'll be leaving later. Leaving today makes it seem like both D/R and S/B will be doing the team event.

Yes seems that way. Suspect D/R are doing the SP and S/B doing the long.

 

[screech]

Kind of makes me disappointed. Happy for S/B to get the shot, but wish dance was being split instead of pairs.

 

[Anyasnake]

Kind of makes me disappointed. Happy for S/B to get the shot, but wish dance was being split instead of pairs.

This was expected though. If Canada wants gold they have no choice but to have V/M skate both programs.

 

[laviemn]

This was expected though. If Canada wants gold they have no choice but to have V/M skate both programs.

It's possible Canada wins gold with W/P skating a segment, but it's also possible for any of their singles and pairs to bomb, so why not use a team like V/M as a cushion if you have that luxury? Also, there's always the specter of Poje's twizzles.

 

[lynnmacd5]

Kind of makes me disappointed. Happy for S/B to get the shot, but wish dance was being split instead of pairs.

I would love to see
Patrick do both
KO do SP and GD do FS
D/R do both
V/M do SD and W/P do FD

I think W/P deserves Olympic medals and this will likely be their only opportunity.

 

[WildRose]

Canada is going for the Gold and to get that they need to go with their best.

 

[Braulio]

Canada will win the gold by 1 or 2 points over OAR team, the 20 points from Virtue/Moir will do the difference

 

[Karen-W]

Canada will win the gold by 1 or 2 points over OAR team, the 20 points from Virtue/Moir will do the difference

I don't think they will, to be honest. I fully expect T/M to beat D/R in the SP, possibly by a couple places. Ladies - hard to say how things will shake out but the points differential could be anywhere from 1 to 3, in both segments. That alone will more than make up for any points that V/M gain over B/S.

 

[Anyasnake]

It's possible Canada wins gold with W/P skating a segment, but it's also possible for any of their singles and pairs to bomb, so why not use a team like V/M as a cushion if you have that luxury? Also, there's always the specter of Poje's twizzles.

Honestly, it is very unlikely, because if the teams are optimized (OAR = Aliev + Kolyada, Alina + Zhenya, T/M, B/S - CAN = Chan, Gabby + Kaetlyn, D/R + S/B, V/M), CAN and OAR are too close. Also V/M have a possibility of winning the SD, but not WeaPo (considereing how strong the Shibs SD is). In the FD they might be 2nd, if FRA does not make it but V/M can be first if so. Too many points left. But V/M stated many times they want to do both if they can anyway.

 

[Vash01]

My prediction is that Canada will win the team gold, USA silver and OAR bronze. The main reason is that OAR is strong in just one discipline. I am rooting for them to win the gold but I don't believe they will. Canada has the strongest team.

 

[Anyasnake]

My prediction is that Canada will win the team gold, USA silver and OAR bronze. The main reason is that OAR is strong in just one discipline. I am rooting for them to win the gold but I don't believe they will. Canada has the strongest team.

But OAR can be 1st in Ladies and Pairs, maybe on the podium for men, and 4th in Ice Dance. That's huge. The issue with Canada is Men but Chan might get it together for the SP (I hope because it's just gorgeous), for Pairs it could go either way (but if 2 or 3 teams are clean it's going to be tough) and for Ladies as I assume Osmond will do the SP it's okay if she des it well but maybe not enough against a clean Carolina (who might go 2nd and make CAN lose a point).
USA and pairs :/ and Ladies aren't that high ranked too. They can be 1st in Men and 3rd in Dance.
As of now I truly think it's a Russia vs Canada situation.

 

[WildRose]

Sorry wrong thread

 

[Braulio]

USA silver is delusional, sorry but they will lose any option outside bronze with just the results from pairs, the Knierims could be too way back in the short program as low as 7th and may end up even 4th in the free AT BEST

 

[Karen-W]

USA silver is delusional, sorry but they will lose any option outside bronze with just the results from pairs, the Knierims could be too way back in the short program as low as 7th and may end up even 4th in the free AT BEST

Heheh... you know, that is the same thought I had until I started analyzing the disciplines, the points from each segment, and the likely competitors from each country. Conventional wisdom says that it will be CAN & OAR in a battle for gold/silver with the USA hoping to hang onto bronze, but the reality is, most of the scenarios have OAR easily winning gold while the distance between CAN & the USA for silver/bronze is 1-2 points.

 

[Vash01]

USA silver is delusional, sorry but they will lose any option outside bronze with just the results from pairs, the Knierims could be too way back in the short program as low as 7th and may end up even 4th in the free AT BEST

IIRC in 2014 the USA placed very low in the men's SP and I assume low in pairs (because it is their weakest discipline). They still won the bronze. Now they have the number one man, and number three Ice dance team (instead of number one in Sochi). Ladies could be 4 or 5 in the SP, so they are about same as in 2014. Russia is much weaker now than in 2014. Their ice dance team is not even top 5. Same with men. Pair is only 3 or 4. That's why I think the USA can win the silver this time.

 

[Vash01]

But OAR can be 1st in Ladies and Pairs, maybe on the podium for men, and 4th in Ice Dance. That's huge. The issue with Canada is Men but Chan might get it together for the SP (I hope because it's just gorgeous), for Pairs it could go either way (but if 2 or 3 teams are clean it's going to be tough) and for Ladies as I assume Osmond will do the SP it's okay if she des it well but maybe not enough against a clean Carolina (who might go 2nd and make CAN lose a point).
USA and pairs :/ and Ladies aren't that high ranked too. They can be 1st in Men and 3rd in Dance.
As of now I truly think it's a Russia vs Canada situation.

I don't see how T&M can be first in the SP, if Sui Han and D&R are competing. Osmond is a 1-3 in ladies and Daleman is skating very well now. Ladies used to be Canada's weakness. Not anymore.

 

[Karen-W]

I don't see how T&M can be first in the SP, if Sui Han and D&R are competing. Osmond is a 1-3 in ladies and Daleman is skating very well now. Ladies used to be Canada's weakness. Not anymore.

Plus, S/M are probably going to compete in the SP for Germany. I don't know that I think D/R will necessarily beat T/M, but when you add in J/C from France in the SP, I think that 3-5 places are up in the air and, there are points to be gained that will impact the gold, silver and bronze. S-K/K could over-perform and beat the Italians, D/R and J/C could either over-perform or under-perform, etc.

 

[Vash01]

Plus, S/M are probably going to compete in the SP for Germany. I don't know that I think D/R will necessarily beat T/M, but when you add in J/C from France in the SP, I think that 3-5 places are up in the air and, there are points to be gained that will impact the gold, silver and bronze. S-K/K could over-perform and beat the Italians, D/R and J/C could either over-perform or under-perform, etc.

Are S&M going to compete in the team event?

I agree that J&C will be very competitive in the SP.