Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)

[chapis]

Why wouldn't Japan qualify for the long? France is very inconsistent in ladies (could end up 8/9th) and weak in mens. Japan could get 2nd in Ladies this time and mirror all their results from last time. That should hold off France's ice dance and pairs.

oh, I just asked in another thread about M/R competing in both segments and it was said that Japan has not an opportunity for the FD. It seems that pairs were the problem, I don´t follow pairs so close but what is the expected place for Japan?

 

[butyrskafanatic]

I think it will be Russia, Canada, U.S, Italy, and either Japan, China, or France making team finals. If I had to guess I would go with Japan though.

 

[Jayar]

Just putting this out there-- The Shibs have had the highest SD score consistently this season, and Chock and Bates have had the highest FD score. Since Hubbell and Donohue were 2nd in both sections of competition at USN, I think they may not skate in the team competition. I also think that we will see Nathan skate the short and Adam the FS. I think Bradie will skate both programs.

 

[butyrskafanatic]

Just putting this out there-- The Shibs have had the highest SD score consistently this season, and Chock and Bates have had the highest FD score. Since Hubbell and Donohue were 2nd in both sections of competition at USN, I think they may not skate in the team competition. I also think that we will see Nathan skate the short and Adam the FS. I think Bradie will skate both programs.

While the scenario you propose is possible I think it is unlikely. IMO the USFSA is currently high on Hubbell & Donohue and their narrowly being behind C&B in the FD the last 2 events was only due to levels and a mistake at the GPF, their PCS is higher. I will be surpried if Chock & Bates are used. I could even see Hubbell & Donohue or the Shibutanis (more likely H&D due to the Shibs recent FD troubles) do both programs, and that while it would surprise me would surprise me less than seeing C&B in the team event would.

Someone upthread said it has already been decided Mirai is doing the long and Bradie the short. Had I not heard that I would have guessed her to skate both programs too.

 

[Jayar]

Someone upthread said it has already been decided Mirai is doing the long and Bradie the short. Had I not heard that I would have guessed her to skate both programs too.

I don't completely buy in to this. First, the team line ups are all about strategy. Announcing strategy in advance is not something that US Figure Skating would do. If the skaters know at this point, having it leak would not be looked on very well considering the athletes aren't even allowed to share what competitions they are assigned to in the fall before US Figure Skating announces it. Second, the disciplines and skaters are ranked, and skaters are given the opportunity to choose if they skate or not. Men would likely be ranked first, with Nathan having first right of refusal. I would guess that he wants to skate the SP and the 2nd ranked guy would get to skate the FS. Then comes dance. Only if the #1 dance team chooses to skate both would they move to ladies. Otherwise the #1 ranked lady has to skate both programs. So in this scenario, I think that it means that we will see only one dance team in the event. But I am still not convinced that anything was decided by the time TSL announced (1/10).

 

[Jarrett]

If healthy, I have a feeling we are going to see Nathan in both the SP and LP. He could actually win both portions of the competition and boost USA to silver. As far as dance I think the Shibs are going to going to skate the SD and H&D the long. I don't know what the plan is for ladies. While it would be nice for Mirai to skate (she really wants too), I could see USFSA putting Bradie in both because of her consistency even though, Mirai hitting her program in either segment would score higher than Bradie hitting hers.

 

[butyrskafanatic]

Men would likely be ranked first, with Nathan having first right of refusal.

And he might have already stated he wants to do both. It wouldnt surprise me. It might not seem the smartest thing but given his personality I wouldnt be even a bit surprised.

 

[butyrskafanatic]

If healthy, I have a feeling we are going to see Nathan in both the SP and LP. He could actually win both portions of the competition and boost USA to silver. As far as dance I think the Shibs are going to going to skate the SD and H&D the long. I don't know what the plan is for ladies. While it would be nice for Mirai to skate (she really wants too), I could see USFSA putting Bradie in both because of her consistency even though, Mirai hitting her program in either segment would score higher than Bradie hitting hers.

I am pretty sure the U.S will use the max 6 skaters or teams. They have too many good skaters not to. So if you are right and they only use Chen in the mens both dance and ladies will use a 2nd team or skater. I cant see the U.S not having a 2nd team or skater in 2 out of the 3 of ladies, mens, or dance. Pairs is not an option as they dont even have a 2nd team.

 

[Debbie S]

I am fairly certain Nathan will not skate both programs, unless USFS pressures him otherwise. At this point, I suspect the U.S. will sub men and ladies, and the Shibs will skate both programs. I think if Ashley had a better season and qualified for the Olys, she might have been used in both segments, allowing dance to sub. But neither Bradie nor Mirai have been consistent and/or experienced enough in major events so I don't blame USFS for wanting to sub.

 

[Frida80]

Why wouldn't Japan qualify for the long? France is very inconsistent in ladies (could end up 8/9th) and weak in mens. Japan could get 2nd in Ladies this time and mirror all their results from last time. That should hold off France's ice dance and pairs.

Italy a quite strong in ladies. Good in pairs and dance. And their men weren't too bad at Europeans. They're likely to go to the finals.

 

[Jarrett]

Italy a quite strong in ladies. Good in pairs and dance. And their men weren't too bad at Europeans. They're likely to go to the finals.

I understand but I never said Italy was not likely to make it.

 

[Frida80]

I understand but I never said Italy was not likely to make it.

And China will be strong too. Their ladies aren't great, but their pairs and men's are strong. They'll likely go to the finals as well.

 

[Jarrett]

It is possible but the only reason I posted at all was the poster said Japan probably won't make the long which I don't think anyone can really say with any evidence.

 

[butyrskafanatic]

I am fairly certain Nathan will not skate both programs, unless USFS pressures him otherwise. At this point, I suspect the U.S. will sub men and ladies, and the Shibs will skate both programs. I think if Ashley had a better season and qualified for the Olys, she might have been used in both segments, allowing dance to sub. But neither Bradie nor Mirai have been consistent and/or experienced enough in major events so I don't blame USFS for wanting to sub.

I would be fairly surprised if the Shibutanis skate the FD given their recent problems in that phase. We will see though.

 

[butyrskafanatic]

It is possible but the only reason I posted at all was the poster said Japan probably won't make the long which I don't think anyone can really say with any evidence.

Agreed, Japan has atleast a 50% shot to make the final round IMO.

 

[VGThuy]

The Shibs have the highest FD score internationally this season, but they have had two outings where they had trouble executing so it is a risk there. However, we know they’re capable of 115+ in the FD (they have done it twice career wise)...at least they are if the judges haven’t dumped them. Chock/Bates has come out on top in the FD two comps in a row, so they may be seen as a safer bet. H/D is also being seen as rising too so who knows?

 

[skatingguy]

May be this was mentioned somewhere in this thread, but what is the deadline for submitting names for the Team competition?

As far as I can tell it's the day before the short programs when they have the Team Leaders meeting. So Men & Pairs Feb. 8 and Dance & Ladies Feb. 10.

 

[Dobre]

Just putting this out there-- The Shibs have had the highest SD score consistently this season, and Chock and Bates have had the highest FD score. Since Hubbell and Donohue were 2nd in both sections of competition at USN, I think they may not skate in the team competition. I also think that we will see Nathan skate the short and Adam the FS. I think Bradie will skate both programs.

The Shibs have the highest FD score of the U.S. teams this season.

Edit: Sorry. Missed VietgrlTerifa's post.

 

[skatingguy]

If we use the results of 2017 World Championships to predict the Team Event this would be the standings:
Short Program
1. Canada 35
2. OAR 30
3. USA 29
4. China 26
5. Italy 20 (Wins tie-break 14-13)
6. France 20
7. Japan 19
8. Germany 16
9. Israel 14
10. Korea 11

Final Results
1. Canada 70
2. OAR 65
3. USA 59
4. China 58
5. Italy 48

 

[Coco]

Thanks for merging the threads!

 

[Dobre]

Japan is likely to earn at least three more points in dance than they would have with last year's Worlds results. Muramoto & Reed have been scoring consistently higher than the Chinese & Korean dance teams this season. And Israel no longer has a competitive dance team. M&R have defeated the Germans head-to-head this season as well. So four more points in dance is quite doable.

 

[Marco]

This whole thing gives me a headache. Are they still using that ridiculous scoring where the short becomes more important than the long?

 

[skatingguy]

This whole thing gives me a headache. Are they still using that ridiculous scoring where the short becomes more important than the long?

Yes

 

[Braulio]

This whole thing gives me a headache. Are they still using that ridiculous scoring where the short becomes more important than the long?

What do you mean? the scoring for the team competition at the Olympics is 10 points for 1st, 9 second, 8 third and so on for the 10 teams in the short program, and then at the free skate is 10,9,8,7,6 with just 5 making the free

 

[skatingguy]

This whole thing gives me a headache. Are they still using that ridiculous scoring where the short becomes more important than the long?

What do you mean? the scoring for the team competition at the Olympics is 10 points for 1st, 9 second, 8 third and so on for the 10 teams in the short program, and then at the free skate is 10,9,8,7,6 with just 5 making the free

Because of the point spread in the short program it becomes more important to the final result then the free skates. In the short program you can gain 9 points on a rival team, whereas in the free skate you can only gain 4 points.

 

[butyrskafanatic]

Because of the point spread in the short program it becomes more important to the final result then the free skates. In the short program you can gain 9 points on a rival team, whereas in the free skate you can only gain 4 points.

Granted none of the teams who are likely to medal (Russia, U.S, Canada) should be giving up more than 4 points in any event in either program.

 

[Madhatter]

I dont think he cares that much either way, and you could say the same for Uno. Japan is extremely unlikely to medal in the Team Event as you acknowledge saying they arent even likely to make finals, and obviously if they dont qualify for the LP they didnt medal ayway, so I dont think it is a huge deal. The individual is the bigger focus for both guys, I dont think either would want to do 2 programs even if they make the 2nd.

I picked Uno for the short since that has been his better program this year and there isnt much to go by on Hanyu, but I dont know. It could be the other way around, but I am sure they wont plan on either doing both even if they make finals.

Actually, I think Hanyu personally might care. He's been out of competition for so long that he might even want to do both programs, especially the long, give it a test in front of audience and judges under almost full pressure.

 

[butyrskafanatic]

Actually, I think Hanyu personally might care. He's been out of competition for so long that he might even want to do both programs, especially the long, give it a test in front of audience and judges under almost full pressure.

Interesting. Do you think Japan would omit Uno from the team event altogether if Hanyu asks to do both.

 

[coppertop1]

I see that Israel has a woman for the Team only.

 

[butyrskafanatic]

If we use the results of 2017 World Championships to predict the Team Event this would be the standings:
Short Program
1. Canada 35
2. OAR 30
3. USA 29
4. China 26
5. Italy 20 (Wins tie-break 14-13)
6. France 20
7. Japan 19
8. Germany 16
9. Israel 14
10. Korea 11

Final Results
1. Canada 70
2. OAR 65
3. USA 59
4. China 58
5. Italy 48

Interesting. Looks like Canada is the favorite, but my hunch is telling me it might be Russia again anyway. China is really a contender for the bronze atleast it looks like, didnt realize that at all.

And looks like Italy, Japan, France and probably all in a tight fight to make the finals although China might not be totally safe either.