Missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370

How can a plane disapear out of thin air ?
Are they trying to do Lost in real time ?
 
MarieM said:
How can a plane disapear out of thin air ?
Are they trying to do Lost in real time ?
Click to expand...

I said to Mr. Fridge Break earlier this morning that this sounds a lot like the Oceanic flight 815... scary that this has just disappeared without a trace.
 
MarieM said:
How can a plane disapear out of thin air ?
Are they trying to do Lost in real time ?
Click to expand...
Aviation-Safety.net tweeted earlier that it's not unprecedented for a plane to vanish, crash, and not be found for some time afterward. Obviously Malaysia Airlines is a much better and more reputable carrier than AdamAir was, but maybe these cases will prove similar? Both planes were flying in southeast Asia and at the same altitude when they disappeared.
 
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*Jen* said:
Zippy can you give an example of when somebody waited to long to claim something so big?

I can't. It doesn't sit right with terrorism. It's normally claimed within 24 hours to achieve maximum impact and destruction. No one feels particularly terrorised when they think there is every chance it could be an accident!!... At this stage I feel like terrorism is increasingly unlikely. It still can't be ruled out, but if it had been claimed there would be a huge impact on air travel right now, as well as immense fear. Groups don't wait to claim - it lessens the impact.
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When I wrote that I had the Lockerbie bombing and the foiled Bojinka plot in mind, although maybe neither is a great example. I was thinking Lockerbie because the Libyans who are now accepted as having done it never made a claim, although many groups did make false claims of responsibility. But that may not be the best example as there still seems to be some doubt over who did it. In the Bojinka plot (where it was planned to blow up several airliners over the Pacific), the plan was to not announce that they had done it and let the governments try to piece it together. Not a great example either, since it never happened thankfully. But there are many smaller terrorist attacks that go unclaimed indefinitely, and bigger ones that are eventually claimed but not necessarily in a 24-hour window. Actually, it's common that they're claimed later than that. That recent Volgograd bombing was claimed about a month later, for instance. And then there's the issue of false claims which clouds it all further.

Terrorism doesn't always have a singular purpose - for some, they might want to claim it right away if the motive was to make some demand known or to assert power. If the goal is to hurt the airline industry by making people afraid to fly, they might let the doubt linger whether an accident or terrorism was behind it (both are pretty scary, honestly). Or maybe the goal is to distract the world's attention away from something else (Ukraine crisis?). A more frightening reason why it may not be claimed is if it was a test run for a bigger plot. The Bojinka plot is a good example of this case - they tested their bombs around Manila and on a Philippines Air flight and of course didn't announce their role in it.

*Jen* said:
True, but it's not entirely the same thing. 9/11 was clearly terror. Without anyone claiming this, it seems like an accident, which kind of defeats the purpose of terrorism.
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I would actually think that the uncertainty in this case would make groups less likely to claim responsibility for the moment, because it can't really be taken seriously until there's evidence that terrorism occurred. Too many false claims in the past (such as Al Qaeda claiming the American Airlines crash in Nov. 2001 and the 2003 Northeast blackout even though both were determined to be accidental). It's also worth considering that not all claims are made public, especially not immediately. I actually saw somewhere a Chinese terror group is supposedly claiming responsibility now, but its credibility is considered doubtful, for instance.

Anyway, this is a wordy way of saying the lack of a claim doesn't necessarily rule out terrorism, and if a claim was made, that wouldn't rule it "in", either, until there's some evidence confirming that.
 
It sounds like a dumb question, but is there the remotest possibility that the plane has landed (probably by force) somewhere intact? I would think that an aircraft of this size could only safely land on a runway in an airport or an airfield or something like that, and if that's what has happened, the authorities would be aware of it by now. Or could the plane have landed on some remote swathe of land, so remote that all communication and attempts at signaling would be impossible?

I guess that I'm just hoping against hope that everyone on board is safe somewhere, and that it's just really hard for the rest of the world to be aware of it right now.
 
I had a similar question. How far can a radar station track a plane? Maybe it was hijacked and the pilots were forced to make a U-turn and then fly "under the radar" to some undisclosed destination.
 
I still don't think it's terrorism. This group who has allegedly claimed responsibility don't seem credible because it seems like an afterthought, like "oh hey, people think there's a chance this might be terrorism so let's advance our cause and say it was us", which I think is your point Zippy? I agree with that.

The problem is those other instances where no group claimed it for a while, if ever, were clearly terror. This isn't clear at all! If it were terror, whoever was behind it would have some evidence of it, and they'd be able to credibly claim it or to point out that it is terror.

As things stand, it's estimated that on average, at least one person travels on a stolen passport on every flight in Asia. It's not surprising there were 4-5 of them on one flight booked on consecutive tickets - smuggling is just one criminal activity that operates that way.

Secondly, the terrorists on the hijacked flights on 9/11 were travelling on their own passports. If they knew they were about to die for a cause, why conceal their identity? It's more likely that the stolen passports were to conceal identity because those people were engaged in ongoing criminal activity.

Don't forget that people thought Air France could be terror, and it turned out to be catastrophic pilot error. It also took 2 years to recover the black box in that case.

If the plane did turn around before it went off radar, it's safe to say that it went off course. They may not have found any wreckage because they're not looking in the right place.

I'll be highly skeptical of any group who claims responsibility for this. If they were behind it, they'd have proof to prove it now why there is uncertainty. Maximum impact is now, or more specifically 3 days ago when claiming it will have meant mass cancelation of international flights. By now, no one would be that surprised if it is terror or an accident and so the maximum impact of it has gone.
 
mrinalini said:
It sounds like a dumb question, but is there the remotest possibility that the plane has landed (probably by force) somewhere intact? I would think that an aircraft of this size could only safely land on a runway in an airport or an airfield or something like that, and if that's what has happened, the authorities would be aware of it by now. Or could the plane have landed on some remote swathe of land, so remote that all communication and attempts at signaling would be impossible?

I guess that I'm just hoping against hope that everyone on board is safe somewhere, and that it's just really hard for the rest of the world to be aware of it right now.
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No. It would have shown up on radar.

If it went into the sea more or less in one piece it would have sunk by now...making it much more difficult to find. The most important piece of debris they need to find are the black boxes, before their battery runs out.
 
From what I've been reading, the experts say that something drastic and fast must have occurred, not giving the pilots time to send a distress signal, which means an explosion or another event leading to a midair disintegration. This of course assumes that the pilots were not suicidal. In most other scenarios, there would have been sufficient time to send a distress call. In similar situations it took weeks if not months to find evidence of the wreckage.
 
*Jen* said:
As things stand, it's estimated that on average, at least one person travels on a stolen passport on every flight in Asia. It's not surprising there were 4-5 of them on one flight booked on consecutive tickets - smuggling is just one criminal activity that operates that way.
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Where do you get this from? Link please.
 
mrinalini said:
It sounds like a dumb question, but is there the remotest possibility that the plane has landed (probably by force) somewhere intact? I would think that an aircraft of this size could only safely land on a runway in an airport or an airfield or something like that, and if that's what has happened, the authorities would be aware of it by now. Or could the plane have landed on some remote swathe of land, so remote that all communication and attempts at signaling would be impossible?

I guess that I'm just hoping against hope that everyone on board is safe somewhere, and that it's just really hard for the rest of the world to be aware of it right now.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's a dumb question. I think it's hopeful. This news story was just on at my Mom's place and when it ended, I asked her, "is it naïve for me to hope that the plane was hijacked and it landed somewhere remote and everyone is still alive"?
 
That would be a miracle but is there a way to turn off ALL tracking devices on a plane? I would think that it is impossible to do that and the planes are created like that on purpose. Besides, why hijack a plane and kidnap all people on board only to keep it a secret all this time. They would want something by now.
 
*Jen* said:
...As things stand, it's estimated that on average, at least one person travels on a stolen passport on every flight in Asia. It's not surprising there were 4-5 of them on one flight booked on consecutive tickets - smuggling is just one criminal activity that operates that way...
Click to expand...

DAngel said:
Where do you get this from? Link please.
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Very interesting piece on the Australian show 7.30 Report last night (here is the link - don't know if it's geoblocked: http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/

An aviation lawyer, Mary Schiavo, stated travelling on stolen/fake passports was not an uncommon occurrence. She gave an example of an Air India crash in 2010 where authorities have determined that between ten and 13 (authorities still to determine final numbers) passengers of the 158 on board were travelling on stolen/fake passports!
 
As far as I know you can turn off a transponder but a plane can't disappear from radar at 35,000 ft unless something really catastrophic happens to the structure. Even if it is hijacked. Flights that plunged into the ocean, and that's as rapid a descent as you can think of, were still visible on radar at least some of the way down (e.g. EgyptAir 990).
 
OwenEvans said:
Very interesting piece on the Australian show 7.30 Report last night (here is the link - don't know if it's geoblocked: http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/

An aviation lawyer, Mary Schiavo, stated travelling on stolen/fake passports was not an uncommon occurrence. She gave an example of an Air India crash in 2010 where authorities have determined that between ten and 13 (authorities still to determine final numbers) passengers of the 158 on board were travelling on stolen/fake passports!
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Thank you for that link. It was not Geo-blocked :)

I'm still not sure where the "on average, at least one person travels on a stolen passport on every flight in Asia" comes from though. That sounds like a huge number... Thousands of people everyday travelling on fake/stolen passports...
 
PeterG said:
I don't think that's a dumb question. I think it's hopeful. This news story was just on at my Mom's place and when it ended, I asked her, "is it naïve for me to hope that the plane was hijacked and it landed somewhere remote and everyone is still alive"?
Click to expand...

If it had been hijacked, there would have been a ransom demand by now. I'd be 99% sure at this stage that all the people on board are dead. Just hope they find some wreckage of the plane to give the families of the victims some sort of closure.
 
DAngel said:
Thank you for that link. It was not Geo-blocked :)

I'm still not sure where the "on average, at least one person travels on a stolen passport on every flight in Asia" comes from though. That sounds like a huge number... Thousands of people everyday travelling on fake/stolen passports...
Click to expand...

It came from a news report on the same channel as that show...but since you put it that way, I don't think it can be right either! Perhaps it was every international, long haul flight through Asia. That would put it at dozens rather than thousands, which seems more likely.

allezfred said:
If it had been hijacked, there would have been a ransom demand by now. I'd be 99% sure at this stage that all the people on board are dead. Just hope they find some wreckage of the plane to give the families of the victims some sort of closure.
Click to expand...

I agree :( There was no distress signal from the Air France crash in 2010 either, and when they finally found the black box they realised that there was catastrophic error from disoriented pilots who didn't realise until too late that they were going down. That crash was in the middle of the night in bad weather. This disappearance was also in the middle of the night, but there's been no talk of bad weather.

The problem with every scenario is that there's something about it that doesn't make sense.

1 - Terror. Could be, but since it could be written off as an accident which defeats the purpose, why not claim it? They'd have to be comfortingly dumb terrorists.
2 - Mid-air disintegration - explains the lack of distress call but not the lack of wreckage. They're more likely to find it if it disintegrated because there'd be little bits over a wide area.
3 - Crash into the sea whole - lack of distress call or evidence of a plane in the ocean
4 - Intentional ditching by the pilots into the sea...not unheard of but still...where is the plane?!!! They would have found some wreckage by now!

In other news, media is now claiming that two people on fake passports were Iranians heading to Europe for a new life. Granted this was on news.com.au which I trust about as much as the Daily Mail, but it's plausible. If true, their only crime was fleeing persecution. Terribly sad way for things to end, if so.

I really hope they find out something soon. I knew someone who died in a very similar accident, and while a body was never found, enough wreckage was recovered for his family to be in no doubt as to what happened. Not knowing must be making an already horrible situation so much worse for those people :(
 
I thought I had read that a mid air disintegration meant the plane would be a lot harder to find. I know that in my mind it seems it would be easier because surely some larger pieces would remain and they would be spread out over a large area. I would think that the plane staying mostly intact and then sinking would make it very difficult to find as that would be a very small area to narrow down and then it could be very far under water.
 
The BBC is reporting that military radar suggests the plane turned west, away from its flight plan, before it disappeared. This widens the area they need to search in.
 
mrinalini said:
It sounds like a dumb question, but is there the remotest possibility that the plane has landed (probably by force) somewhere intact? I would think that an aircraft of this size could only safely land on a runway in an airport or an airfield or something like that, and if that's what has happened, the authorities would be aware of it by now. Or could the plane have landed on some remote swathe of land, so remote that all communication and attempts at signaling would be impossible?

I guess that I'm just hoping against hope that everyone on board is safe somewhere, and that it's just really hard for the rest of the world to be aware of it right now.
Click to expand...

I remember having similar thoughts after the Challenger disaster, even though we all saw the thing blow up. (Well, I was only ten . . . ) It's hard not to feel a little bit of stubborn, irrational hope before you find out what happened.
 
That makes sense as a reason to steal a passport :( It's really sad that there is almost no legal way for most people to seek asylum anymore. Airlines will not transport people seeking asylum because they are liable for costs of returning them to their country if it is not granted; so to fly, you pretty much have to break the law. I actually just read an article about that: http://hasbrouck.org/blog/archives/002111.html
 
Honestly, based on the photos of the two men who were traveling on fake passports, I think that they were gay and fleeing to be able to live safe lives. Just my two cents.

I do hope that terrorism was not a factor. It really doesn't make sense to me. What would the purpose be? Normally acts of terrorism are to make a point about something. There seems to be the lack of a point in this case.
 
According to the CNN news flash I just got, the last contact with the plane actually had it going in the opposite direction of its destination and on the other side of the Malay peninsula: hundreds of miles from where they were conducting the original search. There is something very strange going on the Malay government's release of information. This was commented on by one of the investigative reporters on GMA this morning that they aren't being very forthcoming about information which is raising a lot of additional questions.
 
I was hoping that Patrick Smith of Ask the Pilot would post something about this story, and as always he's worth reading. He mentions reports that the plane was tracked for 500 miles after the transponder was turned off, and not in the direction it was supposed to be going in, and notes that if this is true:
I hate to say it, and to violate my own anti-speculation rule, but it’s looking more and more like something very strange, and possibly nefarious, is behind the disappearance. A hijacking, perhaps, that ultimately ended in disaster somewhere in the South China Sea.
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Maybe this will end up being a case of moronic hijackers like the ones on Ethiopian 961. That flight famously ended up in the water off the coast of Grande Comore, though I doubt Malaysia 370 managed anything similar.
 
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