Mao Asada in 2006

[Triple loop]

Do you think Mao Asada would have won the Olympic gold medal in 2006 if she was age eligible? I believe she would have because she had already defeated Slutskaya, Arakawa, and Cohen previously.

 

[MR-FAN]

She also lost nationals to Fumie and Junior Worlds to Yu-Na, so who knows

 

[Finsta]

Yes.

 

[Eeyora1]

Who knows? What if they let both she and Yuna compete?

 

[Marco]

Yeah well if Mao could compete, could Yuna? If Yuna could, perhaps she would do the senior GP circuit that season and who knows what would happen. Yuna was more consistent in 2006 than she was in 2007.

And if they were both age eligible for Turin, who knows what would happen to their mental state for the entire 2006 season. Mao competed in 2006 and won GPF knowing she wouldn't have to compete in Turin. Her mentality might be quite different if she knew she could and had something to prove as a freshman. In 2007 when they first competed at senior Worlds, they made mistakes allowing Miki to win.

Same for the hypothetical of the Olympics not skipping 2 years after 1992. Fun to speculate, but the pressure of the Olympics can really make things unpredictable. Just because Kwan won Worlds in 1996 and 2000 as non-Olympic years doesn't necessarily mean she would win the Olympics or even the same Worlds in an Olympic year.

 

[Miki89]

I think she had a great chance to win the gold. The Olympics would technically still fall into the 2005-2006 season and Mao's best skates that season were hard to beat. Mao also used riskier, more experimental layouts at Junior Worlds that season because she wasn't so motivated about the event given that she competed and won at the senior level in the fall. Sure, anything could happen at the Olympics, and we don't know how she would have dealt with the pressure. However, she had stated that she always wanted a long skating career and would have continued for another cycle. So, if she were eligible, it would have been her first try and early in her career. I think the pressure would actually be more manageable than later on in her career. The trend towards rising stars winning at the Olympics seem to confirm that theory.
Regardless, it would have been wonderful to see Mao and a healthy Michelle compete in 2006.

 

[UGG]

Mao was competing her first season as a senior, knowing she could not go to the Olympics or Worlds. It’s just very hard to say. Zero Olympic expectations vs Olympic gold medal contender expectations are very different.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

The 2006 Grand Prix Series was jam-packed with potential Olympic medal winners.

At one point after doing so well at Skate America one week and Skate Canada the next, Paul Martini thought that Alissa Cziszy was an outside shot at the bronze in Torino.

Sad to think that nerves combined with her iffy technique, the skater wasn't even close to making the US Team.

 

[vanillashake]

I believe if Mao, Yu Na, a healthy Michelle had all competed, and Irina, Kostner, and Ando all still skated as poorly as they did, then the final results would have gone:

Gold- Asada
Silver- Arakawa
Bronze- Kim (thanks only to Slutskaya and to a lesser degree Cohen bombing only as she wasnt soup yet)
4th- Cohen
5th- Slutskaya
6th- Suguri or Kwan (I see them around on par with each other like 2005 worlds)
8th- Rochette

Then again I could see Slutskaya being held up and overscored now on purpose just to make sure she medals even with a bad skate so maybe:

Gold- Asada
Silver- Arakawa
Bronze- Slutskaya

 

[vanillashake]

Yeah well if Mao could compete, could Yuna? If Yuna could, perhaps she would do the senior GP circuit that season and who knows what would happen. Yuna was more consistent in 2006 than she was in 2007.

And if they were both age eligible for Turin, who knows what would happen to their mental state for the entire 2006 season. Mao competed in 2006 and won GPF knowing she wouldn't have to compete in Turin. Her mentality might be quite different if she knew she could and had something to prove as a freshman. In 2007 when they first competed at senior Worlds, they made mistakes allowing Miki to win.

Same for the hypothetical of the Olympics not skipping 2 years after 1992. Fun to speculate, but the pressure of the Olympics can really make things unpredictable. Just because Kwan won Worlds in 1996 and 2000 as non-Olympic years doesn't necessarily mean she would win the Olympics or even the same Worlds in an Olympic year.

Yu Na could medal if others made big mistakes, which happened so if it was a similar splatty sort of competition she had a shot of atleast a bronze with a great skate. No shot to win. She would basically be in the exact same position (needing mistakes by others and clean skates to even medal, and cant win) as an old Kwan would be in for this Games. She was technically competitive with anyone already, but did not have the PCS yet. Look at Skate Canada 2006 where even Rochette and Suguri destroyed her on PCS, even though her skating had probably improved since winter 2006.

It was not comparable to Mao who had been hyped since fall 2004 so was way more known, and probably was a stronger and more mature skater at that point even though both were already great jumpers. By early 2007 she had already caught up to and was about equal with Mao, but would not be there either skating or reputation wise for February 2006, not to mention all the other older champions who were near their peak like Arakwawa, Cohen, Slutskaya. Her win over Mao at World Juniors was with Mao making mistakes I think, and she was the 2nd best junior so would be taken way more seriously by judges than in a Senior stacked field with legends like Slutskaya and (if she skated) Kwan, longtime contenders and stars Cohen and Arakawa, other vets like Kostner, Rochette, Suguri, and much more established fellow young phenom Asada.

 

[Miki89]

In these hypothetical situations, it is best to look at scoring potentials. Mao had the highest scoring potential leading up to the 2006 Olympics. At the time, it would be difficult for any skater to beat her if she were or close to her best, which was what happened at 2005 GPF. 2006 junior worlds was a more of fluke in Mao's case because she was going for two 3As in the long program and made many mistakes as a result. If she were going to the Olympics, she would most likely have chosen her fall layout.

I believe the judges were keen to give Slutskaya the OGM if she skated well. Cohen would probably have won in PCS but she was unlikely to ever skate a clean long program. As a former World Champion, Arakawa also had a good chance, especially if those two made mistakes, which was what actually happened. Mao and Yuna, if eligible, would be considered rising stars. Of the two, Mao had a greater chance based on higher scoring potential and greater recognition at the time. Even with relatively strong skates, Irina could not beat Mao with a 3-3 and a 3A.

 

[vanillashake]

In these hypothetical situations, it is best to look at scoring potentials. Mao had the highest scoring potential leading up to the 2006 Olympics. At the time, it would be difficult for any skater to beat her if she were or close to her best, which was what happened at 2005 GPF. 2006 junior worlds was a more of fluke in Mao's case because she was going for two 3As in the long program and made many mistakes as a result. If she were going to the Olympics, she would most likely have chosen her fall layout.

I believe the judges were keen to give Slutskaya the OGM if she skated well. Cohen would probably have won in PCS but she was unlikely to ever skate a clean long program. As a former World Champion, Arakawa also had a good chance, especially if those two made mistakes, which was what actually happened. Mao and Yuna, if eligible, would be considered rising stars. Of the two, Mao had a greater chance based on higher scoring potential and greater recognition at the time. Even with relatively strong skates, Irina could not beat Mao with a 3-3 and a 3A.

I agree on all of that, and I dont see Slutskaya now skating better than she actually did at the Games which was quite badly in the long program, in a new alterior universe Mao is there. Cohen as usual could not skate a clean long program. And Arakawa did not try any 3-3s and only did 5 triples. So while Mao would have had a great shot regardless, these others likely were making things that much easier for her based on what we saw. The only change I could possibly see is Arakawa trying a lot more jump content if Mao was there, but I doubt that, she didnt bother with Irina yet to skate at the Games, and a reason she stopped doing the 3-3s is they were being called for underrotation starting in early 2005. There is no way she could know 5 triples was enough to beat Slutskaya later.

I do wonder how much the GPF loss shook Slutskaya up since she did not seem the same after that. Although the altitude in Turin, with her illness, probably had an impact too.

 

[TheIronLady]

Do you think Mao Asada would have won the Olympic gold medal in 2006 if she was age eligible? I believe she would have because she had already defeated Slutskaya, Arakawa, and Cohen previously.

I think it's clear Mao would have medaled. It was unjust that she missed the cutoff by months. They allowed doping Russian 15 year olds in later years with birthdays on the better side of 6 months of the games, but a bonafide champion was denied a chance to shine.

 

[miffy]

I think she would have won if she was clean because the others didn’t skate their best. Who would have been left off the team for Japan if that happened - IIRC there was some controversy that Miki made it?

 

[VGThuy]

I think she would have won if she was clean because the others didn’t skate their best. Who would have been left off the team for Japan if that happened - IIRC there was some controversy that Miki made it?

Miki definitely would have been left off. Not sure if the Ando/Nakano Olympics/World split would have happened. Don’t know if Mao would go to worlds if she won. Don’t know if Arakawa would still skip if she didn’t win, etc.

If Mao was age-eligible then Yuna would be too, so who knows if Yuna would have make her senior debut in 2005-06 instead of the following season.

 

[Tak]

The JSF Merit System to choose Olympic Participant in 2006 accounted for 04-05 Results as well as 05-06 Results.
Miki Ando was in clear 1st place because she had good 04-05 season (IIRC she could have been 7th at 06 Nationals and she would still have made it), Fumie was behind Mao, and then Shizuka (04-05 Season was a washout for her) squeaked through. Three 06 Olympic berths were earned by Miki and Fumie at 05 Worlds.
If Mao competed, Shizuka would have watched 06 Olympics on her TV.

 

[VGThuy]

The JSF Merit System to choose Olympic Participant in 2006 accounted for 04-05 Results as well as 05-06 Results.
Miki Ando was in clear 1st place because she had good 04-05 season (IIRC she could have been 7th at 06 Nationals and she would still have made it), Fumie was behind Mao, and Shizuka (04-05 Season was a washout for her) squeaked through. Three 06 Olympic berths were earned by Miki and Fumie at 05 Worlds.
If Mao competed, Shizuka would have watched 06 Olympics on her TV.

That's interesting. I always thought Miki was last because Shizuka and Fumie both named on the Olympics and World team while Miki was only named to the Olympic team and Nakano got her spot for the Worlds team. I didn't realize there were two separate selections for the Olympics and Worlds.

Further, when they changed the selection for 2009-10, would the JSF merit system that they had for the 2006 Olympics have helped Nakano much to Suzuki's detriment? It feels like Nakano was on the wrong side of the selection for both 2006 and 2010 even though her situations were sort of reversed.

 

[On My Own]

Maybe bronze. Back then, I think since the judges were fresh off 6.0, and Mao was still presenting her skating like a junior-skater would, she'd have been dinged hard placed next to Arakawa and Cohen on PCS. She could have beaten Slutskaya if she'd landed all jumps, but who knows with Russian machine.