Is there any skater who you think is likely to sweep the upcoming quad

Love them or hate them, the Olympics are what the top athletes strive for. World championships are important, but the Olympics are considered The peak of an athletic career.

Yeah, the Olympics seems to be the most important for a lot of them. Yuzuru himself said that if it wasn't for the Olympics he wouldn't have skated since he's not even fully recovered. And he has all but said he'll withdraw from worlds to let his injury heal more. And if healthy he could probably breeze through it with only a Sal and Toe like at the Olys. Javi could have tried for his 3rd title as well, but isn't going to bother. So yeah, priorities...
 
Trusova for sure... Good Lord....

Its like Radionova was on scene then overshadowed. Sotskova done. Pogo done. Medev - gurl, bye. Zag - nice knowing you. lol

Trusova... just wow.....

I need a drink.. Its 1 pm somewhere....

I don't know about that. Remember that Eliza Tuck, Elena Radionova, and Anna P were supposed to dominate in the last quad. They all had a level of success, but not one even made it to Russia's Olympic team. A lot can happen to 13- and 14 -year-old girls in four years, including being surpassed by their own team mates.
 
Good thing Zag got hers now. Even she said not to be wowed by she and Med, because there's more coming behind them and they're better.
 
Kaetlyn almost never skated clean her FS though. I am glad she did that well at the Olympics but still... it’s like once in a blue moon chance. Or actually it’s the skate of her life or anything near it.

As has been pointed out, she has managed to earn a World silver and Olympic bronze - not too shabby.

It's possible that Kaetlyn is just reaching her peak now. I thought her 'window of opportunity' to rise through the ranks had closed, but she proved me wrong about that.

Also, she's battled with a ton of injuries in her career. There was a puff piece on her on Canadian TV, and she spoke about being beaten down by having to keep getting back into competitive form after injuries. She reached the point where she just didn't want to do it anymore, and dreaded telling her parents that.

These two medals and being injury free (SKAIK) may have given Kaetlyn a new lease on life/skating.
 
As has been pointed out, P/C are likely to dominate this next quad. If a team doesn't rise up contend with them, it's going to be a boring four years in dance, at least for me.

S/H and T/M will at least give each other some competition and push each other to be better.
 
When Navka & Kostamarov dominated a few years there was brutal. Only saving grace was the development of my faves D&L, D&S's and the Kerr's.

If P&C stay as they are, then I will be frustrated because they are capable of so much more.
 
I am sure there will be some team who will be annointed as "the next ones" right shortly and become P/C's newest rivals.
 
The biggest issue with Stepanova/Bukin isn't their skating right now. It's whether or not they can participate in 2022, if the IOC decides to keep up with the very strict rules, to as they said "clean up the sport once and for all", they said it's going to take years. Because if Bukin isn't allowed to participate in Beijing, they might get dumped by the fed. What would be the point of investing money ?

I'm with @VIETgrlTerifa I did not see them in Bronze at this games, but maybe top 6 ? But with a strict panel their Rumba pattern might have been an issue (even though it got better), plus the technical on step sequences. But they can challenge for a top 5 at Worlds maybe. We'll have to see if Shibs and C/B go first because I have no idea.

Why would S/B not be allowed to compete in the next olympics. The 2018 situation was a special case were their country was suspended and the former French sports minister got to decide whom to select.

Russian ban has since been lifted and Russia gets to select the athletes. These skaters were not given a lifetime ban by IOC at any point, the once that were given were either exonerated or the lifetime ban lifted. So, why would these athletes be banned from 2022 olympics; unless of course Russia is banned again. I think that will not end well for IOC, which they are more than aware of.

I am not saying S/B would have won a medal at 2018 or they will be in a position to win medal 2022, but I can't see any legal basis, as things stand for IOC to ban S/B. Especially when elements within IOC are fearfully of long drawn-out lawsuits in various jurisdiction that Russians have planned against all those who are involved. They are looking for a comprise to get out of this situation.
 
Trusova for sure... Good Lord....

Its like Radionova was on scene then overshadowed. Sotskova done. Pogo done. Medev - gurl, bye. Zag - nice knowing you. lol

Trusova... just wow.....

I need a drink.. Its 1 pm somewhere....
Trusova was obviously impressive - but her body hasn't changed through puberty...she obviously has a low body weight.

To the OP's question...I don't see any current skaters who could sweep the next four years.
 
Why would S/B not be allowed to compete in the next olympics. The 2018 situation was a special case were their country was suspended and the former French sports minister got to decide whom to select.

Russian ban has since been lifted and Russia gets to select the athletes. These skaters were not given a lifetime ban by IOC at any point, the once that were given were either exonerated or the lifetime ban lifted. So, why would these athletes be banned from 2022 olympics; unless of course Russia is banned again. I think that will not end well for IOC, which they are more than aware of.

I am not saying S/B would have won a medal at 2018 or they will be in a position to win medal 2022, but I can't see any legal basis, as things stand for IOC to ban S/B. Especially when elements within IOC are fearfully of long drawn-out lawsuits in various jurisdiction that Russians have planned against all those who are involved. They are looking for a comprise to get out of this situation.
The ban is lifted so it should be okay, but the fact that Bukin was not allowed to go kind of put him in a box. If there is any suspicion against him for anything, I don't know, it's not going to play out well for him. But since that whole story was a mess, I'm hoping, if there really isn't any reason to ban him that it won't follow him through 2022. Worlds 2018 are already going to be awkward because all the commentators will be repeating that : "he was banned, don't know why".

All we can do is hoping not to have another story like this, legally speaking.
 
I think that Nathan Chen will dominate until the Olympics where another young male skater will win the Olympic title.
 
Trusova for sure... Good Lord....

Its like Radionova was on scene then overshadowed. Sotskova done. Pogo done. Medev - gurl, bye. Zag - nice knowing you. lol

Trusova... just wow.....

I need a drink.. Its 1 pm somewhere....

I am not counting on Trusova to dominate because there are other skaters that will with time have the technical content to challenge.
 
I think the odds of another V&M return are something extremely close to 0%. I wasnt even that surprised they came back this quad, post Sochi I would have given V&M and D&W both about 35-40% odds of returning at some point (which I guess makes roughly 60% 1 of the 2 would as happened). Not this time. They have a historic Olympic medal count now, they have met all their goals including regaining their Olympic and World golds, and winning the elusive GPF. They have competed at the top level over a decade. They have made the best possible case for themselves they could ever make of being the best dance team ever, or one of the best ever, and anyone who thinks they arent (which btw is a valid opinion, dont get me wrong there) wont ever at this point, nothing they could do from here would change anyones mind.

So in all there is absolutely zero reason to ever return now. Also when they returned this time people were excited to see them, and they were almost sentimental favorites of all, including even the judges, after ending their last run with a string of losses to Davis & White. If they returned again, no way, except for Canada. It would be more of a "why the heck are you back again now" kind of reaction. Lastly it took their best performances ever at an unlikely age to barely hold off the much younger French. And they are going to think they can return at a much more "too old" type age for dance and do it with the French having had years of improving. :lol: Not to mention the Shibs and all the other younger teams who might continue. They might be confident, but they arent stupid. If V&M ever return to amateur at this point I will be beyond amazed, and I think even their nuttiest ubers would agree.

If P&C are to be challenged/beaten or even denied the OGM again it wont be from V&M, that is for sure.

As for Zagitova, even if she surprises me and continues past this season at all (that would already legit surprised me as I explained why) I will be amazed if she competes all the way through the next Olympics, never mind dominates all the way through to the next Olympics. Not nearly as amazed as a V&M return mind you, but still really surprised. That isnt hating, it is based on some very clear evidence. If she even competes say another 2 seasons and retires she will already have majorly bucked a trend for female OGM winners.

Hanyu I would also be really surprised if he even tried to compete to the next Olympics (although ironically less than the much younger Zagitova just since the mens precedent is pretty different than the womens) although I could see him go another 2 years quite possibly, but not for an entire quad now that he has his 2nd OGM already imparticular.

I have to disagree with you about VM... I don't think the French team is unbeatable and they will be challenged in the next 4 years. I think the challengers could be Stepanova and Bukin and Hawayek and Baker. They are immensely talented teams that will continue to grow over the next 4 years.
 
I think the odds of another V&M return are something extremely close to 0%. I wasnt even that surprised they came back this quad, post Sochi I would have given V&M and D&W both about 35-40% odds of returning at some point (which I guess makes roughly 60% 1 of the 2 would as happened). Not this time. They have a historic Olympic medal count now, they have met all their goals including regaining their Olympic and World golds, and winning the elusive GPF. They have competed at the top level over a decade. They have made the best possible case for themselves they could ever make of being the best dance team ever, or one of the best ever, and anyone who thinks they arent (which btw is a valid opinion, dont get me wrong there) wont ever at this point, nothing they could do from here would change anyones mind.

So in all there is absolutely zero reason to ever return now. Also when they returned this time people were excited to see them, and they were almost sentimental favorites of all, including even the judges, after ending their last run with a string of losses to Davis & White. If they returned again, no way, except for Canada. It would be more of a "why the heck are you back again now" kind of reaction. Lastly it took their best performances ever at an unlikely age to barely hold off the much younger French. And they are going to think they can return at a much more "too old" type age for dance and do it with the French having had years of improving. :lol: Not to mention the Shibs and all the other younger teams who might continue. They might be confident, but they arent stupid. If V&M ever return to amateur at this point I will be beyond amazed, and I think even their nuttiest ubers would agree.

If P&C are to be challenged/beaten or even denied the OGM again it wont be from V&M, that is for sure.

As for Zagitova, even if she surprises me and continues past this season at all (that would already legit surprised me as I explained why) I will be amazed if she competes all the way through the next Olympics, never mind dominates all the way through to the next Olympics. Not nearly as amazed as a V&M return mind you, but still really surprised. That isnt hating, it is based on some very clear evidence. If she even competes say another 2 seasons and retires she will already have majorly bucked a trend for female OGM winners.

Hanyu I would also be really surprised if he even tried to compete to the next Olympics (although ironically less than the much younger Zagitova just since the mens precedent is pretty different than the womens) although I could see him go another 2 years quite possibly, but not for an entire quad now that he has his 2nd OGM already imparticular.
 
Regarding Nathan's tech advantage, I spent way too long reading through the lists of high scores on Wikipedia yesterday and was surprised by this: While Nathan has the highest TES for the free, it's only 1.52 above Hanyu's PB, whereas Hanyu has 4.59 over Nathan in the short TES (as well as higher components).

If you just look at Nathan and Shoma, Nathan has a 5.18 lead on TES, Shoma an edge of 4.14 on PCS.
 
Regarding Nathan's tech advantage, I spent way too long reading through the lists of high scores on Wikipedia yesterday and was surprised by this: While Nathan has the highest TES for the free, it's only 1.52 above Hanyu's PB, whereas Hanyu has 4.59 over Nathan in the short TES (as well as higher components).

If you just look at Nathan and Shoma, Nathan has a 5.18 lead on TES, Shoma an edge of 4.14 on PCS.
Nathan's best scores with 8 quads + generous judging are still below Hanyu's 3 best total scores which
* With 6 quads total but one invalid combo (WC 2017)
* With 5 quads total (NHK 2015 + GPF 2015)

4 more years... with new rules, and with the quads crazy... if Nathan does not lower his BV, he might have to attempt on average 40-48 quads per season, 4 seasons = 150-170 quads in 4 years. Then we multiply that number to 10 times in practice (because of course, skaters need to practice) = 1500-1700 quad attempts in 4 years.

Scary thought...
 
I am sure there will be some team who will be annointed as "the next ones" right shortly and become P/C's newest rivals.

I’m not. Ponamerenko has the pedigree but not the right coach or partner. There are some good Russian and American junior teams but none that I see moving into P/C’s league that fast.

Of the current senior teams, as much as I love H/D I don’t see them as a serious challenge, nor the Shibs if they continue. I would love for another fireball team to appear but don’t see one on the horizon.

Men, ladies and pairs, though, are a crapshoot.
 
The problem with Stepanova & Bukin is she is not a strong enough skater IMO. He is one of the best (although even he has a hard time living up to the amazing Cizeron), but she would need to vastly improve for them to be a challenger for gold. They have the look and the unique style potentially though, particularly with Russian politics. They also have good chemistry between them.

I have noticed a big improvement with Alexandra's' skating this season. I think they have time to grow and develop her skating skills.
 
Regarding Nathan's tech advantage, I spent way too long reading through the lists of high scores on Wikipedia yesterday and was surprised by this: While Nathan has the highest TES for the free, it's only 1.52 above Hanyu's PB, whereas Hanyu has 4.59 over Nathan in the short TES (as well as higher components).

If you just look at Nathan and Shoma, Nathan has a 5.18 lead on TES, Shoma an edge of 4.14 on PCS.

And it's important to note that even with six quads, Nathan is only 1.5 over Hanyu's best TES that he got with only four quads.
 
I think in dance judges make decisions about who will rise to the top and after a while of showering them with high TES, PCS etc everyone just starts to accept them as champions. It's why at this point it's hard to imagine a team challenging P/C, but no doubt it will happen.

A key factor is to have a good program next season people can get behind. I think doing something different will be an advantage because people will accept it as the new fashion which will compensate for it not necessarily being superior to what is presently in the lead. The leader can then be written off as 'old, outdated, tired etc'. If you're a challenger, I think it does not help to be dominant right after the Olympics because you'll be replaced before the end of the quad to keep interest. The Shibs started rising at the end of the 2016 season (right off the back of people saying they had no prospects, were finished etc etc) and that's fairly good timing - but they only just held off a team rising at the end of the 2017 season. So I think 2020/2021 is a good time to start peaking (or getting in favour).

It's hard to say what impact the new rule changes will have in ice dance. But you can see the judges clearly moving the goal posts (how it will be interpreted in practice I don't know). You can tell they have something in mind about what they want to hold up.
 
I have noticed a big improvement with Alexandra's' skating this season. I think they have time to grow and develop her skating skills.
But s/b got no level 4 step sequence because of her. Z/g even got a level 4 step sequence. Z/g beat s/b in TES.
 
There was speculation that Zag doesn't really enjoy skating
I haven't heard this but TAT, Rafael and now Oleg Vasiliev have all said she's hit a growth spurt since the Olympics. So it appears to be a matter of whether or not she keeps her jumps. We will see in the fall.
 

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