Hurricane Jose

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While Irma churns her way to the US mainland, some attention must be given to Hurricane Jose as this storm may be a killer in its own right.

Right now the path of Jose takes in through the northeast Caribbean Islands that have just been racked by Irma's 175-200 mph winds. Barbuda and surrounding islands are now no more than trash heaps due to Irma's winds and Jose could possibly have winds 120-140 mph when he goes through on Saturday. There is no where for folks to go to hide from Jose. I don't know whether an island evacuation is even possible.

The one piece of "good" news is Jose won't get to Irma's strength because of Irma. Irma chewed up the ocean pretty well and cooled the water temperatures from the upper 80s to the upper 70s to low 80s. There isn't the energy available to power Jose much above 125 mph. If Irma hadn't gone through this area, Jose could have powered up to 180 mph.
 
It is absolutely horrendous - Jose is literally following in Irma's footsteps. Sure he may not be as strong but as Barbuda and surrounding islands are already pretty much destroyed this would just finish them off and more lives could be at risk. And Irma hasn't even finished her path of mass destruction :(
 
Fewer than 2000 people live on Barbuda, so they can probably be evacuated. St. Martin and St. Bart's have significantly higher population, so not sure what can be done there... especially given the current condition of the airport on St. Martin.
 
Hurricane Jose has increased to 150 mph. Turns out that Jose is south of the path that Irma took. This means that Jose is in the area of warm water, just south of the area of cooler water churned up by Irma. Jose could strengthen still further.
 
Well that sucks that the steering currents are putting Jose over water that Irma didn't visit. I can't imagine the anxiety that people in the islands are feeling right now with back to back major storms.
 
@FGRSK8, I'd like to ask you something. I received another notice from my Weather Channel app. It directed me to an article that was about climate change and the fact that meteorologist scientists had never seen a satellite image before where 3 hurricanes were forming at the same time. The article said that climate change may not be the main factor, but it possibly caused some of the effects that contributed to the hurricanes forming. It also mentioned Harvey and how it had stalled for so long.

My question ... could climate change possibly be part of the problem why this has happened, and could it possibly get worse in the future years to come?
 
@Simone411, if you google "hurricanes climate change" you will find a wealth of recent articles on the topic. The themes seem to be that hurricane activity is and has always been cyclical - we have active years and less active years. We have been in a bit of a lull since 2005 but 2017 is clearly an active year. However, warming oceans caused by climate change are undoubtedly fueling the intensity of the storms.

So will the storms themselves get worse? Undoubtedly. But will this here be a relentless onslaught of calamitous storms every single year? That's by no means a certainty.
 
Pretty much covers it^^^

The warmer water will fuel more cat 5 storms in the years to come.

What makes storms "worse" now is there are more people in vulnerable areas. If the Labor Day Hurricane of 1936 had happened with today's population density back then, the death toll would probably been in the 10-20,000 range.
 
I just looked up the Labor Day Hurricane from the 1930's that FGRSK8 mentioned. Sustained winds of 185mph; storm surge of 20 feet. Wow. But as he said, it killed only about 400-500 people, as the area was far less populated then than it is now.
 
Do we know the estimated track for Jose yet? I know originally, the thought was that it might hit New England, but that was some time ago, making that forecast iffy.
 
FGRSK8 said:
What makes storms "worse" now is there are more people in vulnerable areas.
Click to expand...
I heard someone describe flooding as a man-made event, because it's development that makes it an issue. If an uninhabited area floods, no one notices or cares. But we have expanded development in high risk areas, which increases the impact of any natural event.

One of the news sites had an interesting side by side picture of Miami in 1925 vs. today - it was like a desert vs. Gotham, with today's Miami having so many more people, structures and paved land to impede runoff and absorption.
 
Long range models show Jose will wander around the South Atlantic over the next 10 days then lame landfall, are you ready for this? In New England on Wednesday September 20th. Ah yes, hurricane roulette continues....
 
FGRSK8 said:
Long range models show Jose will wander around the South Atlantic over the next 10 days then lame landfall, are you ready for this? In New England on Wednesday September 20th. Ah yes, hurricane roulette continues....
Click to expand...
I thought I may meet Irma when I fly into LaGuardia (on my way to Bangor, ME) on Sept. 20, but now you are saying Jose will be there. Wish I could reschedule this trip now.
 
Jose is going to wander around then threaten the northeast Bahamas by this weekend and possible move into the northeastern US next Tuesday or Wednesday.

All depends on steering currents.
 
European model has it doing a complete 360 in the middle of the ocean (which, all threats of damage aside is pretty cool science) before continuing west and then being pulled northeast. It could come close to the US but looks unlikely.
 
Hasn't the Euro model been the more reliable for Irma? Here's hoping it stays out.
 
Models are beginning to merge on a possible hit on eastern New England late next Tuesday into Wednesday.

Behind Jose, models are trying to spin up another hurricane to affect the east coast a week later.

Very active season!
 
FGRSK8 said:
The warmer water will fuel more cat 5 storms in the years to come.

What makes storms "worse" now is there are more people in vulnerable areas. If the Labor Day Hurricane of 1936 had happened with today's population density back then, the death toll would probably been in the 10-20,000 range.
Click to expand...
Isn't there some mitigation from much better forecasting and forecasting tools?
 
Last edited:
Reuven said:
Isn't there some mitigation from much better forecasting and forecasting tools?
Click to expand...
There is. That being said, the problem is that the number of days to evacuate an area is increasing at a rate slightly faster than the accuracy of the forecasts beyond 3-5 days.
 
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