Hurricane Ida

TOADS

Toad whisperer.....
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Indications continue to show that this hurricane will be a bad one and I think worthy of it's own thread.

Right now, Hurricane Ida will come ashore around Cocodrie on the delta south of Houma early Sunday afternoon as a cat 4, possibly near cat 5 with sustained winds of 140-150 mph with gusts probably to 155 mph. The hurricane will move over Morgan City, passing between Lafayette and Baton Rouge late Sunday night then curve to the north-northeast, passing over Norwood on the Louisiana/Mississippi border mid morning on Monday. Rainfall will be torrential and since the terrain is relatively flat, winds will be slow to wind down. There will be significant storm surge over Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain so there will be flooding near the New Orleans area outside of the levees. Later Monday and Monday night torrential rainfall will be across Mississippi and Alabama as the storm weakens and begins to rain out.
 

TOADS

Toad whisperer.....
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Latest model runs indicate that there is little change in the track or forward speed of Hurricane Ida as it moves towards the Louisiana coast. The big unknown is how fast and how much will the hurricane increase in wind speed before landfall. The storm is moving over waters that are in the high 80s to near 90 degrees which is more than adequate fuel for this storm.

Previous hurricanes that moved into such warm waters underwent explosive intensification before landfall. Andrew and Micheal come to mind that exploded to a cat 5 before landfall.

Right now models indicate an increase in wind speed to 145 mph at landfall. I will hasten to add that the models have a terrible record in forecasting explosive intensification. Hurricane Patricia in the Pacific off the Mexican coast a few years back was a minimal hurricane until it moved into an area of very warm water currently in the gulf. Models forecasted an intensification to 120 mph. Instead in a 24 hour period it went from 75 mph sustained winds to 215 mph sustained winds. This has happened a few times since and forecasters honest don’t know why.

I have no idea whether this will happen with Ida but I am concerned….
 

Simone411

Crazy about Jason, Karen's Spiral & Michelle Kwan
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I've been watching the models, too. My area is just to the east or left of the projected path. It did show Natchitoches which is 45 miles southwest of where I live in the projected path as Ida continues to proceed to the northeast in Louisiana. Lafayette is also in that projected path. I have a lot of friends that live throughout the south, and I'm praying for everyone.

What it so concerning is the huge storm surge that will be caused from Ida. It's a huge area that stretches across the Gulf Coast.

AccuWeather has a hurricane tracker where we can type in the location and it will give you the projected MPH and how much rain will be received (inches of rain).

 

TOADS

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There has been an ever so slight shift of the track to the right. Landfall looks to be around 5pm-7pm tomorrow. She is gaining strength, question is how. I have before landfall…
 

skatingguy

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There has been an ever so slight shift of the track to the right. Landfall looks to be around 5pm-7pm tomorrow. She is gaining strength, question is how. I have before landfall…
How much time before landfall, or how much strength can it gain? I think something is missing in one of your sentences.
 

TOADS

Toad whisperer.....
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as stated, landfall is between 5pm-7pm tomorrow evening. strength wise around 140 mph at landfall. Big question is will there be explosive intensification tonight and tomorrow morning to boost sustained winds higher than 140mph. That is the big unknown…
 

once_upon

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Apparently the Orleans airport is shut down for outgoing and incoming flights? According to my high school classmates who lives there.
 

Vash01

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TOADS

Toad whisperer.....
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Hurricane Ida will come ashore near Grande Isle, LA around 1-3pm as a cat 4 hurricane. It will move north-northwest to Morganza by daybreak on Monday. Rainfall along the track will be in the 10-20” range. Later in the week it will bring intense flooding into the Tennessee Valley, mid Atlantic states and southern New England.
 

Catherine M

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Hi everyone, I left yesterday morning at 5am and it took me over 12 hours to make it to Houston. I’m having extreme anxiety as today is the 16th anniversary of Katrina and find it just unbelievable that a stronger storm is making landfall.

please pray that the levees hold and that the loss of life isn’t catastrophic. Our beautiful state has been through so much so I’m not sure how we are going to come back from this. Godspeed to those that stayed behind, especially in the hospitals.
 

TanithandBenFan

Author of the Ice and Edge Series
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I’m right across the river from New Orleans, riding out the storm at my parents’ house. We won’t get the max winds here but it’s going to get scary this afternoon with expected gusts around 100 mph. They have a generator so we won’t lose power so I’ll update later. Please send all your prayers!! 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
 

ЭPiKUilyam

Banned Member
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Hi everyone, I left yesterday morning at 5am and it took me over 12 hours to make it to Houston. I’m having extreme anxiety as today is the 16th anniversary of Katrina and find it just unbelievable that a stronger storm is making landfall.

please pray that the levees hold and that the loss of life isn’t catastrophic. Our beautiful state has been through so much so I’m not sure how we are going to come back from this. Godspeed to those that stayed behind, especially in the hospitals.
Glad you're safe here in Houston, Catherine. Please call me if you need anything or would like to go to lunch or dinner.
 

Simone411

Crazy about Jason, Karen's Spiral & Michelle Kwan
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I’m right across the river from New Orleans, riding out the storm at my parents’ house. We won’t get the max winds here but it’s going to get scary this afternoon with expected gusts around 100 mph. They have a generator so we won’t lose power so I’ll update later. Please send all your prayers!! 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
I'm so sorry you're having to ride out Ida. I'll be keeping you and your family in my thoughts and prayers. Hugs!
 

TOADS

Toad whisperer.....
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Latest update is Ida now has sustained winds of 150 mph, 6 mph shy of a cat 5. She indeed is undergoing explosive intensification…

Landfall will be near Port Fourchon. This is really, really bad. This is the main port from which the petroleum pipeline runs up the eastern seaboard. This port went down for days after Katrina resulting in gas shortages along the east coast. Katrina only side swiped the port. Ida is going rignt over it which could flattened it. Prepare for some serious gas price increases….
 
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Lacey

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I'm so sorry you're having to ride out Ida. I'll be keeping you and your family in my thoughts and prayers. Hugs!
@Simone411, I can't exactly tell from your descriptions the past few days if you think you are going to be ok, but feel free to contact me at any time in the days or nights ahead if you need to scream or chat. STAY SAFE!!!
 
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TOADS

Toad whisperer.....
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Hurricane Ida is within a half an hour of coming ashore on Port Fourchon with sustained winds of up to 150 mph and would not be surprises with gusts 155-165 mph. Nasty.
 

ЭPiKUilyam

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You know, I'm sure this belongs in PI, but I'm already angry as F with the covid deniers and anti-vaxxers. Because of you, you fill up practically EVERY damn hospital along the Gulf Coast due to your selfishness and stupidity, so that none of those patients in the hospitals in NOLA could evacuate (nowhere to go to). AND, if there are many casualties due to this storm, where will THEY go? These dumbasses just enrage me. Sorry, had to get that out.
 

Vagabond

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You know, I'm sure this belongs in PI, but I'm already angry as F with the ********* deniers and anti-vaxxers. Because of you, you fill up practically EVERY damn hospital along the Gulf Coast due to your selfishness and stupidity, so that none of those patients in the hospitals in NOLA could evacuate (nowhere to go to). AND, if there are many casualties due to this storm, where will THEY go? These dumbasses just enrage me. Sorry, had to get that out.
You have spoken for many people.
 

Cachoo

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Let’s see we have fires, a monstrous hurricane, COVID, a mess in Afghanistan to be followed by slaughter in Afghanistan because we won’t be able to get everyone to safety…what a swell weekend.
 

PRlady

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Let’s see we have fires, a monstrous hurricane, *********, a mess in Afghanistan to be followed by slaughter in Afghanistan because we won’t be able to get everyone to safety…what a swell weekend.
Could be worse. You could be working in the White House.
 

TOADS

Toad whisperer.....
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It is worse. I am reading the Twitter feed out of Port Fourchon. They supply 20% of the oil and gas to the US and service 90% of the off shore drilling platforms. The feeds I am reading are hinting at total devastation.

Right now all the attention is being diverted to life and limb across LA as it should be. Once Ida passes, the impact of what is happening at that port will become the big story as it will affect a good part of the US.
 

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