How would Asada, Kim, and Kwan have placed at the 2006 Olympics

savchenkoboss

savchenkoboss

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There were 3 big absences from the 2006 Olympics, the biggest of all Mao Asada who would have been the gold medal favorite, but was kept out by age rules. Even though the slightly revised age rules for all future Games would have her eligible, the only Games she would have been ineligible for in history at the ones in 2006. Kim who likewise would have been eligible for every Games in history, and beat a faltering Mao to win the World Juniors, although she was unestablished at the Senior level unlike Mao who was bigtime after her startling debut on the grand prix series. And Kwan who was an obvious underdog but was to make her last bid for the elusive Olympic Gold.

If we assume the same performances by the skaters we got I could see them having finished like this:

Gold- Asada
Silver- Arakawa
Bronze- Slutskaya
4th- Cohen
5th- Suguri or Kwan
7th- Kim

I am writing Kim off basically since at Skate Canada 06 she was getting super low PCS. I think she needed more time to get her PCS and recognition from judges at the senior level.

I think even with the mistakes by the others Kwan would have had to be squeeky clean to be competitive, as she was past her prime, not suited to IJS, and technically inferior to the other contenders, while based on the 05 worlds she didn't exactly have a PCS advantage either. I see her probably having a clean short and a decent 4-5 tripe (not completely clean skate) type long and coming in about the same as Suguri points wise.

If they skate the same I have Slutskaya over Cohen for bronze as both had mistakes and were close in points anyway, but with Kwan in the event Cohen does not get all the USFSA politicking wile Slutskaya gets all of Russia's, which would likely be enough to swing the result. Plus I think the judges would be resistant to dropping Slutskaya off the podium unless they really had to, so with another skater coming over them, Cohen is the sacrificial lamb unless she skates better than she did.

Asada I am 99% sure would have won the gold. She had beaten Arakawa easily in all their meetings this year, and Shizuka won with a weak watered down 5 triple long program. Wouldn't come close to cutting it against Mao and her arsenal of triple axels and triple-triple combos. It is such a shame Mao still doesn't have an Olympic Gold when her best shot was stripped off her by a stupid rule. I wonder if Shizuka's gold feels tainted a bit in her mind due to Mao's absence.
 
savchenkoboss said:
There were 3 big absences from the 2006 Olympics, the biggest of all Mao Asada who would have been the gold medal favorite, but was kept out by age rules. Even though the slightly revised age rules for all future Games would have her eligible, the only Games she would have been ineligible for in history at the ones in 2006. Kim who likewise would have been eligible for every Games in history, and beat a faltering Mao to win the World Juniors, although she was unestablished at the Senior level unlike Mao who was bigtime after her startling debut on the grand prix series. And Kwan who was an obvious underdog but was to make her last bid for the elusive Olympic Gold.

If we assume the same performances by the skaters we got I could see them having finished like this:

Gold- Asada
Silver- Arakawa
Bronze- Slutskaya
4th- Cohen
5th- Suguri or Kwan
7th- Kim

I am writing Kim off basically since at Skate Canada 06 she was getting super low PCS. I think she needed more time to get her PCS and recognition from judges at the senior level.

I think even with the mistakes by the others Kwan would have had to be squeeky clean to be competitive, as she was past her prime, not suited to IJS, and technically inferior to the other contenders, while based on the 05 worlds she didn't exactly have a PCS advantage either. I see her probably having a clean short and a decent 4-5 tripe (not completely clean skate) type long and coming in about the same as Suguri points wise.

If they skate the same I have Slutskaya over Cohen for bronze as both had mistakes and were close in points anyway, but with Kwan in the event Cohen does not get all the USFSA politicking wile Slutskaya gets all of Russia's, which would likely be enough to swing the result. Plus I think the judges would be resistant to dropping Slutskaya off the podium unless they really had to, so with another skater coming over them, Cohen is the sacrificial lamb unless she skates better than she did.

Asada I am 99% sure would have won the gold. She had beaten Arakawa easily in all their meetings this year, and Shizuka won with a weak watered down 5 triple long program. Wouldn't come close to cutting it against Mao and her arsenal of triple axels and triple-triple combos. It is such a shame Mao still doesn't have an Olympic Gold when her best shot was stripped off her by a stupid rule. I wonder if Shizuka's gold feels tainted a bit in her mind due to Mao's absence.
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Asada was not eligible to compete so I am not sure why Shizuka would ever feel like her OGM was tainted. That is a really strange thing to say. Nothing was stripped off of her. No one her age was eligible to compete at the Olympics. She had two other chances for a gold medal. That's life.
 
UGG said:
Asada was not eligible to compete so I am not sure why Shizuka would ever feel like her OGM was tainted. That is a really strange thing to say. Nothing was stripped off of her. No one her age was eligible to compete at the Olympics. She had two other chances for a gold medal. That's life.
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Well she was 0-4 vs Asada that season and she won with just a 5 triple skate, so it seems impossible she delivered anywhere near the technical ammunition to have even challenged Asada had she skated. They are both Japanese and all, so I am just guessing at what some of the talk back home might have been.

Mao was not eligible, but it was the only year in history that she was ineligible for the Games. Even the 3 Olympics since she would have made the cut off under the slightly altered age rules. So based on that it seems a major fluke and injustice of sorts she was ineligible.

Mao really had zero other chances to win the Olympics. 2014 was fixed for Sotnikova from the start, Mao wouldnt have won with even 5 quads, and 2010 Yu Na was legitimately too strong and unbeatable. 2006 was her only shot in retrospect.
 
savchenkoboss said:
There were 3 big absences from the 2006 Olympics, the biggest of all Mao Asada who would have been the gold medal favorite, but was kept out by age rules. Even though the slightly revised age rules for all future Games would have her eligible, the only Games she would have been ineligible for in history at the ones in 2006. Kim who likewise would have been eligible for every Games in history, and beat a faltering Mao to win the World Juniors, although she was unestablished at the Senior level unlike Mao who was bigtime after her startling debut on the grand prix series. And Kwan who was an obvious underdog but was to make her last bid for the elusive Olympic Gold.
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I don’t think this is true, she would still be ineligible under the correct rule. She was born in September 1990 and she won’t be 15 by July 1st of 2005. So she would not be eligible for the games.
 
savchenkoboss said:
Well she was 0-4 vs Asada that season and she won with just a 5 triple skate, so it seems impossible she delivered anywhere near the technical ammunition to have even challenged Asada had she skated. They are both Japanese and all, so I am just guessing at what some of the talk back home might have been.

Mao was not eligible, but it was the only year in history that she was ineligible for the Games. Even the 3 Olympics since she would have made the cut off under the slightly altered age rules. So based on that it seems a major fluke and injustice of sorts she was ineligible.

Mao really had zero other chances to win the Olympics. 2014 was fixed for Sotnikova from the start, Mao wouldnt have won with even 5 quads, and 2010 Yu Na was legitimately too strong and unbeatable. 2006 was her only shot in retrospect.
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She was not old enough. There was no injustice. It was not a fluke. She was not old enough to go. No one broke any rules. After 1992, the Olympics were split into summer and winter games. Where is your injustice for THE KWEEN who, based on skating, would have won OGM in 1996 if it were not for the "injustice" of a rule? Again shit happens. Who cares. Mao had 2 other chances and didn't get it done. That's life.
 
UGG said:
She was not old enough. There was no injustice. It was not a fluke. She was not old enough to go. No one broke any rules. After 1992, the Olympics were split into summer and winter games. Where is your injustice for THE KWEEN who, based on skating, would have won OGM in 1996 if it were not for the "injustice" of a rule? Again shit happens. Who cares. Mao had 2 other chances and didn't get it done. That's life.
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I would never even think to mention that, since I highly doubt Kwan would have won a 96 Olympics personally.

A)Her inability (for whatever reason) to ever skate her best and fully handle the pressure of Olympic competition.

B)I am pretty sure a lot of the skaters who went pro after 94 are still around in 96 if there is no 94 Games, Baiul for sure is, Sato for sure is, Kerrigan and Harding probably are....The only strong veterans left by 95 were Chen and Bonaly, so the judges were open to worthy young skaters like Kwan and Slutskaya rising, would be much less so with a larger stack of veterans building to a 96 Olympics. Someone as young as Kwan would likely have to "wait her turn" as was the norm back then for newcomers, maybe get into contention for a bronze or something if she were still that good, but that is it.

C)Most important of all I believe Kwan herself confirmed she doesnt even sneak out and pass her senior test when she did against Frank's advice had there not been a 94 Olympics. So her timeline would be completely different and delayed atleast a year. Which wouldnt even likely have her as a potential contender for the 96 Oly gold, as it would put her where she was in 95 in 96.

You should have mentioned 2000, there is a way better shot of Kwan winning the Olympic Gold that year than in 1996. The only other gold contenders would be Slutskaya, who is an even bigger Olympic choker than Kwan, and Butyrskaya who lets face it even though she was a world gold contender around that time could you ever imagine winning Olympic Gold. Maybe Tara as the 4th gold contender if her hip wasnt completely gone by then, but if she doesnt have her triple loop combos anymore due to her hip, forget it.


Regarding Mao she didnt have another chance realistically of the Olympic Gold. There was no chance of beating Yu Na Kim in 2010 even if she skated perfectly, as Yu Na Kim was too strong at that event; and if you are a longtime skating fan I am sure you know of the rigged 2014 ladies event, there was no way to have beaten Sotnikova there regardless how amazingly Mao had skated. Her actual LP should have set a new LP WR and only was 3rd or 4th in that phase, which already says it all. 2006 in hindsight was her only shot at Olympic Gold.
 
I disagree with writing off Yuna Kim. She did not compete at the senior GPs / fall internationals that season because she knew she wasn't eligible for the Olympics anyway. If she was, I am sure she would have moved up to seniors internationally that season to give herself some more momentum. She did skate reasonably well all season at the junior level but who knows how she would have fared at a first year senior at the Olympics. She didn't win Worlds until her 3rd try.

Mao Asada landed 2 3axels at Japanese Nationals and won GPF, so I have no doubt she would make the team, most probably instead of Miki Ando. She was faltering a bit by the time of Jr Worlds so I don't know how she would have skated in February.

Michelle Kwan was injured and probably would have skated / placed like Fumie Suguri did, 5 solid triples but nothing outstanding on spins and TR to accumulate enough points to threaten the podium. I would love to see the battle of Totentanzes and the debut of Bells of Moscow four years in advance :P.
 
Marco said:
Michelle Kwan was injured and probably would have skated / placed like Fumie Suguri did, 5 solid triples but nothing outstanding on spins and TR to accumulate enough points to threaten the podium. I would love to see the battle of Totentanzes and the debut of Bells of Moscow four years in advance :p.
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The famous Bells of Moscow we all would have loved to watch !!!! ;)
 
giselle23 said:
She skated two clean skates in 1998, so she handled the Olympic pressure pretty well IMO.
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Pretty well for sure but it was with nowhere near the speed, abandon, and passion of either her Nationals or even Skate America performances. That is why she lost to Tara, who she would have beaten with the previous 2 performances IMHO even with the lack of a triple-triple. Frank Caroll her own coach summed it up like this "she was going for accuracy and consistency. Her performance though was very held in. It wasnt what she can do."
 
Marco said:
I disagree with writing off Yuna Kim. She did not compete at the senior GPs / fall internationals that season because she knew she wasn't eligible for the Olympics anyway. If she was, I am sure she would have moved up to seniors internationally that season to give herself some more momentum. She did skate reasonably well all season at the junior level but who knows how she would have fared at a first year senior at the Olympics. She didn't win Worlds until her 3rd try.

Mao Asada landed 2 3axels at Japanese Nationals and won GPF, so I have no doubt she would make the team, most probably instead of Miki Ando. She was faltering a bit by the time of Jr Worlds so I don't know how she would have skated in February.

Michelle Kwan was injured and probably would have skated / placed like Fumie Suguri did, 5 solid triples but nothing outstanding on spins and TR to accumulate enough points to threaten the podium. I would love to see the battle of Totentanzes and the debut of Bells of Moscow four years in advance :p.
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I am discounting Yu Na Kim solely based on how extremely low her PCS were in her first senior internationals early next season. Like at Skate Canada she was receiving way lower PCS than even Suguri, let alone Rochette. She still would have won this event (due to Rochette's mistakes) had she gone clean, but the PCS were much lower than those other two. It seems her skating wouldnt have been developed enough by the time of the Turin Olympics to get the PCS needed, unless she was really outstanding technically. Then come to think of it she already had a consistent triple lutz-triple toe and triple flip-triple toe which got big GOE so particularly with how Cohen and Slutskaya made so many mistakes, and everyone did/probably does watered down content besides Asada, that might be enough to overcome the much lower PCS. So on second thought I am probably underestimating her despite the inevitable low PCS. She could have been like the Sotnikova of Turin, killing everyone technically to overcome the inferior artistry/components.
 
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bardtoob said:
Claiming Michelle Kwan could not skate well at the Olympics is like claiming Midori Ito could not skate well at the Olympics. People tend to forget how they actually skated in 1998 and 1988, respectively, despite not winning.
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Ito in Calgary did skate amazing in the free skating, but choked in the figures which cost her a medal. So I wouldnt totally agree with skating well to her own potential, since figures are part of the competition. It is like the 1990 worlds where she aced the free skating but had choked in the figures. So in terms of how she competed I would give her a C or maybe B- both times due to botching the figures.
 
savchenkoboss said:
Ito in Calgary did skate amazing in the free skating, but choked in the figures which cost her a medal. So I wouldnt totally agree with skating well to her own potential, since figures are part of the competition. It is like the 1990 worlds where she aced the free skating but had choked in the figures. So in terms of how she competed I would give her a C or maybe B- both times due to botching the figures.
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But was Ito ever good in figures? If she was but did badly on occasion than one could call it ''choking'' of sort but otherwise no.
 
Areski said:
But was Ito ever good in figures? If she was but did badly on occasion than one could call it ''choking'' of sort but otherwise no.
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before Calgary, her world figures results were 19th and 14th. She was 10th in figures in Calgary and then dropped back to 14th at 88 worlds. In 89 she was 6th but 10th again in 90 hence the gold vs silver despite winning both sp and lp both times.

If anything, 10th at the Olys were one of her better figures results.
 
I thought she was 14th in figures in Calgary? She was 6th in figures at the 89 worlds so I assumed that is around what she was capable of on a good day, and I figure a finish 10th or lower like 88 Olympics or 90 worlds was underperforming for her 88-90 abilities, and a bit of "choke". 87 and before she was young so I dont judge those years so much.
 
Bad! Yuna Kim is the most overrated skater of all time. I love how she got what she deserved from the ISU judges. ISU judges are my personal role models.
 
savchenkoboss said:
Pretty well for sure but it was with nowhere near the speed, abandon, and passion of either her Nationals or even Skate America performances. That is why she lost to Tara, who she would have beaten with the previous 2 performances IMHO even with the lack of a triple-triple. Frank Caroll her own coach summed it up like this "she was going for accuracy and consistency. Her performance though was very held in. It wasnt what she can do."
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That is one theory on why she lost to Tara--put forward mainly by Frank. Other theories are skate order and Tara's scream at the end. I haven't actually heard from any of the judges why they put Tara first. In any event, Michelle skated very well and easily could have been placed first in the long based on that skate, like she was in the short (where Tara had higher tech as well). Tara got some second mark inflation in the long program which helped her. So I think it really was the scream at the end.
 
savchenkoboss said:
...

I am pretty sure a lot of the skaters who went pro after 94 are still around in 96 if there is no 94 Games, Baiul for sure is, Sato for sure is, Kerrigan and Harding probably are....The only strong veterans left by 95 were Chen and Bonaly, so the judges were open to worthy young skaters like Kwan and Slutskaya rising, would be much less so with a larger stack of veterans building to a 96 Olympics.
...
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Don't know what the results would have been, but IMO, a '96 Oly games would have been an incredible event!
 
If anybody thinks that the SP and LP placements and their overall influence on the final standings were fair in Calgary then they are a dumbass.

Furthermore, if anybody thinks Witt was not given generous marks in figures in Calgary then they are a dumbass.
 
One thing I know about the never seen Bells of Moscow program is that when Dave and Jenny talked about Tarasova giving that music to Asada for Vancouver and how she slapped herself and stuff, they asked Kwan if any of Asada's choreography was originally Kwan's. Kwan laughed and answered that she didn't remember slapping herself.
 
VIETgrlTerifa said:
One thing I know about the never seen Bells of Moscow program is that when Dave and Jenny talked about Tarasova giving that music to Asada for Vancouver and how she slapped herself and stuff, they asked Kwan if any of Asada's choreography was originally Kwan's. Kwan laughed and answered that she didn't remember slapping herself.
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I would have loved to have seen Kwan's version and see if it was a good fit for her or not, but IMO Mao's LP to that music was by her worst artistic program ever. The music felt overbearing and she didnt seem to relate to it at all. That is one reason she had no shot vs Kim that year (2010) even if she had skated perfectly. When she made a couple of mistakes it ended up having her nearly lose the silver to Rochette, even with her triple axels, and would have if Rochette had not screwed up a couple of her own jumps.
 
I think one of the biggest things that hurt Asada were the post-2007 IJS changes. It also pretty much killed Nakano's career. Ironically, Asada won her first Worlds after those changes were implemented.
 
giselle23 said:
That is one theory on why she lost to Tara--put forward mainly by Frank. Other theories are skate order and Tara's scream at the end. I haven't actually heard from any of the judges why they put Tara first. In any event, Michelle skated very well and easily could have been placed first in the long based on that skate, like she was in the short (where Tara had higher tech as well). Tara got some second mark inflation in the long program which helped her. So I think it really was the scream at the end.
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It might have also been Bonaly skating such an awful performance right before Tara. Something like an 8 year old regurgitated Four Seasons program she had used off and on since 91, a bunch of badly executed jump attempts, and an in your face backflip at the end. Tara must have looked godly by comparision after that mess.
 
I am sure Asada would have won.... Kim wasn't really on the big radar screen at that point, probably would have been if like Mao she competed in the SGP and won everything too. Kwan was long since past her prime and hadn't even competed in a year and was gifted pass after pass all the way to the Olys.

A 96 Olympics would have been AMAZING. I still think Kerrigan and Harding would have stayed in. Kerrigan could get all the endorsement $$$$ for three strong years, while Harding would have nothing else to do but drink, smoke, and commit crimes. They'd stay in. Same with Sato. Who knows maybe Ito would have stayed another quad if 96Olys was in Nagano and wouldn't have emotionally crumpled if Sato was no1. Also, and this is only my opinion, but if 1996 was the Olympic year, I REALLY think Nicole Bobek would have put it together and medaled. She was old enough to get serious, and not too old to be lazy and everything else she was getting up to.
 
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