How often does the favorite win at the Olympics?

[butyrskafanatic]

Looking at the last 35 years how many of the gold medal favorites (which is subjective) actually won?

1984 Pairs- Valova & Vasiliev. Yes
1984 Men- Hamilton. Yes
1984 Dance- Torvill & Dean. Yes
1984 Ladies- Witt. No, Sumners the reigning World Champion and winner of the last 3 U.S titles was probably the favorite.
1988 Pairs- Gordeeva & Grinkov. Yes
1988 Men- Boitano. No, Orser was the favorite.
1988 Dance- Bestiamanov & Bukin. Yes
1988 Ladies- Witt. Yes
1992 Pairs- Miskutienok & Dmitriev. Yes
1992 Men- Petrenko? Not sure. With Browning's back injury was he sort of the favorite.
1992 Dance- Klimova & Ponomarenko? Not sure again. Duchensays were reigning World Champs and at home but had not competed all season and K&P looked clearly improved and sharp from 91.
1992 Ladies- Yamaguchi? Not sure again. She was the reigning World Champion so maybe. Ito, Yamaguchi, Harding, were all seen as really close going into the Games though.
1994 Pairs- Gordeeva & Grinkov. Yes
1994 Men- Urmanov. No
1994 Dance- Gritschuk & Platov. No. After Europeans it wasnt a surprise they won but Usova & Zhulin and Torvill & Dean were probably still more favored.
1994 Ladies- Baiul. Yes
1998 Pairs- Kazahova & Dmitriev. No
1998 Men- Kulik. Again not sure, either he or Stojko was favored. Kulik won the GPF so it could be argued he was.
1998 Dance- Gritschuk & Platov. Yes
1998 Ladies- Lipinski. No
2002 Pairs- Berezhnaya & Sikharulidze and Sale & Pelletier. Yes, weird but with the top 2 pairs sharing gold will have to make it a yes.
2002 Men- Yagudin. Yes
2002 Dance- Anissina & Peizerat. Yes
2002 Ladies- Hughes. No
2006 Pairs- Totmianina & Marinin. Yes
2006 Men- Plushenko. Yes
2006 Dance- Navka & Kostomarov. Yes
2006 Ladies- Arakawa. No
2010 Pairs- Shen & Zhao. Yes
2010 Men- Lysacek. Maybe? He was the reigning World Champ and Plushenko clearly didnt have a gap on the field like 2010. I am not sure who was favored in 2010, Plushenko and Lysacek maybe were the top 2, although everyone knew in a cleanly skated event neither would medal this year but they were the two most reliable.
2010 Dance- Virtue & Moir. Yes. Debateable maybe since they had both lost to Davis & White at the recent GPF and Domnina & Shabalin were reigning World Champs but considering D&W didnt even have a world medal yet and D&S looking awful at Europeans I think they were.
2010 Ladies- Kim. Yes
2014 Pairs- Volosozhar & Trankov. Yes
2014 Men- Hanyu. Maybe? Honestly not sure which of Hanyu or Chan was favorite at that point.
2014 Dance- Davis & White. Yes
2014 Ladies- Sotnikova. No

So I have out of 36 times in the last 35 years the favorite won 21 times, did not win 9 times, and 6 maybes. Lets split the maybes in half and say yes for 3 and no for 3 and the favorite won 24 times out of 36, so 2/3 of the time in the last 35 years the favorite wins the Olympic Gold. An interesting stat.

And looking at the non favorites who won where were they seen going into the Games:

1984 ladies- Witt. 2nd favorite to Sumners probably.
1988 men- Boitano. 2nd favorite to Orser.
1992 Yamaguchi, Klimova & Ponomarenko, Petrenko- All atleast 2nd favorite if not favored.
1994 men- Urmanov. Probably about 6th favorite.
1994 dance- Gritschuk & Platov. 3rd favorite, despite being 2nd at Europeans.
1998 pairs- Kazahkova & Dmitriev? 3rd favorite to Berezhnaya & Sikharulidze and Woetzel & Steuer (reigning World Champs but injured) maybe. Somewhere from 2nd to 4th.
1998 men- Kulik. 2nd favorite atleast if not favored.
1998 ladies- Lipinski. 2nd favorite.
2002 ladies- Hughes. 3rd favorite.
2006 ladies- Arakawa. 3rd favorite.
2010 men- Lysacek. Could be argued anywhere from favorite to 4th favorite depending on your logic. Probably atleast top 3 though.
2014 men- Hanyu. 2nd favorite if not favorite.
2014 ladies- Sotnikova. Probably about 6th favorite.

So of the non favored winners only Hughes, Arakawa, Gritschuk & Platov, and possibly Kazahkova & Dmitriev, Sotnitkova, and Urmanov were outside the top 2. And only Sotnitkova and Urmanov who are way down the list of contenders were outside the top 3 favorites. Urmanov and Sotnkova are by far the two most surprising winners.

 

[Red Hot Chili Keegan]

Judging by your username, never!
Butyrskaya (not Butyrska, you should really learn to spell) didn't win any Olympics.

My favorite probably won't win the Olympics either, Keegan is not really a contender. But that's ok. It's all about the experience for him.

 

[fracturedleg]

The favorite wins much more often than people realize.

 

[fracturedleg]

My favorite probably won't win the Olympics either, Keegan is not really a contender. But that's ok. It's all about the experience for him.

He has a good shot to win the 2026 Olympics. He strikes me as a a late bloomer.

 

[briancoogaert]

In 1998, Lipinski was reigning World and 2-time reigning GPF champion...

The problem with that kind of stats is that for most there were not just one favorite.
For example : both Brians were co-favorite in 1988, Yamaguchi and Ito were clearly co-favorite in 1992, Kwan and Lipinski were co-favorite in 1998...

 

[fracturedleg]

In 1998, Lipinski was reigning World and 2-time reigning GPF champion...

The problem with that kind of stats is that for most there were not just one favorite.
For example : both Brians were co-favorite in 1988, Yamaguchi and Ito were clearly co-favorite in 1992, Kwan and Lipinski were co-favorite in 1998...

Yamaguchi and Ito probably. Kwan and Lipinski maybe. The Brians were not co favorites in 88 though. Orser was clearly the favorite, he had won their last 3 meetings, was reigning World Champ, and was in his home country. The rivalry was classic and highly hyped, but Orser was clearly the favorite and Boitano clearly the underdog and challenger.

 

[KimGOAT]

Totmianina & Marinin were not the favorites for the gold in 2006, Shen & Zhao were.

 

[VGThuy]

Not after Zhao's major injury. I know people were shocked they were able to compete.

 

[judgejudy27]

Petrenko and Browning were co-favorites in 1992 IMO. Especialy with Browning's injury.

Witt was probably the real favorite in 1984, even if Sumners was on paper.

 

[Twilight1]

If their weren't co favourites... why do I have such a hard time with FSU predictions?