It was a strategy that worked that one time, but what a time for it to work. Good for her. I believe Arakawa was winning the practices and she and Morosov observed how nervous Irina/Sasha were. Then the SP happened and she saw that she was seen as equal to them, and was not grouped in with the other competitors, so they had some sort of conservative skate strategy. If it worked, and Sasha and Irina skated the way they felt they may have, then it would lead to gold but if it didn’t and Sasha and Irina skated better than expected from practices, then Shizuka would still have done enough to ensure her a medal. That all being said, I personally think she wanted to do at least 6 triples but doubled up on that loop, which may have been comfortable for her, as it seems she did that multiple times previously that season. Even with the plan, I still think she was genuinely shocked that five triples from her did end up working after all. It was like how a lack of quad being made up elsewhere in the COP in comparison to his competitions ended up being the right strategy for Lysaceck win gold in 2010.