How does Sotnikova's career and the dynamics of Russian skating play out if she wins bronze in Sochi?

[savchenkoboss]

Had Adelina Sotnikova won the bronze medal Yu Na Kim and Carolina Kostner in Sochi, which 99% of people agreed she should have (or lower in some cases) what happens these past 4 years? I presume she never retires, there is no reason to. She probably guns for 2018 and she has advantages that could keep her over Medvedeva- higher jumps, more age/maturity, but her consistency would never match Medvedeva's so it would be an interesting match up. Does she now make it to 2018? Does Medvedeva ever emerge as the totally dominant Russian/skater? Then Zagitova, Pogorilaya, and how are they all effected.

Interesting to note Sotnikova is retired without even a world medal. She skated at one worlds and came 9th. Does she win numerous world medals and became a World Champion at some point? Atleast a European Champion? Be a medal contender at all or make the team by 2018?

Of course it is all speculation but it interesting to wonder all the same, what exactly happens had she not been gifted the gold in Sochi and predictably retired.

 

[tony]

Of course it is all speculation but it interesting to wonder all the same, what exactly happens had she not been gifted the gold in Sochi and predictably retired.

But you missed the part about coming back in the fall 2016 season, competing three or four times before Nationals, and then placing 6th there. She tried.

 

[savchenkoboss]

But you missed the part about coming back in the fall 2016 season, competing three or four times before Nationals, and then placing 6th there. She tried.

IMO it was a half baked effort at best. I dont think she had any serious intention of competing outside of Russia ever again. Kind of like how Sarah Hughes competed a few more times only in the United States after her SLC win. I actually predicted that right after Sochi, especialy with the negative outpouring over her win, and the next Games being in South Korea of all places. I sort of predict the same thing for Zagitova now, although I do think she is atleast much more likely to continue awhile than Sotnikova. She had no motivation anymore, she had achieved her biggest dream (and she also knew most skating fans outside of Russia saw her as a pariah of sorts after one of the biggest controversies ever which dragged her motivation/enthusiasm even further).

It is also well known her family is poor, and she got a ton of money for doing shows/exhibitions/tours in Russia as the first ever and reigning Russian OGM winner. This made it impossible for her to train seriously the way needed to combat an insanely deep field of Russian ladies. That is probably what she learnt in her few competitive outings against other Russian girls in fall 2015, when she no longer had the jumps to compete even though she got higher PCS than Medvedeva. That might have been a testing ground to see if she could realistically do both and still make a true comeback and it was clear she couldnt and she put her family's financial needs first which I respect. Without the OGM this is not the case and she can train the amount she needed to realistically try and be competitve.

Lets just say if she wins bronze in Sochi, I doubt all she does is compete 3 times in Russia in the 2015-2016 season and that is it.

 

[lala]

But you missed the part about coming back in the fall 2016 season, competing three or four times before Nationals, and then placing 6th there. She tried.

Yes. And she was seriously injured not once.

 

[savchenkoboss]

Yes. And she was seriously injured not once.

Just like Lysacek kept getting "injured" when he announced his comeback almost a whole 3 years before the Sochi Olympics but never once competed?

 

[bardtoob]

Given her fame in Russia but some international backlash regarding the gold that would not have happened with silver or bronze, I think Sotnikova's career would have been the exact same career if she won any one of the three medals in Sochi; I think she would have known it is pointless to continue to compete against Eteri's super juniors since she had be left off the team event in Sochi in favor of Julia.

 

[savchenkoboss]

Given her fame in Russia but some international backlash regarding the gold that would not have happened with silver or bronze, I think Sotnikova's career would have been the exact same career if she won any one of the three medals in Russia.

Really? She was only 17 in Sochi. I always figured (prior to Sochi) she was a huge star of the future, and probably the future of Russian skating and had a lot more to give. Now seeing Russian skating only get a lot stronger post Sochi the future of Russian skating part may no longer be as likely, but I never figured prior to Sochi that would for all intents and purposes, ever be the end of her competitive career.

 

[bardtoob]

Really? She was only 17 in Sochi. I always figured (prior to Sochi) she was a huge star of the future, and probably the future of Russian skating and had a lot more to give. Now seeing Russian skating only get a lot stronger post Sochi the future of Russian skating part may no longer be as likely, but I never figured prior to Sochi that would for all intents and purposes, ever be the end of her competitive career.

The rumors were that Medvedeva was already prepared to overtake Lipnitskaya, and I always thought Eteri's students were preferred by the Russian Federation although Sotnikova's jumps were bigger.

 

[savchenkoboss]

The rumors were that Medvedeva was already prepared to overtake Lipnitskaya, and I always thought Eteri's students were preferred by the Russian Federation although Sotnikova's jumps were bigger.

Sotnikova was the Russian fed. pet while she competed. She won Russian Nationals 5 times despite that she rarely had the best international results of the Russian girls. Tarasova was firmly in her corner and she is more powerful than even Eteri I believe, despite basically being retired as a full time coach/choreographer.

 

[blue_idealist]

I think things would have gone the same for Sotnikova, since even bronze would have been a higher-than-expected finish for someone who had never been higher than 9th at Worlds. There might have not been as much public outcry but I believe the skater would have reacted the same way and made the same decisions afterward.

 

[savchenkoboss]

I think things would have gone the same for Sotnikova, since even bronze would have been a higher-than-expected finish for someone who had never been higher than 9th at Worlds. There might have not been as much public outcry but I believe the skater would have reacted the same way and made the same decisions afterward.

It is possible but I think she always dreamed of winning big titles and an Olympic bronze, as great as it is, doesnt fulfill this. And she wouldnt be making riches in Russia like she is now, with just an Olympic bronze. She is no legend like Slutskaya or dominant skater like Medvedeva.

 

[lala]

Just like Lysacek kept getting "injured" when he announced his comeback almost a whole 3 years before the Sochi Olympics but never once competed?

I noticed, you have no enough informations, you don't know the details, facts about many things but you are brave to say very serious opinions. I recommend you again learn and check the stories.
Probably Adelina took and showed fake pictures on her legs, the medical treatment in Italy, lied to the whole Russian media , figure skating society, etc...
She was seriously injured not once. I didn't say more.

 

[Icetigger]

Sotnikova isn't worth discussing.

 

[misskarne]

Does she still snap her achilles tendon in the universe you're imagining?

 

[blue_idealist]

It is possible but I think she always dreamed of winning big titles and an Olympic bronze, as great as it is, doesnt fulfill this. And she wouldnt be making riches in Russia like she is now, with just an Olympic bronze. She is no legend like Slutskaya or dominant skater like Medvedeva.

Hmm. It's true that she wouldn't be making as much money as she is as an OBM. I think that's all she would have ended up as in 2018 though, too, since I believe Medvedeva and Zagitova are both better. She probably could have beaten Osmond.

 

[caseyedwards]

It really is a mystery why isu didn’t revoke sotnikovas gold medal after she hugged the Russian judge

 

[hanca]

Wow, this thread! I am surprised no one suggested yet that she should be impeached!

 

[savchenkoboss]

Hmm. It's true that she wouldn't be making as much money as she is as an OBM. I think that's all she would have ended up as in 2018 though, too, since I believe Medvedeva and Zagitova are both better. She probably could have beaten Osmond.

It is hard to say. I agree as she was in 2014 even her best is only worth a bronze in 2018, or quite possibly only 4th place behind Osmond. However her skating in shows and the couple competitions she did in Russia showed massive improvement in her history. If you look at some online videos of her skating since 2014 you will see this. If she could clean up the sloppiness of her jumps and a few of her spins, keep improving her artistry, and get more consistent, she might be able to fight with Medvedeva and Zagitova.

 

[blue_idealist]

It is hard to say. I agree as she was in 2014 even her best is only worth a bronze in 2018, or quite possibly only 4th place behind Osmond. However her skating in shows and the couple competitions she did in Russia showed massive improvement in her history. If you look at some online videos of her skating since 2014 you will see this. If she could clean up the sloppiness of her jumps and a few of her spins, keep improving her artistry, and get more consistent, she might be able to fight with Medvedeva and Zagitova.

Yeah, I have not seen any of her show skating since she won the OGM, just not really that interested, but I did enjoy her performances at Russian Nats the year after when she briefly came back to competition, even though she was only 6th (IIRC).

 

[Cleo1782]

I think it's really hard to speculate about a 17 year old girl. She was smart to take her gold and run. She was a very talented skater and could have done more. It's like asking would Michelle have continued if she won in 1998? Not the same level of talent, but who knows. When your career goals are accomplished how can you speculate?

 

[misskarne]

I think it's really hard to speculate about a 17 year old girl. She was smart to take her gold and run.

Except this isn't what happened. She had every intention of continuing. Then she snapped her achilles tendon.

 

[kwanatic]

Despite all the hate she receives I was actually a big fan of Adelina's. I thought she was one of the most talented skaters in the field at the time. However, she was just getting started and needed more refinement and maturity (which she gained in later years). In Sochi she definitely had a case to win gold...but overall, I think the weaknesses in her skating were ignored by the judges and she was given a medal she shouldn't have received.

I feel like if Adelina stayed in her career may have gone the route of Kaetlyn Osmond's. I see a lot of similarities b/w the two: powerful skaters with big jumps, a lot of personality and performance, and a habit of letting nerves get the better of them. Heading into Sochi Adelina was getting better at keeping herself together...she was just beginning to learn to compete. Ultimately, similar to Kaetlyn, I feel as though Adelina would have gotten herself together enough to win medals consistently, including a world medal or two. Gold? IDK with Medvedeva around but I think she'd have been a solid #2 or #3 for Russia during this quad which would have kept her in the top 6 or so.

But, with things as they are, I think she did the smartest thing she could do with her situation. There was no reason to come back and get stomped by the Eteri girls. Adelina found a way to build a life off of what she was given. That's great for her even though she's not going to be remembered fondly in this sport. I still enjoy her better performances back when she was competing. I hate that her career went the way it did but, oh well...

 

[MrMystery]

IMO, Sotnikova's 2014 (season and especially Olympics) really came down to luck and peaking at an opportune time. Sure, an argument could be made that had she continued, had she not had injuries, etc., she may have continued to improve and win titles, but I think she really would have only been a bronze medal contender, if not middle of the pack skater. She took her gold (deserved or not, depending on the person) and ran with it. As she should have.

 

[Meoima]

I still pretty much enjoy her performance, especially her body lines. Too bad she did not compete more.

 

[savchenkoboss]

I think it's really hard to speculate about a 17 year old girl. She was smart to take her gold and run. She was a very talented skater and could have done more. It's like asking would Michelle have continued if she won in 1998? Not the same level of talent, but who knows. When your career goals are accomplished how can you speculate?

It is interesting you say that since her athletic, jumping, and overall technical talents seem a lot higher than Kwan's. Her artistic talents are probably less, but that isnt really a fair comparision when one retired so young, and that usually improves with age.

All I know is prior to Sochi a lot were talking about her as the star of the future and the future of Russian skating. Then again it wasnt predicted the extreme depth that has come since, that leads to them dominanting as a country even more than the U.S ever did, would come.

 

[savchenkoboss]

Except this isn't what happened. She had every intention of continuing. Then she snapped her achilles tendon.

That was unlucky for sure, but she had other periods since then she wasnt injured. She just didnt seem as motivated after accomplishing her dream. Plus the other variables I mentioned- next Olympics in South Korea, insane increase in Russian depth for ladies, the negativity reaction outside of Russia to her win. I just dont see her barely competing again had she not won gold, but nobody will ever know for sure.

 

[bardtoob]

All I know is prior to Sochi a lot were talking about her as the star of the future and the future of Russian skating. Then again it wasnt predicted the extreme depth that has come since, that leads to them dominanting as a country even more than the U.S ever did, would come.

My perception was that she was the star of the future in 2011-12ish, but was eclipsed by Lipnitskaya in the 2013-14 season and Radionova looked to be the star of the future.

 

[savchenkoboss]

Despite all the hate she receives I was actually a big fan of Adelina's. I thought she was one of the most talented skaters in the field at the time. However, she was just getting started and needed more refinement and maturity (which she gained in later years). In Sochi she definitely had a case to win gold...but overall, I think the weaknesses in her skating were ignored by the judges and she was given a medal she shouldn't have received.

I feel like if Adelina stayed in her career may have gone the route of Kaetlyn Osmond's. I see a lot of similarities b/w the two: powerful skaters with big jumps, a lot of personality and performance, and a habit of letting nerves get the better of them. Heading into Sochi Adelina was getting better at keeping herself together...she was just beginning to learn to compete. Ultimately, similar to Kaetlyn, I feel as though Adelina would have gotten herself together enough to win medals consistently, including a world medal or two. Gold? IDK with Medvedeva around but I think she'd have been a solid #2 or #3 for Russia during this quad which would have kept her in the top 6 or so.

But, with things as they are, I think she did the smartest thing she could do with her situation. There was no reason to come back and get stomped by the Eteri girls. Adelina found a way to build a life off of what she was given. That's great for her even though she's not going to be remembered fondly in this sport. I still enjoy her better performances back when she was competing. I hate that her career went the way it did but, oh well...

I agree with all that but I am not sure Medvedeva would have risen to #1 as easily if there had been anyone in the way. Despite the depth of Russian women there wasnt really any serious obstacle to Medvedeva rising to dominance.

Anna P was never going to be more than a bronze medal contender type skater.
Elena R had too many glaring weaknesses in both her technique and style, making her very easy to pass.
Sotnikova was gone.
Lipnitskaia was done.
Tuktamysheva pretty much collapsed after her career season in 2015.

At the very least I think Sotnikova could have been a better challenger/rival to Medvedeva than anyone until Zagitova in 2018.

 

[bardtoob]

Elena R had too many glaring weaknesses in both her technique and style, making her very easy to pass.

Radionova's technical deficiencies took a few years to be a detriment because she was remarkably consistent despite her glaring flaws. She had the amazing ability to will herself into a one foot landing.

 

[zigzig]

She might be have continued being a sentimental favorite but there's no way she could have fended off Tuk's meteoric 2015 season and the rise of Med. Her skating was sloppy, she was inconsistent and her programs made you want to jump off a bridge.