2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

[Karen-W]

It will be interesting to see what Italy does about the Men's events. On the face of today's results, I would not use Grassl for the Free and maybe not the Short either, even if his scoring potential is higher than Rizzo's.

I think it depends on what sort of shape Grassl is in - is he dealing with some sort of injury? That FS was an absolute mess today but he's the only hope Italy has of beating Egadze in the FS segment - when he's able to stand up all of his jumps, that is. Rizzo may be able to keep it close in the SP, but that's presuming he can repeat the SP from this week in Milano.

 

[Allskate]

It will be interesting to see what Italy does about the Men's events. On the face of today's results, I would not use Grassl for the Free and maybe not the Short either, even if his scoring potential is higher than Rizzo's.

Unfortunately, Rizzo has certainly had his share of problems this season. I don't think his swings are as big as Grassl's, though. Grassl's swings aren't Aymoz level and Grassl was doing better earlier in the season, but his quads often aren't that great even when landed and you really don't know what you are going to get with him. From a biased perspective, I much prefer Rizzo, so I'm hoping to see Rizzo in the team event. But, I wouldn't be surprised if Italy puts their chances in the hands of the Pope.

 

[Vagabond]

I wouldn't be surprised if Italy puts their chances in the hands of the Pope.

Bob Prevost might have done better out there than Grassl today.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

I’m mean, there’s today and then there’s the rest of the season.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Grassl's swings aren't Aymoz level

"Swings at the Aymoz level" could have been a reputation level.

 

[Vagabond]

"Swings at the Aymoz level" could have been a reputation level.

The little boxes would have varied unpredictably from solid red to solid green and back.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Unfortunately, Rizzo has certainly had his share of problems this season. I don't think his swings are as big as Grassl's, though. Grassl's swings aren't Aymoz level and Grassl was doing better earlier in the season, but his quads often aren't that great even when landed and you really don't know what you are going to get with him. From a biased perspective, I much prefer Rizzo, so I'm hoping to see Rizzo in the team event. But, I wouldn't be surprised if Italy puts their chances in the hands of the Pope.

I heard they are deploying Frangi. And by that I mean the voice in my head.

 

[angi]

From the press conference after the FD at Europeans, it sounded like all three of FB/C, G/F, and F/G plan to skate in the team event. Not a surprise regarding G/F and G/F, but it will be interesting having FB/C there (I would also not be surprised if they end up backing out).

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

Grassl used to have skates like this half the time. I think this one might be a one off. He`s certainly skating better than he ever has this season.

 

[BittyBug]

Assuming Malinin will not skate the free program, the U.S. faces the same choice - do you pick the skater that has the most upside potential but also the most downside, or do you pick the skater whose performances have been more consistent? Or basically, do you take higher risk since it also has the potential for higher reward, or do you make a conservative decision and try to limit your potential for loss?

 

[Allskate]

Assuming Malinin will not skate the free program, the U.S. faces the same choice - do you pick the skater that has the most upside potential but also the most downside, or do you pick the skater whose performances have been more consistent? Or basically, do you take higher risk since it also has the potential for higher reward, or do you make a conservative decision and try to limit your potential for loss?

Neither of them have had consistent performances. Torgy has crashed spectacularly at Worlds, but Max has never even qualified for Worlds and barely qualified for the team this year. Torgy has had jumping problems at all of his competitions this season, but Max has had multiple jumping problems in all of his competitions this season, including Nationals. Neither of them is a good choice. But, Torgy generally has scored better than Max, has beaten Max multiple times (including by almost 20 points in the latest Nationals FS), has a higher technical ceiling, and the judges would think that Torgy has better presentation. I wanted Max to make the team and for Torgy not to make the team, but I really don't see a valid argument for Max to be in the TE.

 

[BittyBug]

Neither of them have had consistent performances. Torgy has crashed spectacularly at Worlds, but Max has never even qualified for Worlds and barely qualified for the team this year. Torgy has had jumping problems at all of his competitions this season, but Max has had multiple jumping problems in all of his competitions this season, including Nationals. Neither of them is a good choice. But, Torgy generally has scored better than Max, has beaten Max multiple times (including by almost 20 points in the latest Nationals FS), has a higher technical ceiling, and the judges would think that Torgy has better presentation. I wanted Max to make the team and for Torgy not to make the team, but I really don't see a valid argument for Max to be in the TE.

Looking at just the free skate, which is what would be at stake:

Torgy’s lowest FS score this season: 136.26 (NHK)
Naumov’s lowest FS score this season: 146.72 (Lombardia)

Torgashev:

• Median FS score from internationals this season: 157.02
• Standard deviation across internationals this season: 19.39

Naumov:

• Median FS score from internationals this season: 151.47
• Standard deviation across internationals this season: 6.55

Torgashev may have a higher upside, but he’s more volatile. I’m not saying which approach is correct, just that there are two different paths - highest upside vs. least downside. This season at least, the least downside is Naumov.

 

[Bulletsdad]

Neither of them have had consistent performances. Torgy has crashed spectacularly at Worlds, but Max has never even qualified for Worlds and barely qualified for the team this year. Torgy has had jumping problems at all of his competitions this season, but Max has had multiple jumping problems in all of his competitions this season, including Nationals. Neither of them is a good choice. But, Torgy generally has scored better than Max, has beaten Max multiple times (including by almost 20 points in the latest Nationals FS), has a higher technical ceiling, and the judges would think that Torgy has better presentation. I wanted Max to make the team and for Torgy not to make the team, but I really don't see a valid argument for Max to be in the TE.

I agree. Naumov has a PB of 151, while Torgy's is 161. Even a 151 only has a remote chance of placing higher than 5th. 161 could beat Gogolev. Of course, all bets are off if Grassl is selected for FS and has another meltdown.