2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

[Karen-W]

It will be interesting to see what Italy does about the Men's events. On the face of today's results, I would not use Grassl for the Free and maybe not the Short either, even if his scoring potential is higher than Rizzo's.

I think it depends on what sort of shape Grassl is in - is he dealing with some sort of injury? That FS was an absolute mess today but he's the only hope Italy has of beating Egadze in the FS segment - when he's able to stand up all of his jumps, that is. Rizzo may be able to keep it close in the SP, but that's presuming he can repeat the SP from this week in Milano.

 

[Allskate]

It will be interesting to see what Italy does about the Men's events. On the face of today's results, I would not use Grassl for the Free and maybe not the Short either, even if his scoring potential is higher than Rizzo's.

Unfortunately, Rizzo has certainly had his share of problems this season. I don't think his swings are as big as Grassl's, though. Grassl's swings aren't Aymoz level and Grassl was doing better earlier in the season, but his quads often aren't that great even when landed and you really don't know what you are going to get with him. From a biased perspective, I much prefer Rizzo, so I'm hoping to see Rizzo in the team event. But, I wouldn't be surprised if Italy puts their chances in the hands of the Pope.

 

[Vagabond]

I wouldn't be surprised if Italy puts their chances in the hands of the Pope.

Bob Prevost might have done better out there than Grassl today.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

I’m mean, there’s today and then there’s the rest of the season.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Grassl's swings aren't Aymoz level

"Swings at the Aymoz level" could have been a reputation level.

 

[Vagabond]

"Swings at the Aymoz level" could have been a reputation level.

The little boxes would have varied unpredictably from solid red to solid green and back.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Unfortunately, Rizzo has certainly had his share of problems this season. I don't think his swings are as big as Grassl's, though. Grassl's swings aren't Aymoz level and Grassl was doing better earlier in the season, but his quads often aren't that great even when landed and you really don't know what you are going to get with him. From a biased perspective, I much prefer Rizzo, so I'm hoping to see Rizzo in the team event. But, I wouldn't be surprised if Italy puts their chances in the hands of the Pope.

I heard they are deploying Frangi. And by that I mean the voice in my head.

 

[angi]

From the press conference after the FD at Europeans, it sounded like all three of FB/C, G/F, and F/G plan to skate in the team event. Not a surprise regarding G/F and G/F, but it will be interesting having FB/C there (I would also not be surprised if they end up backing out).

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

Grassl used to have skates like this half the time. I think this one might be a one off. He`s certainly skating better than he ever has this season.

 

[BittyBug]

Assuming Malinin will not skate the free program, the U.S. faces the same choice - do you pick the skater that has the most upside potential but also the most downside, or do you pick the skater whose performances have been more consistent? Or basically, do you take higher risk since it also has the potential for higher reward, or do you make a conservative decision and try to limit your potential for loss?

 

[Allskate]

Assuming Malinin will not skate the free program, the U.S. faces the same choice - do you pick the skater that has the most upside potential but also the most downside, or do you pick the skater whose performances have been more consistent? Or basically, do you take higher risk since it also has the potential for higher reward, or do you make a conservative decision and try to limit your potential for loss?

Neither of them have had consistent performances. Torgy has crashed spectacularly at Worlds, but Max has never even qualified for Worlds and barely qualified for the team this year. Torgy has had jumping problems at all of his competitions this season, but Max has had multiple jumping problems in all of his competitions this season, including Nationals. Neither of them is a good choice. But, Torgy generally has scored better than Max, has beaten Max multiple times (including by almost 20 points in the latest Nationals FS), has a higher technical ceiling, and the judges would think that Torgy has better presentation. I wanted Max to make the team and for Torgy not to make the team, but I really don't see a valid argument for Max to be in the TE.

 

[BittyBug]

Neither of them have had consistent performances. Torgy has crashed spectacularly at Worlds, but Max has never even qualified for Worlds and barely qualified for the team this year. Torgy has had jumping problems at all of his competitions this season, but Max has had multiple jumping problems in all of his competitions this season, including Nationals. Neither of them is a good choice. But, Torgy generally has scored better than Max, has beaten Max multiple times (including by almost 20 points in the latest Nationals FS), has a higher technical ceiling, and the judges would think that Torgy has better presentation. I wanted Max to make the team and for Torgy not to make the team, but I really don't see a valid argument for Max to be in the TE.

Looking at just the free skate, which is what would be at stake:

Torgy’s lowest FS score this season: 136.26 (NHK)
Naumov’s lowest FS score this season: 146.72 (Lombardia)

Torgashev:

• Median FS score from internationals this season: 157.02
• Standard deviation across internationals this season: 19.39

Naumov:

• Median FS score from internationals this season: 151.47
• Standard deviation across internationals this season: 6.55

Torgashev may have a higher upside, but he’s more volatile. I’m not saying which approach is correct, just that there are two different paths - highest upside vs. least downside. This season at least, the least downside is Naumov.

 

[Bulletsdad]

Neither of them have had consistent performances. Torgy has crashed spectacularly at Worlds, but Max has never even qualified for Worlds and barely qualified for the team this year. Torgy has had jumping problems at all of his competitions this season, but Max has had multiple jumping problems in all of his competitions this season, including Nationals. Neither of them is a good choice. But, Torgy generally has scored better than Max, has beaten Max multiple times (including by almost 20 points in the latest Nationals FS), has a higher technical ceiling, and the judges would think that Torgy has better presentation. I wanted Max to make the team and for Torgy not to make the team, but I really don't see a valid argument for Max to be in the TE.

I agree. Naumov has a PB of 151, while Torgy's is 161. Even a 151 only has a remote chance of placing higher than 5th. 161 could beat Gogolev. Of course, all bets are off if Grassl is selected for FS and has another meltdown.

 

[Karen-W]

From the press conference after the FD at Europeans, it sounded like all three of FB/C, G/F, and F/G plan to skate in the team event. Not a surprise regarding G/F and G/F, but it will be interesting having FB/C there (I would also not be surprised if they end up backing out).

There's been speculation that FBCiz may agree to do the TE FD and leave the TE RD responsibilities to LopBri, banking on the idea that France won't make the FS/FD phase, so they won't actually have to skate in the TE but they still look like team players. Personally, I think they'd be better off doing the RD and trying to beat ChoBat in that segment once before they take the ice for the ice dance RD.

 

[SidelineSkater]

As we saw in Beijing, winning the team RD/FD doesn’t always translate into beating the same team in the individual dance event.

 

[angi]

There's been speculation that FBCiz may agree to do the TE FD and leave the TE RD responsibilities to LopBri, banking on the idea that France won't make the FS/FD phase, so they won't actually have to skate in the TE but they still look like team players. Personally, I think they'd be better off doing the RD and trying to beat ChoBat in that segment once before they take the ice for the ice dance RD.

I doubt anyone thinks France is going to qualify given their state in Pairs and Women, so that doesn't make much sense to me, plus the FD is even closer to the start of the individual event than the RD, so it makes much more sense for them to do the RD.
I also think it's a good idea for them to do the RD. It's always a good idea to take your program for a spin on Olympic ice in front of the same panel that will judge you in the individual event as well. By past experience, it's also an opportunity to get social media attention, and I think they have very accessible material.

 

[Braulio]

Given the element called with an ! in the rhythm dance at Europeans and that they will have to rework it, I think that will be the reason for Laurence and Guillaume to skate the Team Event, the RD portion in order to present the fixed program and receive feedback before the real deal, they just cant afford to make another mistake and lose valuable tenths of a point against C/B

 

[Allskate]

I doubt FBCiz want to compete in the TE since it is so close to the individual dance competition and they have so little chance of medaling in the TE, much less getting a gold medal.

 

[Karen-W]

It really doesn't matter who the USA puts in for the Men's TE FS between Naumov & Torgashev unless both of them skate far better in that segment than they've done so far internationally this season. Both of them have an average FS international score this season that puts them last in the TE FS regardless of whether France or Canada makes the FS/FD segment. If Italy splits the men for the TE and puts Rizzo in for the FS segment, then maybe one of the US men can beat him, but that's not anything I'd be willing to bet on, and the likelihood of beating Gogolev in the TE FS is even lower. I'd give it 50/50 odds of beating Aymoz in the TE FS.

Here's the data I'm looking at - I'm not considering domestic competitions (Nats, French Masters, NQS, Japanese Regionals, etc) since domestic score inflation is a known phenomena (most recent score listed first, oldest score listed last):

Torgashev - 136.26, 161.84, 152.19 - season average = 150.10
Naumov - 148.51, 153.89, 151.47, 146.72 - season average = 150.15
Rizzo - 168.37, 153.22, 150.80, 153.49, 166.94, 126.72 - season average = 151.45
Aymoz - 152.00, 159.97, 142.64, 168.41 - season average = 155.76
Gogolev - 164.26, 150.35, 167.87, 164.59 - season average = 161.77

Sato & Egadze are WAY ahead on their season average score and it's hard to imagine a world in which they don't finish 1-2 in the TE FS. Both Siao Him Fa & Grassl are also behind Sato & Egadze, with Siao Him Fa being the closest to Egadze (less than a point separates them) and Grassl being about a point higher than Gogolev.

But, as far as the US goes and the points given up in the TE Men's FS segment alone, it truly will not matter which of the other two is used. We use one of them and we lose the gold medal to Japan by 1 point or 0 points on the tiebreaker - and that also doesn't matter if it's France or Canada in the FS/FD segment, presuming we also split ice dance.

The only way a TE gold is guaranteed is if the US does NOT split men & ice dance.

As far as the women go, if I were Japan, I'd put Chiba in the SP and Sakamoto in the FS. For starters, Sakamoto has the flag bearer duties the same day as the TE Women's SP. Second, Chiba has the highest SP average of the three Japanese women while Sakamoto has the highest FS average of the three.

If that's the line-up Japan goes with for the Women, Liu is the best choice for the US in the SP as she has a higher season average than anyone else in the world. Glenn's SP average is lower than Chiba, which is another potential point given away to Japan. For the TE Women's FS, it doesn't matter who the US uses - their FS averages are lower than all three of the Japanese women. Glenn comes closest but her FS season average is still 5+ points lower than Sakamoto's.

Pairs continues to be the weakest link for the US. We're in a better position if Italy splits, which they may do, but it's still looking grim because the depth of the TE Pairs SP field is pretty much impossible for KamO to overcome. They're finishing 6th in the SP unless there's another 2018-esque TE Pairs SP debacle where Alexa & Chris finished a shocking 3rd in another deep field. And when I say they're finishing 6th - their SB for the SP is lower than the lowest SP score of the five teams who will finish ahead of them - MiuKih, MetBeru, ConMac, SuiHan & SDDes.

 

[Karen-W]

I doubt anyone thinks France is going to qualify given their state in Pairs and Women, so that doesn't make much sense to me, plus the FD is even closer to the start of the individual event than the RD, so it makes much more sense for them to do the RD.
I also think it's a good idea for them to do the RD. It's always a good idea to take your program for a spin on Olympic ice in front of the same panel that will judge you in the individual event as well. By past experience, it's also an opportunity to get social media attention, and I think they have very accessible material.

Not sure why anyone thinks that. Canada is surprisingly vulnerable, even moreso if FBCiz skate the TE RD.

Let's operate on the assumption that FBCiz do compete in the TE RD.

RD points -
Canada - 8 - GilPoir 3rd
France - 9 - FBCiz 2nd

Pairs SP points -
Canada - 6 - SDDes 5th based on season averages
France - 3 - Les Kovs 8th based on season averages - the SP is their stronger, better scoring program this season & they should beat ChtWoz & KOR has no pairs team; their season average is higher than VLDigs, but let's assume VLDigs beat them here for this scenario

Women's SP points - the season averages for Schizas & Schild are within a point of each other, with Schild being ahead, but let's go ahead and give Schizas the advantage
Canada - 4 - Schizas 7th based on season averages
France - 3 - Schild 8th based on season averages

Men's SP points -
Canada - 4 - Gogolev - 7th based on season averages
France - 7 - Siao Him Fa - 4th based on season averages

SP/RD Total points -
Canada - 22
France - 22

Tiebreaker - points from highest placing segments
France - 9+7 = 16
Canada - 8+6 = 14

France qualifies for the FS/FD over Canada. And that's being generous and giving Schizas the win over Schild and putting Les Kovs behind VLDigs. If the results go the other way in one or both of those segments, France makes the FS/FD over Canada by anywhere from 1 to 3 points.

 

[Allskate]

It really doesn't matter who the USA puts in for the Men's TE FS between Naumov & Torgashev unless both of them skate far better in that segment than they've done so far internationally this season. Both of them have an average FS international score this season that puts them last in the TE FS regardless of whether France or Canada makes the FS/FD segment.

If USFS believes that both Naumov and Torgashev would come in last in the FS, does it make sense not to have either of them skate? Split the women. Assign Ilia to the FS. Ilia can just go out and take a bow in the FS, especially if the U.S. has somehow managed to lock up the win by then. (Men's FS is the last segment of the TE.) Part of me likes this because I think that Alysa, Amber, and Isabeau all have done so much more to earn a spot in the TE than either Max or Andrew. But, I doubt Ilia would agree to this or that USFS would put him in that position.

 

[Karen-W]

If USFS believes that both Naumov and Torgashev would come in last in the FS, does it make sense not to have either of them skate? Split the women. Assign Ilia to the FS. Ilia can just go out and take a bow in the FS, especially if the U.S. has somehow managed to lock up the win by then. (Men's FS is the last segment of the TE.) Part of me likes this because I think that Alysa, Amber, and Isabeau all have done so much more to earn a spot in the TE than either Max or Andrew. But, I doubt Ilia would agree to this or that USFS would put him in that position.

If the USFS wants to win the TE gold then the only option is for Ilia or ChoBat to do both segments of the TE, IMO.

Ilia's two lowest scoring FS this season apart from Nats - Lombardia & GPdF - where he took it easy in the FS he scored 197.78 and 215.78; compared to Sato whose highest FS score is 194.02 from the GPF.

At Lombardia his jump protocol looked like this: 4F, 3A, 4Lzq, 3Lz+1Eu+3S, 4T, 4S+3A+SEQ (ETA - his 4T had a sketchy landing, so he couldn't add the 3T on and lost points there)

By GPdF, he upped his jump content to the following: 4F, 3A, 4Lz, 3Lo, 4Lz+1Eu+3F, 4T+3T, 4S+3A+SEQ

The way I see it, he does a jump layout similar to either Lombardia or Nats, he is going to easily win the FS, but I don't know how much that would tire him out for the Men's event and there is only 1 rest day separating the TE Men's FS and the Men's SP.

I'm not sure I think there's much good use in splitting the women - as @PRlady has pointed out, doing so leaves one of them (likely Levito) out in the cold and if the USFS decides they're all in on the TE gold and both Ilia & ChoBat agree to do both segments, then I think taking the ROC '22 approach where they don't split any disciplines is the wiser approach. That way none of the skaters/couples left out is in a position to feel like they were purposefully excluded.

What's clear to me, in running the numbers, is the USA's weak links are Pairs (both segments) and the 2nd man. Nine months ago, when Brown seemed like an almost certain lock for the team and you were looking at him being able to deliver a solid program that finished no worse than 3rd in the FS, it was still going to be tight, but doable for the USA to split men & dance with no repercussions. Now, with the choices being Torgashev or Naumov... Either settle for silver or go for broke and split nothing.

 

[Allskate]

I'm not sure I think there's much good use in splitting the women - as @PRlady has pointed out, doing so leaves one of them (likely Levito) out in the cold and if the USFS decides they're all in on the TE gold and both Ilia & ChoBat agree to do both segments, then I think taking the ROC '22 approach where they don't split any disciplines is the wiser approach. That way none of the skaters/couples left out is in a position to feel like they were purposefully excluded.

If Ilia and C&B are willing to do both segments, then that would be great. But, I'm not convinced that will happen.

If Ilia and C&B don't split, I don't see how Amber would feel better having Alysa do both segments even if she has Isabeau for company. In fact, it might make her feel worse about being left out if there's no need to have one woman do both segments. I think she definitely would feel "purposefully excluded." At least with dance and the men splitting, Amber could understand the World Champion and GP Finalist being given the one women's spot. I think Isabeau is going to feel left out either way, but I would hope that she would be happy for Alysa and Amber. (Maybe they can give Isabeau WTT as a small consolation. It's not an Olympic team event or medal, but at least it would be a token of appreciation and respect for all that she has accomplished.)

As an Isabeau fan, I would feel bad for her, but I would understand. As someone who is also an Amber fan, I would feel worse if both of them were excluded. Plus, I would bet that Alysa would like to split. She likes the other two women, and it would be less demanding on her.

 

[Karen-W]

If Ilia and C&B are willing to do both segments, then that would be great. But, I'm not convinced that will happen.

If Ilia and C&B don't split, I don't see how Amber would feel better having Alysa do both segments even if she has Isabeau for company. In fact, it might make her feel worse about being left out if there's no need to have one woman do both segments. I think she definitely would feel "purposefully excluded." At least with dance and the men splitting, Amber could understand the World Champion and GP Finalist being given the one women's spot. I think Isabeau is going to feel left out either way, but I would hope that she would be happy for Alysa and Amber. (Maybe they can give Isabeau WTT as a small consolation. It's not an Olympic team event or medal, but at least it would be a token of appreciation and respect for all that she has accomplished.)

As an Isabeau fan, I would feel bad for her, but I would understand. As someone who is also an Amber fan, I would feel worse if both of them were excluded. Plus, I would bet that Alysa would like to split. She likes the other two women, and it would be less demanding on her.

No WTT this season, so if Isabeau is left out, she doesn't get any consolation prize.

I can certainly see the rationale for using Amber and splitting the women seeing as she has qualified for the GPF both this season and last, but then you're stuck with excluding ZingKol who ALSO qualified for the GPF this season. That's why I think the ROC approach from 2022 where they just go with the 3 GPF winners and then the top-ranked US pairs team is perhaps the least hurtful to everyone who isn't used for the TE if both Ilia & ChoBat are willing to compete in both segments.

 

[Allskate]

No WTT this season, so if Isabeau is left out, she doesn't get any consolation prize.

Yes, but they could offer her it for next season. And even disregarding this, I don't see how it makes sense to leave out Amber just to give Isabeau company in her disappointment.

I can certainly see the rationale for using Amber and splitting the women seeing as she has qualified for the GPF both this season and last, but then you're stuck with excluding ZingKol who ALSO qualified for the GPF this season.

First, I thought a premise of this particular discussion was that C&B were not splitting.

Second, if you're going to base the decision on level of success, simply saying that they both qualified for the GP Final this season is ignoring a LOT. Amber and ZingKol definitely are not equivalent. ZingKol do not have Amber's record of success in comparison to Amber or in terms of how they compare to C&B versus Amber compared to Alysa. They are not the three time or current national champions. They have not won the GP Final before. They also did not place as well as Amber at this season's GP Final. They have never defeated C&B. They have never even competed at Worlds.

And, if ZingKol are competing at Four Continents, they could use more of a break before the individual event.