2025-26 Grand Prix Assignments Discussion

[haribobo]

Now that Euros is completed, I went through the SB and WS to figure out what we can expect on the Grand Prix.

MEN- at or very close to top 24 SB or WS, assigned last year and likely to be assigned again-

Malinin, Yuma, Sato, Aymoz, Kao, Shaidorov
Fa, Britschgi, Grassl, Sota, Memola, Egadze,
Cha, Vasiljevs, Rizzo, Torgashev, Frangipani, Litvintsev
Tomono, Luc Economides, A Selevko, Shimada, Samoilov, Jason Brown, Pitot

ADD based on current SB
Tsuboi, Broussard, M. Selevko, Daiwei Dai

REMOVE
2 assignment skaters possibly going down to 1- Camden Pulkinen, Wesley Chiu, Mark Gorodnitsky (may get none)

1 assignment skaters at the mercy of their host Feds or 4CC/Worlds result where applicable (many of these are intermingled on SB along with the below "next in line" skaters - Gogolev (possibly 0) Rakic, Sadovsky, Yudong Chen, Yoshioka (possibly 0), Maxim Naumov (should be in contention for SA at least), Tomoki Hiwatashi

1 assignment skaters from last year with no host fed, could lose a spot altogether - Carrillo (low SB), H Kim, Juheon Lim

Next in line by SB and not already listed above - Jimmy Ma, Corey Circelli, Boyang Jin, Jacob Sanchez, Lev Vinokur, Adam Hagara, Andreas Nordeback, Patrick Blackwell, Jaekeun Lee

 

[kwanfan1818]

There are still 4C's, Worlds, with Worlds inflation, and World Team Trophy, which also counts to the SB list. (I don't think it should, but it does.)

That could move Sadovsky, Rakic, Hiwatashi. H. Kim, Chen, S. Lee, and Carillo up at 4T's, and, if Sadovsky is chosen for Worlds and/or STT, a couple of other chances.

Vinokur, Hagara, and Nordeback have a shot at Worlds (Jr and/or Sr for Hagara). Juniors can be spoilers on the list for GP selection, even if they remain junior.

 

[haribobo]

WOMEN- at or very close to top 24 SB or WS, assigned last year and likely to be assigned again-

Kaori, Amber, Elyce, Chiba, Chaeyeon, Petrokina
Higuchi, Rion, Everhardt, Yoshida, Rino, Gubanova
Gutmann, Levito, Liu, Watanabe, Repond, Aoki
Pinzarrone, Bradie, Kaiser, Schizas, Loena, Haein
Kurakova, Mihara, Schild, Ziegler (if healthy)

ADD based on current SB
Ami Nakai, Jia Shin, Anna Pezzetta

REMOVE
2 assignment skaters possibly going down to 1, but in contention based on SB list- Olga Mikutina, Lea Serna, Seoyeong Wi, Lindsay Thorngren

2 assignment skaters likely going to 0 based on current SB- Yelim Kim, Minchae Kim

1 assignment skaters at the mercy of their host Feds or 4CC/Worlds result where applicable (many of these are intermingled on SB along with the below "next in line" skaters -Ahsun, Jyrkinen (both have a high enough SB to be on top 10/15 of replacement list)

1 assignment skaters, host fed, lower on SB list- Dupuis, Ruiter, X An, H Chen, Y Zhu, Lisko, Pelkonen, Mayindu

1 assignment skaters from last year with no host fed, could lose a spot altogether - Stepcenko

Next in line by SB and not already listed above - Sofia Samodelkina, Katherine Medland Spence, Uliana Shiryaeva, Mariia Seniuk, Julia Sauter, Seoyoung Kim, Fee Ann Landry, Marina Piredda, Alexandra Feigin, Kristen Spours

Should be in contention for SA- Starr Andrews, Josephine Lee

Forgot that Sherry Zhang will still be too young for 1 more season...

 

[haribobo]

PAIRS- at or very close to top 24 SB or WS, assigned last year and likely to be assigned again-

Hase/Volodin, Miura/Kihara, Metelkina/Berulava, Conti/Macii, Stellato/Deschamps, Kam/O'Shea
Pavlova/Sviatchenko, Ghilardi/Ambrosini, Efimova/Mitrofanov, Geinish/Chigirev, Pereira/Michaud, Hocke/Kunkel
Golubeva/Giotopoulos-Moore, Chtchetinina/Wozniak, Vaipan-Law/Digby, Laurin/Ethier, Danilova/Tsiba, Chan/Howe
McBeath/Parkman, Nagaoka/Moriguchi, Beccari/Guarise, Plazas/Fernandez

ADD based on current SB
Zhang/Huang, Bombardier/Mimar, Shin/Nagy, Vouillamoz/Bouvart

REMOVE 1 SPOT
2 assignment skaters possibly going down to 1, but in contention based on SB list- Kovalev/Kovalev, Vaananen/Clerici

POSSIBLE 1 SPOT
1 assignment skaters, may get 1 or 2, depending on host spots from feds or 4CC/Jr/Worlds result where applicable (many of these are intermingled on SB along with the below "next in line" skaters -Faula/Belle, Williams/Lewer

1 assignment skaters, host fed, may not get one- lower on SB list than the "next in line" skaters- Martins/Bedard, Wang/Zhu

Next in line by SB and not already listed above - Holichenko/Darenskyi, Roscher/Schuster, Desrochers/Thrasher, Schaller/Mayr, Gamez/Korovin, Flores/Wang

 

[haribobo]

DANCE- at or very close to top 24 SB or WS, assigned last year and likely to be assigned again-

Chock/Bates, Guignard/Fabbri, Gilles/Poirier, Fear/Gibson, Lopareva/Brissaud, Turkkila/Versluis
Lajoie/Lagha, Davis/Smolkin, Smart/Dieck, Carreira/Ponomarenko, Reed/Ambrulevicius, Zingas/Kolesnik
Orihara/Pirinen, Bratti/Somerville, Taschlerova/Taschler, Demougeot/Le Mercier, Green/Parsons, Mrazkova/Mrazek
Brown/Brown, JVR/Steffan, Lim/Quan, Fabbri/Ayer, Pate/Bye, Neset/Markelov

ADD based on current SB/WS
Fradji/Fourneaux, Bekker/Hernandez

REMOVE 1 SPOT
2 assignment skaters possibly going down to 1, but in contention based on SB list- Lauriault/LeGac
--------------
Next in line by SB and not already listed above - Harris/Chan, Morozov/Chen, Ignateva/Szemko, Lagouge/Caffa, Reitan/Majorov, Yoshida/Morita

 

[Karen-W]

Pairs - There is no way that Wang/Zhu lose their 1 CoC host spot unless they split. I also think, whether we like it or not, that both the FFSG and the Finnish fed don't horsetrade a 2nd assignment for Les Kovs and VaanCler.

Additionally, if FlorWang pull off another Jr Worlds medal, they'll get 1 GP assignment, same as WilLew got this season.

Men - if Sanchez wins or medals at Jr Worlds, he will get 2 GP assignments, I think - one may be the 2nd SkAm spot and a 3rd elsewhere, but he'll start off with 2.

Dance - Tali/Lafornara & WolfTsar will likely get 2 based on their JGPF & likely Jr Worlds results; and GrimmSky will get 1 based on what the GP host fed did last year to reward them for their Jr Worlds bronze.

 

[haribobo]

MEN update after 4CC

Jimmy Ma has leapt into the 2 assignments range.

Hyungyeom Kim jumped up some on the SB list.

Yudong and Chiu have possibly lost their last shot at a SB and remain quite far down on SB list (maybe WTT could still factor)

Current top 10 alternate range list SB - Circelli, B Jin, Sanchez, Vinokur, Hagara, Nordeback, Camden, Tomoki, H Kim, Sadovsky

 

[Karen-W]

MEN update after 4CC

Jimmy Ma has leapt into the 2 assignments range.

Hyungyeom Kim jumped up some on the SB list.

Yudong and Chiu have possibly lost their last shot at a SB and remain quite far down on SB list (maybe WTT could still factor)

Current top 10 alternate range list SB - Circelli, B Jin, Sanchez, Vinokur, Hagara, Nordeback, Camden, Tomoki, H Kim, Sadovsky

I fully expect Jacob to get 2 - JGPF champion should net him 1 and the USFS will probably give him SkAm if he doesn't get a 2nd.

 

[haribobo]

Camden moving up to 20 in WS could get him 2 spots, and I think Pitot is the most likely to go down to 1 as a result.

 

[Karen-W]

Camden moving up to 20 in WS could get him 2 spots, and I think Pitot is the most likely to go down to 1 as a result.

Well, don't forget, all of the WS points get reset prior to the GP Host Commission meeting to make the initial assignments. All of Camden's 2022-23 points will drop off and his 2023-24 points will be reduced to 70%. We need to wait until after Worlds to see where everyone really is with regard to the WS Top 24.

 

[haribobo]

Not much change to women based on 4CC, I think Sara-Maude Dupuis' SB will definitely give her more of a shot...

Current next 10 SB after the two spots skaters-

Sofia Samodelkina, Ahsun Yun, Katherine Medland Spence, Lea Serna, Lindsay Thorngren, Uliana Shiryaeva, Sara-Maude Dupuis, Seoyeong Wi, Mariia Seniuk, Julia Sauter

 

[haribobo]

Iida Karhunen slots into the women's SB list behind Dupuis. Kent/Laliberte-Laurent slot in behind Flores/Wang. Tali/Lafornara go right below Lauriault/Legac who are below Harris/Chan. Shunsuke Nakamura is in range on the men's alternate list and Adam Hagara vaults to the top of the alt list.

 

[haribobo]

Alternate-range List (some with high WS may end up with spots anyway)

WOMEN
Sofia Samodelkina
Jia Shin
Livia Kaiser
Ahsun Yun
Anna Pezzetta
Haein Lee (WS also high)
Katherine Medland Spence
Lea Serna
Lindsay Thorngren
Uliana Shiryaeva
Sara-Maude Dupuis
Iida Karhunen
Seoyeong Wi
Mariia Seniuk
Julia Sauter

MEN
Adam Hagara (high WS)
Koshiro Shimada
Vladimir Samoilov
Corey Circelli
Boyang Jin
Jacob Sanchez
Francois Pitot
Jason Brown
Lev Vinokur
Andreas Nordeback
Camden Pulkinen (high WS)
Tomoki Hiwatashi
Hyungyeom Kim
Shunsuke Nakamura
Roman Sadovsky

PAIRS

Kovalev/Kovalev (high WS)
Vaananen/Clerici (high WS)
Holichenko/Darenskyi
Roscher/Schuster
Desrochers/Thrasher
Schaller/Mayr
Gamez/Korovin
Flores/Wang (high WS)
Kent/Laliberte-Laurent
Faula/Belle
Crafoord/Crafoord
Williams/Lewer
Izzo/Maierhofer


DANCE
Harris/Chan
Neset/Markelov (high WS)
Lauriault/Legac (high WS)
Tali/Lafornara
Ignateva/Szemko
Lagouge/Caffa
Reitan/Majorov
Yoshida/Morita
Soucisse/Firus
Pucherova/Lysak
Manni/Roethlisberger
Val/Kazimov
Larson/Kapran
Wolfkostin/Tsarevski

 

[Karen-W]

Les Kovs and VaanCler will get two GPs in all likelihood. The FFSG and Finnish feds will horse trade one of their host spots with another GP host fed to guarantee their one decent senior pairs team two GPs. That's also presuming that neither climbs into the SB Top 24 to guarantee 1 assignment.

WolfTsar will get the NesMark treatment next season - SkAm host assignment & 1 GP elsewhere. TaLafor will get two GPs, just like the Mrazkovi did as reigning JWC in 2023.

Jia Shin will also get two GPs - four-time reigning JWC silver medalist is going to guarantee it. Adam Hagara has a chance to improve his SB and if he climbs into the Top 24, then I'd bet he gets two right out of the gate, seeing as he's a two-time reigning JWC bronze medalist. Sanchez will also get two due his JGPF win & the USFS being a GP host.

The rest, it's too soon to say for certain since we still have Worlds & WTT that will affect the SB lists.

 

[Skateforlive]

Curious does Bombardier/Mimat will get 2 Grand Prix you think? I’m so excited to see what are they going to do next season

 

[Karen-W]

Curious does Bombardier/Mimat will get 2 Grand Prix you think? I’m so excited to see what are they going to do next season

Probably not. They're at #22 on the SB list and may drop out of the Top 24 by the time we're past Worlds & WTT. Pairs spots are the hardest to come by, so I think a SCI host spot is the best they can hope for on the initial assignments list. They may wind up with 2, though, in the end, since they WILL be pretty high on the Alternates list and there have been 8-12 withdrawals in pairs from the initial assignments to the final competitors the past two seasons.

 

[kwanfan1818]

At WTT, Les Kovs may get scores so high you'd think they were the second coming of Savchenko/Massot.

Because, WTT.

 

[Karen-W]

At WTT, Les Kovs may get scores so high you'd think they were the second coming of Savchenko/Massot.

Because, WTT.

It's a shame juniors aren't allowed to compete at WTT. There's a world in which I live where Telemaque/Coulon would get the WTT assignment over Les Kovs.

 

[Karen-W]

Soooooooo... Pairs!

Grand Prix Seeded Teams 1-6
Miura/Kihara
Hase/Volodin
Conti/Macii
Metelkina/Berulava
Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps
Efimova/Mitrofanov

Grand Prix Invited Teams 7-10
Kam/O'Shea
Pavlova/Sviatchenko
Golubeva/Giotopoulos Moore
Geynish/Chigirev

We still have WTT to go, but here is the SB Top 24 (excluding the Seeded/Invited Teams listed above):
8 - Pereira/Michaud
10 - Ghilardi/Ambrosini
12 - Hocke/Kunkel
14 - Chtchetinina/Wozniak
15 - Vaipan-Law/Digby
16 - Laurin/Ethier
17 - Danilova/Tsiba
18 - Chan/Howe
19 - Zhang/Huang
20 - Nagaoka/Moriguchi
21 - McBeath/Parkman
22 - Bombardier/Mimar
23 - Shin/Nagy
24 - Vouillamoz/Bouvart

WS Top 24 once the 2022-23 scores are removed & the 2023-24 scores are reduced to 70% (excluding the Seeded/Invited Teams listed above):
6 - Ghilardi/Ambrosini
9 - Pereira/Michaud
10 - Hocke/Kunkel
11 - Vaipan-Law/Digby
12 - Chtchetinina/Wozniak
13 - Danilova/Tsiba
15 - Kovalev/Kovalev
16 - Laurin/Ethier
18 - Flores/Wang (if they were smart, they'd stay junior)
19 - Vaananen/Clerici
20 - Beccari/Guarise
21 - Telemaque/Coulon (age-ineligible)
23 - Holichenko/Darenskyi
24 - Nagaoka/Moriguchi

USFS really screwed Chan/Howe by not sending them to 4CCs - if they'd gotten the 293 points that ShiNagy got for coming in dead last (and they wouldn't have come in dead last with GamKor there), they'd have been 22nd on the WS list.

Jr Worlds Medalists - Not guaranteed 1, but added to the pool & usually given 1 on the Initial Assignments (excluding Seeded/Invited Teams):
Holichenko/Darenskyi
Ariano Kent/Laliberte Laurent (if they were smart, they'd stay junior, especially with Canada only having 2 spots for the Olys)

 

[Skateforlive]

Soooooooo... Pairs!

Grand Prix Seeded Teams 1-6
Miura/Kihara
Hase/Volodin
Conti/Macii
Metelkina/Berulava
Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps
Efimova/Mitrofanov

Grand Prix Invited Teams 7-10
Kam/O'Shea
Pavlova/Sviatchenko
Golubeva/Giotopoulos Moore
Geynish/Chigirev

We still have WTT to go, but here is the SB Top 24 (excluding the Seeded/Invited Teams listed above):
8 - Pereira/Michaud
10 - Ghilardi/Ambrosini
12 - Hocke/Kunkel
14 - Chtchetinina/Wozniak
15 - Vaipan-Law/Digby
16 - Laurin/Ethier
17 - Danilova/Tsiba
18 - Chan/Howe
19 - Zhang/Huang
20 - Nagaoka/Moriguchi
21 - McBeath/Parkman
22 - Bombardier/Mimar
23 - Shin/Nagy
24 - Vouillamoz/Bouvart

WS Top 24 once the 2022-23 scores are removed & the 2023-24 scores are reduced to 70% (excluding the Seeded/Invited Teams listed above):
6 - Ghilardi/Ambrosini
9 - Pereira/Michaud
10 - Hocke/Kunkel
11 - Vaipan-Law/Digby
12 - Chtchetinina/Wozniak
13 - Danilova/Tsiba
15 - Kovalev/Kovalev
16 - Laurin/Ethier
18 - Flores/Wang (if they were smart, they'd stay junior)
19 - Vaananen/Clerici
20 - Beccari/Guarise
21 - Telemaque/Coulon (age-ineligible)
23 - Holichenko/Darenskyi
24 - Nagaoka/Moriguchi

USFS really screwed Chan/Howe by not sending them to 4CCs - if they'd gotten the 293 points that ShiNagy got for coming in dead last (and they wouldn't have come in dead last with GamKor there), they'd have been 22nd on the WS list.

Jr Worlds Medalists - Not guaranteed 1, but added to the pool & usually given 1 on the Initial Assignments (excluding Seeded/Invited Teams):
Holichenko/Darenskyi
Ariano Kent/Laliberte Laurent (if they were smart, they'd stay junior, especially with Canada only having 2 spots for the Olys)

So the one in top 24 season best score should get at least one GP ?

 

[Karen-W]

So the one in top 24 season best score should get at least one GP ?

Yes, teams in the SB top 24 are guaranteed 1 GP, teams in the WS top 24 are also guaranteed 1 GP - there are SOOOO many teams between those two lists that I think the only teams who are likely to get 2 GPs apart from the 10 guaranteed by their Worlds results are those with a Host GP fed, and even then, that's not going to get more than a host GP for some of them.

There are only 48 pairs spots - 20 are allocated to the Worlds 2025 Top 10.

Of the remaining 28 spots -

8 teams who are in both the WS & SB Top 24:
Ghilardi/Ambrosini 6/10
Pereira/Michaud 9/8
Hocke/Kunkel 10/12
Vaipan-Law/Digby 11/15
Chtchetinina/Wozniak 12/14
Danilova/Tsiba 13/17
Laurin/Ethier 16/16
Nagaoka/Moriguchi 24/20

6 teams who are in the SB Top 24:
Chan/Howe 18
Zhang/Huang 19 *JGPF Champions
McBeath/Parkman 21
Bombardier/Mimar 22
Shin/Nagy 23
Vouillamoz/Bouvart 24

5 age-eligible teams who are in the WS Top 24:
Kovalev/Kovalev 15
Flores/Wang 18 (they would be wise to do the JGP next season after the disappointing season they had this year)
Vaananen/Clerici 19
Beccari/Guarise 20
Holichenko/Darenskyi 23 *JWC Silver Medalists

Once those 18 spots are awarded, that leaves 10 spots, of which I expect 8 will be Host Spots -
SkAm - USFS will probably leave 2 spots TBD & let the 3 in the SB Top 24 duke it out for a 2nd GP, plus hope some can move up the Alternates list
CoC - CFSA will probably assign Sui/Li outright and hold 1 spot TBD - I think HuaZha will get some extra consideration here by virtue of their JGPF title, even though Jr Worlds was rough, and get an initial GP assignment elsewhere, with one of the CoC spots likely winding up as their 2nd GP assignment.
SCI - I think Skate Can will hold 1 spot TBD - they'll probably outright assign PerMich to one of their host spots to get them a 2nd GP on the initial list, then they'll let LaurEth & BoMim fight for the last spot
NHK - JSF will have to assign NagaMori here & hope they can pick up a 2nd GP elsewhere - not making the FS at Worlds doesn't help their cause; I also don't think the JSF is going to be able to hold onto any TBD spots - if they're smart, they'll send Shimizu/Honda back to the JGP circuit next season since they really aren't ready for GP primetime
GPdF - FFSG will have to bite the bullet & assign Les Kovs here for their initial assignment - again, not making the FS at Worlds doesn't help their cause; Faula/Belle will also get a GPdF host spot, despite being way down at #34 on the SB list; and I think the FFSG will do their best to hold onto a TBD spot b/c they do have at least one other senior team in development; and there's no way Ehrhard/Pellegris aren't also sent back to the JGP while they're still age-eligible
Finlandia - Finnish Fed is in the same boat with VaanCler as the JSF & FFSG are, though at least VaanCler made the FS at Worlds, but there's no way another host fed will justify giving them a spot elsewhere as an initial assignment, but the Finnish Fed also won't hold onto any spots

If my projection is accurate, that will leave just 2 spots for teams hoping for 2 assignments initially - Take your pick who you think those lucky teams will be...

I'd probably put my money on BecGuar picking up a 2nd out of the gate, given her injury took them out of everything apart from Shanghai Trophy this season, and their status as former Euro Champs. They'll also be the highest on the alternates list by a wide margin.

The other team who I think will pick up a 2nd out of the gate is VLDigs - yes, they're further down the SB list than teams like GhiAmbro & HocKun, but both of those teams finished behind VLDigs at both Worlds & Euros, which I think is going to matter; but it may be they wind up screwed and Sui/Li get two right away.

I do think it is possible that both the CFSA & FFSG will wind up throwing one of their host TBD spots back in the pool, but with Sui/Li around & at least one other senior French team domestically, both feds will want to at least see how these teams develop in the next 6 months before deciding anything.

It really sucks that there are only 48 spots for Pairs on the GP because there are good teams who will lose out on a 2nd GP in the critical Olympic season.

 

[rinettoii]

Now that the women's event at Worlds 2025 is over, here are some projected GP assignments. Despite WTT not happening yet, I don't believe any new SBs earned there would affect allocation substantively.

This prediction hinges on the assumption that

• those who have been banned from competing will still be banned in 2025-26 and
• that no one is unexpectedly sitting out/retiring and
• ISU uses the same rules they’ve historically used for GP spot allocation.

Top 12 from Worlds guaranteed 2 each:
Liu - USA
Sakamoto - JPN
Chiba - JPN
Levito - USA
Glenn - USA
Higuchi - JPN
Pinzarrone - BEL
Petrokina - EST
Lee - KOR
Kim - KOR
Schizas - CAN
Repond - SUI

Comeback clause:
You - KOR

Based on previous applications of this clause, You is likely to only end up with 1 GP spot at initial allocation because KOR is not a GP host this season. I want to point out that the comeback clause will not apply to Hendrickx because she competed at the Shanghai Trophy this season. Unfortunately, she will have also fallen out of the top 24 WS, which means she would get 0 GP spots at initial allocation. This covers 26/72 spots.

Here is the updated World Standings list after the 2022/23 season's scores are dropped and the 2023/24 seasons's scores are multiplied by 0.7:

Kaori SAKAMOTO

Isabeau LEVITO

Chaeyeon KIM

Amber GLENN

Mone CHIBA

Nina PINZARRONE

Anastasiia GUBANOVA

Hana YOSHIDA

Niina PETROKINA

Alysa LIU

Kimmy REPOND

Elyce LIN-GRACEY

Lara Naki GUTMANN

Madeline SCHIZAS

Rinka WATANABE

Bradie TENNELL

Lorine SCHILD

Sarah EVERHARDT

Wakaba HIGUCHI

Mao SHIMADA

Ekaterina KURAKOVA

Haein LEE

Anna PEZZETTA

Rion SUMIYOSHI

Not top 12 at Worlds, Top 24 in updated World Standings AND Top 24 in Season’s Best (will likely get 2 each):
Gubanova - GEO
Yoshida - JPN
Lin-Gracey - USA
Gutmann - ITA
Watanabe - JPN
Tennell - USA
Everhardt - USA
Sumiyoshi - JPN

This now covers 42/72 spots.

Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in updated World Standings (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Schild - FRA (39th on SB list --> 2 spots)
Kurakova - POL
Pezzetta - ITA (36th on SB list --> 2 spots)

Shimada (JPN) is not age-eligible to compete senior in 2024-25.

Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in Season’s Best (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Nakai - JPN (11th on SB list --> 2 spots)
Matsuike - JPN (17th on SB list --> 2 spots)

Medallist at JWC
Shin - KOR (The language in the document states that medallists are included in the process. Shin would be able to get one in her own right through her SB, but it's unclear whether this medal would help her get an additional one.)

This now covers 52 or 53/72 spots.

These spots are left open to host countries’ discretion:
TBD - USA (likely saving 1 spots)
TBD - CHN (likely saving 3 spots for Zhu, An, and Chen)
TBD - CAN (likely saving 1 spot for Dupuis and 1 spot for someone else; Medland Spence and Shiryaeva are able to get spots in their own right with their SB)
TBD - JPN (likely saving 1 spot)
TBD - FRA (likely saving 1 spot for Serna and 1 spot for someone else; could be another 1 if Schild gets assigned somewhere else)
TBD - FIN (likely saving 3 spots)

This now covers 64 or 66/72 spots.

The theoretically 6-8 remaining spots are filled in going down the SB list:
Aoki - JPN (After this JPN has maxed out its spots)
Samodelkina - KAZ
Kaiser - SUI
Yun - KOR
Medland Spence - CAN
Serna - FAR
Thorngren - USA
Shiryaeva - CAN

Please leave any questions you have about my methodology. I'm no expert by any means, but I thought it would be fun to get a preview of the landscape for the next Grand Prix season.

 

[Karen-W]

• Schild will get 2 - FFSG will use one of their host spots on her at GPdF and she'll get a 2nd one elsewhere.
• Kurakova will get just 1 and that's it
• Pezzetta may or may not get 2 - she doesn't have a host fed to broker for her, for reference, last season Minchae Kim was SB 34 and didn't get any until after the withdrawals of Ava Ziegler, Haein Lee & Young You
• Nakai and Matsuike will get 2 - again, JSF is a host fed, and they're so high up on the SB list, there's no way they'll only get 1
• Shin may or may not get 2 - she's 29 on the SB, which is a little low, but I think the strength of coming in as the 4-time reigning Jr World Silver Medalist is enough to get her 2

• SkAm - yes, USFS will have 1 TBD spot
• COC - Zhu may be assigned outright since she's SB 71; An & Chen will be assigned as host TBD spots later in the fall after they prove they're competition ready.
• SCI - 2 host spots - there's no way that Medland Spence or Shiryaeva are getting an initial GP assignment - for reference, last season Elyce Lin Gracey was SB 44 & Olga Mikutina was SB 46 and neither of them had any GP assignments initially. Medland Spence is SB 41 and Shiryaeva is SB 48, while Dupuis is SB 50. I do think it's likely that Dupuis will get a host spot on the initial assignments, but the other two will have to fight for the other TBD spot.
• GPdF - FFSG will assign Schild & Serna, and hold 1 TBD - which may get tossed back if no one really steps up among their senior women
• NHK - yes, JSF will have 1 TBD spot
• Finlandia - Ceder will be assigned as she's SB 75, same with Jyrkinen who is SB 63, 1 spot will be left for the rest of their women to fight for

• Samodelkina, Kaiser and Yun will probably get 2 each - they're sitting at SB 28, SB 30, & SB 35 respectively
• no way to Medland Spence, Serna, Thorngren or Shiryaeva get any GPs on the initial assignments list - they're way too far down to merit that.

 

[rinettoii]

• Schild will get 2 - FFSG will use one of their host spots on her at GPdF and she'll get a 2nd one elsewhere.
• Kurakova will get just 1 and that's it
• Pezzetta may or may not get 2 - she doesn't have a host fed to broker for her, for reference, last season Minchae Kim was SB 34 and didn't get any until after the withdrawals of Ava Ziegler, Haein Lee & Young You
• Nakai and Matsuike will get 2 - again, JSF is a host fed, and they're so high up on the SB list, there's no way they'll only get 1
• Shin may or may not get 2 - she's 29 on the SB, which is a little low, but I think the strength of coming in as the 4-time reigning Jr World Silver Medalist is enough to get her 2

For these points, I made notes where a skater who is guaranteed 1 spot and will get 2 (and likewise for 1 --> 1). They're in parentheses next to the skater.

• SCI - 2 host spots - there's no way that Medland Spence or Shiryaeva are getting an initial GP assignment - for reference, last season Elyce Lin Gracey was SB 44 & Olga Mikutina was SB 46 and neither of them had any GP assignments initially. Medland Spence is SB 41 and Shiryaeva is SB 48, while Dupuis is SB 50. I do think it's likely that Dupuis will get a host spot on the initial assignments, but the other two will have to fight for the other TBD spot.
• Samodelkina, Kaiser and Yun will probably get 2 each - they're sitting at SB 28, SB 30, & SB 35 respectively

For this point, I don't know how reliable it is to go by where the allocation stops in the previous year because of the age limit rule. There are a lot of skaters who won't be senior-eligible next season but score very highly, which makes it plausible that they will reach down further into the SB list to fill spots.

Based on analyzing how assignments were doled out previously, Samodelkina, Kaiser, and Yun will likely initially end up with 1. Even though their SBs are relatively high and close to that threshold of 24, the below 24 SB pool is the last group organizers are pulling from.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Now that the women's event at Worlds 2025 is over, here are some projected GP assignments. Despite WTT not happening yet, I don't believe any new SBs earned there would affect allocation substantively.

This prediction hinges on the assumption that

• those who have been banned from competing will still be banned in 2025-26 and
• that no one is unexpectedly sitting out/retiring and
• ISU uses the same rules they’ve historically used for GP spot allocation.

Top 12 from Worlds guaranteed 2 each:
Liu - USA
Sakamoto - JPN
Chiba - JPN
Levito - USA
Glenn - USA
Higuchi - JPN
Pinzarrone - BEL
Petrokina - EST
Lee - KOR
Kim - KOR
Schizas - CAN
Repond - SUI

Comeback clause:
You - KOR

Based on previous applications of this clause, You is likely to only end up with 1 GP spot at initial allocation because KOR is not a GP host this season. I want to point out that the comeback clause will not apply to Hendrickx because she competed at the Shanghai Trophy this season. Unfortunately, she will have also fallen out of the top 24 WS, which means she would get 0 GP spots at initial allocation. This covers 26/72 spots.

Here is the updated World Standings list after the 2022/23 season's scores are dropped and the 2023/24 seasons's scores are multiplied by 0.7:

Kaori SAKAMOTO

Isabeau LEVITO

Chaeyeon KIM

Amber GLENN

Mone CHIBA

Nina PINZARRONE

Anastasiia GUBANOVA

Hana YOSHIDA

Niina PETROKINA

Alysa LIU

Kimmy REPOND

Elyce LIN-GRACEY

Lara Naki GUTMANN

Madeline SCHIZAS

Rinka WATANABE

Bradie TENNELL

Lorine SCHILD

Sarah EVERHARDT

Wakaba HIGUCHI

Mao SHIMADA

Ekaterina KURAKOVA

Haein LEE

Anna PEZZETTA

Rion SUMIYOSHI

Not top 12 at Worlds, Top 24 in updated World Standings AND Top 24 in Season’s Best (will likely get 2 each):
Gubanova - GEO
Yoshida - JPN
Lin-Gracey - USA
Gutmann - ITA
Watanabe - JPN
Tennell - USA
Everhardt - USA
Sumiyoshi - JPN

This now covers 42/72 spots.

Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in updated World Standings (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Schild - FRA (39th on SB list --> 2 spots)
Kurakova - POL
Pezzetta - ITA (36th on SB list --> 2 spots)

Shimada (JPN) is not age-eligible to compete senior in 2024-25.

Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in Season’s Best (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Nakai - JPN (11th on SB list --> 2 spots)
Matsuike - JPN (17th on SB list --> 2 spots)

Medallist at JWC
Shin - KOR (The language in the document states that medallists are included in the process. Shin would be able to get one in her own right through her SB, but it's unclear whether this medal would help her get an additional one.)

This now covers 52 or 53/72 spots.

These spots are left open to host countries’ discretion:
TBD - USA (likely saving 1 spots)
TBD - CHN (likely saving 3 spots for Zhu, An, and Chen)
TBD - CAN (likely saving 1 spot for Dupuis and 1 spot for someone else; Medland Spence and Shiryaeva are able to get spots in their own right with their SB)
TBD - JPN (likely saving 1 spot)
TBD - FRA (likely saving 1 spot for Serna and 1 spot for someone else; could be another 1 if Schild gets assigned somewhere else)
TBD - FIN (likely saving 3 spots)

This now covers 64 or 66/72 spots.

The theoretically 6-8 remaining spots are filled in going down the SB list:
Aoki - JPN (After this JPN has maxed out its spots)
Samodelkina - KAZ
Kaiser - SUI
Yun - KOR
Medland Spence - CAN
Serna - FAR
Thorngren - USA
Shiryaeva - CAN

Please leave any questions you have about my methodology. I'm no expert by any means, but I thought it would be fun to get a preview of the landscape for the next Grand Prix season.

No Loena….

 

[Karen-W]

For these points, I made notes where a skater who is guaranteed 1 spot and will get 2 (and likewise for 1 --> 1). They're in parentheses next to the skater.


For this point, I don't know how reliable it is to go by where the allocation stops in the previous year because of the age limit rule. There are a lot of skaters who won't be senior-eligible next season but score very highly, which makes it plausible that they will reach down further into the SB list to fill spots.

Last year's list had a TON of skaters who were also age-ineligible -

Shimada 3
J Shin 5
Uezono 16
Nakai 20
Yuseong Kim 23
Takagi 27
Karhunen 29
Yujae Kim 36
Kwon 37
Kushida 39
S Joos 40* - age-eligible but was sent to the JGP instead
Pezzetta 42* - age-eligible but was sent to the JGP instead
Tsai 45
Brandenburg 47
Shibayama 49
Youn 50
+ 12 more skaters 51-75

Based on analyzing how assignments were doled out previously, Samodelkina, Kaiser, and Yun will likely initially end up with 1. Even though their SBs are relatively high and close to that threshold of 24, the below 24 SB pool is the last group organizers are pulling from.

This is not a correct analysis. They aren't going to drop down into the 40s to give out initial assignments unless they are to host fed skaters for their own GPs. For reference - going back to the 2023-24 GP assignments - Pinzarrone SB 26, You SB 27, Andrews SB 28, Audrey Shin SB 32 and Schizas SB 34 all got 2 assignments initially; Kurakova SB 31 was the only one who didn't get 2 initially. Further down the SB list that season - An 38, Schild 40 and Jyrkinen 46 each got 2 on the strength of their very strong junior results. Gutmann SB 42 and Serna 43 each got 1 initially - they were already established seniors and the host feds didn't give them 2 GPs. Samodelkina & Kaiser fit the rationale that got Pinzarrone, You, Andrews, Audrey Shin & Schizas two initial GPs. Yun may only get 1, simply because she failed to make the FS at Worlds. Medland Spence MAY get 1 elsewhere. I wouldn't bank on Shiryaeva getting 1 on the initial assignments list - I'd bank on Pezzetta getting 2 before Shiryaeva gets 1.

I haven't had time to fully work out my own projections list yet, but based on how GP assignments have been allocated the past few years, I'm fairly confident in my assessment of who will or won't get 2.

 

[Karen-W]

Comeback clause:
You - KOR

Based on previous applications of this clause, You is likely to only end up with 1 GP spot at initial allocation because KOR is not a GP host this season. I want to point out that the comeback clause will not apply to Hendrickx because she competed at the Shanghai Trophy this season. Unfortunately, she will have also fallen out of the top 24 WS, which means she would get 0 GP spots at initial allocation. This covers 26/72 spots.

No Loena….

I know that's what the GPF Announcement says regarding Comeback Skaters, but I wouldn't be surprised if the GP Hosts find a squishy way to get around it. Shanghai Trophy was an invitational event, which means it doesn't count toward WS points and it also doesn't count for SB - the only thing it counts for is CTES mins.

We'll see in a few months what happens.

 

[tangerine dream]

If Loena is healthy she'll probably do an early CS event. A good score there will send her to the top of the alternates list, and if it works the same way as last season, she'll have a good shot at GP assignments.

 

[Karen-W]

If Loena is healthy she'll probably do an early CS event. A good score there will send her to the top of the alternates list, and if it works the same way as last season, she'll have a good shot at GP assignments.

She would have to win an early CS to get on the Alternates list - a good score & medal alone won't put her on the Alternates list.

 

[zebobes]

• SkAm - yes, USFS will have 1 TBD spot

What is interesting is that both Amber and Isabeau are in the same seeded group, so which of them will choose (or be chosen) to skate in Skate America? Isabeau is higher up in the ranking at Worlds, but Amber won the GPF and is the national champion.

This past year, I think Amber purposefully chose to NOT skate at SA, as she also dislikes the pressure of skating at home. Considering how high the pressure was on her this week, maybe it's not a smart idea to avoid these high pressure locations. By contrast, Isabeau and Alysa seem to thrive under this kind of pressure.

I think it will be pretty difficult for any other American women to make the Olympic team, barring injury. All three have such great resumes now.