2022-23 US Pairs Discussion - Second to None!

[Karen-W]

Ten thousand tears for Smirnova/Siianytsia. They confirmed their WD on their IG about an hour ago.

Nastyia and Danil on Instagram: "It is with the deepest sadness that Nastyia and I are forced to announce our withdrawal from the 2023 U.S. Championships. Nastyia sustained an injury that will keep us from training until mid February. We were so look

Nastyia and Danil shared a post on Instagram: "It is with the deepest sadness that Nastyia and I are forced to announce our withdrawal from the 2023 U.S. Championships. Nastyia sustained an injury that will keep us from training until mid February. We were so looking forward to this event and to...

www.instagram.com

Anastasiia sustained an injury that will keep her off the ice a few weeks. They plan on petitioning for a spot on the Worlds team. Sadly, I'm not nearly as confident in their chances of that being granted as I am of Hawayek/Baker's chances.

 

[Trillian]

Anastasiia sustained an injury that will keep her off the ice a few weeks. They plan on petitioning for a spot on the Worlds team. Sadly, I'm not nearly as confident in their chances of that being granted as I am of Hawayek/Baker's chances.

I agree, although a lot will probably hinge on how Kam & O’Shea skate at nationals. Let’s assume Knierim & Frazier and Chan & Howe are a lock (I know C&H probably aren’t quite, but close enough). I could still see giving S&S consideration ahead of the Mokhovs, Plazas & Fernandez, McBeath & Bartholomay, etc., based on international results - unless one of those teams has an amazing PB-caliber performance at nationals. But K&O proved very recently that they’re capable of competing at the same level as S&S internationally. So if they skate well at nationals, I have a hard time imagining they’d get passed over.

 

[clairecloutier]

S/S will be seeking a bye based in large part on an international win (Golden Spin) that no one actually saw. That doesn’t make it any easier on the selection committee, does it?? Of course, they can and will look at protocols. Still …. (ETA: Just to be clear, it's the organizers behind that competition that I'm frustrated with--not S/S!!)

 

[Karen-W]

I agree, although a lot will probably hinge on how Kam & O’Shea skate at nationals. Let’s assume Knierim & Frazier and Chan & Howe are a lock (I know C&H probably aren’t quite, but close enough). I could still see giving S&S consideration ahead of the Mokhovs, Plazas & Fernandez, McBeath & Bartholomay, etc., based on international results - unless one of those teams has an amazing PB-caliber performance at nationals. But K&O proved very recently that they’re capable of competing at the same level as S&S internationally. So if they skate well at nationals, I have a hard time imagining they’d get passed over.

That's how I see it too.

S/S will be seeking a bye based in large part on an international win (Golden Spin) that no one actually saw. That doesn’t make it any easier on the selection committee, does it?? Of course, they can and will look at protocols. Still …. (ETA: Just to be clear, it's the organizers behind that competition that I'm frustrated with--not S/S!!)

Yeah, it's going to be tough, I think, on the Selection committee since there doesn't seem to be any video of any of the pairs from Golden Spin.

I think the other factor is the nature of Nastyia's injury. The Selection committee will have that information, and I'm sure that any provisional selection for them would involve monitoring, etc.

 

[Frau Muller]

Oh, if only Baram/Tioumentsev (Jrs) met the Sr age requirements!

Wait! They’re competing with Seniors at Nats. Would love to see them make top 3, even if they can’t go to Worlds due to her age.

 

[AYS]

It seems crazy that a single win in a senior B would be anywhere close to a body of work for being assigned to worlds, but I guess that's where we are these days. I think the 3rd place will have to be a very, very weak 3rd place for them to get the nod.

I feel terrible for S/S, because that win certainly gave them some great momentum to build on.

 

[Karen-W]

It seems crazy that a single win in a senior B would be anywhere close to a body of work for being assigned to worlds, but I guess that's where we are these days. I think the 3rd place will have to be a very, very weak 3rd place for them to get the nod.

I feel terrible for S/S, because that win certainly gave them some great momentum to build on.

Well, it does give them the 3rd highest SB score of all the US pairs teams (IceChallenge, which I've included below, wasn't a designated Challenger in Pairs), and if Chan/Howe skate like they did at the GPF...

Here's how the US Pairs teams stack up this season, scores-wise, across all of their GPs and Challengers:

1) Knierim/Frazier 213.28 GPF
2) Knierim/Frazier 205.85 MKJW Trophy
3) Knierim/Frazier 201.39 SkAm
4) Chan/Howe 187.49 SCI
5) Chan/Howe 186.48 SCI
6) Kam/O'Shea 183.19 IceChallenge*
7) Chan/Howe 181.81 US Classic
8) Smirnova/Siianytsia 179.26 Golden Spin
9) Kam/O'Shea 178.83 Golden Spin
10) Plazas/Fernandez 166.25 US Classic
11) Smirnova/Siianytsia 165.12 GP Espoo
12) Plazas/Fernandez 164.14 SCI
13) Chan/Howe 162.91 GPF
14) McBeath/Bartholomay 162.81 Golden Spin
15) Mokhova/Mokhov 162.16 GPdFrance
16) Plazas/Fernandez 161.98 Finlandia
17) Mokhova/Mokhov 161.29 US Classic
18) Smirnova/Siianytsia 152.88 Finlandia
19) McBeath/Bartholomay 147.29 MKJW Trophy
20) Mokhova/Mokhov 145.23 SkAm
21) Mokhova/Mokhov 145.20 Finlandia
22) Plazas/Fernandez 143.55 SkAm

It's a darn shame that Siianystia is too old for Jrs by one year, because the obvious solution would be to send them to Jr Worlds again, especially with Smith/Deng splitting. As it is, SmirSiia are sitting, very comfortably, at 11 on the SB list and they're all but guaranteed to get 2 GP spots next season.

 

[miffy]

That’s really sad, 2 years in a row I would be surprised if that result would get them a world spot when another US team was less than a point behind them. I can see them being named as an alternate though.

 

[Frau Muller]

Baram/Tioumentsev scored 176.78 total in the Jr GP finals, with fewer elements to be scored. I definitely see them in the mix for the Sr Nationals 3rd place.

Kam/O’Shea are my big question for possible 3rd or even 2nd at Sr Natls.

 

[Joubabe]

I’m devastated for Nastyia and Danil! And selfishly for myself as their fan. They’ve quickly become my new favorites (after Alexa and Brandon of course). I see them as the future stars of US pairs and somehow they’ve touched a chord with me already. After all of the issues they’ve faced, I hope they can stay strong.

I would love for them to be named to the Worlds team but I know it’s probably a long shot.

I love Danny and I have nothing against his new partner but they looked very odd together the one time I was able to see them on YouTube. I’ll try to keep an open mind but they don’t seem to be a long term option.

 

[Taso]

Count me in as bummed that S&S aren't at Nats. I wish their Golden Spin win was somewhere. They are a beautiful team and as they get better with the tougher technical elements I think they are easily the future of US pairs (haven't seen Baram & Tioumentsev yet)

 

[Joubabe]

Baram & Tioumentsev are also great talents but unfortunately their ages make their future as a team questionable. Sonia is too young for seniors for 3 or 4 years and Tioumentsev is too old for Juniors after this year.

 

[Frau Muller]

Baram & Tioumentsev are also great talents but unfortunately their ages make their future as a team questionable. Sonia is too young for seniors for 3 or 4 years and Tioumentsev is too old for Juniors after this year.

During the JrGP final, Ted Barton mentioned that the ISU might be looking into fixing that with some sort of grandfathering clause for couples formed before the most recent rules. I remember hearing that in December. Let’s see.

 

[Trillian]

During the JrGP final, Ted Barton mentioned that the ISU might be looking into fixing that with some sort of grandfathering clause for couples formed before the most recent rules. I remember hearing that in December. Let’s see.

Even though I’m a fan of raising the age minimum, I wouldn’t hate this. There’s definitely a case to be made that partnerships formed under the previous rules have invested significant time and money without knowing that they’d be sitting out for a couple of years. And it’s a pretty small number of skaters, not a free-for-all.

What I’d really like to see would be the age minimum and the upper age limit raised for int’l junior pairs, for both partners, by 2 years or so. Let’s acknowledge that many skaters switch to pairs later, it takes a long time to get good at it, and it’s actually a good idea if they wait until they’re a little older for a variety of reasons. Raising the minimum a little would also still help address the concerns about prepubescent girls skating with grown men. Raising the limit gives those who start pairs later more time to develop their skills on an appropriate competitive circuit. If pairs is going to survive as a discipline, addressing issues like those in the developmental track would probably help a lot.

 

[Karen-W]

Well, if they are done after this season, they're certainly keeping that decision close to the vest...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619544846091575297

 

[Rukia]

Well, if they are done after this season, they're certainly keeping that decision close to the vest...

Yeah their press conference answer is still taking it one competition at a time, you never know what will happen, we treat every competition like our last, etc etc

 

[greenapple]

During the JrGP final, Ted Barton mentioned that the ISU might be looking into fixing that with some sort of grandfathering clause for couples formed before the most recent rules. I remember hearing that in December. Let’s see.

I think that is definitely something the ISU will be assessing given how few pairs teams there are (relatively speaking) in the world. Any junior team that has already competed internationally should be given a pass under the new rules. Just my 2 cents.

 

[tony]

Well, if they are done after this season, they're certainly keeping that decision close to the vest...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619544846091575297

I think they’ve made it clear to those around them that this year is the last, and wasn’t even supposed to happen before the Worlds win. Of course they have to give some generic answer like every other skater does when it comes to Federation press conferences.

 

[dds262]

I think they’ve made it clear to those around them that this year is the last, and wasn’t even supposed to happen before the Worlds win. Of course they have to give some generic answer like every other skater does when it comes to Federation press conferences.

I agree….Alexa’s mannerisms in K and C….tearing up backstage, Brandon’s answer in interview after their win.

 

[shuilee]

Kneirim/Frazier are going to "Art on Ice" with Ilia Malinin & Jason Brown for next couple of weeks, so they'll skip 4CC most likely.

Are Smirnova & Siianysia healthy enough to do 4CC? Maybe even a skate-off for 3rd spot at Worlds.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Well, if they are done after this season, they're certainly keeping that decision close to the vest...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619544846091575297

I sure personally would like for Alexa and Brandon to go all the way to Milan but only they know what they want. Here’s hoping!

 

[Karen-W]

Kneirim/Frazier are going to "Art on Ice" with Ilia Malinin & Jason Brown for next couple of weeks, so they'll skip 4CC most likely.

Are Smirnova & Siianysia healthy enough to do 4CC? Maybe even a skate-off for 3rd spot at Worlds.

SmirSiia said that she had an injury that would keep her off the ice a few weeks, so I don't think they'll be ready for 4CCs in 2 weeks.

USFS doesn't do skate-offs. Either they'll name them to the Worlds team or they won't. They'd be foolish not to, IMO.

 

[Karen-W]

I predict this will not go at all well for the USFS. Should have been Smirnova/Siianytsia on the Worlds team.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619606902656348160

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619607874111668225

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619609006246629376

He got the Dance and Pairs alternates switched for Jr Worlds, but they're no surprise based on the results of Nats.

 

[Trillian]

I predict this will not go at all well for the USFS. Should have been Smirnova/Siianytsia on the Worlds team.

Eh, I’m not sure how badly it really could go, in the grand scheme of pairs skating right now.

There’s a case to be made either way between S/S and K/O for that third spot on the team. I would have been inclined to go with S/S too based on nationals - but I can see arguments either way, and there are probably some factors in the decision we don’t know about. I hope next season, S/S can stay healthy and K/O can continue to develop their pairs skills, because both have a lot of potential to be among the top U.S. teams heading into 2026.

 

[olympic]

Watching the FS yesterday evening, good to know that US pairs are still a hot mess despite it all and therefore, the universe is in stasis

 

[her grace]

Kam/O'Shea's selection isn't surprising. You don't get pushed that much without USFS having a reason for it. Plus they are healthy and ready, and S/S are injured frequently.

All the assignments so far have been pretty straightforward.

 

[Rukia]

Kam/O'Shea's selection isn't surprising. You don't get pushed that much without USFS having a reason for it. Plus they are healthy and ready, and S/S are injured frequently.

All the assignments so far have been pretty straightforward.

I mean the reason doesn't always have to do with skating haha.

I think S/S is a better choice, but there may be other mitigating factors (and being injured half the season already may be just that). Only doing throw doubles in a senior worlds competition is just...idk. Seems strange to me. Or maybe they have proof they will upgrade?

But hey, maybe this will give S/S a chance to actually heal and come back stronger next season.

 

[Karen-W]

The way I see it, if the International Committee feels confident enough in SmirSiia's health to name them as 1st alternate, then they should have put then on the team. SmirSiia are attempting SBS 3S and 3T this season and one throw triple, and that's coming off injury, so they aren't always successful, but their BV and therefore their scoring potential is much higher than KamOSh with their throw doubles. It's blatant USFS favoritism, just like sending them to IceChallenge Graz the week of the US Pairs Final and giving them an international competition bye to Nats instead of having them go to the US Pairs Final.

I'm not saying that KamOSh don't have potential, but I also don't believe they're going to be scoring as high as a healthy SmirSiia, and I'm willing to take eat a lot of crow about this if they can manage a 160 overall score in 2 weeks at 4CCs when they skate in front of an ISU level judging panel rather than an International level judging panel like they did at both IceChallenge Graz and Golden Spin. If they do get above 160 then I'll shut up about them being named to the Worlds team, but I really don't think it's gonna happen. Beccari/Guarise could only manage a 152+ at Euros this week and they have a higher BV than KamOSh. I've reviewed the judging protocols from Golden Spin and, frankly, I think the panels were generous for what ALL of the teams did.

 

[Trillian]

Only doing throw doubles in a senior worlds competition is just...idk. Seems strange to me. Or maybe they have proof they will upgrade?

Without keeping track, I feel like I’ve seen more intentional double twists, sbs jumps, and some throws in senior competition than usual this season. That’s where we are with pairs skating right now. So it may not be as big a handicap as it would have been in other recent seasons, but I agree that it does feel weird.

My bigger concern from nationals - and I will preface this by saying I’m super, super, super impressed by Ellie’s skill set and how well she’s handled every competition this season - is that she’s still clearly getting comfortable with some of the senior level elements and competitive atmosphere. They were doing doubles because she wasn’t ready for triples - which is fine, and I have full confidence she’ll be doing triples soon. But it’s a lot of pressure for a teenager (even an exceptional one) to be thrown from junior nationals to senior world competition with a partner who is so much older, more experienced, and more high profile. The hazard of being on the world team is that now all the conversation is about the doubles, so will she feel pressure to try triples faster? I hope everyone around her is being mindful that no matter how great she seems to be doing with all of this, she’s young and inexperienced. There’s no way it won’t feel overwhelming at some points.

But hey, maybe this will give S/S a chance to actually heal and come back stronger next season.

I can imagine this being part of the thought process. It’s been a rough couple of years for them, so I hope the selection committee made what they thought was a good decision for the well-being of the skaters.

But given all the players involved here, it’s absolutely reasonable to wonder how much politics played a role. It’s not K/O’s fault and they have tons of potential, but USFS has been pushing them since the first time they accidentally stood near each other on the ice and whatever official happened to drop into the rink that day was like, “Oh look, you’re a pairs team now, sorry, I don’t make the rules, pack your bags for Austria in two weeks,” which I assume is how it happened.

 

[Rukia]

I just want it noted I'm not trying to rag on Ellie Kam. On the contrary I think she's doing amazing. And I'm glad she's not being forced to try things she doesn't feel comfortable with or ready for. That actually says a lot about her coaching team.

And I definitely hope to look forward to growing in pairs. She's very talented.