sonsofanarchy
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I included the mens since I think at this event it is even more intriguing than the ladies.
The ladies would have been very interesting if not only the 3 favorites Arakawa, Cohen, Slutskaya had all skated cleanly, but perhaps the home girl favorite Kostner who would have probably gotten a big home boost in scoring and as a world medalist from 2005 where she didn't even skate well and still got the bronze, could have been surprisingly in the mix with those others. And perhaps Ando who had a triple lutz-triple loop, although I am not sure her PCS would have ever been enough to contend in this scenario, especialy if Arakawa and Slutskaya also opted to do their triple- triples.
There are also the women who weren't there. I personally can't see either Kwan or a very young raw Yu Na Kim (her PCS in fall 2006 were super duper low remember, she only won World Juniors since Asada skated very badly there) even skating cleanly contending in this actual hypothetical of everyone skating cleanly, in the actual 2006 event as it was skated possibly but not in this hypothetical. There might be some who feel differently though, I am guessing there are going to be some dissenters on Kim imparticular, hence why I put the reminder of how low her PCS were when she first started senior. However Asada I definitely could see strongly contending even in this scenario, and I suspect most agree on that. Remember she was a combined 5-1 vs Cohen, Slutskaya, Arakawa that season, even if they weren't always skating cleanly, she wasn't either in all of those events and it was her superior jump content combined with unlike Kim very high senior PCS that seemed to give her the edge.
The mens it seems obvious the judges were going to gift Plushenko the gold if he were even 70% clean no matter what anyone else did. However the other medal spots are interesting. Lambiel had the quad and high PCS, but no triple axel, and while people say his spins are great Lysacek and some others scored higher on spins in Turin. Lysacek had no quad but won the Olympics in 2010 with no quad too. Buttle tried a quad in the long program, but had almost no chance of ever landing it so I don't know what one even counts as a clean skate for him, but huge PCS, very high GOE, and good points for spins and footwork. Weir could be competitive in the short even if it weren't the splatfest of Turin, but probably would never skate a long program properly with the right construction using the system properly to max out technical scores to medal even with a clean skate, despite similar content and PCS to most of the other contenders. There is also Joubert who can outjump everyone but Plushenko probably but suffers from lower spin, footwork and PCS marks. And probably 1 or 2 other possible contenders. The silver and bronze for mens in this scenario would be super interesting, and I have a harder time figuring that out than my picks for the gold, silver, and bronze in the womens.
I think I would guess it going.
Womens
Gold- Slutskaya. By clean I mean doing a triple-triple and not having the shaky landings she had on most of the jumps she landed in her Turin long program.
Silver- Asada (if there and clean); Cohen if Asada is not there. I don't see Arakawa attempting a 3-3 even if the others had skated better, since she was always called for URs by then. That is why I have Cohen over her. If Arakawa actually does a 3-3 then she comes over Cohen, but probably not over Slutskaya.
Bronze- Arakawa (if Asada is not there, and she does not try a 3-3).
Mens
Silver- Lambiel. This was tough but this is still my guess.
Bronze- Joubert. I think his TES would push him over Buttle if we assume clean Buttle means trying a quad and falling on it but everything else clean. Since I don't think Buttle is even capable of doing a quad, I have never seen him land one ever.
The ladies would have been very interesting if not only the 3 favorites Arakawa, Cohen, Slutskaya had all skated cleanly, but perhaps the home girl favorite Kostner who would have probably gotten a big home boost in scoring and as a world medalist from 2005 where she didn't even skate well and still got the bronze, could have been surprisingly in the mix with those others. And perhaps Ando who had a triple lutz-triple loop, although I am not sure her PCS would have ever been enough to contend in this scenario, especialy if Arakawa and Slutskaya also opted to do their triple- triples.
There are also the women who weren't there. I personally can't see either Kwan or a very young raw Yu Na Kim (her PCS in fall 2006 were super duper low remember, she only won World Juniors since Asada skated very badly there) even skating cleanly contending in this actual hypothetical of everyone skating cleanly, in the actual 2006 event as it was skated possibly but not in this hypothetical. There might be some who feel differently though, I am guessing there are going to be some dissenters on Kim imparticular, hence why I put the reminder of how low her PCS were when she first started senior. However Asada I definitely could see strongly contending even in this scenario, and I suspect most agree on that. Remember she was a combined 5-1 vs Cohen, Slutskaya, Arakawa that season, even if they weren't always skating cleanly, she wasn't either in all of those events and it was her superior jump content combined with unlike Kim very high senior PCS that seemed to give her the edge.
The mens it seems obvious the judges were going to gift Plushenko the gold if he were even 70% clean no matter what anyone else did. However the other medal spots are interesting. Lambiel had the quad and high PCS, but no triple axel, and while people say his spins are great Lysacek and some others scored higher on spins in Turin. Lysacek had no quad but won the Olympics in 2010 with no quad too. Buttle tried a quad in the long program, but had almost no chance of ever landing it so I don't know what one even counts as a clean skate for him, but huge PCS, very high GOE, and good points for spins and footwork. Weir could be competitive in the short even if it weren't the splatfest of Turin, but probably would never skate a long program properly with the right construction using the system properly to max out technical scores to medal even with a clean skate, despite similar content and PCS to most of the other contenders. There is also Joubert who can outjump everyone but Plushenko probably but suffers from lower spin, footwork and PCS marks. And probably 1 or 2 other possible contenders. The silver and bronze for mens in this scenario would be super interesting, and I have a harder time figuring that out than my picks for the gold, silver, and bronze in the womens.
I think I would guess it going.
Womens
Gold- Slutskaya. By clean I mean doing a triple-triple and not having the shaky landings she had on most of the jumps she landed in her Turin long program.
Silver- Asada (if there and clean); Cohen if Asada is not there. I don't see Arakawa attempting a 3-3 even if the others had skated better, since she was always called for URs by then. That is why I have Cohen over her. If Arakawa actually does a 3-3 then she comes over Cohen, but probably not over Slutskaya.
Bronze- Arakawa (if Asada is not there, and she does not try a 3-3).
Mens
Silver- Lambiel. This was tough but this is still my guess.
Bronze- Joubert. I think his TES would push him over Buttle if we assume clean Buttle means trying a quad and falling on it but everything else clean. Since I don't think Buttle is even capable of doing a quad, I have never seen him land one ever.