Are the OGMs in the 2022 Olympics the most predictable ever?

[caseyedwards]

No I am not. Not one bit.

Browning in 94 had lost at his own Nationals to Stojko. He was 4th in the short program at his own Nationals (and lost the LP to Stojko too). How is that a lock. In fact CBS (I assume you are American) talked about the mens event being a 5 way battle for gold going in, sure sounds like the experts, such as Scott Hamilton and Tracy Wilson who talked up this 5 way battle, thought Browning was some lock. And as I already covered 92 he was not even close to a lock with a back injury, barely competing, and doing a lowly 2 triples at his only outing. Maybe if he didn't have a back injury he would be close to a lock in 92, but that is inventing an alternate reality that sadly for Browning is not the one that existed. That is no hindsight, I actually followed skating back then so know what I am talking about, unlike many of you apparently.

I conceded Kwan in 98 is the only one that you might be able to make a case for. So that is exactly one time a supposed lock lost. 1 is a long way from 4.

I wanted to get the total FACTS and Truth and all the bookies in the world were saying Petrenko would repeat!!

 

[Fadeevfanboy]

I wanted to get the total FACTS and Truth and all the bookies in the world were saying Petrenko would repeat!!

Yeah I would have picked Petrenko if I picked anyone, although it was always a close run thing between Petrenko, Browning, Boitano, maybe Stojko, with Davis and Urmanov not far behind either. He was unbeaten that season, unlike Browning and Boitano who both didn't even win their own Nationals. His stamina looked better than before and he was regularly doing more triples per competition than anyone but Stojko who was weak artistically. I am laughing at some people in this thread arguing people who couldn't even win their own Nationals in the Olympic year as supposed "locks" and being told saying otherwise is hindsight, LOL!

 

[VGThuy]

Dance 2006 was so exciting except for the winners .Belbin/ Agosto could they beat N/K? Denstas missed Euros so not to be judged according to Simon Reed. The return of FP/M and D/V. The CD won by FP/M THEN all the falls in the OD poor MF plus death stare what was happening ?THEN FP/M unravelling in the FD and Grushgons slooooow FD with tassles honestly it had everything.

I still don't understand FP/M's thought process for their FD that season. We have an Olympics in Italy. We want redemption for what happened in 2002 when we're one of the few reigning World Champs to not only lose gold but not even be close to winning silver. We're hungry and want to give the people a show. So let's skate to..."The Prince of Egypt".

I mean I get it's nice dramatic music, but I expected something much closer to FP/M's wheelhouse and to I don't know...acknowledge their home Olympics. I guess they felt their strengths was DRAMATIC FDs and the music did have that dramatic chanting and ballad high notes.

 

[Fadeevfanboy]

I still don't understand FP/M's thought process for their FD that season. We have an Olympics in Italy. We want redemption for what happened in 2002 when we're one of the few reigning World Champs to not only lose gold but not even be close to winning silver. We're hungry and want to give the people a show. So let's skate to..."The Prince of Egypt".

I mean I get it's nice dramatic music, but I expected something much closer to FP/M's wheelhouse and to I don't know...acknowledge their home Olympics. I guess they felt their strengths was DRAMATIC FDs and the music did have that dramatic chanting and ballad high notes.

They should have skated to something more similar to their 2000 and 2001 FDs. Their two best ever, that really suited their powerful, overly dramatic style, with snappy and fast (even if a bit sloppy) footwork and toe steps. Their 2001 FD full of angst and passion would have been the perfect theme for their emotions and a fighting comeback as underdogs.

 

[Lara]

You are looking at the results with hindsight. In 1998, everyone thought Kwan was a lock.

Because of the major ice storm that hit January 1998, I didn't end up seeing Kwan's US Nats performance before the Olympics. I've sometimes wondered how that would have influenced my perception, because I was surprised but definitely not shocked when Tara won.

 

[Fadeevfanboy]

Because of the major ice storm that hit January 1998, I didn't end up seeing Kwan's US Nats performance before the Olympics. I've sometimes wondered how that would have influenced my perception, because I was surprised but definitely not shocked when Tara won.

She had 15 6.0s at Nationals. That is why she was considered pretty heavily favored over Tara going into the Games, despite Tara being reigning World. Champions. I myself considered Kwan favorite but not a lock for 98. Tara still had beaten her 3 times in the past 12 months, and won the GPF (which Kwan didn't skate) decisively. And she was a fierce competitor. It was Kwan's amazing and historically great U.S Nationals performances that had her heavily favored to many, and even close to a lock for some, though. It was all based upon that event. Plus that she convincingly beat Tara at Skate America that season in their other meeting, and Tara had a humiliating loss to Hubert that season. Momentum just seemed to be much more in Kwan's favor at that point.

 

[VGThuy]

Yeah Skate America did make it seem like the judges were all in Kwan’s corner especially after both did a clean SP there and the marks were wildly higher for Kwan. People forget that Tara wasn’t clean in the LP though so we never saw Tara compete cleanly against Kwan until the Olympics. She was clean in the GPF and won that.

ETA: Tara actually did have a small mistake getting the hook into her opening camel of her change-of-foot combo spin at the Skate America SP. Still the marks she received surprised her.

 

[SLIVER]

Dance 2006 was so exciting except for the winners .Belbin/ Agosto could they beat N/K? Denstas missed Euros so not to be judged according to Simon Reed. The return of FP/M and D/V. The CD won by FP/M THEN all the falls in the OD poor MF plus death stare what was happening ?THEN FP/M unravelling in the FD and Grushgons slooooow FD with tassles honestly it had everything.

A brilliant event but one of the worst judged events ever lol

 

[VGThuy]

A brilliant event but one of the worst judged events ever lol

IJS growing pains FOR SURE.

 

[SLIVER]

They should have skated to something more similar to their 2000 and 2001 FDs. Their two best ever, that really suited their powerful, overly dramatic style, with snappy and fast (even if a bit sloppy) footwork and toe steps. Their 2001 FD full of angst and passion would have been the perfect theme for their emotions and a fighting comeback as underdogs.

You forget one important detail. Their 2001 free was pre IJS and so utterly simple it’s almost laughable. If you rewatch the ‘straight line step sequence’ they do at the end you will literally die laughing if you just watch him. They sold it beautifully and skated with a lot of speed and passion but it was so so simple and open, not a chocktaw, rocker or counter in site. Do you remember their ‘twizzles’ at the start lol.
Anyway the long winded point I am making is that in 2006 they had to do footwork he had never done and couldn’t handle at all. Whatever they did they couldn’t do with the usual speed and openness they were use to.

 

[Fadeevfanboy]

You forget one important detail. Their 2001 free was pre IJS and so utterly simple it’s almost laughable. If you rewatch the ‘straight line step sequence’ they do at the end you will literally die laughing if you just watch him. They sold it beautifully and skated with a lot of speed and passion but it was so so simple and open, not a chocktaw, rocker or counter in site. Do you remember their ‘twizzles’ at the start lol.
Anyway the long winded point I am making is that in 2006 they had to do footwork he had never done and couldn’t handle at all. Whatever they did they couldn’t do with the usual speed and openness they were use to.

That is true. But they could have done something similar but added in more difficulty to suit IJS without sacrificing too much of the theme or effect they were trying to create? I didn't say the exact same dance, but something similar, but maybe even that would be difficult under IJS.

 

[SLIVER]

That is true. But they could have done something similar but added in more difficulty to suit IJS without sacrificing too much of the theme or effect they were trying to create? I didn't say the exact same dance, but something similar, but maybe even that would be difficult under IJS.

I think it would have been too difficult, everyone was so slow in 2006, there was so much footwork suddenly, in a generation that never trained that way.
What was more shocking with F/M was how GOD AWFUL their costumes were in 2006, esp the compulsory and the free.
Side note, great username you have. Fadeev was a legend, his 1989 short and free from Europeans are 2 of my favourites ever.

 

[VGThuy]

I think it would have been too difficult, everyone was so slow in 2006, there was so much footwork suddenly, in a generation that never trained that way.
What was more shocking with F/M was how GOD AWFUL their costumes were in 2006, esp the compulsory and the free.
Side note, great username you have. Fadeev was a legend, his 1989 short and free from Europeans are 2 of my favourites ever.

Was it because his white pants were see-through and “saucy”?

 

[canbelto]

Is 2018 unique in that each discipline had two highly competitive skaters and who won OGM was up in the air?

Mens - it was going to be between Hanyu and Chen. Chen flamed out in the SP but ...
Dance - it was going to be V&M vs P&C and it did end up being very close
Ladies - going to be between Med and Zags and it was super-close
Pairs - going to be between Savchenko/Massot and Sui/Han and again, it was super-close.

 

[Cherub721]

Is 2018 unique in that each discipline had two highly competitive skaters and who won OGM was up in the air?

Mens - it was going to be between Hanyu and Chen. Chen flamed out in the SP but ...
Dance - it was going to be V&M vs P&C and it did end up being very close
Ladies - going to be between Med and Zags and it was super-close
Pairs - going to be between Savchenko/Massot and Sui/Han and again, it was super-close.

AND all of the close ones went my way, which was awesome

 

[~tapdancer~]

It's always funny to read how these "prediction" threads start out and how the competition ends up.

 

[Vagabond]

I, for one, totally foresaw that Valieva would finish off the podium.