Are the OGMs in the 2022 Olympics the most predictable ever?

Vash01

Fan of Yuzuru, T&M, P&C
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Usually one or two disciplines have one skater/team so far ahead that one can easily predict the OGM. This time I feel the OGM in all four disciplines are very predictable, with the possible exception of pairs. That is because we have seen Sui Han only twice this season. Although they won both times, I am reading that they are going to add more difficulty, like quad twist. They will have the home ice advantage. Still, it could be close between them and M/G.

The other three disciplines have clear favorites for the OGM.

Women - Kamila Valieva
Men- Nathan Chen
Ice dance - Papadakis Cizeron

Pairs - Sui/Han or Mishina/Galliamov

Of course the ice is slippery but these three have been so consistent/dominant that I don't see anyone beating them.
It would have been close in Ice dance if Nikita didn't have a back injury.

Fortunately the races for other medals are wide open.
 
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aka_gerbil

Rooting for the Underdogs
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I’ve felt for a long time that the medals are going to be pretty predictable, and not just the OGMs. Ladies will be a Russian sweep. Men’s silver and bronze is probably down to Zhou and the Japanese men. S/K will get silver in ice dance, and that leaves only the bronze. Same deal probably for pairs.

It’s making the whole lot of individual events unexciting. I think Russia is the favorite in the team event, but I also think the team event is more likely to have surprises. It’s the only thing I have any real interest in excitement-wise for Beijing.
 

Fadeevfanboy

Well-Known Member
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As much as it pains me to say it I could easily see Chen losing. I still think he has a great shot but I say it is pretty even over/under of Chen vs the field right now. He might have an injury, and does not look as invicible this season as others, and numerous guys are gunning for him.

Valieva is a huge lock.

Papadakis & Cizeron are even pretty much a lock at this point I think. Sinitsina & Katsalapov look so so and will do well to hang on for silver at this point.

Pairs is still up in the air. Mishina & Galliamov are the favorites but not unbeatable.

I think only the ladies and to a large extent the dance are already determined.
 

Vash01

Fan of Yuzuru, T&M, P&C
Messages
53,573
I’ve felt for a long time that the medals are going to be pretty predictable, and not just the OGMs. Ladies will be a Russian sweep. Men’s silver and bronze is probably down to Zhou and the Japanese men. S/K will get silver in ice dance, and that leaves only the bronze. Same deal probably for pairs.

It’s making the whole lot of individual events unexciting. I think Russia is the favorite in the team event, but I also think the team event is more likely to have surprises. It’s the only thing I have any real interest in excitement-wise for Beijing.
In the Team event Russia and US are neck to neck. Just one placement could make the difference between gold and silver. In 2014 Russia was dominant. That is not the case anymore.
In individual events they are strong in women and pairs.
 
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museksk8r

Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy
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3,513
I’ve felt for a long time that the medals are going to be pretty predictable, and not just the OGMs. Ladies will be a Russian sweep. Men’s silver and bronze is probably down to Zhou and the Japanese men. S/K will get silver in ice dance, and that leaves only the bronze. Same deal probably for pairs.

It’s making the whole lot of individual events unexciting. I think Russia is the favorite in the team event, but I also think the team event is more likely to have surprises. It’s the only thing I have any real interest in excitement-wise for Beijing.
I think Mark Kondratiuk has a better shot at an Olympic medal than Vincent Zhou and his many under rotations.
 

orbitz

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10,454
I don't know if Nathan is a sure thing in Beijing. One fall in the SP can be all that is needed to knock him out of the gold medal. I don't think he has been rock solid this whole season, and both of his programs this year, IMO, are uninspiring. I think two clean, inspiring skates from someone like Kagiyama could/should win it if judged correctly.

Ice dance could also be a toss up. We know who most of the fans want to win, but what will the judges think?
 

bardtoob

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14,321

"Are the OGMs in the 2022 Olympics the most predictable ever?"​


No. I would say the 1960 Olympics were the most predictable. The 1959 World Champions won the OGMs. Compulsory rounds made the results very stable. There were fewer disciplines, so fewer chances of variability.
 
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