VGThuy
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I think the truth was Chen did not want to do both the SP and LP for the Team Event and was concentrating on an individual medal (gold). The USFS also wanted to balance the interest in maximizing the team chances and maximizing their chance for an individual medal. And maybe they thought like you, especially after the SP, that the best the US could do was bronze. (However, if Chen skated lights out in the TE SP, and was within range of taking the silver away, then who knows? Maybe the USFS would have kept Chen in after persuading him to do it.) However, since that didn't happen, they had ot think about swapping out the men and thus...This isn't to make an argument, but you're here pointing out that the Shibutani's were clearly the best team internationally and giving hypotheticals about the two others teams, although it had been a tight three-way race in the two months prior to the Olympics as far as who was leading US dancing, and somehow a team that either A) won Nationals over them or B) came within one point of them overall in two competitions in a row somehow isn't as safe of a choice as selecting Adam, who had his own mini meltdown at Nationals, for the mens LP in terms of 'we definitely need the strongest overall team'. Duhamel/Radford, Chan to an extent, and even Kolyada could've been considered outside medal favorites, and the former actually did win a medal/had a small chance at competing for gold. They aren't doing 5-6 quad free skates, but they had a quad of their own and they competed closer together than the men did. I blame the ISU for that anyways, which goes into the next point.
I think it came down to Adam's BOW, he was seen as a safer choice to replace Chen in the LP than Miner. On paper, Zhou would have been a better choice due to his ability to rack up the TES. But he was untested, unseasoned, nearly lost the Olympic berth due to UR calls, and his PCS was a big disadvantage at the time. Adam really built up the reputation. I still think had Brown skated up to par he would have been the second man called and Miner would be on the Olympic team. I think the USFS wanted one of Brown/Rippon if they couldn't have both.
As for ice dance, don't forget, the Shibs had two seasons in establishing themselves and no other American team beat them overall at any international competition since the 2015-16 GPF. They were also the only American team that quad to beat P/C within a year at the 2016-17 GPF SD. They won both their GP events - and at one of those...it was over Bob/Sol "in Russia" (using Carol Lane voice). The Shibs also won both their GP events last season and were known to be very consistent to the point where they were consistently effectively permanently on that podium with V/M and P/C by the time Pyeongchang came around even if the actual competitions showed it wasn't easy for the Shibs to keep their fixture status on that third step.
As for the scores leading up to Pyeongchang, the Shibs also had a major error in the GPF FD and Maia nearly fell at Nationals to make those scores that close. It wasn't as if the all three skated cleanly and were within a point of one another by that point. However, overall, even with two FDs in a row where the Shibs made major mistakes to open the door for the other two, overall, they still had many less mistakes than the other two American teams. And even if all three teams were equal, then from a team selection standpoint, what did it matter that the Shibs would be replaced with one of the other in the FD? The result would be the same whether the Shibs did both or they swapped the Shibs out for either of the other two American teams, right? I actually find that last sentence debatable because I easily could see Chock/Bates losing to both Bob/Sol and Cappellini/Lanotte in either the SD or the FD or both as they did in the individual competition, and between the Shibs and H/D, I know which team had a bigger chance to place below either or both of Bob/Sol and Cap/Lan.
I'm sticking to my ice dance analysis above after being shut down during the ice dance 2018 Olympic PBP thread as to being wrong about the Shibs' bronze medal chances. I'll never get over that and I still remember who the posters were who were telling me how the Shibs had no chance. I was paying attention to the scores and trends, and past performances knew what was what and I bet the USFS had the same feelings as well even if they didn't actively take a stance in the three-way domestic battle for international medals.
Really, it was about whether Chen would do both (he wouldn't) and if it would have made a difference if Bradie was swapped out. I think if Bradie somehow placed like third or higher in the SP portion, she could have done both and thus ice dance could have been swapped, but I guess Bradie's placement made the USFS go ahead and go with the original plan and swap her out with Mirai thus taking a gamble with her potential 3A that actually paid off.
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