What If ... 1992 Olympics Ladies competition

olympic

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What if each of Yamaguchi, Ito, Kerrigan, and Harding skated back-to-back their best SPs and LPs, what would the results have looked like?

My opinion -

SP:
1. Ito - 3A combo; better with that intangible quality of ice presence than Harding; music more presentable for the judges
2. Harding - Competes w. Ito jump-for-jump; actually a better spinner IMO, but loses to Ito for the above-stated reason; also intl. judges were not unwilling to break from the USFSA and its backing of Yamaguchi, usually they were willing to give Harding higher marks than natl. judges and reward her SS when clean
3. Yamaguchi - Does not compete technically w/ Ito and Harding. I did not like the Blue Danube SP; it was IMO languid in comparison to Ito and Harding's music and showed her to be less powerful than the other 2. Still in a position to control her destiny.
4. Kerrigan - Good SP, but she is the 3rd American w/ the same jump layout as Yamaguchi keeps her in 4th

LP:

1. Ito - A 3A-2T and 3Z-3T, along with a more developed sense of artistry than in the past would've IMO also won her LP. Also, I think in the battle with everyone doing their best, Ito was more likely to pull a 6.0 in tech than Yamaguchi pulling a 6.0 for artistry. That is why even in a close battle, Ito has an edge.
2. Yamaguchi - Out on a limb, but I think judges would've given Yamaguchi the 2nd mark over Harding and Ito. Better music and 'telling a story' on the ice, but I think she may have been a little too far behind Ito's tech mark, yet close enough to Harding (3Z-3T; repeating the 3Z). Her edge jumps were Sumners-swingy but could be landed to decent effect.
3. Harding - Also developed better sense of artistry and a 3A, but less ambitious jumping than Ito (3T-3T instead of 3Z-3T; no 3A combo; no repeated Lutz), so closer to Yamaguchi for Harding to slide behind her on the 2nd mark, maybe breaking any possible ties: I could foresee 5.9/5.8 for Harding and 5.8/5.9 marks for Yamaguchi
4. Kerrigan - Good qualities and I loved Born on the 4th of July as her LP, but the least tech among the 4 skaters and was the #3 American. She had a Lutz and a 3T-3T.

G- Ito
S- Yamaguchi
B- Harding
4- Kerrigan

There was a big gap between 4 -> 5. I didn't include Bonaly, who would only figure in the top 4 if the others made grave mistakes in the SP (which happened in reality). Also Lu, Chouinard and Sato were not fully developed skaters at the time. I think Chouinard and Sato had an arsenal up to the 3L (?) that season.....
 
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Bellanca

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Yamaguchi still wins gold under this scenario because judges (in 92) loved artistry, and even with improved artistry by Ito, Kristi would have to implode - due to politics of the day.

If Kerrigan stays on her feet and lands her jumps, she moves past Harding.

Imo, Ito was always a solid silver - unless she completely melts down.

ETA: assuming the top three skate clean and perform to their highest level/potential.

G - Yamaguchi
S - Ito
B - Kerrigan (still wins bronze).
 
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D

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It's a hard question because Ito's planned content was unclear, and the others never even once landed all of their planned content.

It might be more meaningful to judge their best performances that season against each other?

Harding: 1991 Skate America (possibly with assumed landing of the 2A in the short program?)
Yamaguchi: 1991 Nationals? Or 1992 Worlds?
Ito: NHK or Lalique? (I forget which was better)
Kerrigan: no idea, always seemed to be a mess in terms of executing her planned content
 

DBZ

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Had everyone skated cleanly, I think the judges would've awarded Ito gold. She really was a force of nature when she was on and could generate enough excitement that could overshadow Yamaguchi.

People often forget that Ito had incredible speed and pretty decent skating skills. She wasn't just a jumper. She skated so big, she could make anyone look small when she was in the zone.

Tonya had a similar quality, but IMO was too unrefined in so many other aspects of her skating, that I don't think the judges could overlook them even if she landed all her jumps. Her programs by 1992 were so poorly constructed and nothing but crossovers to set up for her jumps. Not to mention the terrible music-cuts...yikes.

Here's how I think the judges would've ranked the final top 4 had all skated cleanly:

1. Ito
2. Yamaguchi
3. Harding
4. Kerrigan
 

Maximillian

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I agree that if all skated their best, Ito would have won, Yama would have been second, Tonya third and Nancy fourth. I think the reality is that the judges HAD to reward the 3A, but somehow I think that two ladies landing it would have diluted the effect for the lesser skater of the two and allowed Yama to slip into 2nd; in other words if Tonya skated like she did at Skate America 1991 and Ito skated like she did in Albertville, Tonya would have won and Ito would have been third.
 
C

casken

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Wow. Interesting perspectives, no one giving Harding props?
I will. International judges liked Harding when she was on in 91/92, (she skated early in the sp at her first worlds in 91 and got 5.8s and 5.9s for presentation) so I actually think it would have been between her and Ito, but with the edge going to Ito.
 

floskate

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Midori tinkered with the jump layout throughout the season, as well as the program itself and I don't think that helped matters. But I think she was going for the 3x-2t combo in the SP (although she had been landing 3x3t combo's with ease in practice), then in the long the planned content was 3z-3t, 3x combo, 3r, 3f, 3x, 3s, 2x. If clean it could have been a 7 or 8 triple long depending on her doing a triple toe after one of the axels.

It's been 28 years since this competition and I've pretty come to terms with the result now so I feel I can discuss this without too much pain :lol:
 

Bellanca

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The buzz behind the scenes at the time (despite the media pushing Ito vs. Yamaguchi - they always do that to build suspense, etc. ;)) was that gold was Kristi's to lose. It is common for fans to remember or see these things differently – because they are fans and are cheering on a specific skater. The politics, however, favored Yamaguchi if she did not suffer a meltdown or give it away – it is important to emphasize this. Never underestimate the political side of things. Kristi was a clear favorite despite the fact Midori earned and enjoyed an abundance of praise for the magnificent skater she was. Still, Midori was somewhat in the shadow of the USA having a viable Olympic gold medal threat (Kristi) after a considerable dry spell of not, even though Japan was looking for their first Olympic Champion, which they eventually got w/ Shizuka.
 
C

casken

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in the long the planned content was 3z-3t, 3x combo, 3r, 3f, 3x, 3s, 2x. If clean it could have been a 7 or 8 triple long depending on her doing a triple toe after one of the axels.

Imagine she hit that program. It might have been 6.0 across the board for the technical mark.
 

Foolhardy Ham Lint

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I've said this many times, if Tonya had skated like she did at Skate America, the gold medal was hers. She was phenomenal in Oakland.

Kristi was excellent at US Nationals, where she finally landed her nemesis triple salchow. I could never figure out Midori's jump content, as it kept changing from competition to competition. Between the two of them, it was a toss up for silver.

Nancy was such a train wreck in the long program all season. I think being dressed by Vera Wang got her that bronze in Albertville. I would have put her behind Chen Lu, Yuka Sato and Karen Preston in France, and Alice Sue Claeys in Oakland.
 
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gk_891

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Someone correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Midori seen practicing (or at least attempting) a LP with a triple lutz triple toe combination, triple axel triple toe combination, triple flip, triple loop, a second triple axel, triple salchow, and then double axel at the end?
 

Foolhardy Ham Lint

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Someone correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Midori seen practicing (or at least attempting) a LP with a triple lutz triple toe combination, triple axel triple toe combination, triple flip, triple loop, a second triple axel, triple salchow, and then double axel at the end?

There is definitely YouTube footage of Ito landing a triple axel/triple toe loop during practice in Albertville. I don't remember her competing with that content, though. (The most triples in her free skate I recall her doing in competition, Lalique, NHK, and Japanese Nationals in the lead up to the Olympics was six as opposed to eight.)

I think having Bonaly attempting to psyche her out with that infamous backflip, as well as switching her combination to a triple lutz in the short program at the last minute, didn't help Midori's chances.
 

gk_891

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There is definitely YouTube footage of Ito landing a triple axel/triple toe loop during practice in Albertville. I don't remember her competing with that content, though. (The most triples in her free skate I recall her doing in competition, Lalique, NHK, and Japanese Nationals in the lead up to the Olympics was six as opposed to eight.)

I think having Bonaly attempting to psyche her out with that infamous backflip, as well as switching her combination to a triple lutz in the short program at the last minute, didn't help Midori's chances.

With a triple lutz triple toe combination and a triple axel triple toe combination, she could've revolutionized the sport even further.
 

Foolhardy Ham Lint

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I'm sorry that Ito didn't keep her short program from either the 1989/90 or 1990/91 seasons, and return to Scheherezade for the 1991/92 season as well. I found her choices in the lead-up to Albertville really heavy and bombastic, as though her team were trying to have her outperform both Yamaguchi and Harding in terms of music and presentation.
 

bardtoob

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The buzz behind the scenes at the time (despite the media pushing Ito vs. Yamaguchi - they always do that to build suspense, etc. ;)) was that gold was Kristi's to lose.

Only up to Skate America 1991, note Kristi's interview:


and Trophy Lalique 1991, note Kristi's interview:


Ultimately, Kristi won the Olympic Gold Medal because she was hardworking, reliable, and balanced, but not to an extreme in anyway like Midori and Tonya.

However, we can not forget that Midori landed the first 3A in international competition and Tonya landed the first 3A combination in the SP in international competition, making her competitive with men, which was innovative, more than a decade ahead of its time

------------------------

Note: Tonya's 3A-2T was better than Christopher Bowman's . . . and Christopher, despite training with Toller, was clearly Frank's boy per the bad cuts of Michelle Kwan's music :D

Tonya also did a little more than Todd Eldredge despite her fall:

 
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Maximillian

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I'm sorry that Ito didn't keep her short program from either the 1989/90 or 1990/91 seasons, and return to Scheherezade for the 1991/92 season as well. I found her choices in the lead-up to Albertville really heavy and bombastic, as though her team were trying to have her outperform both Yamaguchi and Harding in terms of music and presentation.
Honestly, I hated all of Midori's music choices for her LPs throughout the quad, all her programs seemed dirgelike and it was so disappointing after her LP in Calgary which suited her personality and skating to a tee. I actually felt that Harding's team had a better sense of who she was as a person and a skater and while people in the audience might not have always liked her music choices you couldn't deny that they fit her and her style...that is until the Moon River debacle in Oakland, I don't think people cite that enough in terms of the narrative of Harding never quite being accepted or 'fitting in' with TPTB.
 

tony

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I think I’m going to agree that the judges would’ve been in a predicament if both Ito and Harding went all-out with their triple Axels. Imagine Ito does a 3A+3T and another 3A, and Tonya does her 3A to start her long. You’d likely give Midori the 6.0 for technical merit, right? But you give Tonya a 5.9 then?

Of course it’s the ordinal that matters at the end of the day, but could you justify a 5.9/5.9 for Harding (and likely a 6.0/5.9 for Ito in doing so), or do you drop it to 5.9/5.8 (or lower) and then let Kristi sneak in with a 5.8/5.9? She did have a 3+3, after all. I think they would’ve given it to Midori but found a way similar to above to get Kristi into 2nd.
 

Bellanca

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Only up to Skate America 1991, note Kristi's interview:
I was on assignment @ those particular Olys, and that was the buzz. Kris was the favorite (at that moment in time) contrary to the interviews and media hype — unless she had a bad skate. The feeling was that Kris would handle the Olympic pressure better and her performance/skating would ultimately reflect that.
 

bardtoob

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The feeling was that Kris would handle the Olympic pressure better and her performance/skating would ultimately reflect that.

If that is what you meant, then that makes perfect sense and is what ultimately happened.

Kristi had a lower limit for how bad a program could get, and it was still pretty good and typically consisted of 5 triples.

Also, Tonya had that weird choke in the 1991 Worlds LP where she lost because she only landed 4 triples, which were the 3A, 3Lz, 3F, and 3Lp. Seriously, how could she not do a 3T or 3S!?!

 
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olympic

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I think I’m going to agree that the judges would’ve been in a predicament if both Ito and Harding went all-out with their triple Axels. Imagine Ito does a 3A+3T and another 3A, and Tonya does her 3A to start her long. You’d likely give Midori the 6.0 for technical merit, right? But you give Tonya a 5.9 then?

Of course it’s the ordinal that matters at the end of the day, but could you justify a 5.9/5.9 for Harding (and likely a 6.0/5.9 for Ito in doing so), or do you drop it to 5.9/5.8 (or lower) and then let Kristi sneak in with a 5.8/5.9? She did have a 3+3, after all. I think they would’ve given it to Midori but found a way similar to above to get Kristi into 2nd.

@Tony Wheeler yes. This is exactly what I am saying in my first post. The 6.0 system would've allowed for something like: Ito -6.0/5.9, Yamaguchi - 5.8/5.9, Harding - 5.9/5.8. All skating their best, hitting each planned element. Judges rewarding 3A from Ito and Harding, but 3Z-3T, 3Z and the 2nd mark keeping Yamaguchi alive to slip past one of the 3A'ers. I really don't see a scenario where Nancy overcomes any of these 3 ladies even skating clean. But, she is easily 4th and way ahead of the others.

-------

BTW, as for the others:

Bonaly in 1992 had trainwreck SS and choreo. I suppose she would've been 5th if she were clean in Albertville, skating in her home country.

Chen Lu was skating competitively in her 2nd year, yet had a way to go in polish and choreo.

Chouinard was the top finisher outside this quartet in 1991 (I think) and was a lovely skater when she was on (which was rare). I would be interested to see where she would've landed in the standings if SHE skated clean back-to-back which would've been a miracle.
 

Maximillian

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I think one thing to consider is how Sato would have done had she been judged appropriately, she was 7th in the SP, but was the first to skate in the event which must have affected her score, along with being Japanese number 2 and having not competed at Worlds the previous year. I really can't see how this program was rated below Bonaly or Hubert, the headband alone should have had her in the top 3, but: France.
 
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Miki89

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It's a hard question because Ito's planned content was unclear, and the others never even once landed all of their planned content.

It might be more meaningful to judge their best performances that season against each other?

Harding: 1991 Skate America (possibly with assumed landing of the 2A in the short program?)
Yamaguchi: 1991 Nationals? Or 1992 Worlds?
Ito: NHK or Lalique? (I forget which was better)
Kerrigan: no idea, always seemed to be a mess in terms of executing her planned content

If we based it on their best performances, I would have gone with Harding. Her 1991 Skate America performances are the only ones I really go back to rewatch from that season. Midori was legendary but Tonya was a better performer and arguably more musical. I think it would have been close technically. Some of Tonya's air positions could be better but Midori had a leg wrap. They both skated with a lot of power and speed. I always found Kristi's skating underwhelming, especially as an amateur skater, so she would be third.
 

VGThuy

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All I know if that if I had been following skating obsessively back then and been revving up for that Olympics thanks to the performances from earlier that season(s), I would have been severely disappointed in the actual skates. What a messy competition though Ito’s last minute Triple Axel was exciting.
 

olympic

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I thought the whole Olympics was a bit of a damp squib skating-wise; especially coming after Calgary which was just SO epic.

Yeah, not to derail the thread but the ladies going into Albertville in this quad - Midori, Tonya, Kristi and even Nancy and Surya took a huge step forward with regard to the jumps that quad, but the competition was a pretty meh.

I would also say the men's competition was a race to see who could just stand up as well
 

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