What are Jason's chances this season?

[skatemommy]

I hope he stays injury free Thiis season. He is so gracious to all his fans and will star outside the bus until every last autograph signed. He competed against two of my male s student beat them bad! I just love his skating; he is a breath of fresh iair! His ponytail was down to his rear back then..I thought to myself that this kid iis ooingi places. If my boys could of stuck with it, I think they would have been right up there with them. But dad is an IT freelancer and kept losing his job. This family is VERKRY frugal and we would barted for lawn work and beautiful hand made costumes. I passed 3 of my Gold Dances in them (for my gold medaland I I think it was because of them. I started wearing black over the boot tights in black to hide any unison issues. Can you tell I am a huge fan and I love Ro's choreography. He begged him to make a footwork pass easier and didn't back down. Now is so fas and furioiu . Can you tell I am a fan girl? We need an emoji with his picture.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Considering the level of skating and judging protocols for this coming season:

WITHOUT ONE Quad:

*Bronzes in GP events
*5-8 in other ISU events

WITH ONE Quad:

*Silver in GP events
*3-6 in other ISU events

WITH TWO Quads:

*Winner of GP events
*Podium finishes in other ISU events

 

[Bellanca]

Considering the level of skating and judging protocols for this coming season:

WITHOUT ONE Quad:

*Bronzes in GP events
*5-8 in other ISU events

WITH ONE Quad:

*Silver in GP events
*3-6 in other ISU events

WITH TWO Quads:

*Winner of GP events
*Podium finishes in other ISU events

Nice job, @AngieNikodinovLove. This pretty much spells it out where the sport is currently at.

Jason is good PR. He's a great guy! Hard not to root for, and if he wins something, usually everyone feels pretty good about it. These qualities can help an athlete in situations like making an Olympic team especially if they, or Jason, in this case, can skate clean and bring down the house, etc. And, TBTH, this has been a problem w/ USFS, and their getting caught up in just this type of incident and choosing to temporarily ignore that internationally the momentum is still leaning toward the quad guys or TES kings for the podium, and I kind of feel that it should. Oh boy, that might have put me at risk for Anyway, Jason could pull an Evan Lysacek, if he makes the team and goes to the Olympics. But, imagine the and ! It wouldn't bother me in the least if that were to happen because it is Jason, and I can root for him all day long. However, I get where posters like @misskarne are coming from.

 

[misskarne]

It wouldn't bother me in the least if that were to happen because it is Jason, and I can root for him all day long. However, I get where posters like @misskarne are coming from.

*lands in the thread with an unceremonious thump*

Ouch! Where am I coming from with what? I'd love to see Jason at the Olympics.

 

[Tavi]

Nice job, @AngieNikodinovLove. This pretty much spells it out where the sport is currently at.

Jason is good PR. He's a great guy! Hard not to root for, and if he wins something, usually everyone feels pretty good about it. These qualities can help an athlete in situations like making an Olympic team especially if they, or Jason, in this case, can skate clean and bring down the house, etc. And, TBTH, this has been a problem w/ USFS, and their getting caught up in just this type of incident and choosing to temporarily ignore that internationally the momentum is still leaning toward the quad guys or TES kings for the podium, and I kind of feel that it should. Oh boy, that might have put me at risk for Anyway, Jason could pull an Evan Lysacek, if he makes the team and goes to the Olympics. But, imagine the and ! It wouldn't bother me in the least if that were to happen because it is Jason, and I can root for him all day long. However, I get where posters like @misskarne are coming from.

I'm not gonna say anything about Jason other than that he's my favorite skater and that since we haven't seen his programs or the state of his quads - or those of his competitors - it's way too early to assess.

But in response to your point about quads and medals, I am curious as to what you think is the raison d'être for the Olympics. Because really, if it's only about medals, our Sochi team should have consisted solely of Davis and White, and maybe, maybe, maybe, Gracie.

 

[caseyedwards]

Considering the level of skating and judging protocols for this coming season:

WITHOUT ONE Quad:

*Bronzes in GP events
*5-8 in other ISU events

WITH ONE Quad:

*Silver in GP events
*3-6 in other ISU events

WITH TWO Quads:

*Winner of GP events
*Podium finishes in other ISU events

This is true.

He doesn't need any to be US champion.

 

[AxelAnnie]

First question
....chances for what?

Zip ... Zero...and Zilch on the world stage .
Probably .. maybe something at Nats....maybe a GP medal. But figure skating content has passed him by.

He needed a quad after his Riverdance season. And not less than 2 by now to be a contender.

Why did he never become proficient with a quad?

 

[Aerobicidal]

Chance of godlessness = 99.9%!!!

Chance of sucksessful complete four rotations of jump = same as chance that Tutberidze avoid knife of the surgeon for all of next decade!!!

Chance of 27 "trans-itions" airing crotch to skating fan = 99.8!!!

Chance of Asian fan wearing surgical mask over eyes to sheild from crotch = 99.79!!!

Chance of winning birth on USA Olympic team = same as chance of Tessa Virtue NOT giving birth before 2018 Olympic!!!

Chance of de-feeting Asian "American" skaters Nathen Chun and Victor Jowl = 0.00001%!!!

Chance of Ivana Komova choosing more interestesting and least godless subjects to interview 2017-18 season = 1,000,009%!!!!!!

 

[Bellanca]

*lands in the thread with an unceremonious thump*

Ouch! Where am I coming from with what? I'd love to see Jason at the Olympics.

Yes, I gathered as much, that you are a fan of Jason, as am I, and that you would be thrilled to have him on the team.

What I was referring to, is how it is a Quad/TES favorable environment in skating right now, which made me think of Max and the hurdles he might have to climb in order to make the team even though he has that TES strength, but could conceivably be left off the team (after Nationals) in favor of another skater. One who is thought to be a bit more of an artistic, sentimental pick because it is U.S. Nationals - and they have demonstrated they will do this. It could very well be someone other than Jason. Josh or Adam, for example. Or, someone who hasn't competed at the more prominent senior level events, yet.

I also get were you are coming from when you were/are comparing Max's experience, etc. to someone like Vincent. At least that was my first impression. This is primarily what I was commenting on, and not so much Jason at the end of my initial post.

 

[Bellanca]

I'm not gonna say anything about Jason other than that he's my favorite skater and that since we haven't seen his programs or the state of his quads - or those of his competitors - it's way too early to assess.

But in response to your point about quads and medals, I am curious as to what you think is the raison d'être for the Olympics. Because really, if it's only about medals, our Sochi team should have consisted solely of Davis and White, and maybe, maybe, maybe, Gracie.

True, very true.

I'm right there with you as far as the true nature and spirit of the Olympics, believe me! However, the podiums at these Olympics will be geared toward and probably filled up w/ the jumpers. JMHO.

 

[Marco]

With a consistent 4toe in both the short and free, he will make the Olympic team, and place top ten.

Without a consistent 4toe, his chances to make the Olympics will depend on Adam and Josh, and Vincent and even Max and Grant who can outjump Jason enough to overcome their relative shortcomings in PCS.

 

[antmanb]

Chance of godlessness = 99.9%!!!

Chance of sucksessful complete four rotations of jump = same as chance that Tutberidze avoid knife of the surgeon for all of next decade!!!

Chance of 27 "trans-itions" airing crotch to skating fan = 99.8!!!

Chance of Asian fan wearing surgical mask over eyes to sheild from crotch = 99.79!!!

Chance of winning birth on USA Olympic team = same as chance of Tessa Virtue NOT giving birth before 2018 Olympic!!!

Chance of de-feeting Asian "American" skaters Nathen Chun and Victor Jowl = 0.00001%!!!

Chance of Ivana Komova choosing more interestesting and least godless subjects to interview 2017-18 season = 1,000,009%!!!!!!

I think it's time Ivana started up a bookies

 

[Kultakissu]

Considering the level of skating and judging protocols for this coming season:

WITHOUT ONE Quad:

*Bronzes in GP events
*5-8 in other ISU events

WITH ONE Quad:

*Silver in GP events
*3-6 in other ISU events

WITH TWO Quads:

*Winner of GP events
*Podium finishes in other ISU events

This looks about right. I think he has a pretty good chance of making the Olympic team (thanks partly to Jason himself for managing to get three spots with Nathan), and a top ten finish there could be achievable. I don't see him on the podium - not even a little bit - but I personally don't care about that. Nathan will take care of the medals for those who need them.

Although if he can get a bronze in a GP, he can for sure win/come second at any Challenger event, and those are ISU events, are they not?

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

for sure win/come second at any Challenger event, and those are ISU events, are they not?

Yup I shoulda specified Worlds / 4 CC / Olys

 

[Jammers]

With a consistent 4toe in both the short and free, he will make the Olympic team, and place top ten.

Without a consistent 4toe, his chances to make the Olympics will depend on Adam and Josh, and Vincent and even Max and Grant who can outjump Jason enough to overcome their relative shortcomings in PCS.

A clean Jason even without a quad won't lose to Grant. And to be honest Adam really doesn't have a reliable quad either and Jason is a superior all around skater. As for Josh no one knows what to expect from him and Max is the one skater that has no room for error when it comes to his jumps since he will get beat in PCS.

 

[MAXSwagg]

Jason is the best overall skater the US has, and the quality in everything he does is not accurately reflected in the PCS; the only thing he doesn't have is a quad (at this point he needs quadS) and unfortunately that is a huge disadvantage. Nathan is successful because the system allows him to be from the quads. Adam's time is long passed, and I can't see any of the other US men show anything they haven't shown over the past 5 years. Josh is a question mark and the GP will show his worthiness of a spot. Vincent is developing and has great potential, and hopefully Tom Z doesn't waste that. Maybe Vincent should find a coach that's more focused on all-around skating so he doesn't go the route of Max.

 

[Marco]

While Vincent killed it at Nationals and Jr Worlds, I think it is still too early to tell how reliable he can be. Due to injury, he hasn't been able to establish a solid streak of strong performances at the Jr level, and he is barely debuting as a Sr. Let's see how he fares at the Sr GPs (jumps wise and PCS wise) before putting so much pressure and expectation on him.

I see his potential, and would love to see him do well. But until he delivers a strong fall and GP season, I don't know what basis everyone is using for giving him better odds than all the veterans who placed top 6 at Sr. Worlds in the past couple of years. Case in point, Karen Chen was promising as a Jr for a long time but it took her some time to finally get it together at Nationals and Worlds as a Sr. We just don't know yet.

 

[Marco]

A clean Jason even without a quad won't lose to Grant. And to be honest Adam really doesn't have a reliable quad either and Jason is a superior all around skater. As for Josh no one knows what to expect from him and Max is the one skater that has no room for error when it comes to his jumps since he will get beat in PCS.

I didn't mean a clean Jason. I think it's given that he will attempt the quad in both the short and free next season. So a quadless Jason implies a mistake in the short and another one in the long.

Grant typically tries 1 quad in the short and 2 quads in the long. If he pulls off one of those magical skates like he did at 2016 worlds, and Jason makes 2 mistakes over the course of competition, who knows what would happen.

Frankly I lump Jason and Adam as the same type/ style of skaters. Adam was also getting very competitive PCS and GOEs at 2016 Worlds when Jason wasn't there. Adam also seems to have a more solid/ consistent 3axel, although Jason's is also improved? As much as I was in awe over the beauty of Jason's skating at 2017 Worlds, Adam's Bird program really moved me. IIRC, they each did a clean free skate at the GPs last season. So if Jason messes up and Adam goes clean, Adam can certainly place ahead.

No one knows what to expect from Josh yes, but if he ever delivers, he is totally the best skater in the current bunch, all things considered. Just my opinion of course.

 

[Bellanca]

If USFS took a leap of faith with Polina, which I applauded them for, I think they might do the same with Vincent, especially if he has a constructive season.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

If USFS took a leap of faith with Polina, which I applauded them for, I think they might do the same with Vincent, especially if he has a constructive season.

I agree. I do think Nathan and Vincent are on the team as of today.

With the third spot likely going in order: Jason, Joshua, Adam

P.S. I actually don't think USFSA is taking a leap of faith with Vincent. He is Junior World Champion and US Silver Medalist. Right? Polina had none of that in '13.

 

[Bellanca]

P.S. I actually don't think USFSA is taking a leap of faith with Vincent. He is Junior World Champion and US Silver Medalist. Right? Polina had none of that in '13.

I agree with you, but, shhh, don't tell anyone!

 

[Tavi]

In 2013, Jason took silver at Junior Worlds and won the free skate with a gorgeous performance, 2 beautiful 3As, and the highest FS score that had ever been recorded for a junior man up to that point. Josh won overall but came second in the FS. Neither one was considered a shoe in for the team. Jason had to earn his spot. I hope it's the same for Vincent.

 

[clairecloutier]

To me, Vincent needs to prove himself like everyone else to deserve the team. Nathan proved last year in the GP series that he could put out very strong, competitive performances; let Vincent do the same.

The Polina comparisons ....Yeah USFSA put Polina on the team in 2014. What happened after that? One 4CCs title, and 2 anchor top 10 finishes at Worlds.

 

[Bellanca]

No one knows what to expect from Josh yes, but if he ever delivers, he is totally the best skater in the current bunch, all things considered. Just my opinion of course.

Oh yes, Josh! He could really shake things up! He might completely rock the boat. I call it ‘keeping them honest.’ It’s exciting, and I am very much looking forward to his return. Such a nice guy! Can’t wait!

 

[bardtoob]

He is such a beautiful skater that USFS will always have a spot for him, just like they did for Todd Eldredge.

 

[el henry]

Chances for making the Olympic team ... good, I hope. Team USA with Jason is a team I want to see.

Chances that he is working as hard on the quad as he does on everything else, being one of the most focused, competitive-minded and hard-working skaters out there .... 100%

Chances that he will consistently land quads in competition ... no flipping clue, pro or con.

Chances that I care .... less than zero (medals, medals, medals for the good old US of A never having been my focal point in watching skating. And yes, I know it's a sport )

Most importantly, chances that he will skate a program that will take my breath away.... 100%

 

[aftershocks]

Jason could pull an Evan Lysacek

What does that mean? Evan Lysacek was a favored skater politically, but he was also a very determined competitor with a great coach. Lysacek also landed 4/3 at U.S. Nationals in 2007 to win his first U.S. Natl championship. Lysacek also successfully landed and attempted quads in various international events. Remember that the quad was not highly valued in the scoring until after 2010 Olympics. Few men attempted quads at 2010 Olympics, because quads were not seen as crucial or needed to win. Plushenko thought otherwise, and he was piqued at being beaten by Lysacek. Coaches and competitors had complained about the quad not being given more credit for years prior to 2010. But it took the embarrassing public temper tantrum by Plush at 2010 Olympics for the ISU to suddenly decide to address the quad discrepancy in the scoring, which changed everything.

Can we please stop with accusing Lysacek of not having the ability to land quads. He didn't need quads to win gold at 2010 Vancouver Olympics. So that's not some kind of blame-worthy cross he should have to bear.

Why did he never become proficient with a quad?

Try springing high enough into the air to rotate 4 times in the blink of an eye and land cleanly on slippery ice and then maybe you can answer your own question.

It's certainly not for want of trying diligently that Jason has not yet fully and consistently mastered quads. Body structure and ability to gain enough height and rotate fast are obviously huge factors. Jason has been working hard to overcome the odds against him, so I wouldn't completely count him out. Confidence is also a factor, which can be impacted by judges' refusal to credit a skater for a fully rotated and cleanly landed quad, for whatever excuse regarding camera angles and nitpicking.

 

[olympic]

Lots of factors - I don't think a quadless Jason would necessarily miss the Olympic team. He might miss making the team only IF Adam or Joshua have a quad and Vincent adds another quad / improves another level on PCS. But if Adam and Joshua are par for the course and Vincent doesn't take bigger steps to improve, I estimate Jason would still make the team. If Jason has just one quad and skates as he did at the end of last season, he's 99.9% guaranteed a slot

 

[Bellanca]

Geez Louise! Is the heat (or the frost) getting to people?! We do have the AC thread for that.

Ok, here goes nothing:

1. Evan is an Olympic-worthy champion! He won the gold fair and square! Not every comment is meant to be an insult.

2. Vincent will need to EARN his spot on the team ... just like everyone else! Nathan, too! A poster hoping for one, or both, to make the team doesn't translate to shoo-in.

3. I'm not worried about medals, but USFS kind of likes them and Nationals will go how Nationals usually go! They have their favorites, too.

4. Polina has been injured, unfortunately. So, who knows what she could have accomplished the last season and a half.

5. Jason, Josh, Adam, and Max are definitely in contention to make the Olympic team, and ANY of these men could be on it, as well as some I didn't mention, but not on purpose.

6. I am (genuinely) a big fan of Plushy despite mentioning Evan, or vice-versa. Gotta do the CYA, or else...

 

[bardtoob]

Wow ... That's a lot of emoticons!