The next LADIES OLY Champion..expected or surprise this season?

[VGThuy]

I don't know, Fumie was still up there and a medal contender even if it turned out that she needed to attempt and complete all of her jumps and take advantage of a mistake by any of the big three to do so. Shizuka was having a so-so season and she could have had a 2005 Worlds like showing, and we knew Miki and Carolina were inconsistent. In Torino she didn't complete all of her jumps so couldn't take advantage of two of the top three making major errors. The introduction to level 4 spins and having 4 spins in the LP really hurt her, and it seems the IJS by the 2005-2006 season didn't play to her strengths the way the original 2003-2004 IJS did. She did end the season winning the silver at Worlds over Cohen who skated worse than she did in Torino. I actually thought Fumie was on her way of being one of those one-off post-Olympics world champion and then Kimmie skated.

 

[Marco]

It was such wrong timing for Fumie. She was the original almost girl that season.

At the Olympics short, she was already 'lucky' that Michelle w/d, and Miki and Carolina took themselves out of contention. Still, given the way the short was judged, she was decidedly behind the top 3 (and with good reasons). She needed mistakes by the top 3. It just turns out that Shizuka made 2, doubling out on 3/3 and the loop; Sasha made 2, falling out twice; and Irina also made 2, doubling the flip and falling on loop. If Fumie herself had just done what she did at Nationals she most likely would have medalled, even with her weaker COP programs.

At Worlds, her only real competitor was Sasha, and when she faltered, it really was Fumie's title to lose, and she did solidly well. Who would have thought a newbie like Kimmie would actually throw out a skate like that. And then the season after, Kimmie started to lose her jumps, and URs including pre-rotations got judged much more harshly. If either of these two things happened one season earlier, Fumie would have been World Champ in 2006.

 

[dawnie]

Shizuka was the one under the radar before Torino and she put herself in the mix by having amazing practice sessions. Also, Shizuka didn't double out on 3-3's in the free. She intentionally didn't attempt any because she knew a clean skate would win a medal. At that point, Japan was having their worst Olympics with zero medals won in any events. Not sure if it was Morozov, the JSF officials, herself, or a combination of all that decided after the warm-up (where it was obvious Cohen wasn't going to skate well) to just omit the 3-3's. She was landing 3lutz/3loop and 3salchow/3toe in practice (also 3-3-3's) and she was going to go for 3lutz/3loop in the SP but didn't have a good landing on the lutz. I am glad she won but let's be real, she played it safe and was skating for a medal- not the gold.

 

[asdf334]

She intentionally didn't attempt any because she knew a clean skate would win a medal.

I thought she had said she didn't plan on doing two, but the double on the other one was a mistake.

 

[Bellanca]

Shizuka was the one under the radar before Torino and she put herself in the mix by having amazing practice sessions. Also, Shizuka didn't double out on 3-3's in the free. She intentionally didn't attempt any because she knew a clean skate would win a medal. At that point, Japan was having their worst Olympics with zero medals won in any events. Not sure if it was Morozov, the JSF officials, herself, or a combination of all that decided after the warm-up (where it was obvious Cohen wasn't going to skate well) to just omit the 3-3's. She was landing 3lutz/3loop and 3salchow/3toe in practice (also 3-3-3's) and she was going to go for 3lutz/3loop in the SP but didn't have a good landing on the lutz. I am glad she won but let's be real, she played it safe and was skating for a medal- not the gold.

And holy cow did that piss off Christine Brennan !! ... Shizuka winning the gold!! I loved it!!, and not because it pissed off Chrissy, although that was at its best! But because Shizuka (underdog power!!) won!

ETA: Actually, Christine was pissy about Sasha's silver, too.

 

[bardtoob]

Arakawa told Morozov she wanted to do a 3/3 because the two previous Olympic Champions did 3/3, and Morozov replied, "But those were cheats and would not score well under the new system."

 

[Karpenko]

Arakawa's win felt so good at the time, she's still one of my favorites. I loved watching her confidence at that competition, her edges were so powerful and soft, the Ina Bauer, 3/3/3's way before Janny.

What made it especially rewarding was being a Kwan fan. Your last shred of hope is taken away from you at the last second , and you're left with Sasha Cohen or Irina Slutskaya as a potential OGM instead of her. talk about a nightmare.

(I love Irina and Sasha)

 

[VGThuy]

Shizuka was like a mix of Sasha and Irina's strengths.

Going back to Fumie, I loved the NBC commentary on her. Bezic said Fumie was the "most committed" to her choreography, and I really do agree with that. Fumie had an intensity to her skating with her choreography that she seemed so serious. I also loved Dick Button's response to her clean SP as he's been watching her for years thanks to ABC's contract with skating at the time. He said something along the lines of nerves and pressure and one can count on "little" Fumie Suguri to come out with a great or solid performance. I always had a soft spot for her even if her Rachmaninoff LP was probably the worst of her LPs in that whole Olympic cycle and her skating lost some of the ease and flow it had as she was attempting IJS elements. She already had rounded shoulders and unextended free legs and weird hook landings to her jumps, but IJS seemed to highlight those things even more.

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

Shizuka was like a mix of Sasha and Irina's strengths.

Fumie had an intensity to her skating ....I always had a soft spot for her .

I never really paid much attention to her but she was lovely. A willowy quality like Li Zijun but more steel in the jumps. Watch her anytime over Irina.

 

[Simone411]

Current betting odds by me.

Medvedeva EVEN
Osmond 8-1
Daleman 20-1
Miyahara 25-1
Higuchi 30-1
Zagitova 35-1
Chen 40-1
Kostner 40-1
Miahara 45-1
Choi 50-1
Wagner 50-1
Pogo 60-1
Radionova 70-1
So Youn Kim 75-1
Turzy 80-1
Gold 90-1
Sotskova 95-1

I like your style. I would also add Mirai Nagasu to that list because we truly don't know what may happen with her. I'd also give Ashley a little better odds than that, but that's just my opinion.

 

[Coco]

Arakawa told Morozov she wanted to do a 3/3 because the two previous Olympic Champions did 3/3, and Morozov replied, "But those were cheats and would not score well under the new system."

Did he actually say that? Lipinski's 3-3 and 3-3 series weren't cheated.

 

[Marco]

Shizuka was the one under the radar before Torino and she put herself in the mix by having amazing practice sessions. Also, Shizuka didn't double out on 3-3's in the free. She intentionally didn't attempt any because she knew a clean skate would win a medal. At that point, Japan was having their worst Olympics with zero medals won in any events. Not sure if it was Morozov, the JSF officials, herself, or a combination of all that decided after the warm-up (where it was obvious Cohen wasn't going to skate well) to just omit the 3-3's. She was landing 3lutz/3loop and 3salchow/3toe in practice (also 3-3-3's) and she was going to go for 3lutz/3loop in the SP but didn't have a good landing on the lutz. I am glad she won but let's be real, she played it safe and was skating for a medal- not the gold.

Well the solo loop was an obvious pop. If she had not planned a 3/3 when she started, then that also means she had a comparable BV with Fumie because both would only be attempting 6 triples.

 

[VGThuy]

Shizuka skated after Sasha who had two falls (Sasha herself didn't think she'd medal after that performance) and had a comfortable 4+ lead over Fumie. I think she was seriously just going for a medal and was encouraged to play it safe. That popped Loop was definitely a mistake, but in the end, she won.

Just for fun, Fumie's SP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8RNoX5Catw
I think her and Sasha's SP are two of the best performances of that ladies competition even if I understand why Fumie placed 4th after the SP (though I think her interpretation and choreography scores should have been higher than Shizuka and Irina's and arguably her skating skills score should have been higher than Sasha's). Oh well, at least the crowd loved it.

 

[Vash01]

IMO Virtue and Moir are much more likely to win the OGM in ice dance than Zhenya winning the ladies OGM, which has had surprise winners numerous times. Thus season is nowhere close to even starting. I hope Medvedeva wins it, with stellar performances in the Olympics. I do t expect a new style from her at this time. She needs to play it safe.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

Japan's Wakaba Higuchi and Mai Mihara were fantastic at the World Team Trophy. Great speed, powerful jumps and spins, and interesting programs, as well.

Higuchi was landing triple axels in practice, too. I would love to see them, along with Daleman and Osmond, feature somewhere in the equation.

Medvedeva reminds me of Witt in a lot of ways. Confident, well trained and a killer instinct. But a bit of a join the dots skater who is told what she needs to do and to work the system to win. I don't think she feels any of what she is putting out there.

 

[DimaToe]

FSU should totally re judge the 2006 ladies event. Oh the Would be fantastic.

 

[clairecloutier]

Japan's Wakaba Higuchi and Mai Mihara were fantastic at the World Team Trophy. Great speed, powerful jumps and spins, and interesting programs, as well.

Higuchi was landing triple axels in practice, too. I would love to see them, along with Daleman and Osmond, feature somewhere in the equation.

Medvedeva reminds me of Witt in a lot of ways. Confident, well trained and a killer instinct. But a bit of a join the dots skater who is told what she needs to do and to work the system to win. I don't think she feels any of what she is putting out there.

Totally agree with this ... I'd love to see Higuchi in the medal mix next year. She was one of my personal favorites at Worlds/WTT, and TBH I felt she was a bit underscored at both events. What I like about Wakaba is she's starting to really bring some passion and emotion, more so than a lot if the other girls IMO, plus she has those great knees and jumps. As for Mai Mahara, I love her skating skills and I'm hoping for better programs/artistry next season. I think she has a great base to her skating. Japanese Nationals is going to be crazy next year, with those 2 girls plus Marin and Kaori.

 

[Marco]

Totally agree with this ... I'd love to see Higuchi in the medal mix next year. She was one of my personal favorites at Worlds/WTT, and TBH I felt she was a bit underscored at both events. What I like about Wakaba is she's starting to really bring some passion and emotion, more so than a lot if the other girls IMO, plus she has those great knees and jumps. As for Mai Mahara, I love her skating skills and I'm hoping for better programs/artistry next season. I think she has a great base to her skating. Japanese Nationals is going to be crazy next year, with those 2 girls plus Marin and Kaori.

And don't forget Satoko.

 

[Bellanca]

Medvedeva reminds me of Witt in a lot of ways. Confident, well trained and a killer instinct. But a bit of a join the dots skater who is told what she needs to do and to work the system to win. I don't think she feels any of what she is putting out there.

In any other competition, if Janny has a mistake she would probably still win due to a one error (built-in) cushion that she enjoys, but at the Olympics, one little mess up and I can see the sands shifting, the upset, just because that is the nature of the Olympic Games. As of now, she is the one to beat.

IMHO, what makes Med stand apart from the others, at least for the moment, is that she has the mental fortitude to withstand the pressure of being the Olympic favorite which does lend itself to K. Witt comparisons.

 

[Vash01]

Japan's Wakaba Higuchi and Mai Mihara were fantastic at the World Team Trophy. Great speed, powerful jumps and spins, and interesting programs, as well.

Higuchi was landing triple axels in practice, too. I would love to see them, along with Daleman and Osmond, feature somewhere in the equation.

Medvedeva reminds me of Witt in a lot of ways. Confident, well trained and a killer instinct. But a bit of a join the dots skater who is told what she needs to do and to work the system to win. I don't think she feels any of what she is putting out there.

Med is much younger than Witt was in 1988. She started winning in her first season, and just finished her second season. At such a young age she is somewhat limited in what she can do artistically. Witt was weak technically, even by standards of those days. Zhenya is leading the field technically and that's why she is winning. IMO this comparison is unfair.

 

[LKR]

I am rooting for Zhenya Medvedeva to win the OGM, but I don't see her as unbeatable. I think the biggest threats to her would be Osmond and Gold, if Gracie makes a real comeback this season, and I think she can, with the new coach. Zagitova has the technical goods and competitive spirit, but her PCS may not get in the OGM range this season. I don't see any other Russian lady dethroning Zhenya, this close to the Olympics. The RSF will ensure that, just in case Zhenya has a bad day.

I can't see how Gold is in the picture here when she couldn't even beat Medvedeva in her prime. She had two chances to do so, at 2015 SA and 2016 Worlds (conveniently both in the U.S.), and Medvedeva is even better now than she was then. Gold would've needed a Nationals Firebird at Worlds, which would've gone completely against her competitive history as she has never skated two clean programs in senior competition. Medvedeva and Zagitova have done that several times in one season.

I know it was an exhibition in May, but Gold was struggling to pull in for a double toe loop. She has to suddenly get back all her triples in addition to IJS spins, steps, and choreo, on top of getting two new programs. A lot to ask. Perhaps there is still enough time to get back in shape, but the much bigger question is her motivation, which seems completely absent right now.

 

[Wyliefan]

If I were a betting woman, I'd have serious money on Janny. She has nerves of steel in addition to everything else she has going for her, and that always seems to make a major difference at the Olympics.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

Med is much younger than Witt was in 1988. She started winning in her first season, and just finished her second season. At such a young age she is somewhat limited in what she can do artistically. Witt was weak technically, even by standards of those days. Zhenya is leading the field technically and that's why she is winning. IMO this comparison is unfair.

Back in the day, compulsory figures held Witt back in her first few years. Had they not been there, she would probably have placed higher a lot earlier.

Back in 1979 and 1980, Katarina had comparative technical content to the rest of the field, and was landing triple jumps in her first two year of international competition.

Witt does have 2 Olympic Golds, 4 World and 6 European titles. So, that should count for something.

If you think Witt was weak technically, I would disagree. She was the ultimate strategist, and knew when she was on the top of her game, what she needed to include to win. That is one of the reasons why so many of her closest rivals like Thomas, Kondrashova, Ivanova, and Kadavy crumbled.

Back when triples were still a bit of a novelty, the above skaters simply did not know what Witt would do.

 

[Bellanca]

Med is much younger than Witt was in 1988. She started winning in her first season, and just finished her second season. At such a young age she is somewhat limited in what she can do artistically. Witt was weak technically, even by standards of those days. Zhenya is leading the field technically and that's why she is winning. IMO this comparison is unfair.

I wouldn’t compare their skating skills, strengths, and styles, at all, necessarily. They are unique, IMHO. For me, the comparison between the two, Evgenia and Katarina, is the mindset, the approach to competition. Katarina had nerves of steel, and I know, a lot of skaters did, and do. But, Katarina’s confidence? Well, that was different, somehow. Witt was, indeed, very confident, just ask Rosalynn Sumners and Debi Thomas about that. If you wanted to win, you had to go through Katarina first! Make no mistake! This wasn’t cockiness or arrogance (although, some of her ‘rivals’ might strongly disagree) but, instead, complete confidence - a quiet, almost unassuming confidence, in her abilities to defeat her competitors and let them know it. Was Witt super-human? Of course not, as she did lose a World title, but she was tough to defeat, particularly at the Olympic Games.

Fast-forward to the present, where I see the same (competitive mindset) parallels in Evgenia. Now, If Med does not win the Olympic gold, then the Witt comparison is invalid, IMHO because you have to win the Olympic gold, and win it confidently to be compared to and categorized with Witt. Yuna came the closest in the confidence category, but Katarina’s confidence … was legendary. It is an honor, to be compared, even if just a little, to Katarina Witt. She was the complete package, a dominating skater in her discipline, during her time, and beyond.

The Olympic Games are the pressure cooker of all pressure cookers, no matter what decade we are talking about. So, we’ll see.

 

[LKR]

What was unique about Witt is she had this uncanny ability to do exactly what was required to win, no more, no less. She rarely skated a completely clean free skate with all her planned content. Looking at her competitive record you would assume she blew the competition out of the ballpark, but few of her wins were blowouts including (and especially) her two Olympic golds. The one time she needed a perfect program was arguably the one time she delivered it, at Cincinnati 1987 Worlds. To skate last and beat Thomas's excellent skate in front of a partisan crowd, that's a competitor.

 

[bardtoob]

Did he actually say that? Lipinski's 3-3 and 3-3 series weren't cheated.

. . . Tara did not complete under the IJS so it's not worth arguing . . . Morzov gave decent coaching advice given the situation . . . I will see if I can find the source.

 

[Dobre]

To skate last and beat Thomas's excellent skate in front of a partisan crowd, that's a competitor.

I would say a competitor is a young woman who can win her second Olympic games when she knows that gold is the only medal that will win her a ticket out of East Germany and into a professional skating career.