Apart from point differential, we should also consider if a skater skated as well as they can in that segment, too. Malinin vs Brown, apart from Brown's glitch in the camel spin, was them skating their best, and Malinin still came out ahead. And that too with Nationals scoring happening at a much greater extent for Brown.
USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for 2022 Olympics
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Karen-W
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Interestingly enough, I've been running a variety of scenarios for the TE with the likely skaters from each country, using their scores from their fall competitions - median score, best score, worst score - and Brown's SP scores hold up surprisingly well. His median SP score is 3rd highest, his worst SP score is the HIGHEST, and his best SP score is 5th highest. I know some of us have been complaining about his consistently lower Top 10 scores shouldn't merit him being a member of the Olympic team, but I'll have to admit that those who insisted Brown is actually valuable for the TE have a sound argument. I'd have bought into it earlier had anyone bothered with running the numbers and proving it, so meh to all of you who couldn't be bothered with providing some data to back up your gut instinct assertions. Again, the USA's chances at winning gold are going to be contingent upon whether or not Russia uses SinKats in either segment and how the pairs results (in both segments) shake out, and while it would certainly be better if we had Nathan in the SP, using Brown (and Bell) doesn't take the USA out of the race at all (but using C-G/L instead of K/F would, much as it pains me to say that as a fan of them, even though I was pretty sure of this already based on some earlier looks at the data I made after Golden Spin).
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aka_gerbil
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Nathan is dealing with an injury and skipped the gala. It’s part of the speculation as to why he might opt out of the team event.
Let's just say for junior levels.
The Olympic team was predetermined. The Worlds team, largely, also predetermined. So, 4CCs? OK. Still doesn't need all the pomp this event had.
Again, the "top competitors at the senior level" didn't need to be here. I am sure they will regret it if it turns out they can't go to the Olympics which to them was the actual point of this competition. Or hey, maybe they just wanted those Olympic guitars. I know I would, but probably not at this event.
Junior skaters, hopefully, don't end up contracting the illness. No vaccination to go around in the US for under 18s, IIRC? Because then, it won't matter which "funding envelope" they get. Unless they want to use it for their hospital charges, of course.
Yes, I see how incredibly important this must be during the pandemic. Hopefully, some of them weren't too old, and didn't celebrate their successes for too long. How many red cups do you think they used, by the way?
Because, of course, in no way can this be done without an audience. And I'm sure the "potential stars" can't watch the "current stars" on TV, or literally ever before Nationals. I'm sure Malinin wished he weren't watching any of the "current stars" at all right about now, but what do I know?
And hopefully, these contracts will be able to fund the mass funerals that might happen, one day. Extremely important to maintain them, at the cost of death.
Yes, again, extremely important for these "qualified to Nationals for the first/only time" skaters to skate here. Won't give them any funding, might as well add further medical bills. Maybe it's a way to get them to retire so they don't spend even more.
Yes, so that in 2026, they can ignore more URs and give more ridiculous GOE. Very important.
Oh, OK. So the reason you deleted the part of my post saying, specifically, that they were holding a superspreader event with a predetermined team, clearly talking about these nationals in 2022, and gave me this response, was what precisely?
"To pretend that someone doesn't know what nationals are and gain some likes on a forum because I like doing that", maybe?
Karen-W
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No, vaccinations are available for 12+ in the US. I'm not sure any of the junior competitors were 12 or younger.
Well, he seems pretty stunned/astounded at how his IG followers have blown up to 18k over the weekend thanks to NBC promoting it before both his SP and FS. And during his IG live today he said the men's skaters he most admires/looks up to are Nathan, Vincent, Jason and Hanyu, so I imagine he was pretty chuffed to be sharing a podium with 3 of those guys.
As far as the rest of your post goes... It sounds a bit on the histrionic/fear-mongering side of the topic of holding events where lots of people are gathered in one place during these p**demic times, but everyone was able to assess their own risk levels and go or not go, so I'm sure it will be fine in the long run.
Oh no. I hope it isn't serious and skipping the gala is for immediate isolation / reducing further exposure more than anything. He doesn't even have to skate here.
misskarne
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Some of us aren't that surprised.
Logical fallacy to say Brown's SP actually "contributes" to TE because the best scenario is obviously to use your No.1 for both SP and FS. If Chen would do one event it would be the SP, so JB is completely useless. If Nathan does skip the whole thing there is no reason to "save" either Zhou or Brown. Might as well split the women.
Bottomline is no reasonable person in this position shall skip over a young promising guy jumping really solid 4lz and multiple different quads to pick someone who hasn't stood up a single quad once (that I remember anyway). It can only be described as insane. This is a sport, not a corporate ladder. Brown advocates like to confuse people because they, like the selection committee somehow thinks the selection guideline is not there to choose the best athlete to represent the country at the Olympics, but a loophole to maneuver their favorite onto a team.
Bottomline is no reasonable person in this position shall skip over a young promising guy jumping really solid 4lz and multiple different quads to pick someone who hasn't stood up a single quad once (that I remember anyway). It can only be described as insane. This is a sport, not a corporate ladder. Brown advocates like to confuse people because they, like the selection committee somehow thinks the selection guideline is not there to choose the best athlete to represent the country at the Olympics, but a loophole to maneuver their favorite onto a team.
I mean, I can’t speak for everyone else, but I get paid to argue about things with actual numbers for my real job. I’m not going to spend that kind of time on research around here for free.
But seriously, Jason’s scores have been right there all season and I don’t think most of his detractors really understand the value of his consistency. One of the striking things about the season for me is that so many of the men have been unable to put together two programs in a single competition. (Ilia’s showing in Austria was disappointing, but also pretty normal by 2021-22 standards.) Jason has landed on podiums and even won Finlandia by virtue of being the one guy who didn’t blow it in either program. He made the GP Final by being one of the few medalists who didn’t bomb either event. Not saying it’s going to get him all the way to an Olympic podium, but I think he potentially places higher than people expect because that’s the state of men’s skating right now. I think a lot of people who don’t like his skating are also missing the forest for the trees in terms of his competitive abilities.
AYS
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In addition to the consistency aspect, these results also reflect the fact that Jason is one of the best skaters in the world across all non-quad and 3axel elements - the quality of his triples, PCS, spins, step seq, Ch elements (maybe the best). That adds up in performance after performance and outweighs more base score advantage others have from multiple quad attempts than you might expect.I mean, I can’t speak for everyone else, but I get paid to argue about things with actual numbers for my real job. I’m not going to spend that kind of time on research around here for free.
But seriously, Jason’s scores have been right there all season and I don’t think most of his detractors really understand the value of his consistency. One of the striking things about the season for me is that so many of the men have been unable to put together two programs in a single competition. (Ilia’s showing in Austria was disappointing, but also pretty normal by 2021-22 standards.) Jason has landed on podiums and even won Finlandia by virtue of being the one guy who didn’t blow it in either program. He made the GP Final by being one of the few medalists who didn’t bomb either event. Not saying it’s going to get him all the way to an Olympic podium, but I think he potentially places higher than people expect because that’s the state of men’s skating right now. I think a lot of people who don’t like his skating are also missing the forest for the trees in terms of his competitive abilities.
Yes but it is also early in the season. Where men who are doing harder content than him are getting use to their programs and content.
Realistically if they skate clean or well Japan, Russia, and Canada’s top men could come out ahead of him if they skate clean in the short. They all did so at Worlds last year all it takes is them just skating well.
Whereas with mistakes Nathan and Zhao might come out ahead. Furthermore this is the discipline team USA really needs a first or a second.
What happens to if Canada’s lady with her 3/3 places ahead of the US women which could happen. And in Japan know has a very very good pair team and may now finish ahead of the US in all but one discipline.
They need to maximize their men.
Jason isn’t not in control of his own destiny and team USA will not be in control of their own destiny if they use him in the team event.
There is even an article where another country’s reporter said oh it’s wonderful for us the US isn’t taking the prodigy.
Having a strategy of hoping for others to fall isn’t a good one.
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Yes. The whole structure of IJS discourages big picture thinking, but that’s really been Jason’s strength and it’s always been worth more points than people realize. There’s a reason we’ve been having this same damn conversation since he was a junior who kept winning medals without a triple axel. He doesn’t win just on some kind of flimsy unquantifiable “artistic” merit, he packs a lot of technical content into his programs and then hits it. He’s a good athlete and always has been. People who are only counting jump rotations have a fundamental misunderstanding of how the scoring works.
I would not say all three Japanese men are just jump rotations. I would not say Chen is just jump rotations. Keegan isn’t just jump rotations either.
Russia’s Kolyoda is a breathtakingly beautiful skater no one has his posture.
Yes this sport is about both but there other men who have both.
Absolutely agree. None of the men at that level are “just” jumpers, but very few of them truly excel on all the elements across the board the way Jason does. I don’t think Jason is going to beat Nathan or the Japanese men at the Olys, but besides maybe Vincent, I doubt anyone else has much of a chance either. Keegan and Kolyada are both great when they’re on, but they’re both pretty hit-or-miss. He doesn’t lag behind those guys. He’s their direct competitor and has proven (this season) that he’s capable of beating them. Might depend on the day, but that’s just the nature of sports.
VGThuy
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I just want to say that all-around, it think it's good that almost all of the U.S. Olympic team haven't seemed to peak at Nationals. We kind of wish certain members had much better showings, but that's how some of them are. Hopefully, they'll peak at the right time in February.
He doesn’t excel at all elements across the board. Jump content matters. The other guys are hit and miss because they are doing much harder jump content. They would be more consistent to if their hardest jump was a triple axel.
I am sorry Jason only beats them when they mess up.
I wonder if the goals of the whole Olympic selection criteria is that those who are favorites for the team can pace themselves better to peak for the Olympics. If the be all and end all to get to the Olympics is nationals, then it’s easy for athletes to run out of gas for the games after they performed amazingly at nationals.I just want to say that all-around, it think it's good that almost all of the U.S. Olympic team haven't seemed to peak at Nationals. We kind of wish certain members had much better showings, but that's how some of them are. Hopefully, they'll peak at the right time in February.
One thing that they may have also considered for Ilia, is that it might be hard/impossible for him to skate as well at the Olympics. I guess since he would be the third person on the team, he doesn’t need to skate as well… but anyway, we will see how this all pans out.
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VGThuy
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And that’s competition. If the other men keep messing up to the point where Jason regularly beats them, then do they truly have higher tech content or are they just chucking skills they can’t really do consistently?
Baby Yoda On Skates
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cough Jeffrey Buttle cough
I do think there are some men who experiment with their layouts early on to see what they can reasonably achieve by the end of the season. Nathan started out with a crazy 6 quad layout and quickly realized how unrealistic it was. Perhaps he will also drop the 2nd 4F he fell on and instead go for a safer 4T. Similarly I think Vincent should drop his 2nd 4Lz, and Kolyada should drop the 4S altogether. And don't get me started on Shoma's layout!
VGThuy
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Isn’t Vincent’s quad Lutz usually his money maker quad? It’s his Sal that usually gives him rotation issues…among other issues with other quads.
Exactly. It’s a different approach to tech content. It doesn’t make Jason a lesser athlete, it just makes him a different one. Nathan and the top three Japanese men are really the only guys in the world who can pretty consistently throw down lots of the most difficult jumps and score high on other tech elements and do well on the PCS side. Everyone is just trying to score points wherever they have the best opportunity to do so. IJS encourages risk-taking on the jumps because there’s a big payoff when it works. Jason has been most successful when he doesn’t obsess about the jumps and maxes out the points on a well-rounded program instead. It just drives some people bonkers because it’s not the most obvious or conventional approach under IJS.
Only the first 4Lz. He runs into trouble when he tries to add a second, backloaded 4Lz. I could be wrong but I don't think he's ever been successful with it.
Karen-W
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Guys, all I said was Jason's scores wouldn't kill the USA's chances outright at gold in the TE. Using Nathan would be, in the case of either a median or best scores scenario, be MUCH better for the USA because we'd likely earn 1st place points. I don't think it says all that much great about Jason that he would get 1st place points in an "everyone's worst skate of the season" scenario because the likelihood of that happening is very low (remember Bychenko in 2018). What Jason's potential placement in the median or best score scenarios says is the rest of the field is wildly inconsistent and he's not so much. He would be 5th in a BEST scores scenario (Uno, Jin, Grassl & Kvitelashvili all have higher SP scores this season), whereas Nathan would be 6th in a WORST scores scenario (that SkAm SP is pretty useful in retrospect, lol).
This isn't a situation like in the women where it really doesn't matter whether we use Liu or Bell, since the placement of either woman relative to the rest of the field is fairly static (3rd, maybe 4th in the SP, 3rd in the FS). Using Brown comes with an obvious downside since his ceiling is MUCH lower than Chen. Even a 1-mistake Nathan is likely to score higher than a clean Brown. But, as I said last night, using Brown isn't the potential death knell to the USA's chances at gold the same way using Cain-Gribble/LeDuc over Knierim/Frazier would be.
It is nice that the USA does have several paths to gold open to it, but nothing is guaranteed, so we'll see what happens in a few weeks and which skaters are used in each discipline by Russia, Japan, and Canada.
This isn't a situation like in the women where it really doesn't matter whether we use Liu or Bell, since the placement of either woman relative to the rest of the field is fairly static (3rd, maybe 4th in the SP, 3rd in the FS). Using Brown comes with an obvious downside since his ceiling is MUCH lower than Chen. Even a 1-mistake Nathan is likely to score higher than a clean Brown. But, as I said last night, using Brown isn't the potential death knell to the USA's chances at gold the same way using Cain-Gribble/LeDuc over Knierim/Frazier would be.
It is nice that the USA does have several paths to gold open to it, but nothing is guaranteed, so we'll see what happens in a few weeks and which skaters are used in each discipline by Russia, Japan, and Canada.
I don’t think anyone would seriously argue that we should use Jason instead of Nathan in the team event, so… yeah. Of course.
We’re not going to get a “BEST scores scenario” because a lot of those men are wildly inconsistent and there’s no way all of them hit. There are also others probably capable of scoring better than they have previously this season. (Keegan comes to mind.) Jason obviously isn’t the most high-powered option we have for the SP score, but yeah, he’ll be fine if we need him.
Karen-W
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I agree. More likely, we'll have a median score scenario where some guys are better than usual and other guys not so much. In that situation, Jason would place 3rd in the SP, which really isn't terrible. It also demonstrates just how wildly inconsistent these guys really are, lol.
Not sure if this has already been mentioned and if so I apologize, but looking only at internationals, Grassl’s high SP score this season (95.47) was at GP Italy - ie there was undoubtedly some home scoring there; his other international scores ranged from 70-81. Boyang also had a high score in Italy, but since his only other international competition was Asian Trophy (85) his potential is harder to gauge. Like Grassl, Morisi has one high score from Rostelecom (95+); his others range from 58-76. Oddly enough, Kolyada’s highest score is also from Italy (92+); his other scores were in the 82-84 range. While I’m sure all of these guys will be peaking at the Olympics, their track records don’t necessarily indicate they’ll be strong contenders in the TE SP. Most of Keegan’s scores cluster around the 90-93 mark, with one outlier (85+). The Japanese men are generally much stronger and more consistent; although both Yuma (80+) and Shoma (89+) have had one “low” score this season, they’ve both scored in high 90s-100+ otherwise. But basically, it looks to me like even if Nathan chooses not to participate in the TE, the US is in pretty good shape for the TE SP.
Karen-W
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Grassl was really good in the SP at GP Italia, regardless of any potential home field advantage (which really was more of a thing that happened in the FS, to be honest). All of the guys except Kolyada have had one really good, mostly clean SP this season.
I don’t disagree. I guess I just find it useful to consider that, for example, out of 4 international competitions this season, Grassl and Morisi only hit 95+ once, and their other scores weren’t even close. Since they and others will all be trying to peak for the Olympics (though I’m sure most will be holding back a bit in team event so their true peak is in the individual event) I’m sure most of them will be better than their lowest scores. It’s more a question of their consistency, if that makes sense.
Karen-W
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That's why my preferred scenario is the one that uses the median scores rather than best or worst.
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