U.S. Women [#8]: Meet Me in St. Louis

[Debbie S]

I'm a big Amber fan and I want either her or Kaori to win the individual OGM. But I would put Alysa in the TE. She may not have the highest TES ceiling but she has a record of consistently landing her jumps in pressure situations.

 

[tangerine dream]

I'm a big Amber fan and I want either her or Kaori to win the individual OGM. But I would put Alysa in the TE. She may not have the highest TES ceiling but she has a record of consistently landing her jumps in pressure situations.

We could have a 2014 repeat where Alysa (Lipnitskaya) is the star of the team event and Amber (Sotnikova) wins the individual event.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

And we just don’t know which Amber will show up. That’s the problem.

Frankly, if I were on the US team I’d love to have the Alysa vibe.

? This entire year and last year as well… There’s only one version of amber.

Let’s have a Alysa do a triple axle and see what her success rate is, Amber is at 90% this year. Amber has done 10 triple axels this year with a grand total of one miss. Can Midori claim that? Can Harding claim that? Can Tuk claim that?

Amber did not miss in her challenger, Amber did not miss in her first Grand Prix, Amber did not miss in her second Grand Prix, won all three of those, advance to the Grand Prix final and she misses the triple axle in the short program, and everything else is fine and does a good long program.

Everybody keeps thinking of amber from 2021 and 2022, things have changed. But the people’s opinions here have not.

Alysa has won worlds and a Grand Prix final. Last year she won zero Grand Prix and did not medal at four continents.

Amber has won a Grand Prix final, every single Grand Prix event and challenger for the last two straight years. And is a three time consecutive US champion which Alysa hasn’t won since she was 14.

What else do some people want? OK, so she finished fifth at worlds, how awful lol. Don’t forget Alysa couldnt medal at four continents.

ALSO cannot medal this year even at Lombardia … Let’s get a grip here lol Cut to three weeks later, and Amber takes a Nebelhorn title. And more competitors.

Alysa may very well get both at the TE and that’s great and will do amazing but some people need to recheck their opinion of Amber.

#JustSayingKittyCats

 

[Karen-W]

#JustSayingKittyCats - hey, don't try to memory hole her Worlds SP just because it wasn't THIS season.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

#JustSayingKittyCats - hey, don't try to memory hole her Worlds SP just because it wasn't THIS season.

Did you even read my post? Above?

Alysa didn’t medal at Lombardia or four continents. Much easier fare.

Let’s talk this season in Italy in September, and contrast that at Nebelhorn in Germany. OK let’s stay on this season. Amber two Grand Prix medals that are gold Alysa one skate America. HomeCourt advantage.

They are both beyond terrific, but yeah, Amber goes for ultra C, absolutely no other women in the United States does at all, one person talks about it, but then doesnt do it.

But I ain’t arguing with you especially when the Bailey’s bottle is dry.

Over and out for the night.

 

[skatfan]

? This entire year and last year as well… There’s only one version of amber.

Amber did not miss in her challenger, Amber did not miss in her first Grand Prix, Amber did not miss in her second Grand Prix, won all three of those

She came in 2nd in Finlandia.

Amber has won a Grand Prix final, every single Grand Prix event and challenger for the last two straight years.

No she had a first and second in the Grand Prix this fall and finished fourth in the Final.

And is a three time consecutive US champion which Alysa hasn’t won since she was 14

True. Alysa has beat her at the two major internationals in the past year. I’ll also mention Alysa has two World medals and experience at the Olympics. Amber has neither.

I love them both, I’ll cheer whoever the USFS picks, but I still give the edge to Alysa.

 

[PRlady]

I think if the women are split, it’s really bad for Isabeau, as I posted above. If they aren’t going to split, I choose Alysa because she’s nerveless, has Oly experience and is six years younger than Amber - we have all seen the effects of age on some skaters this season. Amber isn’t a granny but it takes longer to bounce back the more years you have in a sport.

 

[Allskate]

? This entire year and last year as well… There’s only one version of amber.

Let’s have a Alisa do a triple axle and see what her success rate is, Amber is at 80% this year. With a grand total of one miss.

Amber did not miss in her challenger, Amber did not miss in her first Grand Prix, Amber did not miss in her second Grand Prix, won both of those, advance to the Grand Prix final and she misses the triple axle in the short program, and everything else is fine and does a good long program.

I think you could make the case for either Alysa or Amber. They have each beaten each other during the past year.

I think Amber has a very consistent triple axel. More consistent than most of the American men. (So, maybe Alysa is right about putting Amber in the men's SP. )

But, to be fair, Alysa has had a very consistent lutz/loop that she does in the back half of her short program. And that makes up some of the difference in the base value. Also, there is more to the programs than those specific jumps or the technical content.

Unfortunately, I think that Alysa is seen as more consistent, especially under pressure. I thought it was pretty obnoxious of Justin Dillon to mention the triple loop when he was telling Amber that she made the Olympic team. He didn't make a similar comment to Alysa even though she was short on the rotation of her triple loop in the LP this week and mentioned it herself.

I also think that the judges tend to give Alysa, the World Champion, more of the benefit of the doubt, including on PCS. Fair or not, that is something they could consider when deciding who will do the TE.

I love them both. I think you could make an argument for either of them. I will be very happy for one of them. And I will be very sad for the other. And I will be sad for Isabeau, who loves team competitions and being with her skater friends and who also will have to sit and watch as American skaters who aren't nearly as successful as her get to compete in the TE. (I think Isabeau had one of the best competitions of her life this week even though she admitted feeling a lot of pressure.)

 

[Karen-W]

Did you even read my post? Above?

Alysa didn’t even medal at Lombardia or four continents.

So, you're holding it against Alysa that she didn't medal at a Challenger where she was dealing with major boot issues? Because once she sorted those out, she's been blade-perfect in every competition since. And you really want to go there about failing to medal at 4CCs last year when she hadn't even been back on the ice training full-time 9 months at that point and was still building back her competition stamina?

Out of the major competitions Amber has competed in during the past 2 seasons (GPFs, Nationals, Worlds), her success rate on the 3A in the SP has been 2 for 5 with no issues and positive GOE.

2025-26 GPF - popped into a 1A
2025 Worlds - fall
2025 Nationals - q with -2.51 GOE

She does better with it (and overall) in the FS and, in a perfect world, we'd split the women for the TE. But, if you're asking who is a better bet in a high-pressure, major competition to go clean and put up a score that will place no worse than 2nd, specifically in the SP, then I'm putting my money on Alysa. And if you're telling me that we're not splitting the women for the TE, then the smart strategic choice is to go with your stronger, surer SP skater who hasn't failed to deliver yet (even at Lombardia where her boot issues caught up with her in the FS).

This isn't a matter of feeling like it's necessarily right or fair to not use Amber in the TE, but Justin Dillon made it clear in the post-event press conference today that they have to take into consideration the entire Olympic schedule when selecting the Team Event participants, as well as the individual medal chances for the athletes in every discipline. Those two factors alone make it more than likely that the women won't be split and it sucks for whichever woman doesn't get selected if that turns out to be the case. But, if I'm in Justin Dillon's shoes and I'm forced to choose just one woman, I'm going with Alysa. Her scoring potential may be slightly lower but her hit ratio in major competitions over the past two seasons is 100% and Amber's is 40%.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I thought it was pretty obnoxious of Justin Dillon to mention the triple loop when he was telling Amber that she made the Olympic team.

He made that comment because Amber had just said that herself to Andrea Joyce in the interview. Justin was quoting Amber.

Amber said she wants to go back and work with the choreographer about the triple loop. So then Justin brought that up because Amber said it.

I love them both I think even equally. They both have so much great stuff. It just irks me a bit when people talk about Amber as if they’re talking about the version from years ago.

Amber has competed 11 times in two years so far and has nine golds… I just don’t know what else people want.

You mention about Alysa handling pressure better, but not at Lombardia, I think people need to go to back and rewatch that. And Amber’s defeated Alysa twice this year and Alysa defeated Amber once this year. So I just don’t understand some peoples rationale.

Both will kill it in the team event. Whoever gets it, I think it should be split because their scores are just about the same right now and I do think Ilia is such a machine he could do six performances at the Olympics and take them all.

So in two years so far Amber has completed 11 times and out of those 11 times has 9 Golds.

 

[Allskate]

I think if the women are split, it’s really bad for Isabeau, as I posted above.

I think she will be seen as number 3 even if they don't split. Notice that nobody has put her in the conversation for the TE in this thread.

And, it's possible it actually will help Isabeau not to be in the TE. At first, I thought she had bad luck just missing out on the GP Final due to being assigned to a GP with incredible performances by three Japanese skaters. But, it may have been good luck. Missing the GP Final gave her time to break in new boots and focus on improving her skating. She was skating very well earlier this season, but she was even better at Nationals. Her jumps were bigger and smoother and her spins were better as well. She skated with ease and security and did a great job interpreting the music.

Maybe she will similarly benefit from not doing the TE. Although she is eager to enjoy the Olympic Village, that is not nearly as energy draining as competing. And, as she has said, she thrives when she has distractions.

My takeaway from what Justin said at the press conference is that they are concerned about the schedule, so I think there is going to be one woman.

 

[Allskate]

He made that comment because Amber had just said that herself to Andrea Joyce in the interview. Justin was quoting Amber.

Still totally unnecessary in the context of a celebratory meeting. It rubbed me the wrong way. But, then again, I'm not a fan of his generally.

 

[tangerine dream]

? This entire year and last year as well… There’s only one version of amber.

Let’s have a Alysa do a triple axle and see what her success rate is, Amber is at 90% this year. Amber has done 10 triple axels this year with a grand total of one miss. Can Midori claim that? Can Harding claim that? Can Tuk claim that?

Amber did not miss in her challenger, Amber did not miss in her first Grand Prix, Amber did not miss in her second Grand Prix, won all three of those, advance to the Grand Prix final and she misses the triple axle in the short program, and everything else is fine and does a good long program.

Everybody keeps thinking of amber from 2021 and 2022, things have changed. But the people’s opinions here have not.

Alysa has won worlds and a Grand Prix final. Last year she won zero Grand Prix and did not medal at four continents.

Amber has won a Grand Prix final, every single Grand Prix event and challenger for the last two straight years. And is a three time consecutive US champion which Alysa hasn’t won since she was 14.

What else do some people want? OK, so she finished fifth at worlds, how awful lol. Don’t forget Alysa could not even medal at four continents.

ALSO cannot even medal this year even at Lombardia … Let’s get a grip here lol Cut to three weeks later, and Amber takes a Nebelhorn title. And more competitors.

Alysa may very well get both at the TE and that’s great but some people need to recheck their opinion of Amber.

#JustSayingKittyCats

I don't think anyone here thinks Amber isn't worthy or isn't good enough. If the Olympic team was Amber, Sarah, and Starr, I'm pretty sure just about everyone would want Amber doing the team event. It has everything to do with Alysa and her incredible consistency and calm disposition under pressure. Sure, if both skate their best Amber will probably always beat Alysa by a few points because of her amazing triple axels. They were close to their best at Nats and the difference in scores across two programs was less than 5 points. In the team event the SP is so, so important. It is worth so much more than the LP and Alysa is just so consistent there. I just checked their SP scores from worlds, world team trophy, GPs this season, and the GPF and Alysa's range between 73.73 and 75.70 (Amber from 63.70 to 75.72). From the same competitions, Alysa's total scores range from 212.07 to 226.67 (Amber from 205.65 to 214.78).