U.S. Ladies [#17]: Heading to Helsinki in a Handbasket

[Sasha'sSpins]

Try this:

https://www.bellazon.com/main/uploads/monthly_12_2010/post-44476-1292124623_thumb.jpg

I don't see how anyone except someone with red-green colorblindness would think that it's anything but green.

Ok, now THAT looks green! Back in '97-'98 we still had our old '80s tv. Maybe that's why the dress looked black to me but it still looks very dark on my laptop! I do see a greenish hue though now that I look at the video closer..

 

[Lanie]

It was definitely intended in a much lighter manner than you read it. I've been over some of the latest... heated.. discussions. Janny.

ETA- I just noticed that in a few days, I've been a member of the 'new' FSU for 16 years

We are all getting old. I was 17 when I joined in 2003. I've grown up here!

 

[Seerek]

ETA- I just noticed that in a few days, I've been a member of the 'new' FSU for 16 years

Congratulations, age eligible for Pyeongchang! (I'm 15 in November, so only age eligible for Beijing).

 

[pinky166]

So after WTT I have a couple of questions to muse:

1. Can Karen Chen and Gracie Gold make the same Olympic team?
2. In the event they do, does that mean the 3rd lady will be the only one to compete in the team event?

Chen and Gold have some of the highest scoring potential of the US ladies, but they are also total wild cards at this point. My question is, is there room for 2 wild cards on the Olympic team or does there need to be 2 more stable ladies?

I'm a bit torn but I actually feel the Gracie/Karen situation gives skaters like Mariah, Mirai, and Polina better chances to make the team. And, for whatever reason, I still feel like Ashley will be on the team, simply because she can be relied on to not completely fall apart.

 

[Coco]

For the US, it looks like #1 in mens and dance will get their first pick as to whether or not they want a sub.

Pairs won't have a choice of a sub under any circumstances.

I could see the #1 in mens wanting a sub since men compete right after pairs.

But yeah, whoever the ladies skater is for the US should expect to do the whole thing.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Why do you think Chen and Gold can't make the same Olympic Team .

Any three senior age-eligible US Ladiea who don't need a release from another country, haven't competed for another country internationally in championships for three years before the Olympics, and are chosen by USFS can compete.

Who competes in the team event is a combination of how the disciplines are ranked internally, who wants to compete in the TE, whether they want to do both segments, USFS strong-arming, skaters' on what "prefernce" would be favored by USFS, etc.

The third US Lady given the option -- not necessarily who came in third at Nationals -- would compete in both segments if the first two US Ladies passed on what was available by the time Ladies were taken into consideration.

For the US, it looks like #1 in mens and dance will get their first pick as to whether or not they want a sub.

Pairs won't have a choice of a sub under any circumstances.

I could see the #1 in mens wanting a sub since men compete right after pairs.

But yeah, whoever the ladies skater is for the US should expect to do the whole thing.

The US has only one Pairs spot, so there wouldn't be a choice if the top Dance, Man, and Lady were to choose to do both

In Sochi, Dance and Ladies would have been top-ranked, and D/W chose to do both (as did V/M for Canada). So Ladies and Men split.

I wouldn't underestimate Shpilband or Zoueva wanting the top-ranked Dance team to do both and deny the opportunity to number two to win a medal, so, who knows, it could be two Ladies and two Men again.

 

[Firedancer]

Unless they change how the points are counted for the team event (to rank the teams), I would think USFS would only use Nathan in the short & not allow him to do both. Nathan & dance are their biggest medal hopes. And in Sochi, the team event results were mainly decided on the short programs anyway. There is no reason for him to do both programs.

I don't see any reason Gracie & Karen can't make the team. I just think Gracie has to go back to skating like we are used to seeing her skate. I think Ashley will be on the team. She has been the most consistent US lady, including the only world medalist.

 

[cbd1235]

Good outing from Wagner at the WTT! I think she was a bit hosed in the FS, the 3Lo and 3S calls in the combo made no sense imo, in real-time and slo-mo. She's made a reputation for herself, I hope that doesn't hurt her. That cost her at least 5 points..she would have been very close to the 140 benchmark.

I hope she makes her jumps bigger for next season. They've shrunk this year, it hurts the GOE and the possibility for a clean landing. I am wishing her the best for the Olys !

 

[tony]

Good outing from Wagner at the WTT! I think she was a bit hosed in the FS, the 3Lo and 3S calls in the combo made no sense imo, in real-time and slo-mo. She's made a reputation for herself, I hope that doesn't hurt her. That cost her at least 5 points..she would have been very close to the 140 benchmark.

We saw two different skates then. The jumps were cheated and curled on the landing and I think Ryan Bradley even saw the under-rotation on the Sal earlier today in the NBCSN broadcast IIRC.

http://ibb.co/ieWhbQ - landing of loop
http://ibb.co/j4czO5 - where she should have landed
http://ibb.co/bEUqVk - landing of Sal
http://ibb.co/no3jqk - where she should have landed

Anyways, I know I go on and on about Ashley's jumps being a huge problem but I think it's obvious that the name of the game in ladies skating more than ever before is rewarding the big jumpers with appropriate strong GOE, and that's why I think unless Ashley goes back to the fundamentals over the summer and really starts to get everything squeaky clean, she's going to remain a mid-tier skater.

She (almost) always gets the 'e' on the Lutz, which most other ladies have corrected or made less severe over time, so even her 'clean' version of the jump today earned her less than 4 points, even in the second half of the program. She's automatically putting herself at a 3 point minimum deficit with that, and we all know her spins and footwork usually aren't reaching the highest levels either.

Putting aside the pre-rotation issues with her 3+3 that drive me crazy, the 3T here deserved a < at the least, as well.

 

[VGThuy]

It's be interesting to see the make up of the US ice dance hierarchy after Nationals just to see who will get to do the team event.

 

[pinky166]

I was more asking if USFS would be willing to risk sending 2 inconsistent, unpredictable (albeit with big scoring/placing potential if they hit) skaters to the Olympics. I guess the Olympics doesn't determine World spot and for the following season, though, so they may not care.

 

[Mayra]

I was more asking if USFS would be willing to risk sending 2 inconsistent, unpredictable (albeit with big scoring/placing potential if they hit) skaters to the Olympics. I guess the Olympics doesn't determine World spot and for the following season, though, so they may not care.

It would depend on how well their 2017-2018 season goes heading into nationals, and how well they do at nationals wouldn't you think? Both Gold and Chen have the potential to score very well internationally. A lot can change in the off season.

 

[tony]

I was more asking if USFS would be willing to risk sending 2 inconsistent, unpredictable (albeit with big scoring/placing potential if they hit) skaters to the Olympics. I guess the Olympics doesn't determine World spot and for the following season, though, so they may not care.

But really, who is consistent? Wagner and Nagasu are prone to < galore, Chen and Gold are prone to complete meltdowns, Edmunds is unknown at the moment, and Mariah Bell finished outside the top 10 at Worlds-- mind you, in an event where MANY ladies performed way under their standards.

If there were 6 or so competitive ladies, I wound understand all this 'should they be sent' talk. But at this point, they are all equally a gamble and the best results over the course of next season should determine who goes.

 

[Bellanca]

The results of a season-ending event like the WTT (w/ all due respect) will not have too much of an influence re next season, per se. Federations know that some of the content is watered down, skaters are tired, etc.

 

[berthesghost]

I'm a bit torn but I actually feel the Gracie/Karen situation gives skaters like Mariah, Mirai, and Polina better chances to make the team. And, for whatever reason, I still feel like Ashley will be on the team, simply because she can be relied on to not completely fall apart.

Im not sure I'm onboard with your catagorizations of who's "wild card" and who's "reliable".

Ashley being "the reliable one" says a lot about how unstable us ladies have become. Sure, she's reliably top 10, but back in the 70s-90s someone who's on the podium one minute and down in 7th the next was the wildcard lol.

I seem to be the only one not convinced that polina can be so injured she has to take almost 2 years off and somehow will magically come back in top form, which quite frankly wasn't exactly wow to begin with.

I'm also not convinced that Gracie's Nina Bonina Brown style too-inside-her-head self-sabotage is a minor blip like "boot problems".

Speaking of which, does Karen really have enough of a track record to wear the scarlet letter of "wildcard"? Or Miriah as not one?

And never in my life did I ever think I'd see mirai labeled as the oposite of "wildcard"! Did you mistake her for Rachael flatt?

 

[Firedancer]

I am not convinced Polina is coming back at all. She seems to be having a great time enjoying college and there is nothing wrong with that. But I have not seen anything that would indicate she is coming back or that with a comeback she would be competitive internationally.

 

[tony]

As far as the team event at the Olympics (and the return of the ridiculous, senseless scoring system), you'd have to think that two dance teams are a given (but that race will be fascinating to watch) and then if someone like sentimental favorite Jason Brown (or whoever #3 is) makes the Olympic team, then he might be a likely choice for a split with Nathan Chen so Chen can likely get his (first) Olympic medal and then rest for the individual event. Lots of hypotheticals, but I see it happening no other way.

Even if one lady does compete in both portions of the event, A) they have the most time to recover before the individual event-- 9 days, and B) even a complete meltdown in the short program can probably still beat a good 2-3 ladies minimum that will be in the team Final on their best days.

 

[Fiero425]

I must still be living in the past because before Chen, USFS has been hard to watch; spoiled on Kwan, Cohen, Lipinski, Weir, Eldridge, & Lysacek! It's been weak; even when they excel, it isn't for vey long! My heart breaks for phenoms like Kimmie, Mirai, Alissa, and Carolina Z that were great! Nathan has come out the box and performed admirably internationally! Unless he breaks something, he should be in contention at the Olympics and Worlds for a while! Still waiting for all ladies to try and elevate their event; no quads or even 3A that I can think of since Asada left! I'm babbling; need to get ready for a night out!

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

http://ibb.co/ieWhbQ - landing of loop
http://ibb.co/j4czO5 - where she should have landed
http://ibb.co/bEUqVk - landing of Sal
http://ibb.co/no3jqk - where she should have landed

Damnnnnn, Tony you good.

This helps explain it for me because I too thought Ash was getting hosed....

I hope this gets fixed or remedied.... because I had been worried about her spins (less so her jumps) until this year!

Although Ash hits WONDERFUL positions in her spins sometimes I feel like they are rotating painfully slow.....

I think her free next year needs HIGH energy (kinda like the Moulin Rouge) to help give her push and energy to get those jumps rotated not sleepy music like this Muse piece (although I Love the music, just not for Ash skating to it.)

 

[wickedwitch]

But really, who is consistent? Wagner and Nagasu are prone to < galore, Chen and Gold are prone to complete meltdowns, Edmunds is unknown at the moment, and Mariah Bell finished outside the top 10 at Worlds-- mind you, in an event where MANY ladies performed way under their standards.

Wagner is quite consistent. She may not be consistently excellent, but she is consistently solid, at a minimum.

 

[Frida80]

I am not convinced Polina is coming back at all. She seems to be having a great time enjoying college and there is nothing wrong with that. But I have not seen anything that would indicate she is coming back or that with a comeback she would be competitive internationally.

She keeps posting pics of her skating. She's posted her layback and twizzles. No jumps yet, which makes me worried.

 

[RD]

But really, who is consistent? Wagner and Nagasu are prone to < galore, Chen and Gold are prone to complete meltdowns, Edmunds is unknown at the moment, and Mariah Bell finished outside the top 10 at Worlds-- mind you, in an event where MANY ladies performed way under their standards.

If there were 6 or so competitive ladies, I wound understand all this 'should they be sent' talk. But at this point, they are all equally a gamble and the best results over the course of next season should determine who goes.

Yup, this is where I'm at right now. It's not quite 2014 where Wagner and Gold were the clear top 2 US women - nowadays, it's more a toss-up with much flip-flopping at the top. It really wouldn't be a huge shocker if one or both of AW and GG fell short of Korea...

Ashley being "the reliable one" says a lot about how unstable us ladies have become. Sure, she's reliably top 10, but back in the 70s-90s someone who's on the podium one minute and down in 7th the next was the wildcard lol.

Precisely....tell me about it..!

I will say that in her defense, just about the only lady that can claim true "consistency" in the past 2-3 years is the Russian Medvedeva. Everyone else has been up and down to some degree - the US women in particular have seen some real depths (see Gold 2016-2017; Edmunds injury) as well as a couple bright spots (see Wagner in Boston, Bell at SA last year).

 

[Willin]

She keeps posting pics of her skating. She's posted her layback and twizzles. No jumps yet, which makes me worried.

Where's she posting this? On Instagram there hasn't been a post of her practicing since the week before nationals (announcing she wasn't competing), and on twitter there's nothing more recent other than pictures of skaters she coached for the rinks Holiday/New Year's shows.

I'm not saying I don't think she'll come back, just that I have no idea were she's posting practice footage. Based on her pre-nationals post, it sounds like she wants to come back. She's also keeping up with the USFS-pleasing PR posts (Get Up Day, countdown to Olympics, etc.) Personally, I think she'll finish out the school year before getting back to full on training if she decides to do so. I think Santa Clara is out in late May/Early June, so maybe we'll get more information/posts about skating then.

 

[shuilee]

The Olympic Team event is very strange since SP is significantly more important than the LP. If an American bombs in the SP, you may only get 3 points. Bombing the LP is worst case 6 points.

It'll be interesting to see if USFS goes with "old reliable" Ashley in the SP to play it safe and get 6 or 7 points for the team. Or risk a Gracie Gold/Karen Chen (who could pull a Jeremy Abbott) and get anywhere between 3 points or 8 points.

I assume that's what the OP meant in the Gracie/Karen vs Ashley debate. The Ladies SP and Men SP will largely decide whether USA finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th. I think Long Programs and Ice Dance are non-factors. We're guaranteed to score well there (worst we can do is 6 points even with a disaster).

 

[Frida80]

Where's she posting this? On Instagram there hasn't been a post of her practicing since the week before nationals (announcing she wasn't competing), and on twitter there's nothing more recent other than pictures of skaters she coached for the rinks Holiday/New Year's shows.

I'm not saying I don't think she'll come back, just that I have no idea were she's posting practice footage. Based on her pre-nationals post, it sounds like she wants to come back. She's also keeping up with the USFS-pleasing PR posts (Get Up Day, countdown to Olympics, etc.) Personally, I think she'll finish out the school year before getting back to full on training if she decides to do so. I think Santa Clara is out in late May/Early June, so maybe we'll get more information/posts about skating then.

If your following her, she posted them on her temporary "your story" section that let's you post short videos for your followers that disappear in 24 hours. (Like snap chat) last time she posted a spin a few days ago. Today she's posting pics with friends.

 

[pinky166]

Im not sure I'm onboard with your catagorizations of who's "wild card" and who's "reliable".

Ashley being "the reliable one" says a lot about how unstable us ladies have become. Sure, she's reliably top 10, but back in the 70s-90s someone who's on the podium one minute and down in 7th the next was the wildcard lol.

I seem to be the only one not convinced that polina can be so injured she has to take almost 2 years off and somehow will magically come back in top form, which quite frankly wasn't exactly wow to begin with.

I'm also not convinced that Gracie's Nina Bonina Brown style too-inside-her-head self-sabotage is a minor blip like "boot problems".

Speaking of which, does Karen really have enough of a track record to wear the scarlet letter of "wildcard"? Or Miriah as not one?

And never in my life did I ever think I'd see mirai labeled as the oposite of "wildcard"! Did you mistake her for Rachael flatt?

Ashley IS the reliable one when it comes to US ladies. She's not that consistent but compared to the other US ladies she is probably the most reliable.

Mirai has been more consistent these days. Compared to a Gracie or a Karen I wouldn't consider her a wildcard at this point. Bell has been up and down in the past, but they tend to be less drastic.

As for Karen, she does have enough of a track record to be a wildcard. She's been hot and cold since she was a junior and her good skates can be very good and her bad ones can be disasterous. Even Ryan Bradley admitted this on the NBC broadcast today. I still think she should be considered for a spot on the Olympic team because she's a great talent who has the potential to do well when she hits, but if she winds up on the Olympic team and Gracie does too, I think only 1 lady competes in the team event.

A SP or LP bomb in the team event could cost the USA a medal. China, Italy, or France could feasibly knock the USA off the podium. Which is why I think Ashley most likely makes the US team and does the team event.

 

[pinky166]

Wagner is quite consistent. She may not be consistently excellent, but she is consistently solid, at a minimum.

Agreed.

Wagner's worst SP and worst FS scores of the season at internationals were 64.36 & 117.02

Gracie: 54.04 & 104.98

Karen: 54.60 & 101.03

Mirai: 53.19 & 98.23

Mariah: 55.92 & 105.14

The numbers don't lie, Ashley's seasons worst is over 20 points better than all the other US ladies. It's all relative, but she deserves credit where it's due.

 

[Dobre]

Ashley IS the reliable one when it comes to US ladies. She's not that consistent but compared to the other US ladies she is probably the most reliable.

Methinks Ashley will do the short.

At WTT, there is only one country in between Ashley & Karen. China. Not a huge difference when you look at the results for the free.

Same difference between Nathan & Jason at WTT. But Nathan could win it all. Do we think Ashley could?

It's six of one, half dozen of the other at the moment. Let's wait and see how the landscape changes next season.

 

[pinky166]

Methinks Ashley will do the short.

At WTT, there is only one country in between Ashley & Karen. China. Not a huge difference when you look at the results for the free.

Same difference between Nathan & Jason at WTT. But Nathan could win it all. Ashley probably not. (I see Med skating the free).

It's six of one, half dozen of the other at the moment. Let's wait and see how the landscape changes next season.

I see Med skating both programs? I don't see Russia putting up a Radionova, Pogo, or Sotskova in the team event at all if any of them make the team. Why risk it when they don't have to? They didn't use Sotnikova last time around...The only question would be Zagitova in the SP because she has higher BV with her 3lz-3lo

I bet Jason does the SP and Nathan the FS. I think Canada will use Chan in both programs (a Reynolds/Nguyen/Nadeau/ Messing is too big a risk) and V/M in both programs (unless they use W/P in the SD as a consolation prize since they probably won't win an individual medal). I don't think they risk I/M in the FS, so I/M SP and D/R FS.

Actually. This is all fun. I'm going to start a new thread about predictions for team event lineups so I don't clog up the US ladies thread further with such banter

 

[kwanfan1818]

At WTT, there is only one country in between Ashley & Karen. China. Not a huge difference when you look at the results for the free.

But in the TE with ten skaters, there could also be Kostner between them, particularly if she treats it as a warm-up/nerves shake out. The US will also hope for Germany to beat the Chinese Lady in the SP.

ITA that the SP is going to be the more important, with the stupid points system for the frees.

China is likely to be the country that the US will have to beat for bronze, and every skater between the US and China likely will be significant.

Russia and Canada should be fighting for gold. I think Russia will win gold, but I don't think it will be mathematically over before the last free.