The Dance Hall 9: Bring the Bling or No Beijing 2021-2022

[Karen-W]

Not comparable situations, in my view. Carreira & Ponomarenko are hitting some technical speedbumps as a result of their coaching change, but also seem to be floundering a bit amidst internal competition in the US dance scene.

Lajoie & Lagha are basically just waiting their turn to move up from national #3 to #2 next season and then from #2 to #1 whenever Fournier Beaudry & Sorensen call it quits (or possibly they could get past them before that, who knows?). There is basically no danger of them getting passed by anybody behind them, which will make them Canada's top dance team and thus a significant factor in the international scene for a while yet (whether or not they can make it onto the World podium in the end).

It's not about them waiting for GilPoir or F-B/S to retire so they can move up the ranks to become Canada's #1. There's not much development in them as a team from what I saw of them on the junior level. They're just sort of treading water, IMO, similar to CarPon. And those issues aren't going to suddenly disappear once they become Canada #1 and receive the political push that comes from that position.

I don't know. I think @Karen-W has spotted the same thing in them that I have; when I read her line about stagnation, I thought "Yes, exactly." However, perhaps we're wrong and you're right. If so, I will admit my error and humbly eat crow.

?Glad I'm not alone in feeling this way about them. I am concerned they're going to languish or even get passed up by the next hot junior team that turns senior (D'Alessandro/Waddell), similar to how Soucisse/Firus were surpassed by Lajoie/Lagha. A couple years ago, S/F were interesting and had potential. Now? They've had several seasons where they've struggled to break out and leave anything beyond a bland impression. Same thing is happening with L/L, in my opinion. Maybe next season they'll get more attention and better stuff from IAM but I worry - they still won't be even the #1 Canadian team at IAM, and the focus is going to be on F-B/S to push them as far as possible for Montreal Worlds.

 

[Andrea82]

The Spanish race looks closed unless S/D abort a lift or fall down at the beginning of an element at Europeans.

If Reed doesn't get Lithuanian citizenship, are we looking for 10 Gadbois teams at Olympics? I'm predicting Hawayek/Baker getting US third spot and Muramoto/Takahashi getting Japanese spot.

And I already got one wrong.

Komatsubara/Koleto got the Japanese Olympic spot

 

[Colonel Green]

Really happy for Misato & Tim.

 

[skategal]

There is no way Lajoie/Lagha won’t get the full meal deal treatment from IAM next season especially considering Fournier-Beaudry/Sorensen are unlikely to be around for the full quad.

L/L have mega potential and the interest and support of Skate Canada as “the next big thing.”

Neither of which Soucise/Firus ever enjoyed.

 

[Wyliefan]

And yet Soucisse/Firus, as much as they've struggled and stalled, have three senior international medals, and Lajoie/Lagha have zero so far. You can call it timing or luck or whatever, and no doubt that plays a part. But it still suggests to me that, however successful L/L are domestically, they really need to step up their game if they want to hold their own on the world scene. Politicking can help, certainly, but they'll need to deliver the goods. Time will tell if they can do it.

 

[tony]

Soucisse/Firus need to be a team that go way over the top with something modern and kooky. What do they have to lose by taking a huge chance? Their on-ice personality continues to be very vanilla regardless of the program and almost too.. dainty? It's all nicely done, but it's not standing out and I think that's why they've sunk and sunk in the standings.

L/L have shown they are capable of the theatrics and the odd, different style, and I think that's, in part, they will move way up come 2023.

 

[On My Own]

And just like that, I have zero programs that I'd like to watch in the ID event.

 

[Peepsquick]

And just like that, I have zero programs that I'd like to watch in the ID event.

That bad???

 

[On My Own]

That bad???

Nothing's really appealed to me. I was holding out hope for P/C's FD, but still didn't click for me.

 

[litenkyckling]

And yet Soucisse/Firus, as much as they've struggled and stalled, have three senior international medals, and Lajoie/Lagha have zero so far. You can call it timing or luck or whatever, and no doubt that plays a part. But it still suggests to me that, however successful L/L are domestically, they really need to step up their game if they want to hold their own on the world scene. Politicking can help, certainly, but they'll need to deliver the goods. Time will tell if they can do it.

yeah, I think that because L/L won the JWC people expected a huge rise, but in all honesty that season was a bit of a mess for them and though they had a successful junior career, they didn't ever medal at the JGPF. I do enjoy them and think they're good and they (particularly him) appear to be improving but I'm really not as invested in them as others are.

 

[Karen-W]

And just like that, I have zero programs that I'd like to watch in the ID event.

Ouch. There are some good to great RDs that we'll see in Beijing. PapCiz, HubDon, StepBuk, even SinKats (Drunkle Kats and his "niece" Vika is amusing in its own, cheesy, only in Ice dancing voids way, lol), maybe ChoBates. And let's not forget the MASTERPIECE that is Nazarova/Nikitin's FD!

 

[skategal]

And yet Soucisse/Firus, as much as they've struggled and stalled, have three senior international medals, and Lajoie/Lagha have zero so far. You can call it timing or luck or whatever, and no doubt that plays a part. But it still suggests to me that, however successful L/L are domestically, they really need to step up their game if they want to hold their own on the world scene. Politicking can help, certainly, but they'll need to deliver the goods. Time will tell if they can do it.

Lajoie/Lagha regularly place higher than Soucisse/Firus head-to-head internationally as well as domestically.

And yes, they need to skate for it.

But now we will see what they are really made of once IAM gives them their full attention.

I suspect they may even pass FB/S for Canada number 1 before 2024 (not that I think that is fair but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit.)

 

[On My Own]

@Karen-W I'm totally going to call Katsyalyopov druncle

 

[SDoesNotKnow]

Dai/Kana had the best hip hop RD of the season with the Whackin’ P/C next. Shame they didn’t bring it at Japanese Nationals. It was set up for them to take it.

 

[PRlady]

Dai/Kana had the best hip hop RD of the season with the Whackin’ P/C next. Shame they didn’t bring it at Japanese Nationals. It was set up for them to take it.

I’m a bit surprised Japan didn’t send the two teams to 4Cs to skate off. They were close in results this year.

 

[Colonel Green]

I’m a bit surprised Japan didn’t send the two teams to 4Cs to skate off. They were close in results this year.

They might have done that in another year, but between 4CC being in Europe and all the travel-related issues prompted by YKW, not hard to see why they didn't do that.

 

[allezfred]

I’m a bit surprised Japan didn’t send the two teams to 4Cs to skate off. They were close in results this year.

Japan doesn’t do skate offs at Four Continents, even in a non-Olympic year.

 

[Dobre]

I am very that Muramoto & Takahashi won't be in Beijing. Two terrific programs, and the potential to really mix things up in the midst of the field. (13th-16th?) Just getting established and could have upset teams that people would not predict. Could also have made a big difference in the team event. Or not. I think of Muramoto & Takahashi as kind of like Scimeca-Knierem & Frazier, in that M&T have a higher ceiling than their teammates, but one can't know if they would deliver.

K&K have good programs this year. They defeated Nazarova & Nikitin head-to-head this season, albeit at home in Japan. I haven't seen K&K live since the Anaheim 4CCs, but they were slow, even compared to China's #2. I do think that this season they are looking the best that I've seen them. K&K made the FD at Worlds last year, also right above N&N, which was an achievement for K&K. 19th. France will be down a team. Turkkila & Versluis are stronger this season. Muller & Dieck probably not as strong. Kazakova & Reviya will compete. Taschlerova & Taschler underperformed in the RD last year. It will be a fight again. I'd say K&K's odds of making the cut are as good as most of the others.

 

[Karen-W]

K&K made the FD at Worlds last year, also right above N&N, which was an achievement for K&K. 19th. France will be down a team. Turkkila & Versluis are stronger this season. Muller & Dieck probably not as strong. Kazakova & Reviya will compete. Taschlerova & Taschler underperformed in the RD last year. It will be a fight again. I'd say K&K's odds of making the cut are as good as most of the others.

Plus, it is looking like Reed/Ambrulevicius won't be in Beijing, so that's one less team ahead of K/K from Worlds 2021. I think their odds of making the FD are reasonable.

 

[Dobre]

Plus, it is looking like Reed/Ambrulevicius won't be in Beijing

Yes, le sigh. (I edited my estimate for Muramoto & Takahashi above accordingly).

No Zagorski & Guerrero, probably no Hurtado & Khaliavin, no Muramoto & Takahashi, probably no Reed & Ambrulevicius, and no young French team. The middle of the field is clearing out.

The only teams below #9 and above #18 from last year's Worlds that we can currently expect to see at the Olympics are Wang & Liu, Lajoie & Lagha, and Kaliszek & Spodyriev. The latter--based on their FD result at Nationals--are still working their way back into competitive form. Then #9 from last season being Hawayek & Baker, who are favorites to finish top 3 at Nationals but do have closer at-home competition and need to earn their ticket.



*Regarding the whole where-are-Lajoie-and-Lagha-and-Carreira-and Ponomarenko-relative-to-one-another discussion above, I think the answer right now is working-their-way-up. They split dances at Finlandia this season. Lajoie & Lagha do have the benefit of having been able to jump right into senior internationals in order to gain that level of competition experience. Carreira & Ponomarenko and Green & Parsons and the other young U.S. dancers have the benefit of having spent years in competition battling with one one another in pressure-packed close competitions. Different forms of experience.

 

[Andrea82]

With the field cut to 23, only 3 couples won't make the FD at Olympics.

If Ramanauskaite/Kizala are the Lithuanian entry, we can safely bet they will be one of the three not making the cut. Their RD scores this season are
56.17 NRW Trophy
53.15 Warsaw Cup
52.87 Finlandia Trophy
50.11 Nice Trophy
Average: 53.07

Their top score is worse than the lowest of the other competitors.

Komatsubara/Koleto have only competed in GPs internationally this season with
68.13 NHK
63.56 Skate America
Average: 65.85

Their season average is below some other couples that will fight for 17-22 positions. However, some of those couples competed in some events with panels in very good moods (Petrenko Cup, Mezzaluna Cup, Denis Ten Memorial and Warsaw Cup)....

Muller/Dieck
73.43 Open d'Andorra
69.73 Cup of Austria
68.47 Nebelhorn Trophy
68.35 Finlandia Trophy
63.41 GP Italy
Average: 68.67

Turkila/Versluis
71.92 Finlandia Trophy
71.43 Nice Trophy
70.92 Nebelhorn Trophy
67.26 Lombardia Trophy
64.42 GP France (issues on her twizzles)
Average: 69.19

Kazakova/Reviya
74.98 Mezzaluna Cup
66.95 Nebelhorn Trophy
Average: 69.33

Garabedian/Proulx Senecal
71.70 Budapest Trophy
70.57 Golden Spin
68.80 Lake Placid
68.61 Nebelhorn Trophy
Average: 69.92

Taschlerova/Taschler
73.22 Warsaw Cup
71.91 Pavel Roman Memorial
70.51 Nebelhorn Trophy
68.45 Lombardia Trophy
Average: 71.02

Nazarova/Nikitin
75.46 Denis Ten Memorial
75.17 Victor Petrenko Cup
66.07 NHK
Average: 72.23

 

[Karen-W]

No Zagorski & Guerrero, probably no Hurtado & Khaliavin, no Muramoto & Takahashi, probably no Reed & Ambrulevicius, and no young French team. The middle of the field is clearing out.

Well, DavSmo are going to take ZagGuer's slot, or maybe just below, SmaDia will finish ahead of DavSmo and probably higher than HurKha, so those teams not being present are a wash with regards to how high KoKo can finish in the RD in Beijing; and even though Galyavieva/Thauron aren't there to finish in the lower teens this year, PapCiz will, obviously, finish ahead of KoKo, so there are still two French teams that will place higher. Same situation for MuraTaka at Worlds. I think maybe, in the case of the Russian, Spanish and French teams at both the Olympics and Worlds, it's better to view it more as country by country rather than team by team, as in:

1 through 7
France #1 (PapCiz)
Russia #1 (SinKats)
USA #1 & 2 (HubDon & ChoBates - in some order)
Canada #1 (GilPoir)
Italy #1 (GuiFab)
Russia #2 (StepBuk)

8 through 12
Canada #2 (F-B/S)
Great Britain #1 (FearGib)
Spain #1 (SmaDia or HurKha, pretty interchangeable, IMO)
USA #3 (HawBak)
Russia #3 (DavSmo or KhudaBaz)

13 through 15
China #1 (WangLiu)
Poland #1 (KalSpod)
Canada #3 (LajLag)

16 through 22 - it's really going to suck for 2 of these teams to not make the FD in Beijing because they're all really interesting and deserving in their own ways (and it would particularly suck for Germany, Czech, Georgia & Ukraine to skate their RDs twice and not have a chance to skate their FD at all)
Japan #1 (KoKo)
Germany #1 (MueDie)
Finland #1 (TurkVer)
Czech #1 (Taschlers)
Armenia #1 (GaraPS)
Georgia #1 (KazRev)
Ukraine #1 (NazNik)

23
Lithuania #1 (RamKiz)

 

[Karen-W]

With the field cut to 23, only 3 couples won't make the FD at Olympics.

If Ramanauskaite/Kizala are the Lithuanian entry, we can safely bet they will be one of the three not making the cut. Their RD scores this season are
56.17 NRW Trophy
53.15 Warsaw Cup
52.87 Finlandia Trophy
50.11 Nice Trophy
Average: 53.07

Their top score is worse than the lowest of the other competitors.

Komatsubara/Koleto have only competed in GPs internationally this season with
68.13 NHK
63.56 Skate America
Average: 65.85

Their season average is below some other couples that will fight for 17-22 positions. However, some of those couples competed in some events with panels in very good moods (Petrenko Cup, Mezzaluna Cup, Denis Ten Memorial and Warsaw Cup)....

Muller/Dieck
73.43 Open d'Andorra
69.73 Cup of Austria
68.47 Nebelhorn Trophy
68.35 Finlandia Trophy
63.41 GP Italy
Average: 68.67

Turkila/Versluis
71.92 Finlandia Trophy
71.43 Nice Trophy
70.92 Nebelhorn Trophy
67.26 Lombardia Trophy
64.42 GP France (issues on her twizzles)
Average: 69.19

Kazakova/Reviya
74.98 Mezzaluna Cup
66.95 Nebelhorn Trophy
Average: 69.33

Garabedian/Proulx Senecal
71.70 Budapest Trophy
70.57 Golden Spin
68.80 Lake Placid
68.61 Nebelhorn Trophy
Average: 69.92

Taschlerova/Taschler
73.22 Warsaw Cup
71.91 Pavel Roman Memorial
70.51 Nebelhorn Trophy
68.45 Lombardia Trophy
Average: 71.02

Nazarova/Nikitin
75.46 Denis Ten Memorial
75.17 Victor Petrenko Cup
66.07 NHK
Average: 72.23

You know, I'd almost toss out anything but GPs and, maybe, Nebelhorn, because most of these events did have very generous panels (and everyone was also commenting, at the time, on how stingy the panel at Lombardia was).

In that scenario, the averages would be:

Komatsubara/Koleto - 65.85
Mueller/Dieck - 65.94
Nazarova/Nikitin - 66.07
Kazakova/Reviya - 66.95 (but currently injured enough to have pulled out of their Nov & Dec international assignments)
Turkkila/Versluis - 67.67
Garabedian/Proulx Senecal - 68.61
Taschlerova/Taschler - 70.51

 

[barbarafan]

They CRAWL, let me repeat crawl across the ICE. She has regressed or her injuries are really taking a toll. Everything they do is small. The judges didn't pull D/S up enough. They could have been second. They waited way too late to call Morozov for help. Just my humble opinion of course. But sometimes I wonder if she's in pain.

Wouldn't you be in pain if you were raised by a monster like her. "Stop whining or I'll nail your other foot to the floor"

 

[Immortelle]

I dare a dance team to use the original, proper (Police) version of Roxanne, maybe K/B or M/B

 

[Bigbird]

Wouldn't you be in pain if you were raised by a monster like her. "Stop whining or I'll nail your other foot to the floor"

Oh. Ehem...the advanced crawler here is Stepanova. Forgive me if I was unclear. Davis isn't that bad. Come on now. Let's at least see her at Europeans.

Scary funny though. Yeah.

 

[Bigbird]

I dare a dance team to use the original, proper (Police) version of Roxanne, maybe K/B or M/B

I could see Lop/Bri doing that.

 

[Wyliefan]

I dare a dance team to use the original, proper (Police) version of Roxanne, maybe K/B or M/B

Please, please, no more Roxanne of any kind!!

 

[Bigbird]

Please, please, no more Roxanne of any kind!!

LOL.

 

[Rhumba d’Amour]

Please, please, no more Roxanne of any kind!!

Come now, Green & Parsons could do it and it would be awesome

Seriously—I noticed Davis & Smolkin prominently standing on the sidelines next to the commentary team during the Ladies’ FS and Smolkin was clapping enthusiastically along with the Billie Eilish selection chosen by one of the young competitors, and I thought—I bet we get a Billie Eilish FD from them next season…