The Dance Hall 10: The Saitama Samba 2022-2023

Dobre

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Thoughts on the GPF, anyone?

I'm liking Gilles & Poirier for the RD and Guignard & Fabbri for the FD. Absolutely no one can get away with the fizzling of twizzles.

Question: Which 3 teams are in the 2nd group for the RD there?
 

Karen-W

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Thoughts on the GPF, anyone?

I'm liking Gilles & Poirier for the RD and Guignard & Fabbri for the FD. Absolutely no one can get away with the fizzling of twizzles.

Question: Which 3 teams are in the 2nd group for the RD there?
Isn't starting order based on World Standings, just like the regular GP?
 

Debbie S

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Isn't starting order based on World Standings, just like the regular GP?
No, it's based on order of qualification. The RD start order is H/B, F/G, C/B, FB/S, G/F and G/P.

Given the scores G/P got today, unless the judges give out more realistic GOEs, G/P will win the FD. The RD will probably be closer between them and G/F, and (hopefully, if they skate clean) C/B.
 

Dobre

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Also, the fight for the bronze at the Finland GP had me thinking about who will be fighting for bronze at Europeans. Turkkila & Versluis, Taschlerova & Taschler, and Reed & Abrulevicius, maybe? Maybe a French team could get in there, but I feel like Lopareva & Brissaud don't have the material this season and Demougeot & Le Mercier likely aren't cooked enough yet? Which isn't to say one or two of the previous three teams couldn't fall below them with a glaring mistake. Anyway, unless I'm forgetting someone or Russia pulls out of Ukraine + the ISU lets in the Russian teams, the European bronze seems like it should be an interesting fight. T&K will be at home again, but they aren't so consistent that it feels predictable. A different panel or a different performance under the higher level of pressure could certainly change things up.
 

Dobre

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Also, keeping in mind that Guignard & Fabbri had to go up in the Brits' home territory for their second GP. (Where G&F's FD was still in a class of its own).

Historically speaking, G&P and G&F are too close to call.

And G&F skate at home. Could work both ways. Could give them the lift they need with the audience or too much pressure via expectations.

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I think the second group for the RD is a big plus for Fournier-Beaudry & Sorensen, as the judges have been loving their RD in particular among their two programs. If they deliver it, I think they will be in the final flight. They might even nab a 2nd place after the RD, though I don't think they could hold it without help from one of the other two teams in the FD.
 

cocotaffy

Fetchez la vache... mais fetchez la vache !
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H/B have really lovely skating skills, their one foot step sequence is impressive and their energy in the RD contagious. I don't get the huge score of G/P in comparison to other great performing teams this season. They did skate very well at this event but not 10 points above H/B. Stiil G/P's RD was much sharper and enjoyable this time around. FD was very well skated too but I don't like it, the whole program is overdramatic, kind of cheesy really. I have always preferred G/P's more original projects. I cannot believe G/F are the one pulling the more edgy FD actually, talk about a switcheroo ! There was a time where they would have been the ones skating to Evita. In the GPF, my two favs will be the Danadians and the Italians, bonus points for H/B. I still hope for C/B to give a run for their money to everyone just so that the race gets exciting.
 

Andrea82

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Grimm/Savitskiy beaten by Karl/Hoferichter and Tali/Frasca at NRW Trophy. In the FD, they didn't get the last choreographic element recognized and they had some issues on other elements too (negative GOEs on twizzles and step sequence).

Three GPF finalists competed since the end of the JGP circuit:

Mrazkova/Mrazek scored 171.47 at IceChallenge (RD score higher than in JGPs while FD was lower)
Grimm/Savitskiy 150.31 at NRW Trophy
Fradji/Fourneaux 139.79 at Open d'Andorra (beaten by Tali/Frasca)

The 3 North America based teams didn't compete internationally in the last month (unsurprisingly given the lack of B evens in NA).

Simova/Aksenov debuted as Senior at NRW Trophy. They were well-scored (160.78).
 

skategal

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Gold will be either G/P or G/F whoever skates the best.

Bronze is more open but F/G have the inside track unless C/B can clean up their mistakes and low levels.
 

Belsornia

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Three GPF finalists competed since the end of the JGP circuit:

The 3 North America based teams didn't compete internationally in the last month (unsurprisingly given the lack of B evens in NA).
Bekker/Hernandez are due to compete at the British Championships next weekend. I think it's probably a good idea for them to get their competitive legs back, since it's been a couple of months since their last JGP, and it worked for them earlier in the season when they had a very messy outting at the Britannia Trophy then won JGP silver a few days later. I'm less convinced it's a good strategic choice for Fear/Gibson, who've had a competition heavy autumn, but given the British field they could skate through half their elements and still win.
Also, the fight for the bronze at the Finland GP had me thinking about who will be fighting for bronze at Europeans. Turkkila & Versluis, Taschlerova & Taschler, and Reed & Abrulevicius, maybe? Maybe a French team could get in there, but I feel like Lopareva & Brissaud don't have the material this season and Demougeot & Le Mercier likely aren't cooked enough yet? Which isn't to say one or two of the previous three teams couldn't fall below them with a glaring mistake. Anyway, unless I'm forgetting someone or Russia pulls out of Ukraine + the ISU lets in the Russian teams, the European bronze seems like it should be an interesting fight. T&K will be at home again, but they aren't so consistent that it feels predictable. A different panel or a different performance under the higher level of pressure could certainly change things up.
I would include Lopareva/Brissaud in the mix for Euros bronze - they have the third highest SB of eligible teams despite their not great programmes. Gold and silver look pretty set provided they avoid multiple falls or invalid elements, but the competition for bronze looks really interesting this year and could come down to small details on the day. Then Demougeot/Le Mercier, Kazakova/Reviya and Janse van Rensberg/Steffan in some order. Then there's a big gap in the SBs with a bunch of teams who won't get to compete at Euros, then probably Holbutsova/Bielobrov, Ignateva/Szemko or whoever gets the second Italian spot to round out the top ten.
 

Wyliefan

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Grimm/Savitskiy beaten by Karl/Hoferichter and Tali/Frasca at NRW Trophy. In the FD, they didn't get the last choreographic element recognized and they had some issues on other elements too (negative GOEs on twizzles and step sequence).
Oh dear. Well, better there than at the JGPF!
 

thvu

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Aside from Gilles & Poirier for the gold, I think the rest of the medals are up for grabs. They’re the only team in the +4/+5 GOE tier right now. Ice dance is a game of fractions, and Gilles & Poirier are racking up margins everywhere.

+4/+5 Tier
Gilles & Poirier
- More toward the +4 end of the spread, with +5s here and there. Their only element making way into the over +4.5 GOE category are the choreo steps. In comparison,
Papadakis & Cizeron were often hovering around or over +4.5 GOE.

+3/+4 Tier
Everyone else.
Guignard & Fabbri - They’re scoring on the higher end of the spread, above +3.5 GOE. They’re getting the occasional 5, but near +4 is how they’re scoring for their best elements.
Fournier Beaudry & Sorensen - For most of their elements, they’re scoring just under +3.5 GOE. It’s the choreographic elements where they’re getting near +4 GOE, and above on the choreo steps. If they medal, it will be because of the choreo elements, with the only teams rivaling them being Gilles & Poirier and Fear & Gibson.
Fear & Gibson - Another team hovering around +3.5 GOE on most of their elements. It’s their combination lift in the FD where they’re hitting +4 or above, and their choreo elements that get them over +4 for GOE, and what truly makes them contenders. I expect their GOEs for their steps & twizzles to drop slightly when in competition with all the top teams.
Chock & Bates - Ever since their dumpage after 2016, they’ve become perennial dark horses, always there to take advantage of lackluster programs or mistakes from the favorites. They’ve had 3 hit FDs in a row that has really allowed them to climb back up. They’ve had killer choreographic elements that had kept them in contention and in the conversation. This season, we’re seeing how they score with lackluster programs that don’t put their choreo elements in the +4/+5 range. They need charisma and dynamism, to take a hold of our attention and keep us saying “wow”. Without that, they’re stuck fighting for a medal instead of fighting for the top spot.

Low +3/+4 Tier
Hawayek & Baker
- Scoring more toward +3 GOE on most of their elements. They’re pretty much in their own tier at the bottom of the pack. I don’t see what more they can do to get them solidly in the +4 category aside from going for more acrobatic elements with more stand out transitions.

While I usually would say the GPF will be very telling, post Olympic years can have crazy movement, especially with this many teams seemingly in the same tiers. I just think back to 2007 where 5 teams were more or less in the conversation for the podium and top spot. Denkova & Staviski placed 3rd at Euros with clean skates, and then won Worlds while the Euro Champs didn’t even medal.
 
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Dobre

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I feel like C/B will probably need the time between the GPF and Nationals to work. That 4CCs is a more likely target for them to be competitive.

Had they started with stronger music (in the RD) & a concept that suits their strengths (in the FD), they would be in a better position; but obviously they are working on the FD and can skate better than they have so there is room for improvement at the GPF and I do think they have a shot at at least the bronze.
 
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clairecloutier

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I think you’ve got the order right, @thvu. If the GPF were tomorrow, I’d be predicting G/P gold, G/F silver, FB/S bronze.

And TBH, I think the silver could be more in play for FB/S than the gold is for G/F. As things stand, G/F have almost been beaten twice in the RD. That makes them rather vulnerable IMO. And their free dance is good, but it lacks the emotional content and connection of Evita (which, to me, is G/P’s best work since Vincent).

Unfortunately, it seems clear that Chock/Bates have the least effective & memorable programs out of all the top 6 teams. Will be interesting to see how they respond. In another year, I’d almost wonder if they should bring back the alien/astronaut, but after performing it so many times during the Oly season and then for another 2 months of SOI, that program feels played out, probably.

I really hope that Kaitlin’s knee issue gets better before the GPF. They’ve worked hard to finally make it …. would really be a shame if they had to WD or couldn’t compete at their best.
 

Andrea82

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I guess that the Canadian judge in Dortmund didn't get the "not stingy" memo

Schermata-2022-11-27-alle-19-00-05.png


but at dinner she got it

Schermata-2022-11-27-alle-19-00-14.png
 
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marbri

Hey, Kool-Aid!
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Without having watched the competition I am going out on a limb and saying I think the score they gave the Georgian couple far more realistic than the 76 and 77 the others were throwing out based on what I saw of them this season compared to how other senior teams are scoring :lol:

No idea who the other two teams are 🤷‍♀️
 

Colonel Green

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12,477
Also, the fight for the bronze at the Finland GP had me thinking about who will be fighting for bronze at Europeans. Turkkila & Versluis, Taschlerova & Taschler, and Reed & Abrulevicius, maybe? Maybe a French team could get in there, but I feel like Lopareva & Brissaud don't have the material this season and Demougeot & Le Mercier likely aren't cooked enough yet? Which isn't to say one or two of the previous three teams couldn't fall below them with a glaring mistake. Anyway, unless I'm forgetting someone or Russia pulls out of Ukraine + the ISU lets in the Russian teams, the European bronze seems like it should be an interesting fight. T&K will be at home again, but they aren't so consistent that it feels predictable. A different panel or a different performance under the higher level of pressure could certainly change things up.
I would include Lopareva/Brissaud in the mix for Euros bronze - they have the third highest SB of eligible teams despite their not great programmes. Gold and silver look pretty set provided they avoid multiple falls or invalid elements, but the competition for bronze looks really interesting this year and could come down to small details on the day. Then Demougeot/Le Mercier, Kazakova/Reviya and Janse van Rensberg/Steffan in some order. Then there's a big gap in the SBs with a bunch of teams who won't get to compete at Euros, then probably Holbutsova/Bielobrov, Ignateva/Szemko or whoever gets the second Italian spot to round out the top ten.
Looking at the World standings, the final RD group at Euros will be:

Guignard/Fabbri
Fear/Gibson
Reed/Ambrulevicius
Turkkila/Versluis
Lopareva/Brissaud

Definite advantage for 3-5 versus the Czechs, who will be last to go in the penultimate flight.
 

yurokis40

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Gilles and Poirier and fournier beaudry sorensen need to skip 4cc this year its in the US backyard, good chance the caller at the event will be american who will try and lowball our teams heading into worlds, 4cc is a minor competition better to fully concentrate on worlds.
 

skatingguy

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Gilles and Poirier and fournier beaudry sorensen need to skip 4cc this year its in the US backyard, good chance the caller at the event will be american who will try and lowball our teams heading into worlds, 4cc is a minor competition better to fully concentrate on worlds.
Really? Four Continents being in the US is guaranteed to be good for US ice dancers. Hubbell/Donohue would like to have a word.
 

yurokis40

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Really? Four Continents being in the US is guaranteed to be good for US ice dancers. Hubbell/Donohue would like to have a word.
Why take the risk P&C skipped euros and suffered no consequence at the olympics, plus the top north american dance teams skip it anyway in an olympic year it just does not have the prestige of euros, plus it gives the chance to a team like Lauriaut and Legac to showcase their programs again.
 

Colonel Green

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Gilles and Poirier and fournier beaudry sorensen need to skip 4cc this year its in the US backyard, good chance the caller at the event will be american who will try and lowball our teams heading into worlds, 4cc is a minor competition better to fully concentrate on worlds.
When you have the hot hand you never show weakness or fear. 4CC will presumably be a friendly environment for C/B, but if they don’t go it’s worse for them.
 

litenkyckling

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Why take the risk P&C skipped euros and suffered no consequence at the olympics, plus the top north american dance teams skip it anyway in an olympic year it just does not have the prestige of euros, plus it gives the chance to a team like Lauriaut and Legac to showcase their programs again.
I mean P/C were 4 time world champions at that point and had the highest scores going into the second half of the season, so er not quite the same situation.
 

yurokis40

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When you have the hot hand you never show weakness or fear. 4CC will presumably be a friendly environment for C/B, but if they don’t go it’s worse for them.
No its not, the judges proved they don`t care when P&C skipped euros in eastern europe S&K territory. Let chock and bates win there in a diminished field, US callers proved they can lowball a rival team when they want ie Blumberg, Rettstatt.
 

Dobre

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Polibina & Golovishnikov had a 56.04 in Budapest and a 63.62 in the RD at home at Warsaw Cup.

----

Since this was Simova & Aksenov's senior debut, we'll just have to wait & see.
 

Colonel Green

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No its not, the judges proved they don`t care when P&C skipped euros in eastern europe S&K territory. Let chock and bates win there in a diminished field, US callers proved they can lowball a rival team when they want ie Blumberg, Rettstatt.
P/C skipped Euros because of YKW.
 

Dobre

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I expect everyone who can to go to Four Continents;). So many good reasons . . .

The North American-based dance teams don't have to fly halfway across the world.

This is the year for moving up and you have to show up in order to do that.

The first chance for F-B&S to have a shot at a major international medal. First chance for H&B since 2018. Best chance G&P have had to win the event and/or a major international title. Best chance C&B have to show progress & set themselves up for Worlds.

World-Standing Points heading into Worlds.

$
 
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manhn

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Piper and Paul did win 4CC…in 2014. But that win really helped them at Worlds later that season. :)
 

clairecloutier

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