Or the end of January once there is a change in US leadership...
Even if some sort of peace deal were to be announced by the end of January or mid-February, that would be after the last competitions were held for skaters to achieve CTES mins. I don't know that I think the ISU or IOC will move THAT quickly to allow RUS/BLR back into international competition - especially because there are some problematic skaters who have been pro-war. The deadline for Worlds entries is Feb 26th. I suspect the ISU will just go with a "RUS/BLR are allowed back in on July 1, 2025" if there is a peace deal anytime within the next 6 months.
I don't think there's any reason to document ALL the skaters who did anything related to pro-war propaganda, fwiw, because it's 100% possible they didn't know what they were doing. The major ones like Kondratiuk, Galliamov, Valieva are fair game, though.
Valieva is definitely not going to be allowed. She's not eligible to compete at the OQE due to the doping ban. Kondratiuk also isn't going to be eligible because of his clear ties to the Russian military. Galliamov is a little more interesting. I was under the impression he'd made some pro-war statements early on, but...
Interesting TSL live today with Maia. She seems very certain that, apart from that Plushenko show in Tula in April 2022 and the Olympic medalists meet & greet with Putin post-Beijing, Mishina/Galliamov have been very neutral about the war. She and DL both compared that post-Beijing Putin meet & greet to the US Olympic team visits to the White House and she mentioned those have been a routine thing for Russian athletes for several Olympic cycles now, which I believe is accurate. In that regard, and knowing it's a pretty common thing in many countries for the Olympic delegations to have a congratulatory gathering with their head of state - at the White House, Buckingham Palace, etc, it seems fair to conclude the ISU & IOC will not view that as an explicit pro-war action.
With respect to the Tula show as well as skaters who participate in any Navka, Averbukh or Plushenko shows... Maia noted, as I did earlier on both X and here - the ISU docs do NOT mention show participation as a disqualifier. She also stated that almost all ice shows in Russia receive some sort of government grant - but that these grants aren't necessarily tied to the military. I'm with DL in thinking that it's a stretch to claim that taking Navka's money is not explicitly profiting from the war, etc, but I suppose the argument could be made that those tours existed prior to the war, etc. Either way, the ISU docs don't mention shows, so one has to think that unless the show had explicit pro-war group numbers, etc, then it's not going to be a problem.
Isn't he sanctioned by Ukraine for being pro-war?
All of the skaters who participated in the Tula show are sanctioned by Ukraine, even the ones who publicly disavowed it right away because it was turned into a pro-war rally by Plushenko at the last minute and the skaters were basically told they'd be in breach of their contract if they didn't participate. Tuktamysheva and Boikova/Kozlovskii came out within hours of the show's conclusion explaining that the pro-war rally part had been sprung on them at the last minute. It's my belief that those skaters who disavowed the pro-war rally immediately afterwards and who have not expressed any pro-war sentiments at all are going to be fine.
There are other issues for Tukt and BoiKoz, though.
BoiKoz are with Team Eteri and there's the question of what exactly constitutes "association with a person who has received a doping violation finding." Is it enough of a taint that they're at Eteri's rink and that, up until last February, Valieva was training there also? It's certainly going to be an issue for everyone applying as "Support Personnel". Maia & DL didn't get into the double standard that exists with Eteri being allowed to coach Egadze or Grassl being allowed to compete after going to Eteri in 2023. BoiKoz's other challenge is that they were really messy at RusNats and, to paraphrase Maia, were basically gifted the silver after a terrible SP & less than perfect FS. At best, BoiKoz are probably going to the be the Substitute nominee while MishGal are the AIN nominee.
Tukt is not in competition shape - she's been doing shows - and her 3A seems to be MIA. She'd be the best choice, PR-wise, but the question is whether or not she'd be competitive for a medal. Right now, she's definitely NOT. Could she get in shape by next fall and, more importantly, remain in shape through Feb 2026? She's already 28, so, that's another factor to consider. It would, though, be a great story for the women's discipline to have Kaori, Amber, Liza & Loena competing in Milano-Cortina.
Other women who are options - Adelia Petrosian - probably not because she's Team Eteri, plus she's at that age where the quads & 3As start to disappear for skaters who acquired those elements in their early teens. Anna Frolova is coached by Rukavitsin and doesn't have the potential doping association to drag her down, plus having a coach who has been interacting & maintaining relationships with the international skating community & successfully coached Gubanova to a Euros title with a different style/approach to skating than Team Eteri's jumping bean/frantic choreo may make Frolova more appealing to western audiences. Alina Gorbacheva was the other woman discussed - also not part of a known pro-war supporter (Plushenko) or dealing with a potential doping violation skating school.
Men - Flat out, Petr Gumennik should be the AIN nominee - he's with Moskvina's school & hasn't done or said anything remotely pro-war - in fact, I got the distinct impression from Maia without her saying it, that he's actually anti-war. He also has had coaching from Raf, so there's a positive relationship there to his advantage. The only other man she mentioned was Vladislav Dikidzhi, another St Petersburg skater. She thought the potential of a 4A faceoff between Ilia & Vladislav could be good marketing. Seems like those two are the leading options for the men.
Ice Dance - Zhulin is highly problematic and isn't going to be approved as Support Personnel for any team. Stepanova/Bukin... She didn't seem to rule them out completely - the federal speech they attended last spring is akin to the US' State of the Union, which often features guests from all walks of life in the gallery, for both Republicans & Democrats trying to score political points. Their other problem is that Bukin was denied accreditation for the 2018 Olympics due to the unspecified potential doping issue. There was no discussion of Khudaiberdieva/Bazin - I've seen some discussion on X that her dad is either high up in the military or a military contractor that's earned a LOT of $$ from the war. If that's the case, she's probably not going to be approved since she's clearly benefiting from military spending. It seems like the next three teams may be the ones vying for the AIN & substitute spots - Khavronina/Naryzhnyy, Kaganovskaya/Nekrasov and Pasechnik/Cirisano.