Just for fun I wanted to see how many reigning world champions have won the Olympic gold the year after their world title. I went back to 75 worlds and 76 Olympics, and found that 50% of them won the gold. Majority of those who missed the gold won Silver, and some won Bronze and in rare cases did not medal at all. Can we use this in predicting the 2018 Olympic gold medallists (team golds are not included). Sorry this data is hard to read. I copied it from Excel and it didn't space correctly. Saving it as a word document made it even worse. I will edit it later to make it easier to read.
(ETA: I tried to edit and manually create spaces, but it didn't work)
World Champ year; Skater(s); Oly Year ; Medal won; OGM Winner
1975 Dianne de Leeuw 76 Silver Hamill
1975 Volkov 76 5th Curry
1975 Moiseeva-Minenkov 80 Silver Pakhomova-Gorshkov
1979 Babilonia-Gardner 80 WD Rodnina-Zaitsev
1979 Kovalev 80 WD Cousins
1979 Fratianne 80 Silver Poetschz(sp?)
1983 Sumners 84 Silver Witt
1987 Orser 88 Silver Boitano
1991 Browning 92 None Petrenko
1991 Dushenays 92 Silver Klimova-Ponomarenko
1993 Browning 94 None Urmanov
1993 Usova-Zhulin 94 Silver Grishchuk-Platov
1993 Brasseur-Eisler 94 Bronze Gordeeva-Grinkov
1997 Stojko 98 Silver Kulik
2001 Plushenko 2002 Silver Yagudin
2001 Kwan 2002 Bronze Hughes
2001 FusarPoli-Margaglio 2002 Bronze Anisina-Peizerat
2005 Lambiel 2006 Silver Plushenko
2005 Slutskaya 2006 Bronze Arakawa
2009 Domnina-Shabalin 2010 Bronze Virtue-Moir
2013 Kim 2014 Silver Sotnikova
2013 Chan 2014 Silver Hanyu
Current world champions:
2017 Hanyu 2018 ?
2017 Medvedeva 2018 ?
2017 Sui-Han 2018 ?
2017 Virtue-Moir 2018 ?
11 Olympics 44 gold medals
22 Missed by Reigning World Champions
For the non-OGM skaters:
Medals won at Oly
Pairs: 2 (1B, 1WD)
Ice dance: 5 (3 S, 2B)
Men : 9 (6S)
Ladies: 6 (4S, 2B)
So 50% of them missed the Olympic gold. However, pairs champions have had a lot of success at the Olympics.
Ice dance has become more unpredictable in recent years.
The singles seem to miss more often, and men seem to miss the most.
So I would say the odds are in Sui-Han's favor, and Hanyu has the biggest odds against him. If Medvedeva was not injured, I would have said the odds still favored her. If V&M had not returned, the odds would have been in P&C's favor. Now I would say 50-50 in ice dance.
(ETA: I tried to edit and manually create spaces, but it didn't work)
World Champ year; Skater(s); Oly Year ; Medal won; OGM Winner
1975 Dianne de Leeuw 76 Silver Hamill
1975 Volkov 76 5th Curry
1975 Moiseeva-Minenkov 80 Silver Pakhomova-Gorshkov
1979 Babilonia-Gardner 80 WD Rodnina-Zaitsev
1979 Kovalev 80 WD Cousins
1979 Fratianne 80 Silver Poetschz(sp?)
1983 Sumners 84 Silver Witt
1987 Orser 88 Silver Boitano
1991 Browning 92 None Petrenko
1991 Dushenays 92 Silver Klimova-Ponomarenko
1993 Browning 94 None Urmanov
1993 Usova-Zhulin 94 Silver Grishchuk-Platov
1993 Brasseur-Eisler 94 Bronze Gordeeva-Grinkov
1997 Stojko 98 Silver Kulik
2001 Plushenko 2002 Silver Yagudin
2001 Kwan 2002 Bronze Hughes
2001 FusarPoli-Margaglio 2002 Bronze Anisina-Peizerat
2005 Lambiel 2006 Silver Plushenko
2005 Slutskaya 2006 Bronze Arakawa
2009 Domnina-Shabalin 2010 Bronze Virtue-Moir
2013 Kim 2014 Silver Sotnikova
2013 Chan 2014 Silver Hanyu
Current world champions:
2017 Hanyu 2018 ?
2017 Medvedeva 2018 ?
2017 Sui-Han 2018 ?
2017 Virtue-Moir 2018 ?
11 Olympics 44 gold medals
22 Missed by Reigning World Champions
For the non-OGM skaters:
Medals won at Oly
Pairs: 2 (1B, 1WD)
Ice dance: 5 (3 S, 2B)
Men : 9 (6S)
Ladies: 6 (4S, 2B)
So 50% of them missed the Olympic gold. However, pairs champions have had a lot of success at the Olympics.
Ice dance has become more unpredictable in recent years.
The singles seem to miss more often, and men seem to miss the most.
So I would say the odds are in Sui-Han's favor, and Hanyu has the biggest odds against him. If Medvedeva was not injured, I would have said the odds still favored her. If V&M had not returned, the odds would have been in P&C's favor. Now I would say 50-50 in ice dance.
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