Reigning world champions that did not win the OGM

Vash01

Fan of Yuzuru, T&M, P&C
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Just for fun I wanted to see how many reigning world champions have won the Olympic gold the year after their world title. I went back to 75 worlds and 76 Olympics, and found that 50% of them won the gold. Majority of those who missed the gold won Silver, and some won Bronze and in rare cases did not medal at all. Can we use this in predicting the 2018 Olympic gold medallists (team golds are not included). Sorry this data is hard to read. I copied it from Excel and it didn't space correctly. Saving it as a word document made it even worse. I will edit it later to make it easier to read.

(ETA: I tried to edit and manually create spaces, but it didn't work)

World Champ year; Skater(s); Oly Year ; Medal won; OGM Winner

1975 Dianne de Leeuw 76 Silver Hamill
1975 Volkov 76 5th Curry
1975 Moiseeva-Minenkov 80 Silver Pakhomova-Gorshkov
1979 Babilonia-Gardner 80 WD Rodnina-Zaitsev
1979 Kovalev 80 WD Cousins
1979 Fratianne 80 Silver Poetschz(sp?)
1983 Sumners 84 Silver Witt
1987 Orser 88 Silver Boitano
1991 Browning 92 None Petrenko
1991 Dushenays 92 Silver Klimova-Ponomarenko
1993 Browning 94 None Urmanov
1993 Usova-Zhulin 94 Silver Grishchuk-Platov
1993 Brasseur-Eisler 94 Bronze Gordeeva-Grinkov
1997 Stojko 98 Silver Kulik
2001 Plushenko 2002 Silver Yagudin
2001 Kwan 2002 Bronze Hughes
2001 FusarPoli-Margaglio 2002 Bronze Anisina-Peizerat
2005 Lambiel 2006 Silver Plushenko
2005 Slutskaya 2006 Bronze Arakawa
2009 Domnina-Shabalin 2010 Bronze Virtue-Moir
2013 Kim 2014 Silver Sotnikova
2013 Chan 2014 Silver Hanyu

Current world champions:
2017 Hanyu 2018 ?
2017 Medvedeva 2018 ?
2017 Sui-Han 2018 ?
2017 Virtue-Moir 2018 ?

11 Olympics 44 gold medals
22 Missed by Reigning World Champions

For the non-OGM skaters:
Medals won at Oly
Pairs: 2 (1B, 1WD)
Ice dance: 5 (3 S, 2B)
Men : 9 (6S)
Ladies: 6 (4S, 2B)

So 50% of them missed the Olympic gold. However, pairs champions have had a lot of success at the Olympics.

Ice dance has become more unpredictable in recent years.
The singles seem to miss more often, and men seem to miss the most.

So I would say the odds are in Sui-Han's favor, and Hanyu has the biggest odds against him. If Medvedeva was not injured, I would have said the odds still favored her. If V&M had not returned, the odds would have been in P&C's favor. Now I would say 50-50 in ice dance.
 
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Between Scott Hamilton and Evan Lysacek, no reigning mens world champ won O's (and 4 times of those 6 were Canadian men). It was the 'curse'.

Of the last few Olympics, usually just 1 of the medallist from the previous worlds has been on the podium (occasionally two). Other than 1997 Worlds/1998 O's, 2005 Worlds/2006 O's, and 2013 Worlds/2014 O's, you'd have to go back to the 1927 Worlds/1928 O's to find an Olympic champion who was not on the podium at Worlds the previous year.

So I think it's safe to say the men's Olympic champion will be one of Hanyu, Uno or Jin. (I'd laugh with glee if Boyang won).
 
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A few observations:

When you see so many reigning world champions win at least a bronze, and in many cases silver, it strikes me as very odd that Kurt Browning did not win a single Olympic medal, despite being in that favorable position twice. Just bad luck? I know first time he had an injury. Second time, did he put too much pressure on himself?

1979 world champs in pairs and men seem like the unluckiest; both had to withdraw from the 80 Olympics.

It seems higher the risk level, lesser the chances of the reigning world champion to win the Olympic gold. Men are always pushing the envelope. Lately the ice dancers have pushed the difficulty level up, so may be that's why we see fewer world champions winning the OGM. From 90 to present, 4 ice dance teams didn't win the OGM. Prior to that, only one did not win (M&M).

When figures were a part of the sport, perhaps it was easier to get back to back wins? Figures are not easy at all, but those who were good at them, always did well it seems, but when it comes to jumps, even the best jumpers can fall.

Somehow pairs almost always seem to come through at the Olympics. I don't understand that. They don't do 7-9 difficult jumps; just 2 throws and 2 sbs jump sequences (of course a lot of difficult lifts). May be a lower number of risky elements helps?

Brasseur & Eisler can claim (and Lloyd did) that without the returning champions, they would have won the OGM.

I have purposely avoided the 2001 pairs world champions and the 2002 Olympics results, to avoid derailing the discussion.
 
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Between Scott Hamilton and Evan Lysacek, no reigning mens world champ won O's (and 4 times of those 6 were Canadian men). It was the 'curse'.

Of the last few Olympics, usually just 1 of the medallist from the previous worlds has been on the podium (occasionally two). Other than 1997 Worlds/1998 O's, 2005 Worlds/2006 O's, and 2013 Worlds/2014 O's, you'd have to go back to the 1927 Worlds/1928 O's to find an Olympic champion who was not on the podium at Worlds the previous year.

So I think it's safe to say the men's Olympic champion will be one of Hanyu, Uno or Jin. (I'd laugh with glee if Boyang won).

You forgot Nathan Chen who has beaten Hanyu this year, and Javier Fernandez who won the worlds twice. I wouldn't count out Chan either, though he seems like a longer shot to me, despite his brilliant skating skills. Jumps are the name of the game in Men's.
 
50% is a pretty good ratio considering the immense pressure on a World Champion at the Olympics, and that not all reigning World Champions are dominant anyway. I think what is interesting about the 22 who didnt win gold is to break it down and see how surprising it was/wasnt in each case.

76- DeLeeuw. Not really surprising. She won the 75 worlds largely since Hamill and Errath made mistakes. Her figures were not dominant enough to get much of a lead, in fact she was behind Hamill in figures in Innsbruck it turned out, and her free skating was the weakest of the top 3 contenders if they were all on.

76- Volkov. Not surprising. The mens was considered wide open but Curry looked the favorite after Europeans, and Kovalev was generally the top Russian, and Cranston and Hoffmann were huge contenders too. Volkov's strength was figures, but he usually wasnt dominant enough to get a big lead, 75 worlds was an exception he did, and his free skating was both bland and extremely inconsistent and prone to meltdowns, again 75 worlds a rare occasion he held it together. Overrated Kovalev was the Russian fed fave too, even with Volkov as World Champ.

76- Moiseeva/Minenkov- Not surprising at all. They won worlds in 75 since P&G were out, and few expected they could beat them at the Games when they returned.

80- Babilonia/Gardner- Even had they skated it would not have been too surprising IF they were unable to beat out Rodnina/Zaitsev for the gold.

80- Kovalev- Not surprising. The mens was wide open with 4 or 5 major contenders, similar to 76. Kovalev's strength was figures and his free skating had fallen further behind the others and was always inconsistent. He won the 79 worlds in large part since Ticker, Hoffmann, Cousins all blew their short programs. Furthermore he was skating awful that season so far and had been 3rd at the Europeans where he skated very weakly.

84- Sumners- Not too surprising. She was at best a slight and shaky favorite for gold going in. Witt and even Zayak were thought to be stronger challengers. She had beautiful artistry but was a fragile and inconsistent jumper, and had not been skating as well this season as she had in 83 at Nationals and worlds, making her clearly vurnerable. Witt's figures improvement (atleast in placings) was also bad news and a huge worry for her.

88- Orser- This was a surprise. Orser seemed to have the momentum and the recent edge in the match up, and was in his home country.

92- Browning- With his back injury not too surprising he didnt win gold, but his meltdown and 6th place was a big surprise.

92- Duchensays- Probably a surprise since they were in their home country and it might have been predicted the judges would never deny them gold coming in as reigning World Champs in France if they stood up. K&P were simply too good and superior at this event to be denied in the end. Duchensays had been out all season, and also had to scrap and come up with new programs relatively last minute so they were vurnerable too, especialy with K&P looking better than they had last season clearly.

94- Browning- Probably an upset Browning didnt win, and more than 92 as he was healthy. Not too huge though as you had Boitano, Petrenko, Stojko, even Scott Davis (due to the huge win over Boitano at Nationals) all as major contenders, and Browning had a bit of a shaky year and bad Canadians where he lost to Stojko. The bigger surprise was who did win, Urmanov.

94- Usova/Zhulin- Not a big surprise at all. Their skating was clearly suffering from their personal problems, their free program was poorly received by judges and fans alike all season and at the recent Europeans (even though they only lost winning there by a fluke ordinal flip), and you had the legendary GOATs Torvill & Dean back, and Gritschuk & Platov on the rise and seemingly gaining favor with the Russian fed somehow over U&Z. I dont even know if they were the favorites for gold in Lillehammer at that point, although certainly a contender for gold still.

94- Brasseur/Eisler- Obviously not surprising. Most figured Gordeeva/Grinkov would likely win. Miskutienok/Dmitrov had a mediocre season and a poor Europeans, and they had always comfortably beaten out Shishkova/Naumov, so it might be surprising they ended up where they were, barely even winning the bronze and nearly not medalling despite a nearly clean competition. The Olympic pairs this years just ended up fierce and specatular.

98- Stojko- A bit of a surprise. Even though Kulik had won the Grand Prix final, with his track record few thought he would put it all together under Olympic pressure to win. Stojko had generally been the dominant skater of the quad, and is typically the toughest under pressure.

2002- Plushenko- Not much of a surprise. Plushenko and Yagudin were pretty much neck to neck going in. A surprise only it was such a blowout, which started with Plushenko falling in the short program to all but take himself out any gold medal chance.

2002- Kwan- I guess a surprise since she was in her home country, her biggest rival Irina had not put it together at worlds yet to win and was coming off a couple recent poor performances while Michelle seemed to be rounding into form by Nationals. An even bigger surprise it was Sarah Hughes who beat her and won.

2002- Fusar Poli & Margalio- Not a surprise. They were 4th at the Grand Prix final and lost to Anissina & Peizerat at Europeans. A&P looked to be the favorites going into SLC to win, and several others were close behind F-P&M at that point too.

2006- Lambiel- No surprise obviously.

2006- Slutskaya- A surprise as she would have been the favorite, especialy with Asada out. Not maybe a huge one though as she started showing cracks entering the Games, and of course her Olympic and big event history of missed opportunities.

2010- Domnina & Shabalin- Lot really a surprise. How they looked at Europeans where they lost both the OD and FD to the Italians, made it clear they would be in tough to win in Vancouver and might be fighting just to medal.

2014- Kim- Huge surprise, particularly who she lost to.

2014- Chan- Minor surprise. I think even the Grand Prix final Chan looked to be the favorite for gold going into the Games. Hanyu was gaining momentum though, and after team events and the short program he became the favorite.

Honestly of the whole group there are really only a handful of surprises. Usually when the reigning World Champion was supposed to win they did.
 

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